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nayekal the inventory says that it includes consular processing applications as well. So yes there are some apps for which the date was never current .... yet people could apply under CP.
Not sure if you are referring to something else? Pls explain ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by nayekal
Q, what I am thinking is may be we have these kind of apps included in demand data for EB2 I & C before 2007 as well.
For example, we have 17200 pending for visa numbers prior to Jan 2007, say out of which we might have 400 of these cases
which will never have a visa number allocated until their PD's fall within current dates.
With this assumption, I believe, the spillover number that could applied can be greater than the number suggested in demand data, which we are seeing.
Also, I read in some forums (will try to provide reference later), few people will start receiving this kind of invoices when NVC predicts their PD's will become current in next 6 months or so. Last week, one of my colleague received it with a pd of Oct 2007.
Yes. That's true. But at the same time remember there are some 485 applications that are invisible since they are at district offices. And some that are PWMB. And some that are not yet documentarily qualified (which is a prerequisite before you could be adjudicated). So the 485 inventory is a good (and the best available) approximation to overall 485 demand for adjudication.
However ever since USCIS has started publishing 485 inventory .... life has become much easier. Earlier people used to do pure guesswork (with a bit of intelligence and peripheral data)!
Quote:
Originally Posted by nayekal
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
January inventory actually accounted for the field office inventories as well? you mean field offices are different from district offices?
Veni,
I meant the same. But I thought that the work has just started. Spec in fact has pointed out earlier that even after the edict came out about transferring 485 cases into TSC, not all cases will be transferred.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The chances of district offices having more then few hundred cases is very less, and we saw some inventory changes(EB2/3) in Jan Inventory update. I am hoping March inventory update, if and when released, will provide additional info!
The memo only covered preadjudicated cases at Local Offices. I would hope that the vast majority of the preadjudicated cases up to the end of Dec 2010 were transfered to TSC and were included in the Jan 05, 2011 USCIS Inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Any cases still at LO where the interview has yet to take place are still unknown.
Future successful interviews for cases that are not Current will result in the case being transferred to TSC.
Any cases that are Current and approved when interviewed will have the visa requested from the LO.
All these cases are currently invisible to the VO.
It might well only be only a few hundred or it could be several thousand. There is absolutely no visibility on the numbers.
I know some people believe that ROW may provide much higher fall across this year.
I am a little more guarded on the prospect, although I don't rule it out.
A run rate of 60% of last year's approvals is often quoted, but I don't see any evidence that this remains true.
Analyzing the cumulative ROW primary approvals (adjusted for CofC) for FY2010 and FY2011 shows the following:
----------------All Months ------------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
October-- 115 ----- 70 ------- 60.87%
November- 149 ----- 98 ------- 65.77%
December- 189 ---- 130 ------- 68.78%
January-- 214 ---- 179 ------- 83.64%
February- 237 ---- 204 ------- 86.08%
March---- 268 ---- 243 ------- 90.67%
Whilst the % was originally 60%, it has risen since.
There is always the problem with knowing exactly what October approvals represent. There always has to be a suspicion that some of them represent cases where the visa was actually allocated from the previous year's quota.
The numbers for October in FY2010 and FY2011 were very different. Excluding October from the statistics gives the following figures:
------------Excluding October ---------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
November-- 34 ----- 28 ------- 82.35%
December-- 74 ----- 60 ------- 81.08%
January--- 99 ---- 109 ------ 110.10%
February- 122 ---- 134 ------ 109.84%
March --- 153 ---- 173 ------ 113.07%
The apparent run rate is higher for the period Nov - Mar. It may mean nothing, but I do think it is interesting, so I have made the information available.
There are still virtually 6 months left and much may change either way. The period June-Aug saw higher ROW approvals in FY2010. That may not be the case this year and approval % would drop accordingly. From memory, the pipeline for further approvals in Trackitt is not huge at this point.
As ever, Mexico and Philippines approval progress is virtually impossible to predict.
Again, I am not saying that ROW fall across will not increase, only that it is perhaps too early to bank it. Personally, at this point, I still think it will be a modest increase of 1-2k.
A linear projection suggests 22k approvals for the year, which would be 2k less than last year.
For clarity and so people don't have to go hunting for the figures, EB2-ROW (excluding M & P) contributed 6.6k to the 9.7k total fall across in EB2 for FY2010. That was based on allocation of 31k. The ROW (excl M&P) allocation for FY2011 is 28.8k.
