EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Need advice from experts

I have a PD of Nov 2010 and have received my EAD/AP. My wife is a dependent application and she also has received her EAD/AP. She is currently working on a H1-B visa which expires end of 2013. Her employer is willing to separately file for her Green Card, however, she is struggling to obtain experience letter, et al from her older employer. Also there's a cost associated with filing a separate Green Card for her. Do you think she even needs to file a separate Green Card or can she continue to be on EAD? My fear is if our I-485 application gets denied for some reason (not sure if that even happens) or if my Company lays me off, etc. what would happen to her application? We have a house and want to be sure at least one of us can work full time :)

Any advice will be much appreciated....we want to take a calculated risk.

Many thanks,

KingJeremy

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Originally Posted by kingjeremy

Need advice from experts

I have a PD of Nov 2010 and have received my EAD/AP. My wife is a dependent application and she also has received her EAD/AP. She is currently working on a H1-B visa which expires end of 2013. Her employer is willing to separately file for her Green Card, however, she is struggling to obtain experience letter, et al from her older employer. Also there's a cost associated with filing a separate Green Card for her. Do you think she even needs to file a separate Green Card or can she continue to be on EAD? My fear is if our I-485 application gets denied for some reason (not sure if that even happens) or if my Company lays me off, etc. what would happen to her application? We have a house and want to be sure at least one of us can work full time :)

Any advice will be much appreciated....we want to take a calculated risk.

Many thanks,

KingJeremy

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Nov 2010 PD ? Is that a typo ?

Anyway to answer your question - If her company is willing to sponsor her GC might as well do it. I get the sense you want to be really safe due to the house situation. So I'd wouldn't worry about the few hundred dollars to be safe.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bieber,

You cannot currently apply for renewal more than 120 days from expiration. If you do, you risk rejection of the application.

For example, from this document

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awesome, thanks Spec

EB3-EB2 porting approvals from trackitt in last 3 years, these are approvals for that FY with PD< PD of previous FY.

FY---------Previous FY Sept VB EB2PD-----Trackitt EB2 approvals with PD<EB2PD(which should be EB3-EB2)
2010---------JAN 2005------------------------------257
2011---------MAY 2006-----------------------------237
2012---------APR 2007-----------------------------286
(April)

FY2012 till April has 286 it would have been more if there was no internal retrogression starting April. Trackitt porting approvals doubled in FY2012 compared to FY2011.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...rmancedata.pdf

LOL! At this rate we may see a cut off for EB5 soon!

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Originally Posted by kd2008

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...rmancedata.pdf

LOL! At this rate we may see a cut off for EB5 soon!

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kd,

Unfortunately, that is just a re-publication of the first page of more comprehensive statistics that were released previously after the May 1, 2012 EB5 Stakeholder Meeting.

Crucially, it does not tell us how many EB5 visas were used to the end of Q2.

We know from a previous USCIS document (last page) that 2,364 visas were used by EB5 in FY2012 up to January 17, 2012 compared to 3,463 for all of FY2011. EB5 can probably (hopefully) stay within the 10k for this year.

At best, I don't think we can rely on any spillover from EB5 beyond FY2013 and at worst we have already seen the last in FY2011.

The next EB5 Stakeholder Meeting is a teleconference only event on July 26,2012, but that is focussed on Regional Centers, so there may not be a new release of EB5 Statistics.

The next EB5 Stakeholder Meeting focussing on General EB5 issues isn't scheduled until 23 October, 2012.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Nov 2010 PD ? Is that a typo ?

Anyway to answer your question - If her company is willing to sponsor her GC might as well do it. I get the sense you want to be really safe due to the house situation. So I'd wouldn't worry about the few hundred dollars to be safe.

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Thanks Vizcard. More than the money it is the pain of getting special skills letters since all of her supervisors have quit and are not being too responsive about writing this letter.

Was a typo indeed, PD is Nov 2009.

I have attempted some prediction numbers for EB2I in light of June 28th AILA report and other people comments. Looks very disappointing overall. I hope it gets better in FY 2013 in terms of more spillover and less upgarde.

EB2I predictions for 2 yrs, FY 2013, 2014

Required # of Visa numbers::
aug 2007 - dec 2007 ---- 4k + 1.5k upgrade = 5.5k
jan 2008- mar 2008 --- 4.5 (1.5*3)k + 2k upgrade = 6.5k


Hopeful scenario
If average eb2I spillover in 2013 =8k ;;;8k + 3k = 11k
so priority date in Sep 2013 :--->march2008

apr2008-sep 2008 ---- 7(1.2*6)k + 4k upgrade = 11k

so priority date in Sep 2014:--->sep2008


Pessimistic Scenario--

If average eb2I spillover in 2013 = 3k ;;;3k + 3k = 6k
so priority date in sep 2013 ---> oct 2007

