EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by openaccount

Spec,

Isn't USCIS doing interfiling for EB3-EB2 porting as soon as I-140 EB2 is approved, if interfiling happens at time of I-140 approval then even if CO decides to make EB2IC dates U again some time next year(if CO wants to keep porting within limit) as he did this year porting numbers will be added right away as soon as I-140 approval happens. So porting numbers will be added to EB2I inventory right away when ever dates move forward.

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openaccount,

I am happy to admit that my knowledge of the interfiling and requesting the EB2 petition to be the basis for approval of an existing I-485 is very limited. I don't pretend to understand process fully.

For instance, can the EB2 petition be made the basis for the I-485 at a time when the EB2 PD is not Current? Do such cases have to wait until the PD is Current again?

I seem to remember reading a post by Ron Gotcher about this, but I can't remember what he said and for the life of me, I can't find it again. Grrrr.

Maybe Kanmani can come to the rescue - she has the knack of finding these things.

At the very least, there are still the numbers between May 5 and October 1 that we know nothing about. If they can be switched from EB3 to EB2 in the Inventory when not Current, we should see at least some of them in the next Inventory. If not, they will appear as dates become Current.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec,
I think your analysis makes sense although as KD points out "Fall Across" seems tough.

I do have a question about the real implications of porting. First of all, would it be fair to say that most current porters are already covered in the inventory ? Also, given that we are current "U", any new porting candidates cannot file concurrent 140/485s which in turn implies they cannot be pre-adjudicated. Therefore, the 485 processing time applies to them. So assuming dates move to Nov 2007 in Q1, porters with PD in that period may not become "demand" until atleast Q2. So whatever the porting number we assume, only 9 months of that would be relevant.

Or am I completely nuts?

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vizcard,

That raises an interesting point.

True Porters to me are those EB3 applicants that already have filed an I-485, subsequently have an EB2 I-140 approved and request the I-485 to be adjudicated based on the EB2 I-140 and EB3 PD.

I'm not sure what to call those people who have an EB3 I-40 approved, then later have an EB2 I-140 approved, but who have never filed an I-485. Upgraders perhaps. to me they are different cases, because, as you say, the latter has a lag time to approval once the I-485 is submitted.

A true Porter cannot have a PD later than July 31, 2007 in my mind. I think each year will see a new crop of true Porters, since EB3-I is so badly retrogressed.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

openaccount,

I am happy to admit that my knowledge of the interfiling and requesting the EB2 petition to be the basis for approval of an existing I-485 is very limited. I don't pretend to understand process fully.

For instance, can the EB2 petition be made the basis for the I-485 at a time when the EB2 PD is not Current? Do such cases have to wait until the PD is Current again?

I seem to remember reading a post by Ron Gotcher about this, but I can't remember what he said and for the life of me, I can't find it again. Grrrr.

Maybe Kanmani can come to the rescue - she has the knack of finding these things.

At the very least, there are still the numbers between May 5 and October 1 that we know nothing about. If they can be switched from EB3 to EB2 in the Inventory when not Current, we should see at least some of them in the next Inventory. If not, they will appear as dates become Current.

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Spec,

My understanding of the term interfiling was elaborated by the attorney I met with at the famous M' law firm few months back.

It is exactly as stated by you for true porters "request the I-485 to be adjudicated based on the EB2 I-140 "

As interfiling is not limited to Eb3 to Eb2 porting, your statement can be modified as 'request the I-485 to be adjudicated based on a specific I-140 approval'

Eventhough it doesn't involve a new AOS petition,technically it cannot be done when the PD is not current.

Hello friends, been away for a while. Needed a break. Missing you all.

Very intriguing July bulletin. EB2-ROW having a 2k9 cutoff date feels unbelievable.

Spec is really guiding us a lot in this seemingly chaotic times.

FY 2012 has really turned out to be a twister. I just said this today to a coworker: Let's not fight the pieces falling into place.

If USCIS had followed proper order, I still think q1 2k8 would be where we at, although U might have masked it for last few months, but this is what we might have begun with in FY 2013. Now I think we shall begin at around August 2007, with a slow progress. Don't think CO will go gung-ho in QSP again anytime soon.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

That raises an interesting point.

True Porters to me are those EB3 applicants that already have filed an I-485, subsequently have an EB2 I-140 approved and request the I-485 to be adjudicated based on the EB2 I-140 and EB3 PD.

I'm not sure what to call those people who have an EB3 I-40 approved, then later have an EB2 I-140 approved, but who have never filed an I-485. Upgraders perhaps. to me they are different cases, because, as you say, the latter has a lag time to approval once the I-485 is submitted.