Thanks for bringing this up are these figures from Trackitt ? Trackitt works very well for EB2 ROW, I think they maybe going overboard to approve every possible EB2 ROW case.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Sorry Teddy, I didn't actually mention that did I?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Yes the figures are from Trackitt.
Approvals for EB2-ROW have actually been quite steady. There was a slightly higher blip in January.
Spectator,
Well researched, well analyzed and well written document. Appreciate it.
I am aware of many porters from EB3ROW to EB2ROW, whose data were not captured any where.
My gut feeling is that EB2ROW spillover would be in the range of 10K to 15K.
gcwait2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Thank you for your kind comments.
I'm not sure whether your definition of ROW includes Mexico and Philippines as well - mine does not.
Assuming it does and M & P contribute 3k to spill across, that would leave your range for purely ROW as 7k to 12k.
7k would represent 21.8k ROW approvals - that seems quite possible.
12k would represent only 16.8k ROW approvals - Trackitt data suggests ROW has already reached 11.5k approvals, so I think that might be a little optimistic.
If your estimate is actually for ROW (excluding M & P) then the range of 10k to 15k represents ROW approvals of between 18.8k down to 13.8k. That would definitely be on the low side IMO.
Having said that, I'm not sure what range I would give, if asked.
From DoS and AILA angle, increase in upgrades (EB3 to EB2 portings) include all countries, while many try to perceive as 'India' specific.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I included M & P in my ballpark estimation. I feel that the spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C will be less compared to last year. How much less? Or How much is expected spill over from EB2 ROW to EB2 I & C? That part I am guessing that it would be from 8K to 12K.
June 2011 visa bulletin predictions:
Interesting read: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ctions-eb.html
I agree with the views expressed in the blog.
EB3- China could advance to 01 July 2004
EB3-Philippines could advance to 01 October 2005.
EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 October 2004.
EB3-ROW could advance to 01 October 2005.
EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
EB3-India could advance to 22 April 2002.
EB2-India would see movement till 15 July 2006 (assuming DOS would be interested in gauging some more EB3 to EB2 upgrade demand for July visa bulletin).
EB2-China could advance to 08 August 2006.
I found this poll in the same website referenced above. In 2006, out of total 441 poeple who took the survey, about 20% are upgrades in 2006. 2003, 2004, 2005 are 9% (39). 2007 is 15% as of now but as mentioned in my earlier post, my company started porting for people upto 2006 this year but said they will revisit for 2007 next year since they may meet 5 year criteria for EB2. I would say, eventually 2006 would be close 30% plus and 2007 would also be 30% plus of the 441 people. This data truely suggests some headwind in regards to porting but this data may not mean anything, if the total no porting cases is already estimated 4-5-6k and this data provides just the split up of the dates.
http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455
Spec, Teddy, Q - Your thoughts please.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
FY2011 Q1 PERM data doesn't look like supporting AILA statement. If we assume most of these filings are Porting only cases then it will be good in the long run since 2008 and 2009 got very less PERM approvals?Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
True.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
One needs to also understand that ROW porting is already baked into ROW PERM approvals. So the only porting that matters for EB2IC is EB3IC porting. Although teh estimates are 4-6K, yes it is possible that the PERM approvals may be heavily tilted towards porting rather than real NEW labors for EB2IC.
Personally although I do not believe this to be too big a problem, if somebody is concerned about this then just focus on EB2IC porting and find out how much that is since as I said earlier ROW is already baked into ROW demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree with your comment, except China porting. EB3C only 3.5k cases between their current PD and August 2007.
I have posted this earlier and i modified it based on current VB PD,Quote:
Originally Posted by parsvnath
"When talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before July 2006 Vs after July 2006. There are about 48K EB3I pending with priority dates before July 2006 compared to about 10K EB3I between July 2006 and August 2007 . Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD)"
I am not talking about ROW since Q and others prediction already account for ROW demand (regular&porting). China got only 2.4K EB3 pending between April 2004 and Aug 2006 ( China EB2&3 PD's from May VB)
All in all, EB2I PD movement can only be slowdown by heavy porting from EB3I-EB2I!
I have read the comments posted veni and Q, regarding PERM and I-140 approvals and ascertain the number of porting cases.
