EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Looks like the TRO has been denied.

Skpanda - I missed this post... when you say nothing to worry, this would be regarding greg siskind's lawsuit or the visa bulletin in general going forward?

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Guyz.. on the lawsuit front: There is lot of speculation going w.r.t crowdefend, govt response etc.

We had a conference call today with our lawyers. Although due to litigation policies, I am not allowed to disclose the points discussed in the conference call, I wanted to assure friends over here that there is nothing to worry.

We are happy to be where we are right now. We are channeling all our efforts and focus in the right direction. We are hoping for the best!

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Is it a good idea to downgrade from EB2 India May 2011 to EB3? Seems like EB3 India will move quicker than EB2 going forward?

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Originally Posted by cool_dude

Is it a good idea to downgrade from EB2 India May 2011 to EB3? Seems like EB3 India will move quicker than EB2 going forward?

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I don't think there is any advantage to downgrade to EB3-I for EB2-I FY11 applicants.
From FY12 onwards the applications are dense and the applicants will eventually end up in downgrading to EB3 in future.
To understand the situation here is some predictions:
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Year----------Expected GC timeframe
FY09----------+7years i.e FY16
FY10----------+7years i.e.FY17
FY11----------+8years i.e FY18-FY19
FY12----------+9years i.e FY20-FY21
FY13-FY15-----+10-12years. i.e FY2025
------------------------------------

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

From Oct Visa Bulletin. Did we have any comments on this topic earlier?

D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA
CATEGORIES.

Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 3 of Public Law 112-176, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2015. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2015, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2015..

Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5): Section 1 of Public Law 112-176 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2015. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2015, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015..

The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as "Unavailable" for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2016, those cut-off dates would immediately become "Current" for October for all countries except China-mainland born I5 and R5 categories which would be subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date..

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Originally Posted by CleanSock

Not sure about EB4 but EB5 has been extended till December 11th.

http://www.murthy.com/2015/09/30/new...hrough-dec-11/

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I haven't been able to find anything definitive about the part of EB4 that was due to sunset either.

Even if it has expired, the Non Minister Religious Worker part of EB4 would only provide a limited number of extra visas, although every bit counts.

In FY2014, usage in the EB4 subcategory made Unavailable in the October VB was 1,119 of the EB4 total of 8,287 and in FY2013 it was 831 of the 6,446 EB4 total. That's about 13% of total EB4 use.

Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?

Skpanda should know it better. But my understanding is that the TRO i.e. temporary restraining order is denied. The lawsuit should still be in good standing and there should be a hearing.

Am I wrong skpanda?

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?

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For TRO to be succeed, there should be a compelling reason for a restraining. In this case it is not a serious issue, but can be resolved through regular lawsuit unless the lawsuit drags on beyond an year. -- my guess

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Skpanda should know it better. But my understanding is that the TRO i.e. temporary restraining order is denied. The lawsuit should still be in good standing and there should be a hearing.

Am I wrong skpanda?

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I am gonna take the liberty to answer that.

TRO has been denied. The lawsuit is still in good standing. But we don't know when the hearing is going to be. It could be days, weeks or months.

Also, personally I would like to read the verdict denying TRO and the comments that judge made denying TRO.

Here is one comment that I saw from the Judge.

"It appears the Revised Visa Bulletin did not in fact substantially alter or diminish the rights of Plaintiffs and potential class members, rather it clarified an erroneous prior statement of their rights. Immigrants cannot point to any law establishing that a Visa Bulletin can create a constitutional right to due process."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2990f...er-green-cards

So basically the judge is saying that the plaintiffs' rights were not diminished or altered with a revised bulletin but agencies just corrected a wrong date pertaining to their rights. Now, this statement was only made in reference to the motion of denial of TRO. The question that needs to be asked is whether it would have any negative impact on the actual lawsuit going forward.

We would have to see when both sides present their full arguments. TRO was a long shot to be honest and as far as I understand, it was more of a strategic move to make government respond quickly and to create more noise in media. If Greg and team would have gone for regular lawsuit without asking for TRO, Government would have taken their own sweet time to respond and everyone knows what that means. They could have asked time to study the case, time to prepare the response and God knows when they would have responded because they could have always asked for more time for more preparations. It would have been like that "Taarikh pe Taarikh" scenario without TRO request.

