"I have already discussed about leave on absence and in my opinion except for few medical reasons, the employment is not counted."
Kanmani can you please throw some more light on that, or provide me the link for that.
Thank you.
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"I have already discussed about leave on absence and in my opinion except for few medical reasons, the employment is not counted."
Kanmani can you please throw some more light on that, or provide me the link for that.
Thank you.
guys... please let me know of your experiences and process for the below topic...thnx...
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8023#post28023
Stemcell,Quote:
Originally Posted by Stemcell
I couldn't find the earlier discussions. I was mentioning my Indian experience on leave of absence (in specific unpaid leave). During unpaid leave, employees are removed from the payroll and other benefits , are not shown in the organisational strength, there will be a break in the service records etc etc.
I have no US experience, here the legal leave rules mention a 12 week unpaid leave period for medical reasons which may be counted against service, that includes employee must continue to contribute insurance premiums and other payments if necessary .
I am not sure about long unpaid leaves as Murali mentioned so I gave my opinion mixed with my own experience and I personally think those leaves' may be considered as break.
Thanks Spec. I was trying to get to the link on USCIS website (I am using http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD). The file was incomplete when I last checked and today the link is not working.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Article on immigrant impact on housing market by the Economist.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...meawayfromhome
vizcard, there was a case made by somebody in harvard to provide GCs if a person buys a home. Imagine that would clear all backlog of EB! So 200K houses sold at average 200K price = $40B of impact.
In fact its the economic purchasing power of immigrants that is the main reason why immigration is officially allowed. In principle 3% GDP growth is targeted of which 2% is supposed to come from productivity & 1% from population growth. In advanced countries the local population can't grow at 1% growth and hence immigration is necessary.
Of course that is old school economic theory behind immigration. The digital revolution completely threw the productivity numbers and blew through the roof.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thank you Kanmani.
In the US one can use FMLA (family medical leave act) for full time employees. I guess one can take upto 6 months leave on it.Not sure about the insurance premiums contributions though.
What you say is true but i think the length of time differs by state . In any case, the situation described by Murali would not fall in FMLA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stemcell
Stemcell,Quote:
Originally Posted by Stemcell
Even in the case of FMLA, employees are entitled to a maximum of 12 weeks of job protected unpaid leave in a year/12 month period.
http://www.dol.gov/whd/regs/complian...ers/fmlaen.pdf
Does anyone know if a there is a job location change(same position) for a person in h1b. is it enough to file LCA? or should he also file amendement....
USCIS Performance data as of March 2012 is available now ......http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...e_data_qtr.pdf
Spec great details from you as always. Let us try to come up with ROW consumption from another angle.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
- EB2 I/C probably used 22 - 24K this year. This gives ROW + M + P a wiggle room of 16 - 18K.
- When the brakes were applied that was the time they realized that EB1 will actually use up its entire cap this year, essentially EB1 would not lose anything. EB1 using its full cap was not a surprise considering that last year the Kazarian memo slowed down things, there was a huge reduction of I140 backlog and EB1C usage was quite high. Based on these factors I had made a prediction that Eb1 will probably not give any SOFAD this year.
- From Trackitt 2011 v/s 2012 approvals for EB2 ROW Primary approvals are 507 to 330.
- Now for simplicity let’s assume that EB2 ROW, M & P were all equally impacted with EB2 I/C crossing the line assuming the demands were same this year as well we saw 330/507 = .65 of the approvals from last year. For simplicity I have assumed the ROW numbers from Trackitt to represent ROW + M + P.
- Now .65 of 28 gives the range of 18. The figure of 18K gels well with the guesstimated value of 22K of what Eb2 I/C have consumed assuming the 40K allowed for EB2.
- So if we go by 18K then .35 of this i.e. ~ 6-6.5K was not satiated this year. This kind of wipes out ROW sofad for the upcoming year or at least 75% of it.
Let’s wait and see how things turn out when the FY 2013 starts in October. I believe it will take a minimum of 1 quarter for EB2 ROW to be current on the VB and then another quarter to run current in terms of approvals. ROW can only give SOFAD when they are current in terms of approvals.
i think LCA should be enough. I work in EVC model and changed my client from one location (state) to another. I only had to file for LCA.
i think LCA should be enough. I work in EVC model and changed my client from one location (state) to another. I only had to file for LCA.Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thanks for the heads up. I have been monitoring that page as well.
A couple of quick points from the data.
Employment Based I-485 Approvals were 12k higher in Q2 (43.4k) than they were in Q1 (31.5k). I would think the majority of the increase can be attributed to EB2-IC.
One thing is very clear and confirms my own suspicions. CO badly overshot the statutory limits of 27% per quarter.
27% represents 37,800 approvals per quarter, including Consular Processed cases.
This data does not include CP cases and Q2 shows 43.4k approvals for AOS cases alone.
For the Year To Date, AOS cases are at 75k versus a limit for all approvals of 75.6k.