A true Porter cannot have a PD later than July 31, 2007 in my mind. I think each year will see a new crop of true Porters, since EB3-I is so badly retrogressed.

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In my opinion, upgraders are also porters . So we have to comeup with a new term for porters who have interfiled their petition . Is it sensible?

KD,

Your statement on last year's PERM receipt numbers may not be correct. Last year DOS received 45,084 applications by May 31, 2011 as compared to 43,100 applications they received this year by May 31st. So, we are actually slightly better off this year as compared to last year.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...1_may_2012.pdf

Applications Received
YTD (Oct. 1, 2011 – May 30, 2012) 43,100
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 13,300
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 17,700
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 12,100

These are massive amounts of filings. Last three years, avg. number of filings per year were about 43,000. We have met those in just 8 months. Oh, Lordy!

Applications Certified
YTD(Oct. 1, 2011 –May 30, 2012)* 27,600
Oct. 1 –Dec. 31, 2011 (Q1) 9,500
Jan. 1 –Mar. 31, 2012 (Q2) 7,100
Apr. 1 –May 30, 2012(Q3 to date) 11,000

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec,

My understanding of the term interfiling was elaborated by the attorney I met with at the famous M' law firm few months back.

It is exactly as stated by you for true porters "request the I-485 to be adjudicated based on the EB2 I-140 "

As interfiling is not limited to Eb3 to Eb2 porting, your statement can be modified as 'request the I-485 to be adjudicated based on a specific I-140 approval'

Even though it doesn't involve a new AOS petition,technically it cannot be done when the PD is not current.

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Kanmani,

Thanks for your explanation.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

In my opinion, upgraders are also porters . So we have to come up with a new term for porters who have interfiled their petition . Is it sensible?

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Agreed. I like to think of them separately, rather than as one group.

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Originally Posted by vedu

KD,

Your statement on last year's PERM receipt numbers may not be correct. Last year DOS received 45,084 applications by May 31, 2011 as compared to 43,100 applications they received this year by May 31st. So, we are actually slightly better off this year as compared to last year.

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Vedu,

Great find man. I did check other sources and the numbers on your pdf match.

But there is just one point lying underneath, if it has any significance at this stage. In fy 2011, people with advanced degree were 37%, while this time it is 51%.

Also the 2011 file does not apparently provide the numbers certified and denied. But has a 22000 active cases, is that the number certified, just curious.

If that is the case we have more certified cases this year 27,600.

But I am pretty sure that active cases is not equal to certified case (If that was the case the denial rate is as high as 51%), would seem very steep. So my next question is can we find how many cases were certified between oct 2010 and may 2011. (This link does not seem to work, http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ata_FY2011.mdb )

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Originally Posted by suninphx

I have another point. Can some one tell me how reliable are trackitt % when it comes to PERM stats?. I ran filter for last 6 months and it tells me that % of ROWMP filers is around 15% which is much less than what Veni suggested in one of his recent post (40%)

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Suninphx,

I am not sure how reliable trackitt is in this regard due to excessive participation of EB2-I on trackitt. If you look at the perm cert file for 2012, It does give break down by country and EB2IC is bang on at 61%, so ROW+MP is 39%.

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Originally Posted by murali83

Suninphx,

I am not sure how reliable trackitt is in this regard due to excessive participation of EB2-I on trackitt. If you look at the perm cert file for 2012, It does give break down by country and EB2IC is bang on at 61%, so ROW+MP is 39%.

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Murali - you are right. In fact, I realized that later, so removed that post.

Hi All,

I am wondering if on going AILA conference will give us any further information to help predict numbers in better way ..

Spec/Q/Veni and other Gurus, share your thoughts ..

Thank you

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

In my opinion, upgraders are also porters . So we have to comeup with a new term for porters who have interfiled their petition . Is it sensible?

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So "upgraders" eventually become "porters" or do they become "one of us"? I don't mean that in a disparaging way but I want to define it so that we don't double count in the math.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

So "upgraders" eventually become "porters" or do they become "one of us"? I don't mean that in a disparaging way but I want to define it so that we don't double count in the math.

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vizcard,

Fair point.

Maybe we just need to understand that we are talking about "Ëffective Porting Numbers".

By that, I mean those Porters who can actually be approved in the FY because their PD becomes Current.

10,000 could port with an existing PD in 2009 and it would likely have no effect in FY2013.

I would guess that most Porters in FY2013 would actually still come from the 2004-2007 range, where most probably have an existing I-485 on file already. Those with a PD of Aug 2007 to wherever the COD reaches in FY2013 would be the minority, although some may have been able to file an I-485 earlier this year.

