EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by murali83

Spec,

Great post. I for one never felt that you are pessimistic. In fact when I wrote here 3-4 weeks back that FY 2013 will just finish at Sep 30 - Oct 15 2008, I did not take take porting into account simply becos dates are U now. But that does not mean porting wont take place from Oct 2012. So if we take porting into account, FY 2013 will just land somewhere around end of July 2008 for a 20K visa supply (sofad + default 5.6K). I guess I am saying July 2008 instead of June becos there will always be some cases that will take for ever to process. So if we get 24K visas like we got this year, we may reach Oct 30, 2008.

Cheers

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murali,

I'm glad someone appreciated it. It is just how I see it based on the information available at the moment. Cautious or conservative might be a better description. I was carried away with the hoopla one year when the figures said different and I don't want to repeat that experience.

I actually pretty much agree with the dates you have mentioned. If the dates moved like this year (i.e. fast movement followed by U for much of the year) then porting numbers would be limited. As I mentioned, I think CO has probably learnt some lessons from what happened this year.

sportsfan,

Thanks for your thoughts. Please feel free to debate away. I enjoy reading your views.

While I don't necessarily always agree with everything you say, I do appreciate that you lay out your thought processes so well and counter intelligently. I hope you feel similarly the other way round.

I do think that the Visa Office under DOS and USCIS under DHS have different objectives. DOS controls allocation of visas and their approach and motives may not necessarily be entirely compatible with what USCIS might like to see. The size of the new Inventory is a case in point.

I do agree that CO did what he wanted this year despite the information that must have been available, but that seemed aimed at gathering as large an Inventory as possible.

I will say it again - healthy debate and differing opinions are a good thing. It makes us all revisit and strengthen our arguments as well as thinking about factors we might not have considered. It also allows everyone to see the spectrum of what is possible and why.

One aspect this forum is noted for is the ability to disagree politely and for there to be no fear of posting a contrary view.

Ultimately, no-one here is trying to tell anybody what to think. Take a large pinch of salt and make your own mind up based on the variety of thoughts and data available.

Apologies. Spectator. I did not mean to disrespect you. (Always, It pays to be pessimistic for a forecastor as even it turns wrong, no one will mind it)

But you have solid reasoning behind your analysis and I can not question beyond ny abilities.

Buy anyway, my take is that (w/o calculations), the procedure of 485 processing may be so time consuming that it will force the CO to forward the dates again in Q1- FY2013 to atleast to mid 2008, to use the Visa numbers supply. If someone has an estimate of approved and adjudicated numbers right now(or can predict up to Sepember 2012), then that will be uselful to know.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bvsamrat,

Yes, again, despite the full disclosure.

And your point is???

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Sportsfan - what you wrote above is quite comic yet so sad truth. Which is why it is so important to bring clarity to this whole process and make sure people understand implications on their life and career. Thanks for sharing :)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Ultimately, no-one here is trying to tell anybody what to think. Take a large pinch of salt and make your own mind up based on the variety of thoughts and data available.

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Spec - so true. Again - I think that's what people need to understand. None of us have crystal balls. We only have vague pointers that we use to make an "intelligent guess".

bvsamrat - no worries about your post. I would take Spec's point about "what's the point" completely as a matter of fact. I am sure he only wanted to understand what exactly you wanted to say.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

murali,

I'm glad someone appreciated it. It is just how I see it based on the information available at the moment. Cautious or conservative might be a better description. I was carried away with the hoopla one year when the figures said different and I don't want to repeat that experience.

I actually pretty much agree with the dates you have mentioned. If the dates moved like this year (i.e. fast movement followed by U for much of the year) then porting numbers would be limited. As I mentioned, I think CO has probably learnt some lessons from what happened this year.

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Spec,

On the optimistic side, is there any chance that the inventory released on May 3, 2012 has some already approved cases that have been counted as part of the pending inventory.

I did some filtering on Trackitt I-485 tracker and noticed that there are 12 approved EB2 India cases after May 3rd. And there are 8 new EB2 India cases with USCIS notice date of May 3rd and beyond. These two numbers are pretty much canceling each other out. So, IMHO, there will be no significant additions to or subtractions from the total pending EB2 India cases (39,577) reported in the inventory report released on May 3, 2012 for the remainder of the FY2012.

It is my understanding that the cases with the USCIS notice date of May 2nd and before are already recorded in the May 3, 2012 inventory report. I may be wrong and experts may have a different opinion on this.

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Originally Posted by murali83

Spec,

On the optimistic side, is there any chance that the inventory released on May 3, 2012 has some already approved cases that have been counted as part of the pending inventory.