Nov 2007 - May 2008---- 7(1.2*6)k + 4k upgrade = 11k

so priority date in sep 2014:--->May 2008

Predictions on murthy.com

http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/06/cut...retrogression/

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Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid

Predictions on murthy.com

http://www.murthy.com/2012/07/06/cut...retrogression/

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What's interesting is that for the first time, I'm seeing actual porting numbers (assuming these are accurate):

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Originally Posted by Murthy

The DOS estimates that EB3 to EB2 filings by those hoping to upgrade their cases will account for usage of 10-15,000 visa numbers annually. Most of these are in the worldwide category. In FY12, India used 2,800 EB2 numbers via upgrade cases, and China utilized 500 visa numbers in this manner. The USCIS previously characterized the number of such cases as insignificant.

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So WW porting demand is a lot higher than IC porting, which is lower than I expected. About a quarter to a third of the quota is being consumed by porting! Those are 10-15k numbers that non-porting EB2-IC could be receiving every year. So even with high demand from EB2-IC, EB2IC could have been current were it not for porting. They need to stop letting porters use their old PDs.

I wonder if USCIS policy with respect to porting and retaining PD would have been different if they'd realized just how many cases of porting there were.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

What's interesting is that for the first time, I'm seeing actual porting numbers (assuming these are accurate):

So WW porting demand is a lot higher than IC porting, which is lower than I expected. About a quarter to a third of the quota is being consumed by porting! Those are 10-15k numbers that non-porting EB2-IC could be receiving every year. So even with high demand from EB2-IC, EB2IC could have been current were it not for porting. They need to stop letting porters use their old PDs.

I wonder if USCIS policy with respect to porting and retaining PD would have been different if they'd realized just how many cases of porting there were.

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The DOS estimates that EB3 to EB2 filings by those hoping to upgrade their cases will account for usage of 10-15,000 visa numbers annually. Most of these are in the worldwide category.

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In FY12, India used 2,800 EB2 numbers via upgrade cases, and China utilized 500 visa numbers in this manner. The USCIS previously characterized the number of such cases as insignificant.

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I don't think the porting number is any where close to what they have said.

If it is true we can subtract half of the PERM approvals from ROW-M-P for FY2011 and first half of FY2012 towards porting.

This could also mean porting is at it's peak and very low ROW EB2/EB3 demand for future based on USCIS-I-485 inventory: May 2012 and recent demand data for EB3ROW.

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Originally Posted by veni001

I don't think the porting number is any where close to what they have said.

If it is true we can subtract half of the PERM approvals from ROW-M-P for FY2011 and first half of FY2012 towards porting.

This could also mean porting is at it's peak and very low ROW EB2/EB3 demand for future based on USCIS-I-485 inventory: May 2012 and recent demand data for EB3ROW.

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So you think it's lower than what they've said for EB2ROW and higher for EB2IC? Sorry for being dense, but I'm having a hard time understanding. The high EB2 ROW porting number makes sense in light of how slowly even EB3 ROW moves.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

So you think it's lower than what they've said for EB2ROW and higher for EB2IC? Sorry for being dense, but I'm having a hard time understanding. The high EB2 ROW porting number makes sense in light of how slowly even EB3 ROW moves.

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abcx13,
Your statement contradicts the fact that if ROW(EB3-->EB2) porting is high then EB3 ROW should move much faster.

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Originally Posted by veni001

abcx13,
Your statement contradicts the fact that if ROW(EB3-->EB2) porting is high then EB3 ROW should move much faster.

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Um, no it doesn't. The porting could be from EB3ROW people two years after the EB3ROW COD. That will not make the movement any faster. Also, it's hard to know how much slower EB3ROW would have moved without porting. So I still don't understand what you are saying.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

What's interesting is that for the first time, I'm seeing actual porting numbers (assuming these are accurate):



So WW porting demand is a lot higher than IC porting, which is lower than I expected. About a quarter to a third of the quota is being consumed by porting! Those are 10-15k numbers that non-porting EB2-IC could be receiving every year. So even with high demand from EB2-IC, EB2IC could have been current were it not for porting. They need to stop letting porters use their old PDs.

I wonder if USCIS policy with respect to porting and retaining PD would have been different if they'd realized just how many cases of porting there were.

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I think that is a misinterpretation by Murthy.

What the AILA statement (which is what Murthy are discussing) is different. You can find the AILA release in post #7549 on page 302.

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Mr. Oppenheim's office believes that there are 10,000 to 15,000 numbers used for upgrades every fiscal year.

In March 2012, alone, 3,200 numbers were used to approve China and India adjustments that were EB-3-EB-2 upgrades. The actual break down was 2,800 from India and 500 from China.

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According to CO, Porting used 2.8k in March 2012 alone, not in FY2012 as the Murthy article says.