I would neither be optimistic nor pessimistic about this lawsuit. We just have to wait and watch how it unfolds.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?

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Yes. CO believes till Q3FY09, but I believe the whole of FY09 will be cleared in FY16.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?

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Based on the statements made by CO it seems they are viewing acceptance dates as dates that can possibly be cleared in next 12 months or so. Oct visa bulletin shows 1 Jul 09 as the acceptance dates for EB2I. Which means CO thinks that the maximum backlog that can be cleared by Oct 2016 for EB2I is upto 30 Jun 2009.

It is anybody's guess whether CO is being conservative or realistic.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Skpanda should know it better. But my understanding is that the TRO i.e. temporary restraining order is denied. The lawsuit should still be in good standing and there should be a hearing.

Am I wrong skpanda?

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Yes. TRO is denied. Lawsuit is very much there. There are lot of activities both in front and behind the scenes. We are continuing to channel our efforts to get an resolution to this issue as quickly as possible.

Objective right now is to get the Govt to provide their calculations that they used to come to the conclusion to revise the bulletin. Once they do that, it will be easy to show, how they have been rolling a dice every month for years to determine the cutoff dates.

Also, do not worry about TRO being denied. Same thing happened in July 2007 fiasco. Eventually common sense prevailed.

Satyamave Jayate (Only Truth Prevails)!!

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Originally Posted by gcq

For TRO to be succeed, there should be a compelling reason for a restraining. In this case it is not a serious issue, but can be resolved through regular lawsuit unless the lawsuit drags on beyond an year. -- my guess

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As mentioned in the judgement, the burden to prove irreparable harm is very high. In this case, even though there unfortunate monetary loss/stess etc, its not life and death situation. There are few families for whom it is life and death situation such as kids aging out etc. We are hoping that Government will provide them relief immediately (There is no assurance from anybody.. just a hope).

My personal situation is very serious and may have severe consequences to me and my family (if i do not file before Nov 2015).... but not sure if USCIS will consider that.

Very well put!!

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

I am gonna take the liberty to answer that.

TRO has been denied. The lawsuit is still in good standing. But we don't know when the hearing is going to be. It could be days, weeks or months.

Also, personally I would like to read the verdict denying TRO and the comments that judge made denying TRO.

Here is one comment that I saw from the Judge.

"It appears the Revised Visa Bulletin did not in fact substantially alter or diminish the rights of Plaintiffs and potential class members, rather it clarified an erroneous prior statement of their rights. Immigrants cannot point to any law establishing that a Visa Bulletin can create a constitutional right to due process."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2990f...er-green-cards

So basically the judge is saying that the plaintiffs' rights were not diminished or altered with a revised bulletin but agencies just corrected a wrong date pertaining to their rights. Now, this statement was only made in reference to the motion of denial of TRO. The question that needs to be asked is whether it would have any negative impact on the actual lawsuit going forward.

We would have to see when both sides present their full arguments. TRO was a long shot to be honest and as far as I understand, it was more of a strategic move to make government respond quickly and to create more noise in media. If Greg and team would have gone for regular lawsuit without asking for TRO, Government would have taken their own sweet time to respond and everyone knows what that means. They could have asked time to study the case, time to prepare the response and God knows when they would have responded because they could have always asked for more time for more preparations. It would have been like that "Taarikh pe Taarikh" scenario without TRO request.

I would neither be optimistic nor pessimistic about this lawsuit. We just have to wait and watch how it unfolds.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I haven't been able to find anything definitive about the part of EB4 that was due to sunset either.

Even if it has expired, the Non Minister Religious Worker part of EB4 would only provide a limited number of extra visas, although every bit counts.

In FY2014, usage in the EB4 subcategory made Unavailable in the October VB was 1,119 of the EB4 total of 8,287 and in FY2013 it was 831 of the 6,446 EB4 total. That's about 13% of total EB4 use.

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From the November 2015 VB:

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D. EXTENSION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA CATEGORIES

An extension of both the Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR) and Employment Fifth Preference Pilot (I5 and R5) Categories was signed into law in late September. As indicated in item D of the Visa Bulletin which announced the October cut-off dates, the extension has resulted in the immediate application of the following cut-off dates for the month of October:

SR: "Current" for all countries

I5 and R5: "Current" for all countries, except China-mainland born. China-mainland born applicants are subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date.

