Q - I dont get 1 thing.
In the inventory data, EB1 has 2010-2012 inventory of ~15K. If they are current why is there so much inventory and if this is legit wouldnt this eat into the addln 15K SOFAD you mentioned above?
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Q - I dont get 1 thing.
In the inventory data, EB1 has 2010-2012 inventory of ~15K. If they are current why is there so much inventory and if this is legit wouldnt this eat into the addln 15K SOFAD you mentioned above?
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It felt like that. The USCIS Inventory figures were very revealing and not particularly good news, considering the size of the backlog to be carried forward to FY2013.
I have a different take on the future of FY2012.
I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date, which means 18-20k spillover has already been used and has to come from somewhere.
I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory.
EB1 seems to be relentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage. I was surprised that CO mentioned the possibility of a Cut Off Date at the end of the year for EB1 in the June VB notes. That would mean that not only had the 40k EB1 allocation been used, but also any spare visas from EB4/EB5. I don't think that is likely, but it speaks of fairly high visa consumption from EB1.
Based on the 68k EB2 figure for FY2011, EB2-non IC must have used at least 30k last year out of an allocation of 34.4k.
Trackitt numbers for FY2012 appear to be holding up compared to last year. Currently, they are slightly higher than this point last year.
I have a suspicion that the spare visas from EB4 last year is an anomaly that won't be repeated.
So if 20k spillover has to be accounted for already and we say that EB5 gives 5k and EB1 gives 5k, then EB2-non IC would have to contribute 10k. That means total EB2-non IC approvals shouldn't be higher than 24.4k.
For me, that doesn't seem plausible. I see retrogression of EB2-non IC as an inevitable certainty at some point.
That means there will not be any further visas available to EB2-IC and the Cut Off Dates will remain Unavailable until the start of FY2013 in October 2012.
The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.
I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.
But aren't we in May now? This info is probably upto Feb 2012. Correct me if I'm wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
How does low I-140 numbers in March 2012 have an effect on FY2013?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Well, I am not looking at any particular month. I am looking at all the available data (monthly demand numbers/ pending I-485 inventory report/ USCIS dashboard) from a macro perspective. I formulated my opinion based on a consistent trend that I see in these numbers. For example, an year ago, when pending I-140 inventory on the dashboard was at its peak, everybody argued how it was going to hurt us in FY2012. Now that it is at its lowest point, shouldn't we argue for the opposite effect in the upcoming year?
I didn't say anything about the remainder of FY 2012, because we have already received most of the spill over, and not much can be changed until FY2013 begins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
I agree with you on pending I-485 numbers, it doesn't look bad. But, at this point I would say we have few known variables - CO wants us to keep guessing :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Spec,
What is your analysis on date movement for FY2013, i meant where do you think FY2013 will end up at
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
"EB1 seems to be releentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage."
I see in EB1 all, the total pending now 15k, monthly usage is 2k max, that would total max 24k, even if it goes t 2.5 per month now.
How did you come up with 35-36k number?
""I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory""
EB2 non-IC average 2 months - 700/month.It is fair to assume that feb, march 2012 cases are pending and accounted for. So average should be true now and not change.
That brings EB2 non -IC to 12k max/yr, but lets assume 2X factor, still 24k/yr.
""I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date""
-This is speculation or based on trackitt data? Could be true.
I see that your gut feeling is based on CO comments and popular sentiment. Without much thought, I can also see Oct 2012 as when movement would occure, But Q has good argument. I am bit biased to optimisstic view, but there is good reasoning too.
Spec, what do you see movement in fiscal yr 2013?
After adjusting for the higher number of EB1 applications in Trackitt, EB1 appears to have reached about 21.5k approvals to date (c. 2.7k/ month). See here. If this rate continues, total approvals would be 35k.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
Based on FY2010 approvals, EB2-ROW appears to have reached about 16.8k to date (c. 2.1k / month). If the same rate continues, it would reach 26k for the full year. If EB2-MP use around 3k, that would be 29k for the full year. Using the predicted FY2011 approvals would give even higher figures.Quote:
""I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory""
EB2 non-IC average 2 months - 700/month.It is fair to assume that feb, march 2012 cases are pending and accounted for. So average should be true now and not change.
That brings EB2 non -IC to 12k max/yr, but lets assume 2X factor, still 24k/yr.
It is not true to say that everything is accounted for in the Inventory for Categories/Countries that are Current. The Inventory only shows those I-485 where the underlying I-140 has been approved. At best, only those I-140 that were Premium Processed have been captured for later months.
That is based on Trackitt data and adjusted for the higher number of Trackitt applications for post backlog approvals. I believe it is figure that Teddy agrees with.Quote:
""I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date""
-This is speculation or based on trackitt data? Could be true.
The USCIS Dashboard data for I-485 receipts is consistent with the numbers described above for EB1 and EB2-non IC.
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
One reason for low i-140 receipts/pending application could be due to slower PERM approval rate.
We can't ignore the fact that there are ~27K Active PERM cases with DOL as of 03/26/2012.
Veni,
Thanks for your input. Since I am comparing every new statistics with the similar statistics from the last year, I was curious how the current pending perm applications number compares with the last year's number. I didn't find the numbers for March, 11, but I did find the numbers for May, 2011. We had approximately 22K Active Perm Cases back then.
In summary, May, 11 has 22,200 active perm cases + 32,029 pending I-140 applications = 54,229 total number of applications.
Fast forward to March, 12, we have 27,200 active perm cases + 13,634 pending I-140 applications = 40,834 total number of applications. That is approximately 25% reduction in the total number of cases as compared to last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
One thought.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Could this finally be the effect of the suspension of PWD showing up? I have been wondering when and how it would manifest itself.
