EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Its possible that people give friends' address and receive GC after they move to India. Or USCIS issues GC and the GC is returned to them. In either case a visa number is wasted. Theoretically USCIS can reassign those numbers ... but I would doubt that they do.

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Q, I happen to know of a few cases on IV & Trackitt, this is true, and people have asked questions whether they will have any issues in re-entering. Also I happen to know of a case of one of my client managers, he had actually been laid off by his sponsoring employer, came to India to join this client and was then greened and went back. This client gave him a world tour at their expense to train him as he was supposed to be a global service delivery manager and he left them soon after to come back to US on his GC, not sure whether he joined his sponsor or went elsewhere, there is little scrutiny after GC, those were the good days around 2003 if I remember correctly.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni
Then what explains why these people are so close to getting GC, had at some point of time bothered to create a trackitt account but then gave up tracking these cases since Jan 2011.

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Q,
When cut-off dates are severely retrogressed more people register/follow/track the trends!

EB2I was current up until September 2005 and then dates retrogresses as far back as Nov-'99 in October 2005 to "C" in July 2007.

At least for the last couple of years there is some clarity(mostly due to the transparency with demand & usage) . So not very many people are caring to track/update their cases?

Just my thoughts!

Q,

Why are we only dependent on Trackitt for EB1 and EB2 ROW usage? Do we have any other source? We also admit CO and team gave us a agenda for discussion. In all this speculation one good thing is happened PWMB's are getting chance to file 485. Let them move the dates back and forth in small chunks. It happened in the past. It shouldn't be like a one that happened in July 07 because it was a mess. Immediate target is 485/EAD..GC tu abhi dur hai..and as Sogaddu (sorry, if I misspelled the name) bhayee said aaya tu aaya baki sab maya..:o

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 YTD* 3,706
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
FY05 158
*Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.

From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD

Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.

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Kd,
As usual good find.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

This is good info, so we actually had just 6K SOFAD from EB5 so looks like those efforts are working.

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Teddy,
EB5 spillover ~6K, lowest in last 6 years.

Unless I-526 receipts come down can expect similar usage for FY2012.

Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?

"- ye GC nahin asaan, itna to samajh li je... ek phenyl ki goli hai aur choos ke khaana hai."
LOL ! This is too funny, Nishant.....

Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".

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hmm... on a funnier note... you find it apt for your GC wait and your wife on marriage :-) :-) Jai Ho...take it on a lighter note...

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?

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N Imt... i will tell you my scenario and my thought process... My current H1B expires on Oct 1 2011...my PD is 2007 Oct... So i applied for H1b 6 months earlier in premium processing so that if any issues i can clear them or get transfer to other company and pursue H1 and eventually GC process by retaining PD... I also thought the worst case scenario is to ask my lawyer to request for CP ( as during my 140 i didnt opt for it) and leave country before taking all the letters from employer... fortunately H1B got cleared for 3 more years... So i wish you all the best...

Yes if your company can sponsor, you can go for CP and it is optional at 140 stage but i guess you can invoke it anytime after 140 and before 485 and it takes 6 months for your case to transfer to NVC ...

Prabhu.... 6 mahine se aapke comments padke apna mood theek kar raha hun.... aur aaj to aapne "woh maraa paapad waale ko". Yes, with my foul mood because of the GC thing all the time, my wife finds it hard to deal with me... so you guessed it right ..... hahahaha.... i am kidding... frankly, aapke waali baat... aaya to aaya, baaki sab maaya.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

hmm... on a funnier note... you find it apt for your GC wait and your wife on marriage :-) :-) Jai Ho...take it on a lighter note...

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Yaar yeh NVC kya hota hai? .... "nearest visa consulate"???

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Originally Posted by soggadu

N Imt... i will tell you my scenario and my thought process... My current H1B expires on Oct 1 2011...my PD is 2007 Oct... So i applied for H1b 6 months earlier in premium processing so that if any issues i can clear them or get transfer to other company and pursue H1 and eventually GC process by retaining PD... I also thought the worst case scenario is to ask my lawyer to request for CP ( as during my 140 i didnt opt for it) and leave country before taking all the letters from employer... fortunately H1B got cleared for 3 more years... So i wish you all the best...

Yes if your company can sponsor, you can go for CP and it is optional at 140 stage but i guess you can invoke it anytime after 140 and before 485 and it takes 6 months for your case to transfer to NVC ...

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Technically its possible. Whether your company will be willing to do it is something you should explore. In fact what I would do is explore if company could send you any other country for one year and then bring back on EB1C.

Your AOS 485 stage is at least 2-3 years away and so is your GC as of now.

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".