When talking about Worldwide usage, the statement was also about March 2012 consumption and said

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In March 2012, alone, over 1,000 numbers were used for applications from the worldwide quota that had priority dates before 2010, so these were likely upgrades as well.

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Even if the figures are taken at face value, Worldwide porting numbers were about one third of those for India and Chinese porting was about one sixth of the Indian level. March 2012 may not have been an indicative month and CO's figures are at best a "guesstimate", since he acknowledges that nobody is keeping track of the actual numbers.

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Upgrades continue to be a big "wildcard," as no one knows how many are being used per year and no one is tracking it.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Um, no it doesn't. The porting could be from EB3ROW people two years after the EB3ROW COD. That will not make the movement any faster. Also, it's hard to know how much slower EB3ROW would have moved without porting. So I still don't understand what you are saying.

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abcx13,
If that is true then it is good news for EB3ROW, since most of those PERM we are counting as EB3 for FY2009-10 should have been ported by now! Once EB3ROW cross July-2007, should move at a faster pace!

In-addition PERM data shows fewer ROW PERM certifications for FY2011-12 (to-date).

Bottom line, once this porting peak is passed for ROW, EB2IC should be receiving more spillover.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think that is a misinterpretation by Murthy.

What the AILA statement (which is what Murthy are discussing) is different. You can find the AILA release in post #7549 on page 302.



According to CO, Porting used 2.8k in March 2012 alone, not in FY2012 as the Murthy article says.

When talking about Worldwide usage, the statement was also about March 2012 consumption and said



Even if the figures are taken at face value, Worldwide porting numbers were about one third of those for India and Chinese porting was about one sixth of the Indian level. March 2012 may not have been an indicative month and CO's figures are at best a "guesstimate", since he acknowledges that nobody is keeping track of the actual numbers.

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Got it. Thanks for straightening me out. :)

If those March numbers are true, then I suspect at least 50% of EB2 is being used for porters.

I agree. I think the numbers could be ONLY as high as 6K across board max.

The reason being, EB3ROW although painful, doesn't have as high wait time as EB3IC. So they can have max porting levels only as high as EB3IC (in terms of proportion).

EB3ROW probably has same or similar demand as EB3IC. So the max EB3ROW can port is about 3K ie. EB3IC level.

The statement about March that talked about 1K, could include each and every EB2&3 approval except a few EB2ROW. So 1K in its entirely doesn't represent porting. And hence can't be extrapolated to full year.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Even if the figures are taken at face value, Worldwide porting numbers were about one third of those for India and Chinese porting was about one sixth of the Indian level.

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I think there will me more 2008 and 2009 applications showing on demand data tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

I think there will me more 2008 and 2009 applications showing on demand data tomorrow.

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Of course that will happen... Unless the USCIS has been sitting on its collective hands

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I agree. I think the numbers could be ONLY as high as 6K across board max.

The reason being, EB3ROW although painful, doesn't have as high wait time as EB3IC. So they can have max porting levels only as high as EB3IC (in terms of proportion).

EB3ROW probably has same or similar demand as EB3IC. So the max EB3ROW can port is about 3K ie. EB3IC level.

The statement about March that talked about 1K, could include each and every EB2&3 approval except a few EB2ROW. So 1K in its entirely doesn't represent porting. And hence can't be extrapolated to full year.

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Q,
That is the number we all agreed more or less over the past year.

An interesting, if worrisome, post on Trackitt. The poster has an EB1A application.

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Posted by gn203 (24) 41 minutes ago
Hi all,

My I140 got approved in Dec 2011 and filed I485 in Jan 2012 for me and my wife. I485 RD is 01/27/2012. We both got EAD/AP combo cards in March 2012. Couple of weeks back our I485 cases changed from IR to acceptance. Called USCIS and raised a SR. I got letter from USCIS saying that VISA availability in this category is used up. Please let me know if anyone in this date range got GC or RFE or approval of I485.

thanks

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While I don't put too much store by it, it is the first post I have seen that hints of EB1 retrogression of any form is actually already effective.

The poster is Indian and, if true, it hints at a Cut Off date for at least EB1-India (and therefore probably EB1-China). In fact it would say that the date is already internally retrogressed. The PD is not readily apparent but is no later than December 2011, since that is when the I-140 appears to have been approved.

That in turn means EB2-WW would have to become Unavailable and that CO is 100% confident that other EB1 cases will fully use any remaining visas for the year.

Without further confirmation, I am not quite at the stage to fully believe that (although it is a definite possibility as I have discussed in my page 1 post).

I had thought that such an event would probably only happen in September, if at all.

I've only posted it because I thought it was an interesting development.

August 2012 Demand Data is out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

August 2012 Demand Data is out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

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Kanmani,
Thank you, about 5K change in demand for EB2IC and about 4K for EB3.

Based on the deman data is it is safe to say EB2ROW demand is no greater than 500 per month, including upgrades.......