At some point, for several months, no PERM could be submitted (and thus I-140 at a later date) because of the lack of a PWD.
If it is, we might expect a corresponding surge in the numbers in future months.
As I say, it is just a quick thought.
Sorry to digress from the topic at hand but I had a quick question. Does anyone have an experience to share with regards applying for a visa (non-US) and submitting a copy of the EAD card instead of a H1B visa? Any hassles ?
Spec,
That may be a possibility, but it falls under the realm of speculation for now. Just as we don't show hyper-optimism that is not supported by the hard data on this forum, we should also not show hyper-pessimism without the hard supporting data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
Thanks for further clarifications. Your post hasn't annoyed me at all. But I have reasons to be bullish about the future. From now on until the end of FY 2012, the focus of the USCIS will be exclusively on clearing EB2 ROW inventory. In my opinion, all those PWD delays, etc. will be accounted for and cleared by September, 2012. Thus, we will start new year with pretty much a clean slate as per as EB2 ROW I-485 inventory is concerned. On the other hand, EB2 IC is currently unavailable, thus, EB2 IC I-485 inventory will also saturate soon and there will be no further additions to it. These two things combined make me stay positive about FY2013.
Please see my additional comment in red below.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
In addition to PWD delays DOL is currently practising to increase the Audits and Supervised Recruitment . Below is from the faq on SR recently published .
What are the consequences of an employer requesting to withdraw an application undergoing Supervised Recruitment?
While OFLC/ANPC may grant an employer's request to withdraw an application undergoing supervised recruitment and the employer then files a new application meeting all regulatory requirements, the future application for the same foreign worker as in the withdrawn application will be subject to supervised recruitment pursuant to 20 CFR 656.21. Additionally, where the OFLC/ANPC determines it appropriate, all other applications filed by the employer for any foreign worker or job opportunity may also be subject to supervised recruitment
Repeated requests to withdraw different applications undergoing supervised recruitment will be carefully reviewed and may evidence a pattern or practice of the employer's failure to comply with the supervised recruitment process, and may subject the employer to debarment from the permanent labor certification program for a reasonable period of no more than three years pursuant to 20 CFR 656.31(f)(1)(v).
This could also be one of the reasons for low Perm numbers.
I think people have already packed there bags for long weekend - No posts since Wednesday :)
Yes, Wishing all forum members & visitors Happy holiday weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
[QUOTE=sportsfan33;27409]This is an interesting and controversial topic.
And in my eyes, the people who are getting the most complacent are the whites! Losing the population battle to the so called "minorities" when practically the entire deck is in their favor is simply astonishing.
QUOTE]
Sportsfan, not sure why you think this is a battle? Every advanced country sees a tappering off in their growth rates. In a lot of Eurpoean countries, the growth rate is negative because people don't want to have children. Not to go off topic, but given the explosion in the world's population, the true "battle" is population control, not population growth.
Hey All,
Apologise for digressing this intereseting conversation regarding 3012 but If you guys dont mind digressing a little and providing some predictions on when EB2 - India - PD 10-Jan-2008 will be current it'd be super. As of now the dates are unavailable and I could not apply during the rush few months back because I was in appeal.
thanks in advance
chewbaca,Quote:
Originally Posted by chewbaca
I think that is an interesting question.
Please bear in mind that I am one of the more pessimistic contributor's, but I think sportsfan might be a little optimistic.
EB2 China has a lot less applications than EB2 India, which may cause a problem for CO in moving the dates.
Based on the May USCIS Inventory and the initial allocation of 2.8k visas each for EB2-C & EB2-I, China would be able to reach the end of June 2008, but India could only reach about Mid August 2007.
For EB2-IC as a whole to reach the end of June 2008 would require 16.3k plus any further porting numbers and people who missed the last boat. That probably means about 20k in total over a whole year. That also probably represents the low water mark of SOFAD possibilities.
Given that EB2-C can reach so far on the initial allocation, CO may only release 27% of that per quarter (maybe slightly more), or 757 visas. That would move EB2-C to about the end of October 2007 by the end of Q1.
I don't think CO can set a Cut Off Date for EB2-I that is later than that for EB2-C while they are using their initial allocation. A move to the end of October 2007 in Q1 would use about 5.1k visas for EB2-IC.
If the dates were to move to mid January 2008 in Q1, then around 7.9k visas would be required for EB2-IC.
While that is not impossible, it would use 44% of EB2-C initial allocation in a single quarter.
In a low SOFAD year, it would probably mean that visas would run out early again - something I do not think CO will want to repeat.
I expect a more circumspect approach to QSP in FY2013 to ensure some movement in each of the first 3 quarters with the final balance being allocated in Q4.
Now, obviously, not all cases in the Inventory will be approved, but you can apply a % to take care of those numbers if you wish.
To answer your question, it is not impossible for a Jan 10, 2008 PD to become Current in Q1 FY2013, but I think it might be sometime in Q2 before Jan 2008 dates become Current again. However, CO has surprised everybody before, so who knows!
Yes! It is very interesting. A perfect example to state - glass is half full or half empty.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
bvsamrat,Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
Yes, again, despite the full disclosure.
And your point is???
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Great post. I for one never felt that you are pessimistic. In fact when I wrote here 3-4 weeks back that FY 2013 will just finish at Sep 30 - Oct 15 2008, I did not take take porting into account simply becos dates are U now. But that does not mean porting wont take place from Oct 2012. So if we take porting into account, FY 2013 will just land somewhere around end of July 2008 for a 20K visa supply (sofad + default 5.6K). I guess I am saying July 2008 instead of June becos there will always be some cases that will take for ever to process. So if we get 24K visas like we got this year, we may reach Oct 30, 2008.
Cheers