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Sportsfan,

As much as I respect Spec's analysis, I would like to remain optimistic about FY2013 along with you and Q. I was one of the luckiest guys this year and I never saw it coming. My priority date is late into April, 2010 and still I got a chance to file my I-485 application. After that, everything went so smooth and within days, I received my combo card and FP was completed. I know that there is a little chance of me getting GC in FY2013 but I don't mind waiting. I am just glad that my I-485 processing time is built into my waiting time now.

Let's see what FY2013 brings us! Fingers crossed!!

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I have no stomach to argue with someone of Spec's reputation :) Yes, I agree that the steady state logical look at the things yield the picture you are pointing to. I would be however very surprised if it really turns out like this.

There are several reasons in hindsight that make me believe we have reason to be optimistic. I have said those before, and let me again repeat them without sounding too annoying.

a) The date movement of the March bulletin was very strange. However in just about a month, CO came out suddenly saying that demand was rising and that he was going to put lights out for EB2-IC. Looking at the inventory report, it seems like the March EB1 inventory spike concerned him. However EB1 inventory tapered off in April and it is unlikely that the spike observed in March would be seen again (at least in near future - we don't know what the long term holds for us).

So if the March EB1 inventory is the sole reason for the imposed retrogression or the eventual "U", then that reason has to go away soon. On the other hand, while people were applying when they were current, inventory was being collected, so CO's statements in earlier year about demand being exceptionally low were very dubious. Either way, they have some engineering plans in place and they already experimented this year by putting in very aggressive QSP. Why not next year too? Why not even in bigger force? Why should they become conservative when they should be aggressive?

b) Why the piled up EB2-IC inventory is a problem? Post July 2007, they don't have EAD/AP renewal revenue to justify keeping a stockpile of thousands of applications wasting resources and space. The longer the applications are held, the more the pain - post pre-adjuducation RFEs (is there such a thing?), EVL, AC21 handling means more work for free. That's why they should be getting rid of EB2-IC applications earlier in the year rather than later (in Q4) even if it bends laws - after all, laws really don't mean much to the USCIS :)

c) I think we can increase our ballpark for next year's SOFAD. There are already murmurs about the EB1C abuse that can become loud voices shortly. Already, we know what they are capable of (Kazarian). I find it hard to believe that without putting on brakes, they will let EB1 get continually used up like it is. I still think that this years usage is simply a "demand trickled over from last year". Next year, EB1 should give more, and EB2-IC should hit about 30K give or take.

d) One other potential reason why they might want to reduce the EB2-IC inventory fast is to speed up China. By every indication, post 2008 Chinese demand is less - maybe so less than they can become current in a couple of years. Chinese are very adept at working behind the scene, and in this case (unlike 1962), they might turn out to be our friends.

I agree that I don't have any numbers and I may have hopeless rose colored glasses. Of course, I would listen to spec too if I had to make a critical decision. But if I had nothing good to do on a bored afternoon with depressed thoughts about potentially long GC waits, I would surely read my posts :)

EDIT: BTW, my original response about the Jan 2008 becoming current was straight out from the first post on this thread from Q. Q has an even more aggressive prediction of this year.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I have no stomach to argue with someone of Spec's reputation :) Yes, I agree that the steady state logical look at the things yield the picture you are pointing to. I would be however very surprised if it really turns out like this.

There are several reasons in hindsight that make me believe we have reason to be optimistic. I have said those before, and let me again repeat them without sounding too annoying.

c) I think we can increase our ballpark for next year's SOFAD. There are already murmurs about the EB1C abuse that can become loud voices shortly. Already, we know what they are capable of (Kazarian). I find it hard to believe that without putting on brakes, they will let EB1 get continually used up like it is. I still think that this years usage is simply a "demand trickled over from last year". Next year, EB1 should give more, and EB2-IC should hit about 30K give or take.

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Sportsfan,

While I don't agree with the other points you made, I do agree on this one. EB1 usage in FY2012 was indeed high due to demand trickling over from last year. I am not sure how much more EB1 will yield next year, but it should yield a little more than this year, if not as much as fy 2011.

Cheers

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Originally Posted by murali83

Spec,

On the optimistic side, is there any chance that the inventory released on May 3, 2012 has some already approved cases that have been counted as part of the pending inventory.

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murali,

That's a good thought, since the January Inventory didn't appear to be particularly up to date. Possibly those numbers might be balanced by new applications that have also not been counted.

For the May Inventory, I don't think we would be talking about many cases, because DOS internally retrogressed the Cut Off Dates to Aug 15, 2007 on March 23 and internally made visas Unavailable on April 11, some time before the May 3 date.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

murali,

That's a good thought, since the January Inventory didn't appear to be particularly up to date. Possibly those numbers might be balanced by new applications that have also not been counted.

For the May Inventory, I don't think we would be talking about many cases, because DOS internally retrogressed the Cut Off Dates to Aug 15, 2007 on March 23 and internally made visas Unavailable on April 11, some time before the May 3 date.