For FY2013 there might be 3 "groups" of Porters:

a) Those who interfiled in FY2012 before the dates retrogressed beyond their PD and have not been approved yet - most of these should already be shown in the May Inventory.
b) Those from FY2012 who didn't finish the interfiling process before dates retrogressed beyond their PD - at least 4 months worth from June-September 2012.
c) Those who didn't start in FY2012, but will complete the process in FY2013 as dates become Current.

Gurus out there,

I am not sure if anyone got a chance to look into Vedu's post. But the more I think in that direction, I feel EB2 row will not behave any different in FY 2013 compared to FY 2012. Their demand is pretty much the same (in fact it maybe less if anything based on the perm data available). I am still waiting to see if we can get access to the certifications by country in 2011 to get a better idea and compare it to what we have this year.

So between Oct 2011 and May 2012 based on published data we have certified perms of 27600 of which 10764 are from ROWMP countries. Now how many of these contribute of EB2-ROWMP is a little difficult to guess in my opinion based on the information available.

My guess based on the data for Oct 2010 - May 2011 (http://www.immilaw.com/FAQ/PERM%20st...6%20-%2011.pdf) is that certified perms in that time frame are lesser for ROWMP as well.

Doesn't this counter our thought that spillover from EB2ROW in fiscal year 2013 will be almost nil. I mean if anything they should yield in 2013 what they would have yielded this year 2012 (they would have yielded a little lesser, if not for the fiasco).

Viz,
As Spec said, Porters with 2008 & later PD may be seen only in the coming years. We might have had some upgraders who filed their I-485 during Nov'11 to March'12 , I don't think those numbers can make a substantial effect on the OR.

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Originally Posted by murali83

Gurus out there,

I am not sure if anyone got a chance to look into Vedu's post. But the more I think in that direction, I feel EB2 row will not behave any different in FY 2013 compared to FY 2012. Their demand is pretty much the same (in fact it maybe less if anything based on the perm data available). I am still waiting to see if we can get access to the certifications by country in 2011 to get a better idea and compare it to what we have this year.

So between Oct 2011 and May 2012 based on published data we have certified perms of 27600 of which 10764 are from ROWMP countries. Now how many of these contribute of EB2-ROWMP is a little difficult to guess in my opinion based on the information available.

My guess based on the data for Oct 2010 - May 2011 (http://www.immilaw.com/FAQ/PERM%20st...6%20-%2011.pdf) is that certified perms in that time frame are lesser for ROWMP as well.

Doesn't this counter our thought that spillover from EB2ROW in fiscal year 2013 will be almost nil. I mean if anything they should yield in 2013 what they would have yielded this year 2012 (they would have yielded a little lesser, if not for the fiasco).

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Murali, please read the PERM statistics that Veni and I discussed few pages back. PERM situation is dynamic. In Oct 11 to March 12 period there were 16,600 certifications. Then in April 12 and May 12 there were 11,000 certifications.

Moreover, PERM filings (and not approvals) have averaged about 43,000 per year in FY 2009,2010 and 2011. But in FY 2012 in first 8 months itself, there have been 43,000 filings.

So you can see filings are increasing and approvals are picking up. This implies the demand will increase for EB2-ROW next year, especially so because EB2-ROW is retrogressed now and will become current in FY 2013.

This is why EB2-ROW will mostly likely consume just as much as this year, and very likely more than this year.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Murali, please read the PERM statistics that Veni and I discussed few pages back. PERM situation is dynamic. In Oct 11 to March 12 period there were 16,600 certifications. Then in April 12 and May 12 there were 11,000 certifications.

Moreover, PERM filings (and not approvals) have averaged about 43,000 per year in FY 2009,2010 and 2011. But in FY 2012 in first 8 months itself, there have been 43,000 filings.

So you can see filings are increasing and approvals are picking up. This implies the demand will increase for EB2-ROW next year, especially so because EB2-ROW is retrogressed now and will become current in FY 2013.

This is why EB2-ROW will mostly likely consume just as much as this year, and very likely more than this year.

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KD,

In the pdf file for 2011 approx 45K filings in FY 2011 is for a time period from Oct 2010 to May 2011, not the entire year (it says total applications received between Oct 2010 and May 2011). So in these 8 months we have only 43K filings in 2012 compared to 2011 which received 45K in 8 months.

Please correct me if I am wrong

I agree that perm filing is dynamic and approvals might increase. Filings in the last 4 months of the year may get higher or lower than last year. But looking at just the first 8 months FY 2012 seems to have roughly 2K filings lesser than FY 2011.

