Kd2008,
In case CO actually used these published numbers, what do you thing the cut off date for EB3 ROW will be? My PD is 07/15 and I hope I will be current.
Thanks.
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Kd2008,
In case CO actually used these published numbers, what do you thing the cut off date for EB3 ROW will be? My PD is 07/15 and I hope I will be current.
Thanks.
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I am also expecting considerable movement for EB3-ROW in the forthcoming VB.
I'm not convinced the number swap between EB3-ROW and EB3-P works entirely.
For EB3-ROW to have reduced to 150 would mean that they used 3,400 from the Demand last month. That's more than double normal usage, which isn't borne out by Trackitt EB3-ROW approval numbers.
EB3-P numbers post 2006 would increase 1,825 or about 80% compared to the previous month. Given the high CP % for EB3-P that's not impossible, but still seems unlikely at this stage, given how slowly they are currently moving.
KD/Spec,
Let me explain what I meant, there were 6275 pending EB3-P cases as per April Demand data. 225 visa's issued. So the total demand will be 6050.In the May demand data for EB3-other countries there is a demand of 7825. 7825 - 6050 = 1775. So 1775 is the possible demand for EB3-ROW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Thank you for the explanation.
I agree that EB3-P should be about 6k and EB2-All Other Countries should be about 2k.
Thinking about it further in the way you have framed it, I think the 150 was copied from EB3-M by mistake and suspect that (since the PDF was created from Excel 2007) that the number for EB3-All Other Countries may be derived from a formula
i.e. EB3-All Other Countries = EB3(Total) minus EB3-C minus EB3-I minus EB3-M minus EB3-P
So the mistaken low figure in EB3-P caused EB3-All Other Countries to increase.
That assumes that the EB3(Total) figure of 51,200 is correct.
If EB3-P had no increase in 2007 cases, it would be 6,000 and that would make EB3-All Other Countries 1,975.
I think that is exactly what you are saying as well, albeit using very slightly different numbers. In any case, they are close enough to make no difference.
That brings another question, if our analysis is correct, nobody verifies the demand data before publishing?!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The Demand Data has been revised with updated figures.
EB3-P now shows 5,975 and EB3-All Other Countries shows 2,000
Is there any way we can say most of the 485 applications filed in Feb and March of 2012 has been pre-adjudicated from the DD?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With 2000 for EB3-ROW is bellow montly allocation, so I hope it will follow EB2-I pattern and move 6 months per VB for a couple of VBs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
A friend of mine has the same situation.
PD March 2005. Got an RFE for 485 in Feb 2013. He responded. Now waiting for dates to move.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
geterdone,Quote:
Originally Posted by geterdone
I'm sure we can say most of those cases have been pre-adjudicated now. The numbers aren't changing very much now.
I don't think we can ever say all of them have been pre-adjudicated and pre-adjudication doesn't mean a RFE can't be raised in the future.
If the porters interfiling with PD after 2005 are not counted in DD-- Then Eb2-I had it.
I can not say glass is half full or half empty. There would be no glass at all, unless something happens
With the trend, EB2-I progression would be to have 2 years gap with EB3-I (2 years gap is the driving force and time taken for PERM and new I-140).
Only a few outsiders might sneak in in last quarter every year
Thanks Spec for updating, Happy to see the spread sheet error is rectified. Hopefully the NEWS cheered up our EB3 ROW folks
.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
They sound less freaked out on Trackitt.
The way I see it, May is the last month that CO can move the dates forward and reasonably expect new AOS cases to be adjudicated before year end.
At the end of March, EB3-ROW appear to have used about 13k and that will rise to 15-16k by the end of April. The movements to date might eventually result in a further 2k Demand.
EB3-ROW can reasonably expect at least 26k this year.
That leaves 8-9k Demand to generate for visas available in FY2013.
2k visas has represented about 6 weeks movement in the COD to date, but that may drop to only 4 weeks if the density is high around July 2007 and beyond.
9k Demand would need 6-9 months forward movement to cover the gap, if the assumption was that all cases generated would be approved, so that is the bare minimum required.
If this doesn't happen, CO still has the possibility of moving the dates a long way forward later and using the faster CP cases to fulfill demand, but they would only represent 20% (being very generous).
The joker in the pack is assuming that DOS/USCIS are reporting all the numbers.
If visas are wasted, EB3-P are sitting there ready to use any until they hit their overall 7% limit, after which EB3-I could use them.
I hope that doesn't happen, because it is an entirely avoidable scenario.
Whether CO does that or not is an entirely different question - he has not previously shown any particular love for EB3-ROW.
Yeah, EB3-ROW seems less bothered, or they are anxiously waiting for VB to be out.
I do think that USICS possibly may have some pending inventory, yet to adjudicate. So not in demand.
Considering the general processing timelines for new I-485, 3-4 months. May is the best bet that controller have, June being the latest. As this oppurtunity is only presented to him once in few years the movement may not have logic. He may want to build his demand for the next couple of years. He will have four bulletins to play his strategy starting May.
Yes, to avoid visa wastage, he should move atleast 9 months, May visa bulletin may give us first hints about his thought process.
Did he recently port to EB2? If yes, when and do you have more details like EB3 to EB2 same company, future employment, RFE Reason, etc?Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
BTW, one more... in this case his porting was done almost a year ago...
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
Ported last year to EB2. 140 was approved some 6 months ago.
EB3 to EB2 - Same company.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
The June VB will be interesting since its the end of 3rd quarter and I expect to read CO's commentary in it.
Not sure if anybody has shared this yet .... but tomorrow there is an immigration rally in Washington DC.
http://region1.uaw.org/local400/inde...9-85ac01f617d8
May Visa Bulletin Out
Link is not updated, but over the phone, Visa Bulletin is updated.