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Thats right Spec, So the inventory data in all probability does reflect the true numbers out there

Header updated with very interesting I-140 Statistics.

Basically - it tells us that even if we assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far, there are 18K more are yet to come.

All the best and tear this logic apart.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Header updated with very interesting I-140 Statistics.

Basically - it tells us that even if we assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far, there are 18K more are yet to come.

All the best and tear this logic apart.

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Q - that's very interesting statistics. I have two points to add:

- there is a thread called 'EB1C Club' on trackitt. Activity on that thread has reduced significantly since last month.
- I am wondering if number of cases being added to trackitt are proportional to overall buzz on website? In another words when EB2IC was moving fast there was lot of buzz on trackitt. Did that made lot of people (including ROW) to register their cases , thus representing more percentage than normal days? If thats the case then your numbers above and over all theory you have been advocating recently makes lot of sense.

Q, Spec and other gurus....based on info available on 140s , can you now make predictions for Oct 2012 VB and where we expect EB2 I will stand.

BTW ..my primary spouse received GC already in march and I who applied ( PD Dec 07 EB2 I ) with receipt of primary spouse fell off since mine went to a different service center which in march they relaized and moved it back to NSC where primary got approved.....I have not received any rfe or anything till date and since 485 first applied ..it is almost 6 months ...does it mean it is pre-adjudicated ?

That's true sun. Trackitt ratio keeps changing since people tend to register there when there is high expectations.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

- I am wondering if number of cases being added to trackitt are proportional to overall buzz on website? In another words when EB2IC was moving fast there was lot of buzz on trackitt. Did that made lot of people (including ROW) to register their cases , thus representing more percentage than normal days? If thats the case then your numbers above and over all theory you have been advocating recently makes lot of sense.

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Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

Q, Spec and other gurus....based on info available on 140s , can you now make predictions for Oct 2012 VB and where we expect EB2 I will stand.

BTW ..my primary spouse received GC already in march and I who applied ( PD Dec 07 EB2 I ) with receipt of primary spouse fell off since mine went to a different service center which in march they relaized and moved it back to NSC where primary got approved.....I have not received any rfe or anything till date and since 485 first applied ..it is almost 6 months ...does it mean it is pre-adjudicated ?

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Making a prediction for Oct 2012 VB is too premature. However given your "primary" spouse received his/her GC already, you should receive it soon - hopefully between Jul-Oct. Sorry the fun with "primary" ... i just couldn't help it!

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

I was surprised at Democrats who were so willingly supporting Irish E-3 bill without single question even though it was racist and unfair. They make Grassley look like a hero. They would pass anything without someone to stop and ask questions.

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Well that was because E-3 was never meant as a serious bill. It was a distraction to something that republicans tried to do. So in this case - democrats acted anti-immigrant.

Q,

I have been monitoring I-140 statistics for a long time now and I do agree with your analysis. Additionally, I looked into PERM receipts. In FY 2011, there were a total of 45,084 PERM applications received as of May, 2011. That's a monthly average of 5635 applications. Now in FY 2012, DOL has received 28,750 applications as of March, 2012. That's a monthly average of 4791 applications. This is approximately 15% reduction in monthly PERM receipts as compared to last year. In a way, the LOW perm numbers corroborate the LOW number of I-140 applications this year.

Also, there is a news that the rate of denied and withdrawn PERM cases is higher this year as compared to last year.

One other thing I am noticing is that the EB3 IC applicants are getting two-year EADs. On the contrary, EB2 IC applicants are getting only one-year EADs. May be USCIS/DOS are confident based on their own estimations that the wait for EB2 IC applicants will not last more than a year?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Header updated with very interesting I-140 Statistics.

Basically - it tells us that even if we assume EB2IC has already received 32K visas so far, there are 18K more are yet to come.

All the best and tear this logic apart.

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Vedu thanks for the labor confirmation. That fits well with this data.

Regarding EAD duration for EB3IC - may be that's the max they could do under current operational guidelines / law OR may be they did that in anticipation of HR3012. I am not sure. My inclination is the former.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Q,

I have been monitoring I-140 statistics for a long time now and I do agree with your analysis. Additionally, I looked into PERM receipts. In FY 2011, there were a total of 45,084 PERM applications received as of May, 2011. That's a monthly average of 5635 applications. Now in FY 2012, DOL has received 28,750 applications as of March, 2012. That's a monthly average of 4791 applications. This is approximately 15% reduction in monthly PERM receipts as compared to last year. In a way, the LOW perm numbers corroborate the LOW number of I-140 applications this year.

Also, there is a news that the rate of denied and withdrawn PERM cases is higher this year as compared to last year.

