EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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10-29-2020, 08:43 AM
mesan123

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

Why I dont see bulletin on visa bulletin page?

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2020.html
10-29-2020, 08:44 AM
mesan123

Quote:

Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09

Someone switched job a year back, and PERM is going to be approved in November 2020 I meant this group of people are going to get a fair shot. Hope it makes sense.

it does :) was confused with your initial post ..
10-29-2020, 08:45 AM
EB2IndSep09

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlmostThere

Feels like attorneys messed it up.
IF they would have filed the applications last week THEN DOS would have known about the "real demand" AND would have moved the date much aggresively.
But probably Now DOS is moving extremely conservatively.

My attorney and several other attorneys have waited till last day to start working on applications.

Again, speculating here... nothing seems true in these times.

Same here, my attorney is going to send the file tonight. It is a deliberate act from law firms especially the big ones with large volumes to keep the DOS and USCIS in dark.
I might be wrong.
10-29-2020, 08:47 AM
EB2IndSep09

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

it does :) was confused with your initial post ..

Speaking with personal experience missed the boat in 2012 by couple of months due to the same reason and had to wait for 81/2 years to file AOS.
Or else would have received cards in Nov 2020 and now I am here still trying to push the attorney's to send the file out this month. :)
10-29-2020, 08:47 AM
mesan123

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

Just my 2 cents.. each one’s personal situations vary.. there might be genunity too.. so people will do what is best for each case.. this movement now was not guessed before this was because of covid.. this movement helped many familes

Yes EAD helps many people as it gives them another path to survive with the recent H1b changes ..
10-29-2020, 08:52 AM
mesan123

Quote:

Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09

Speaking with personal experience missed the boat in 2012 by couple of months due to the same reason and had to wait for 81/2 years to file AOS.
Or else would have received cards in Nov 2020 and now I am here still trying to push the attorney's to send the file out this month. :)

Sorry to hear that... hang in there... similar situation i missed the boat by moving jobs as my perm was pending for more than 10 months and took FT .. guess what it got approved after i moved nd could not file I-140 as moved the company(so missed ealry 2010 date which could have helped me get EAD in 2012) ... yes pretty long wait.. my file sent on 21st.. hoping your lawyer files your case soon
10-29-2020, 09:08 AM
kb2013

My FAD has been current this month. But I haven't gotten approval yet. It will be current next month as well. Any suggestions on how to get USCIS to work on my case and have it approved quick?
10-29-2020, 09:09 AM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by usvisas

Not even close.. But guess I was the closest predictor...where is my prize ....lol

I guess - its inventory building until Q1.

predictions now with November VB might change . They have inventory available for EB2 till May 2010. Searching for Rapid movement definition:confused:
10-29-2020, 09:15 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

Child ageout is a genuine reason to downgrade the application. The number of days i-140 is being processed will be deducted from the child's age in addition to the possibility of getting GC earlier. But the rest who can file straight in EB2 need to be careful. It's a risk vs reward situation. Yes EB2 does not seem to be moving for now, but that will pick up next year. Basically it comes down to this, how much risk are you willing to introduce to your application to get GC a few months faster? I am NOT trying to scare anyone here. I for one was fully supportive of people upgrading to EB2 back in the day even though it meant my EB2 application queue would have clogged up. My rationality is simple "What if the shoe was on other foot, then how would I react?". Upgrade made sense back then and downgrade makes sense now in certain situations.
10-29-2020, 09:15 AM
letmesee

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

what's wrong in downgrading now... folks gotta do what's good for them since everything is uncertain...
good call on your part on not down grading :)
10-29-2020, 09:34 AM
inspired_p

Time to start speculating December 2020 bulletin.
10-29-2020, 09:38 AM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

Just my 2 cents.. each one’s personal situations vary.. there might be genunity too.. so people will do what is best for each case.. this movement now was not guessed before this was because of covid.. this movement helped many familes

Yes EAD helps many people as it gives them another path to survive with the recent H1b changes ..

People who downgraded to get EAD when they could have applied and got EAD without downgrading is the group I am referring to.

For example, Eb3 final dates moved to March 1st 2010. A person with Eb2 petition on Feb 2010 with AOS pending decided to downgrade and interfile s what I am referring to. It is absolutely legit, can get the GC faster if the dates did not retrogress, but with the experience for last 2 years, all it does is mess up Eb3 movement and no advantage to Eb2.
10-29-2020, 09:43 AM
inspired_p

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.
10-29-2020, 09:48 AM
inspired_p

I too didn’t have any issues with upgrade before and I do not have any issue with downgrades either. It all depends on individual risk assessment. Any legal recourse should not be frowned upon.Most people stay on H1B even after getting EAD ; so that advantage is not what most people are looking for; they want to get greened as soon as possible.
And personally having wasted 6-7 months in applying Initial PERM/ I-140 and seeing my wait increased by 10 years because of that ; I can totally get the desire to do whatever is possible to reduce the time for green card even if it’s 6-7 months only. 6-7 months are more than enough to turn the world upside down if unlucky
10-29-2020, 09:49 AM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

Seems to have went back to Coming Soon
10-29-2020, 09:50 AM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

Seems to have went back to Coming Soon

Never mind. probably cached.
10-29-2020, 10:14 AM
pdc2014

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month, subdivided into each EB category using 7% country quota.

EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If uscis intent is righ,150k out of 261k will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around May2011 and Sep2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
10-29-2020, 10:18 AM
pdc2014

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month, subdivided into each EB category using 7% country quota.

EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around May2011 and Sep2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
10-29-2020, 10:21 AM
Umesh1209

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

Never mind. probably cached.

Visa Bulletin is release - https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2020.html

EB2 FAD 22-Sep
EC3 FAD 01MAR10
10-29-2020, 10:47 AM
abcx13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Umesh1209

Visa Bulletin is release - https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2020.html

EB2 FAD 22-Sep
EC3 FAD 01MAR10

Looks like USCIS allowing usage of FD again. :)

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...-visa-bulletin
10-29-2020, 11:02 AM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09

Some people were having issues especially who were refreshing many times from past week or so :)
Jokes apart, try with clearing cache.

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!
10-29-2020, 11:07 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

I won't assume it will only be 3 weeks per bulletin from now on. I do think the pace of this movement will pick-up steam eventually by all means. No way, they honor filing dates this far without that expected to happen. Not this admin.!
10-29-2020, 11:08 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by abcx13

Looks like USCIS allowing usage of FD again. :)

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gre...-visa-bulletin

Much needed. Hopefully they honor it next month too.
10-29-2020, 11:08 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

I'm in your camp on this one.
10-29-2020, 11:24 AM
longwaitgigu

We all should not forget
VB was set as of oct 12, so they definitely have no clue how many applications in eb2 and eb3
I guess December should see good forward movement and also they have to use 65000 gc per quarter

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