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http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2015.html

http://www.entrylaw.com/blog/go-ask-...r-dos-to-uscis

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Go Ask Your Mother - DOS to USCIS

"Go ask your mother," is what Department of State has said to aspiring immigrants, referring them to USCIS to see whether the November visa bulletin will be honored or not. This is an embarassing slap in the face to the immigration agency, and exposes infighting and lack of communication between the two agencies responsible for managing the legal immigration process.

On Friday October 9, 2015, the State Department issued its November Visa Bulletin, the first after the October #Visagate2015 fiasco, and for the first time asked readers to look to the USCIS for answers as to whether the bulletin would be accepted. While the October visa bulletin stated, "USCIS has determined that this chart may be used...this month for filing applications for adjustment of status with USCIS," the November bulletin in contrast stated, "Visit http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo for information on whether USCIS has determined that this chart can be used...this month for filing applications for adjustment of status with USCIS." By sending immigrants over to USCIS, they're essentially saying, "Go ask your mother!" Don't ask us whether it is ok or not, just ask USCIS.

USCIS, in turn, has not updated its website to indicate whether the November visa bulletin will be accepted. This is embarrassing. If it was intentional, it is embarrassing, and if it was negligent, it is embarrassing. How can our government operate in such a way, when the stakes are so high? When the two agencies which oversee the orderly immigration process have decided to stop talking and coordinating, what can we come to expect? Can we rely upon the representations made, or will we be left guessing? What is Secretary of State John Kerry saying about all this, or Leon Rodriquez, the USCIS head? One can only assume that the agencies have run amok, and are leaderless, scattered and divided. That does not bode well for immigrants, their families, and the employers who rely upon them for critical support.

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Thanks for all your comments.

I too hope FY 2016 clears FY 2009.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

http://www.entrylaw.com/blog/go-ask-...r-dos-to-uscis

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Spec - I always thought DoS is much more in tune with EB immigration while USCIS is almost anti-immigrant.

The whole idea of accepting 485 or not based on Visa Bulletin dates is purely a discretionary policy by USCIS that can be done away with in a heartbeat. It has no basis in any law as far as I know. Correct me if I am wrong.

So USCIS is a significant reason why all the backlogged candidates are in pain.

I have said this before and repeat it again: Until the undocumented get their pound of flesh, legals will never get anything substantial in their favor from this administration. It has followed this line of thinking to the tee until now. I was surprised by the H-4 EAD regulation but that is also a weak relief and helps the H-1B lobby rather than GC community. Once the primaries for presidential election begin, this administration will wind down all efforts and stop rulemaking process for I-140 EAD etc, and everything will be politically sensitive we will be told. Nothing will get done. So stop the sending money to Greg nonsense and sending flowers to DHS nonsense. It is all a waste of time. The whole thing is rigged against us and we are pawned and played around for political gain. Keep your chin up, keep renewing your H-1, file labor again and again if needed and march on with your life.

Has anybody noticed the below statement in VB? You can easily guess whats going on b/w DOS and USCIS. In India, children do that... its called 'katti'.

"Visit www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo for information on whether USCIS has determined that this chart can be used (in lieu of the chart in paragraph 5.A.) this month for filing applications for adjustment of status with USCIS".

I am eagerly waiting for DOS/USCIS to release the numbers they use to determine cut off dates. I hope its not a dice that they throw for each category.

Edit: Never mind.. spec had already pointed this.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

See the VB section A. It clearly shows that the broken ties between USCIS & DOS after the Oct15 fiasco.
DOS has published the acceptance dates but they are asking to go to USCIS website to actually use those dates and file the 485.
The language looks like unless USCIS authorizes those dates in their website then only one should use the acceptance dates:
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Unless otherwise indicated on the USCIS website at www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo, individuals seeking to file applications for adjustment of status with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) in the Department of Homeland Security must use the “Application Final Action Dates” charts below for determining when they can file such applications. When USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for the fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, USCIS will state on its website that applicants may instead use the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications" charts in this Bulletin.
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Are you still sure about your eb2 and eb 3 predictions for 2016 ?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - I always thought DoS is much more in tune with EB immigration while USCIS is almost anti-immigrant.