Even allowing for all the extra approvals in Q2 as being EB2-IC with no CP cases, then CO appears to have used at least 59% of available EB visas in Q1-2 versus a limit of 54%. I had calculated a usage of 60%.
This explains the fairly severe slow down of approvals in Q3 and the retrogression that has been announced.
Teddy. Thanks for your thoughts.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I think the EB2-WW gap is anywhere up to 10k, as they seem to have used slightly over 22k to date.
To date, I would say all EB2 has used at least 45k, meaning they need a minimum of 5k spillover from EB1.
That would reduce EB1 allocation to 35k. However, EB1 might expect 4k from EB5, so they would have 39k to play with. If EB1 looks like it will exceed that figure, then Countries, or the Category would have to be retrogressed.
I think it will be mighty close.
1. Spec I believe last year EB2 I/C got at minimum 6K SOFAD from EB2 WW. So this should peg EB2 WW usage to ~ 28K last year, I believe this is where our baselines differ.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If we use Trackitt conversion factor assuming same density in the 2 years this gives EB2 WW usage of ~ 18K. I have probably missed how you have arrived at the 22K usage v/s 18K usage for EB2 WW.
I think we are in agreement that EB2 /C seem to have used 22 - 23K.
If EB2 usage had come closer to 45K I believe CO may have put EB2 ROW as Unavailable itself rather than having it as 01-Jan-2009 to allow some more approvals of backlogged cases since even EB1 retrogression is being talked about in this case giving any numbers to Eb2 makes it worse. This is assuming the only other cushion provider EB5 may barely provide 5-6K.
I agree that the numbers are close and everything is in the margin of error so really either scenario is possible and Trackitt ratio is my big assumption. 10K Gap however definitely no SOAFD means from EB2 WW with 6.5K there is a small chance.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Yes, we certainly differ on that.
From the DHS figures, we know that EB2 received 66.8k visas last year, which is 26.8k over the 40k initial allocation - so spillover was 26.8k
We also know that EB1 contributed 14.8k spillover, EB4 contributed 3.2k spillover and EB5 contributed 5.9k spillover. That is a total of 23.9k spillover. EB3 effectively contributed the remainder, since they fell 2.5k short of their allocation and EB as a whole fell short of 140k.
Further, we know that China received 17.5k total EB visas and India received 33.6k total EB visas. We can estimate IC usage in the other EB Categories based on historical values.
That pretty much pegs EB2-IC SOFAD at around 33.5k, especially as we also know that EB2-C received 8.3k visas (perhaps slightly more).
If EB2-IC used 33.5k, then EB2-WW must have used 33.3k. This level would only yield 1.1k fall across within EB2 itself.
A higher calculated EB2-WW usage in FY2011 will yield higher usage numbers for FY2012. In fact, using my figure instead of 28k, you would come out at pretty much 22k.
Thanks for the details, everything looks flawless. It is going to be gloomy situation in the upcoming year for EB2 I/C if both EB2 WW and EB1 have the same kind of demand as this year. The dates may just barely cross 2007 at this rate assuming the only SOFAD provider being EB5.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Teddy, it's not great, is it?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Fall Across from EB2-WW could be a couple of k higher, since I probably used too aggressive a figure for EB1-IC approvals. That would also raise SOFAD to 35.5k.
I still can't fathom why DOS will not publish the FY2011 Visa Statistics. They were published in January last year. Are they hiding something?
I am not quite as pessimistic as you about FY2013. Currently, I am working with 12.5k SOFAD as possible because I think EB1 can give some spillover next year.
Spec and Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you both for the wonderful inputs (though I am not implying the situation to be wonderful).
Spec, when you say 12.5K SOFAD, does that include the 2.8K available to EB2I by default? For FY 2013, I think we should leave China alone, they will go ahead of EB2-I just with their 2.8K.
Cheers
murali,Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
12.5k SOFAD represents the total available to EB2-IC, including the initial allocation of 5.6k.
Of that, EB2-C would receive 2.8k (only their initial allocation) and EB2-I would receive 9.7k.
Hope that clarifies it for you.
Assuming 20% of cases get left behind, that would move EB2-I to about Feb 2008 by my calculations while EB2-C would move to Jun/Aug 2008. I have assumed a fairly high Porting number, since there is effectively nearly 1.5 years worth to come in FY2013 (a normal year plus those who have had to wait for dates to become available again).
The numbers are subject to change, so that is only a preliminary guess. Please treat it as such.
Spec,
Thanks. I like the fact that you took a fairly high porting number. Better to be conservative in this matter. In the end if we get higher sofad and lesser porting, great, but who knows. Expect the worst and Hope for the Best
Another couple of statistics from the FY2012 Q2 All Forms Report.
Compared to the same time period in the FY2011 Report, Employment Based I-485 Receipts are 58.6k higher and Employment Based I-485 Approvals are 29.0k higher.
That seems to be about in line with the predictions.