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Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh pachataye / bach gaya sala / bhuka mar jaye ... (depending on individual's situation :) )

NVC = National visa center

My situation is bizzare, i was a 3rd party contractor until recently.... my visa extension was filed after 6 years but until then my Labor had not arrived, so i got only 1 and a half year extension (recapture period and 1 year for labor)... but then, i had a DHS personnel visiting me at my workplace. ... asked all kinds of questions because of my 3rd party contract and later sent a letter to my company requiring clarification. In the mean time, i found a contract directly through my company and now hopefully visa renewal shouldn't be a problem. But because of this DHS letter and visit thingy, i am a bit nervous about extension. I was hoping to see some sort of BTM that would bring me AOS and AP. but reading all the stuff here, i guess that ain't happening. So I am kinda exploring all options right now. My question is, should there be a reason why my company cannot keep sponsoring my green card when all other processes are already completed.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Technically its possible. Whether your company will be willing to do it is something you should explore. In fact what I would do is explore if company could send you any other country for one year and then bring back on EB1C.

Your AOS 485 stage is at least 2-3 years away and so is your GC as of now.





Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh pachataye / bach gaya sala / bhuka mar jaye ... (depending on individual's situation :) )

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

My situation is bizzare, i was a 3rd party contractor until recently.... my visa extension was filed after 6 years but until then my Labor had not arrived, so i got only 1 and a half year extension (recapture period and 1 year for labor)... but then, i had a DHS personnel visiting me at my workplace. ... asked all kinds of questions because of my 3rd party contract and later sent a letter to my company requiring clarification. In the mean time, i found a contract directly through my company and now hopefully visa renewal shouldn't be a problem. But because of this DHS letter and visit thingy, i am a bit nervous about extension. I was hoping to see some sort of BTM that would bring me AOS and AP. but reading all the stuff here, i guess that ain't happening. So I am kinda exploring all options right now. My question is, should there be a reason why my company cannot keep sponsoring my green card when all other processes are already completed.

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N Imt... it is very much possible for your company to keep sponsoring as GC is for future employment... cheers... but i have a feeling you wont need to go that far and you will get your extension normally...

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

Fragomen global corporate immigration law | News and Resources United States
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=1325

Good news is that there is no wastage of Visas. Bad news is they ran out of numbers sooner than expected.

EB Immigrant Visa Numbers Unavailable Until October 1
September 15, 2011
The State Department has run out of immigrant visa numbers in all employment-based categories for this fiscal year. Until October 1, when next year’s visa quota becomes available, USCIS cannot approve any EB I-485 adjustment applications but foreign nationals can still submit them. Family-based adjustment applications are not affected.

The September Visa Bulletin – released on August 11 – projected that EB immigrant visas would be available throughout this month, but numbers ran out sooner because USCIS processed an unexpectedly large number of adjustment cases in early August.

When more EB immigrant visas become available on October 1, USCIS will process adjustment cases with priority dates that are current according to the October Visa Bulletin.

Friends this news from Fragomen confirms that August consumption was high thats why the Sep bulletin was so moderate. Trackitt trend shows that EB2 ROW and EB1 consumed double of what they did last year in Aug.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

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I thought of donating X dollars to some charity org. If it doesn't happen, then it will be X/2

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

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I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

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:) After this I think the movement may only happen later on in dying stages of Q3/beginning of Q4, if USCIS/DOS realize danger of visas being wasted. We know that if need be, USCIS can do 485s in 2 to 3 months, as well as at this point, dates may be advanced not just for AOS, but to get the few hundred CP in. If they are advanced to get the few hundred CP in, then 2008 guys will get lucky.

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

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Originally Posted by natvyas

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

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Yes, true. 2008 is a big fat year though, same as 2007. how much of 2008 can expect to file, that would be the analysis.

I have a fear that last two months of 2007 will be intruding into the pie of next FY too.

Based on any calculation, 2008 will be current for sure somewhere around Oct 2012. Million dollar question is, is there any possibility in Current Year ?

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Originally Posted by natvyas

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

What ????????

Nishant this is too much to digest

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This is just purely based on surge of EB1, EB2 ROW and encouragement to EB5, which we all are seeing taking shape. let's hope it subsides due to bad economy or some reason.

At least I am thinking October will be in, Teddy has doubts on that too :)

I am myself November, it gives me a big heartache to even think this.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

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I think then we are assuming that the FB trend will likely to be followed; most (if not all) of the forward movement will happen in Nov and Dec bulletins and the PDs will then retrogress back in the Jan bulletin (maybe around April-May'07). The PDs will then start moving forward again from April-May bulletins and approvals will start flowing in. If this scenario happens, I will say that this is a fair model where approvals will roughly follow the order of PDs and there will be ample time to approve EB2-I/C cases for the spillover season. With that being said, in this situation we probably won't have that many approvals in Q1.