The whole idea of accepting 485 or not based on Visa Bulletin dates is purely a discretionary policy by USCIS that can be done away with in a heartbeat. It has no basis in any law as far as I know. Correct me if I am wrong.

So USCIS is a significant reason why all the backlogged candidates are in pain.

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When there is not enough demand to process the GC then DOS/USCIS can make all the categories current theoretically. But in practical that is not feasible. I would tell one example.For Eb2-I I think they moved up to 2010 April. That means persons with EB2 are processed with finger print and other process and waiting just for visa numbers. So when visa number is availablethey are going to get GC within a few months and some times as early as a few weeks as all of the other processing was completed including FP and medicals. So till PD of April 2010 it willmove slowly. For example when PD April 2010 hits then at that time no one will be available to process. So DOS/USCIS do not have a demand and they can move the date very fast similar to 2012 or 2007The movement will happen until enough persons are done with FP and medicals. So PD could move fast for 3 to 6 months. In that case there might be 300k persons could file I485. But that is a scenariowill play out once in 5 years. That does not mean that they have to move PD arbitarily to give EAD to many thousands. Regarding the October VB they could have moved AD for 2009 on Sept 9th itself.But they might have made a mistake (I am sure many were upset because just they showed the cake and then got back. Instead they would not have give the cake) by time pressure and later they might have realized. We cannot say whether they are correct by legally( That will be decided by court in a few months). But it was very big mistake and thousands were impacted emotionally

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Earlier today, it said:

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Note: The Department of State (DOS) normally posts the new Visa Bulletin the second week of the month before it will take effect. The DOS Visa Bulletin is the official source of these charts. For ease of reference, below is the current chart (posted within two days of DOS’ new Visa Bulletin).

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Currently you can check that for yourself by looking at the cached page http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...&ct=clnk&gl=us (that will change over time)

Even though USCIS have not yet updated the figures to the November ones, sometime today, that section was changed to:

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Note: The Department of State (DOS) normally posts the new Visa Bulletin the second week of the month before it will take effect. The DOS Visa Bulletin is the official source of these charts. For ease of reference, below is the current chart (posted within two days of DOS’ new Visa Bulletin).

USCIS will determine which chart is effective for the following month approximately one week after DOS publishes the Visa Bulletin and we will post that chart on this page.

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It appears they forgot to take out the previous reference to two days.

Sneaky [redacted comment]!!!

EB 3 AN EB 2 PREDICTIONS for 2016 .How good they are after this visa bulletin?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Earlier today, it said:



Currently you can check that for yourself by looking at the cached page http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...&ct=clnk&gl=us (that will change over time)

Even though USCIS have not yet updated the figures to the November ones, sometime today, that section was changed to:



It appears they forgot to take out the previous reference to two days.

Sneaky [redacted comment]!!!

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Does this mean CO will move the Filing Dates for EB2 China and INDIA and republish the VISA bulletin? This shows a clear politics of fight b\w Govt Agencies.

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Does this mean CO will move the Filing Dates for EB2 China and INDIA and republish the VISA bulletin? This shows a clear politics of fight b\w Govt Agencies.

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gcvijay,

No, it means AOS applicants won't know whether they can use the Filing Date for up to a week after the VB is published because only USCIS can provide that information.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

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Spec, no one would get it wrong, people like you should enlighten us if you understand what that means... Well damage already done to us by USCIS ... So please go ahead nd explain us... Even if it is harsh truth..:)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

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Why would you get into trouble Spec. Greg is calculating demand upto Jun 2011 correctly. But I have no idea where he is getting the idea that in 2016 almost 30K visas are going to be available for EB2IC !!

Either he is confusing something or we are missing something huge. Did family under utilize by 30-50K this year?

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Our own number crunching Visa Bulletin wonk has come up with a number just over 29,000 as the number of EB-2 India and EB-2 China numbers that will be available in Fiscal Year 2016

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

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Originally Posted by Spectator

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

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Why would you get into trouble Spec. Greg is calculating demand upto Jun 2011 correctly. But I have no idea where he is getting the idea that in 2016 almost 30K visas are going to be available for EB2IC !!

Either he doesn't know what he is talking about. Or we are missing something huge. Did family under utilize by 30-50K this year?