There are many classic cases such as the one following. My friend's EB2 PERM was applied in April 2007 to Atlanta center and he did not get approval for July 07 fiasco. Company applied a EB3 substitute labor in July 07 fiasco with PD of 02/06/2007 (mine is 02/20/2007). He got his EAD and AP thru that EB3. In the mean time, his EB2 PERM was approved in December 2007. He applied for I-140 on the EB2 case in April 2008, which was approved in December 2008. Then he requested for porting EB3 India to EB2 India, which was noted by USCIS in Sept 2009. I know many friends of mine who did similar porting long ago. Such cases are not tracked any where.
gcwait2007,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
I see lot of people posting these classic cases but what % of pending EB3I reflects this trend is the determining factor in driving EB2IC dates forward.
If we look at EB3I inventory from JAN 01 2007 till AUG 2007, there are about 50K cases, what % of these cases is already ported or in the process or going to be …?
EBI - PERM Certification Data:
There are about 3.9K PERM approvals for IND after AUG 01, 2007 from FY 2007 PERM disclosure data followed by 16.5 K in FY2008, 11.3K in 2009,28.9 K in 2010 and about 9.3K in Q1 2011. So total 75.3 K PERM certifications for IND since July 2007 till Q1 FY 2011, and assume another 9.3 from Q2 FY 2011.
Here is my worst case scenario:
If we take 50% of all certified PERM for IND are eligible for EB2 and 50% of them are “porting” cases then from FY 2010 and Q1-Q2 FY 2011 PERM numbers
Total (28.9 +9.3+9.3) = 47.5K
EB2 (50% of the above) = 23.75K
EB2 (Porting only) = 11.87K
i-140 approvals for the porting = 10.0K(after assuming 15% rejections)
This will reflect about 22K i-485 ( EBI porting only) -- this is 46% of EB3I inventory (JAN 2003 - AUG 2007)-- Extremely Unlikely
Note: I assume If someone applied for PERM for porting in FY 2009 they must have gotten GC by now or counted in the Inventory otherwise dates shouldn’t have moved forward in May 2011 VB.
Now let’s look at our projected SOFAD
EB1 – 18 -22K
EB2-- 12-15 K (including M&P)
EB2IC~6K (FY 2011 regular quota)
EB4-5 – 8-10K
Lower Bound = 44K (including EB2IC regular allocation)
Upper Bound = 53K (including EB2IC regular allocation)
Now look at 10-01-2010 Inventory data for I&C
EB2I – 24.2K
EB2C – 11.4K
Porting – 22.0 K
assume CP – 0.4K
Since processing time is about 4 months PWMB (5K) cases until July 2007 may not be able to get a VISA number in FY 2011, with the above worst case scenario demand of 58K, I believe we should at least hit FEB 2007 with the lower bound and JUNE 2007 with the upper bound.:o
veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I think there is a mistake in the FY2010 PERM figure you are using. India received 28.9k (28,930 of 70,237 to be exact) not 6.7k as you are using for FY2010.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for catching it, i have corrected it in my post. Basically it is adding another 10k for porting numbers and bringing forecast, in each case, by two months.
Veni
Instead of so many elaborate calculations and extreme assumptions ...do you think that one can use the following simple logic :
1. Spillover is not applied until Q4
2. EB2IC quota is 5.6K
3. EB2IC dates haven't retrogressed
4. EB2IC inventory hasn't grown
1+2+3+4 => Max EB2IC porting for dates that are current = annual EB2IC quota i.e. 5.6K
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am Okay with your, Spec and Teddy's porting projection. I presented this elaborated calculations for those still questioning our porting calculations by referring to AILA/DOS/USCIS optimism. Also just to see what could be the worst case scenario, which (almost 50% of EB3I porting) is extremely unlikely.:D
QQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Probably that is something I wanted to point out that to it seems kind more than perfect (and a paradox) that while the dates have not retrogressed, they didn't move further as well( the last bulletin move is different bcos of part of 12K thingy). Somehow porting estimate seems to be balancing out with 2800 Eb2I quota, which is something I find hard to believe.
To me it seems, that they do not want to retrogress(or fluctuate dates) in the middle, until the spillover allocation where they will eventually have to move dates forward anyway.