EB2 China 15 May 08
EB2 India 1 Sept 04 NO Change
EB3 India 22 Dec 02
I can confirm that, this is correct information..Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
I called in to (202) 663-1541 Number.
I am disappointed !!
Eb3row dec 07
Actually, I am not. It seems CO has a strategy mapped out and is going to follow that until CIR is enacted into law. This is better than last year's schizophrenic movement for EB2I&C. He has decided that last quarter is for big movements and he is sticking to it.Quote:
Originally Posted by tatikonda
EB3 ROW to Dec 07 is a cautious move to gauge demand. A larger movement for EB3 ROW should be expected next month.
A summary for all groups in EB2 & EB3.
EB2
China - 15MAY08
India - 01SEP04
Mexico - C
Philippines - C
WW - C
EB3
China - 01DEC07
India - 22DEC02
Mexico - 01DEC07
Philippines - 15SEP06
WW - 01DEC07
China has now caught up with WW.
Is there any indication based on China EB2 COD 15 May 2008. When Spill over gets applied CO tries to make China and India to have same date right? In that case EB2-I should atleaset reach 15 May 2008 or he has to move China date back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
At least something is moving! It would be interesting to see what kind of density appears in EB3-C/M/ROW post 07/07.
For EB2I, my default expectation is that it will catch up with EB2C by the end of the FY - so the new EB2I target is now 15MAY2008. Not bad. Went up by a month and half.
For folks disappointed with no movement in EB2I, I offer what I tell myself. As long as EB1/EB2-M/P/ROW is C, EB2I is accumulating supply - its just not showing up in the VB. The longer CO waits to uncover this accumulated supply of visas, the faster it will move when he does so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
He does not have to move EB2C back if EB2I does not catch up with it by the end of the FY. EB2C movement so far has entirely been through normal quota - and movement of EB2I has nothing to do with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
My Point is.. do we have any history that shows EB2-I did not catch up EB2-C during spill over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Based on past two Bulletins EB2C has moved one and half month.If this keeps on going this way EB2C will be Jul01,2008 before the last quarter.I think thats where EB2I can be.Just guess....Gurus know better.Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
I think that it will be only one or two additional jumps for EB3ROW before CO stop movements and starts to retrogress.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
VO should be able to get some visibility in August for people with PD prior to July 07. (4 moths from today). I do think it's almost enough to fill entire FY allocation and not wast any visas.
But CO must to have some visibility beyond September and forward and this is why he moved PD to December 07 now and probably will move it even to summer 08.
If USCIS will work slow and visibility will not be good in August we may see PD hits end of 08.
Its just weird that "lower skilled" EB3ROWs get GCs before "higher skilled" EB2Is. Does anyone else think that that's f-ed up?
He does not want to do this every year so probably will build up the pipe line for next fiscal year also. I expect a total of approximately 2 year movement in the next 2-3 VB. I would say early to mid 2009. That what he did for EB2I and probably will do for EB3ROW also.Quote:
Originally Posted by drugoi
vizcard -how do you measure the word "Skill" - only way it is measured by USCIS is by years of experience (note - education can be substituted by experience in this country), if thats the case how come EB3 lags more than 5 yrs behind EB2?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
As Spec said sometime back, USCIS operates weird sometimes and we have to just accept the weirdness (the laws that governs USCIS itself is weird, especially in this case and CIR is just gonna bring more weirdness)
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
pdmay2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
It is entirely likely that EB2-C will not received any spillover this year and will only have their guaranteed allocation of visas. In fact, I would say it is a certainty.
If EB2-C can move to a later Cut Off Date using only their initial allocation than EB2-I can with their initial allocation plus all available spillover, then their will be a gap in the Cut Off Dates between EB2-C and Eb2-I.
EB2-C can move to late 2008 based on the Demand Data and number of visas available to them. That date is likely later than EB2-I can achieve, even with the most optimistic scenario.
Such a situation has happened for a while previously in FY2011. CO explained it in the May 2011 VB.
In the May 2011 VB, EB2-I (who were using spillover visas) had a Cut Off date of 01JUL06.Quote:
Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.
Such numbers may be allocated without regard to per-country limits, once a country has reached its preference annual limit. Since under INA Section 203(e) such numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of chargeability, greater number use by one country would indicate greater demand by applicants from that country with earlier priority dates.
Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used.
Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit.
For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.
EB2-C (who were just using their initial allocation) had a Cut Off Date of 01AUG06 for the reasons stated above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
At this point they will get just maybe EAD as EB2I did last year. This country needs doctors, researchers, investors, engineers, agricultors, etc and not just IT "high skilled" EB2I. That is why we have a pool of visa numbers broked up in diffrent categories and not a big pool for everybody.
This is utter travesty Vizcard. this is a distortion created in immigration by country quota. Now EB3ROW have been moving to EB2ROW just like EB3ICs have been doing and so now EB2 is going to become clogged up. It's surprising how fast EB3ROW has moved (2 years so far this year).Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
That explains it.. Good to know CO was using spill over in May 2011, even though it was not spill over quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I'm not sure how you've arrived at that figure.
EB3-ROW finished last year at 01OCT06, so the movement through May is little more than year.
EB3-C has moved 2 years, but that seems to be due to very low demand.
Spec, Now that we know what path CO has opted for EB3 ROW movement, what is your preliminary estimate of the movement in next quarter?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am sure he has a baseline estimate of certain number of CP cases that are in the bag, some estimate of USCIS processing efficiency, and some estimate of pipeline build up.
That was happened during the implementation of Kazarian case ruling for the first time to EB1 cases . Extra 12000 visas were fallen down from EB1 to Eb2 as announced in April 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008