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Our own number crunching Visa Bulletin wonk has come up with a number just over 29,000 as the number of EB-2 India and EB-2 China numbers that will be available in Fiscal Year 2016

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Q,

I'll sleep on it. I wrote a post, but I don't hold back. I don't really like to completely trash an opinion in that way. I quite like Greg and appreciate what he has done. Win or lose, it had to be done and even a loss accomplishes something significant.

You have mentioned most of the important points. Clearly you don't believe 29k for EB2-IC is remotely possible either.

29k for EB2-IC in FY2016 implies around 26k SOFAD for EB2-I, which implies 23k SO.

To reach that level, I think it would require in excess of 25k extra visas from FB assuming EB2-I have access to all the FB visas allotted to EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5 (28.6% are allotted to EB3 and unavailable to EB2).

That would be a complete failure on CO's part in FY2015 - especially since the majority of FB use Consular Processing which is completely controlled by DOS.

When asked by USCIS to calculate the COD that EB2-I might reach in FY2016 (12 months), he stated 01JUL09. That must include his best estimate for SO, since 2.8k approvals could not possibly reach that date.

By this time, CO should have a pretty good idea of the FB use in FY2015 and therefore how many extra visas might be available to EB in FY2016. At the very least, he would know the usage up to August 11, 2015. That's stated in the September 2015 VB and he would need that information to set the September 2015 VB COD for FB. The FB COD were advanced slightly more for FB1 and FB2A than normal in the September 2015 VB, but not enough to suggest that approvals were so significantly short of the preference limit for FB.

That strongly hints that the number of FB visas available to EB in FY2016 are quite low, or I am mistaken in thinking he has any idea of the number yet. If he doesn't have any idea yet, which I think is unlikely, he can't assume any number from FB when calculating the likely date. Nor should Greg's "numbers man" without explicitly stating it.

PS:- I think his estimate of demand up to 01JUL11 for EB2-I is quite low.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I don't really like to completely trash an opinion in that way. I quite like Greg and appreciate what he has done. Win or lose, it had to be done and even a loss accomplishes something significant.

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I really didn't mean to trash his opinion but my words indeed came across that way. I do appreciate what he has done. We are on the same page that win-or-lose he and his plaintiffs did something immensely meaningful. I also think CO is trying to do his part.

Anyway ... so as per the numbers yes - I don't see a path to Jun 2011 for EB2I. There is one more probability - I wonder if CO is going to implement the suggestion to NOT count dependents. If implemented that has the potential to simply clear most if not all backlog in EB.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I really didn't mean to trash his opinion but my words indeed came across that way. I do appreciate what he has done. We are on the same page that win-or-lose he and his plaintiffs did something immensely meaningful. I also think CO is trying to do his part.

Anyway ... so as per the numbers yes - I don't see a path to Jun 2011 for EB2I. There is one more probability - I wonder if CO is going to implement the suggestion to NOT count dependents. If implemented that has the potential to simply clear most if not all backlog in EB.

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Q,

I was referring to my (unpublished) analysis.

I don't think you were trashing him at all. It was quite considered.

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Originally Posted by asaxena2

Are you still sure about your eb2 and eb 3 predictions for 2016 ?

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From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028

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Thanks YTEleven

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028

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Hi YT, When do you think June 2010 could be current? I am so frustrated by missing it twice so close :(

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Originally Posted by delguy

Hi YT, When do you think June 2010 could be current? I am so frustrated by missing it twice so close :(

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The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028

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that post talks about inventory build up etc. Not sure how true that is anymore? My PD is 30Oct2009 EB2-I. In light of new 2-date process, not sure when I should expect to get current to file AoS and eventually get GC. What is your estimate for this date?

Tired of being on stangnant immi life now.

Thanks YT, I will be happy with just getting EAD than the actual GC. Waiting with EAD in hand is less of pain than doing that on H1.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.

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Thanks YT. I am EB3I Jul 09. Hopefully, I can file for AOS during CY 16 based on your forecast. Glad to know that you are still sticking to your forecast, even after the recent fiasco..

Thanks a lot YT.

I am new to this forum. Your explanation and analysis of EB3 I was really good.
My date is 23 Mar 2005 (EB3 I).
Do you still think I should be current in May 2016 ?