And of course, my this is just an opinion , sans fact/data unlike you guys.
Don
Thanks. Good point. Agreed that hard to believe porting is exactly equal to EB2IC quota. The chinese dates actually moved forward (even before the 12K EB1 FD announcement) ... so their number is less than 2.8K for sure. That leaves us w EB2IC porting. Its anybody's guess at what level of porting DOS would retrogress. But you wouldve thought that they would warn in one of the newsletters that EB2I dates might retrogress in Q2/3 due to oversubscription.
Just some thoughts .... don't really have good data to say eitherway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by donvar
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I believe you mean half year EB3I-->EB2I Porting = Full year quota.
I mean full year quota = full year porting.
Anyway ... there is only so much we can beat this topic!
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
With respect to fact/data, direct porting data is going to be quite difficult to lay hands on. CIS, in all probability, is never going to reveal the subcomponents in EB2/I-485 approvals. However this is what I see in FY10. Of course as can be seen easily, during the period of retrogression, 2800 allocated visas for India just vanished. And last year India spillover was about 14700. Allocated visas were 2803. Inventory data shows a reduction in the pending cases by 14100. Therefore, approximate number of visa claimants who did not appear in the inventory between October 2009 and 2010 seems to be 2800+600 and that would be only 3400 for India alone. This number might be even less as there seems to be ~1000 still pending from that inventory. These cases might have been abandoned or rejected even after preadjudication. Did I get the numbers wrong? Correct me as all I have is the inventory data to go by.
PS: Now that CIS says that the upgrades are higher, probably it is double the last year's and that means it is 6.8k. This we may know when Oct2011 inventory comes out :)
anuran,Quote:
Originally Posted by anuran
You forgot the CP numbers. Spec provided CP breakdown in post#509
"EB2
Country ---- Total --- -CP- --- % CP -- CP FY09
China ------- 6,505 ---- 70 -- 1.08% -- 1.18%
India ------ 19,961 --- 102 -- 0.51% -- 0.74%
Mexico -------- 817 ---- 22 -- 2.69% -- 2.06%
Philippines - 2,162 --- 137 -- 6.34% -- 6.59%
ROW -------- 24,427 - 1,167 -- 4.78% -- 3.11%
Total ------ 53,872 - 1,498 -- 2.78% -- 2.76%"
Thanks veni001. That is another 102 EB2 cases not on the inventory. As they still fall within the 2800+600 group, and considering that the upgrading cases among the 102 CP cases is negligible, it would actually cost the estimated porting numbers in FY10 (~3400 to ~3300). Cheers.
Hey all, I just got a wild thought, and just for sake of noting it down i am writing it here.
Is it possible that DOL(DOL/DOS/USCIS in conjunction) has delibrately stopped processing PERM filings for last 2 months ? And that it may not process PERM for another 2 or 3 months ?
If they(DOS) want to do something like july2007(or even half of that - like moving cutoff to end of 2009), they may want to restrict very fresh applicants.(less load on uscis), because they certainly want to retrogress it back after moving aggressively.
May be i am just having a day dream ;) Good Luck Folks ! Hope everyone gets atleast an EAD/AP very soon.
If you are interested....
EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III
Looks like another worst case scenario porting calculations.....!!??:)
ravi.shah,Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
Why would they?
Ravi,
Do you have data to back this up or is it just a random thought that you hope is happening currently? :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
Just look up trackitt data.Quote:
Originally Posted by haripathhi
The blog is close to reality expected.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I read that the day before and the predictions are quite ominous. It seems to almost support what some internet chatter suggests. The convergence of EB2-EB3 in the near future (worst case scenario). By my estimates for this FY'11 the upgrading applications will consume >7000 visas. When an application with PD in 2003 or 2004 appears before the CIS then they will have to give them the GC. It almost sounds like a conspiracy theory, but there might be something to what ravi.shah is saying. I believe that CIS started using the spillover in May just for that purpose. If that is the case we should not see any change in the next pending inventory. We may even see an increase in the pending cases. Therefore for any movement similar to last year to happen, we might require at least 40k in spillover. Or else bye-bye to cutoff date moving into 2007 this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
To reach the PD of 1st July 2007, there are 8574 estimated EB3 to EB2 portings to be accounted in the spillover.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I feel that I should go back to my original prediction of 1st March 2007, after seeing the portings estimation.