PS: I agree that filings in 2011 were considerably higher than 2010 and maybe 2009 also.

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Originally Posted by murali83

KD,

In the pdf file for 2011 approx 45K filings in FY 2011 is for a time period from Oct 2010 to May 2011, not the entire year (it says total applications received between Oct 2010 and May 2011). So in these 8 months we have only 43K filings in 2012 compared to 2011 which received 45K in 8 months.

Please correct me if I am wrong

I agree that perm filing is dynamic and approvals might increase. Filings in the last 4 months of the year may get higher or lower than last year. But looking at just the first 8 months FY 2012 seems to have roughly 2K filings lesser than FY 2011.

PS: I agree that filings in 2011 were considerably higher than 2010 and maybe 2009 also.

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Without having apples to apples comparison from the DOL Factsheets for Q1 and Q2 it is difficult to compare properly.

I agree that as of the end of May, FY2011 and FY2012 are very comparable.

What I will repeat (rather like a parrot - sorry) is that at some point, we should see a dip in PERM receipts caused by the inability to get a PWD at the end of 2011, followed by a surge when they all finally come through.

It is possible that we have now come out of the dip and are into the surge phase.

I think only time will resolve this debate.

One more thing which makes difficult to compare 2012 with 2011 is the warning from DOL for a potential debarment of the employer one who repeatedly withdraws perm applications under audit . 2012 onwards, withdrawing audit perm applications and refiling as fresh applications are not allowed.

Spec,

Here is the wordings from Adjudicator’s Field Manual Chapter 23.2(I)(2)(L)

23.2 General Adjustment of Status Issues. (l) Transferring an Adjustment of Status Application from One Underlying Eligibility Basis to Another . (2) Guidelines (When considering a request by an adjustment applicant to convert the basis of his or her application, an adjudicator should take the following into account

(L) The Priority Date must Be Current for the Basis to Which the Applicant Wishes to Convert .

In order to convert an adjustment application to a new basis involving a preference classification, the alien must be the beneficiary of an approved visa petition (pertaining to that new basis) which has a current visa availability date. With limited exceptions, a priority date is NOT transferrable from one preference category to another, or from one petition to another.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/A...html#0-0-0-427

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec,

Here is the wordings from Adjudicator’s Field Manual Chapter 23.2(I)(2)(L)

23.2 General Adjustment of Status Issues. (l) Transferring an Adjustment of Status Application from One Underlying Eligibility Basis to Another . (2) Guidelines (When considering a request by an adjustment applicant to convert the basis of his or her application, an adjudicator should take the following into account

(L) The Priority Date must Be Current for the Basis to Which the Applicant Wishes to Convert .

In order to convert an adjustment application to a new basis involving a preference classification, the alien must be the beneficiary of an approved visa petition (pertaining to that new basis) which has a current visa availability date. With limited exceptions, a priority date is NOT transferrable from one preference category to another, or from one petition to another.

http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/A...html#0-0-0-427

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Kanmani,

Absolutely brilliant!!

I consider myself quite good at digging these things up, but you are in a different league.

Thank You

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Given the EB2-WW backlog that will be created, it seems unlikely that any QSP would be available to EB2-I in Q1.

That would leave the maximum that could be allocated to EB2-I in Q1 as the initial 2,803 visas. That would move the Cut Off Date to only 15 Aug 07.

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Spec, if all 2800 numbers are allocated to EB2I in Q1 of 2013 and if CO does not see any spill over in Q2 & expecting any SO to happen in Q3/Q4, will dates go back to 'U' one more time and stay U till SO happens.

I was looking at previous VBs to see if anything like this happened before-after 2007 fiasco and it did happen once in 2009 when dates went back from 15-Feb-2004/VB-May2009 to 1-Jan-2000/VB-Jun2009.

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Originally Posted by openaccount

Spec, if all 2800 numbers are allocated to EB2I in Q1 of 2013 and if CO does not see any spill over in Q2 & expecting any SO to happen in Q3/Q4, will dates go back to 'U' one more time and stay U till SO happens.

I was looking at previous VBs to see if anything like this happened before-after 2007 fiasco and it did happen once in 2009 when dates went back from 15-Feb-2004/VB-May2009 to 1-Jan-2000/VB-Jun2009.

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Selfishly I prefer a U in between COD moves. That keeps the numbers clean and predictable.

I have moved the recent Discussion to a DREAMERS-Deferred-Action-Process-for-Young-People-Who-Are-Low-Enforcement-Priority thread in Live Discussion.

Does anyone have an offline copy of I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated May 3, 2012). The website has incomplete file.