One other thing I am noticing is that the EB3 IC applicants are getting two-year EADs. On the contrary, EB2 IC applicants are getting only one-year EADs. May be USCIS/DOS are confident based on their own estimations that the wait for EB2 IC applicants will not last more than a year?

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p.s. - Moved some of hte other posts about HR3012 to advocacy thread.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Q,

I have been monitoring I-140 statistics for a long time now and I do agree with your analysis. Additionally, I looked into PERM receipts. In FY 2011, there were a total of 45,084 PERM applications received as of May, 2011. That's a monthly average of 5635 applications. Now in FY 2012, DOL has received 28,750 applications as of March, 2012. That's a monthly average of 4791 applications. This is approximately 15% reduction in monthly PERM receipts as compared to last year. In a way, the LOW perm numbers corroborate the LOW number of I-140 applications this year.

Also, there is a news that the rate of denied and withdrawn PERM cases is higher this year as compared to last year.

One other thing I am noticing is that the EB3 IC applicants are getting two-year EADs. On the contrary, EB2 IC applicants are getting only one-year EADs. May be USCIS/DOS are confident based on their own estimations that the wait for EB2 IC applicants will not last more than a year?

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Sharing link on USCIS's criteria for 1 yr/2yr EAD:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

SmileBaba,

Thanks for the link. That makes a lot of sense now.

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Sharing link on USCIS's criteria for 1 yr/2yr EAD:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...004718190aRCRD

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I see that CM on us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com has finally leapt into life and posted some July VB predictions.

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us-non-immigrants.blogspot July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

EB3- China could advance to 15 September 2005 (5 weeks)
EB3 – ROW and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 July 2006 (4 weeks)
EB3 – Philippines could advance to 15 June 2006 (3 weeks)
EB2 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines could see cut-off date of 01 August 2011 – 01 November 2011 in coming bulletins.
EB3-India could advance to 22 September 2002. (1 week)
EB2-India and EB2-China would stay ‘Unavailable’ until September 2012.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. EB2-ROW/Others date are determined based on discussion with attorney friend.

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Other than the EB2-WW prediction , no great surprises. In fact, he does say in coming bulletins. I would be a little surprised if it happened as early as July.

Note he expects EB3-P to retrogress further away from EB3-WW, which is no surprise at all.

I have been a regular reader of this forum for the last few months. I am most impressed with the way the members treat each other. Every one respects other member and values their openion. I have been to some other popular forums but likes this one the best.

I sincerly thank everyone for their research and time they are spending. The info is very valuble for people like us. Thank you.

Random thought for sunday afternoon - If due to the Euro crisis, the EU nations end up with a political union (not happening, higher chance is of Euro disintegration but just theoretically) then the EU countries will end up with a single 7% limit instead of a separate 7% limit for each country. Irish will no longer oppose removal of per country limits :)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to 1a/ paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

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Originally Posted by cricketfan

I have been a silent follower of this thread. Had few questions so thought of posing them to Gurus

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1. Any way to know how many EB1 visas have been used for this year?

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There is no definitive way to be sure how many visas EB1 have used this year. EB1 this year is particularly complicated to forecast.

I have tried my best in this thread in FACTS & DATA. Currently EB1 may have used about 23k visas based on my calculations, heading for about 35k by the end of the year at current rates, but there is a wide error margin on this figure.

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2. How can CO say that there will not be any more movement this year? My understanding is that Q4 quota of EB1 should still be available and there could potentially be spillover?

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To service the number of visas already given to EB2-IC, CO has almost certainly given a portion of EB1's (and EB5) allocation to EB2-IC already. This means the effective quota for EB1 is now much lower than 40k. He has an expectation that EB1 will use that lower number. In the last VB, CO mentioned that a Cut Off Date for EB1 is a possibility based on current demand. That means EB1 may exceed the lower number of visas available to it. For that reason, there is virtually no chance of any further spillover from EB1 - it has already been given earlier in the year.

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3. When do you guys think EB2I Nov 2008 will be current? I know it is very difficult to answer but just trying to figure out options.

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I won't try to answer that. Everybody has widely varying opinions.

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Originally Posted by cricketfan

3. When do you guys think EB2I Nov 2008 will be current? I know it is very difficult to answer but just trying to figure out options.

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By Dec 2013. That is the safest answer I can give you. Like Spec says there are varying opinions and it's just hard to pinpoint where we land at the end of this fiscal year. That to me is the biggest driver of next year. If EB1 and EB2ROW get thru without CODs, then I can say Sept 2013 for sure. If not, probably Dec 2013. Again, take it with a grain of salt.

FYI...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...-status-online

Even for me I-485 status (which previously was unavailable) is in Acceptance stage.

Our I-485 status shows up as Acceptance too...

EB2
RD 2/1/2012