EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

So based on regular quota plus fb extra, what is the expected PD movement by fy2013?

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Go to page 1 where Q, Spec and others have (and update) their projections.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Go to page 1 where Q, Spec and others have (and update) their projections.

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So the prediction on page 1 still holds good after seeing no spillover from EB2 WW, and rather they may take some of EB1 spillover, and all other data that came up thereafter?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

This year to date = 9 months worth of approvals in 6 months.

6 months of year remains.

9 + 6 = 15

Overall, over 2 FY there are still 24 months of approvals in 24 months, just split asymmetrically.

The numbers pending are rolling numbers. As the old pending cases are approved, new ones take their place. There is no question of having zero pending cases, because that would require zero processing time.

USCIS have just processed the (artificially) higher number of pending cases that built up at the end of FY2012 and the beginning of FY2013 in much the same way as they processed large numbers of EB2-I cases last year.

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Spectator,

I still dont get it. May be because I dont believe the 'realization' of demand will sustained as high as seen till date. Or may be I am hung up on your predictions that July 2009 PD wont be reached even in FY 2015 and hence unable to comprehend anything further :).

As always, thanks for all the numbers and detailed explainations.

Most of us have become more conservative as we approached half year point. There will be changes in predictions as we get more data. At this point, I do not think that EB1 Spillover is required for EB2WW to stay current.

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

So the prediction on page 1 still holds good after seeing no spillover from EB2 WW, and rather they may take some of EB1 spillover, and all other data that came up thereafter?

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Just trying to add an example to specs explanation.
Let us assume that every month EB2WW demand is 10. So the demand for 3 months from 2012 fiscal(July, August, September) is 10+10+ 10 = 30. For the new fiscal there are 12 months(Ocotber to September) , 12 x 10= 120. So the total demand for this fiscal is 30+120= 150, considering the retrogression last year.

First six months of this fiscal will have 30+ 60 = 90, 30 from last fiscal and 60 form this fiscal. 90 divided by 9 months = 10, which is the monthly demand and 10 multiplied into 15 will give 150, which is the demand for this fiscal. The assumption is it took six months of this fiscal to absorb 3 months of retrogression.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spectator,

I still dont get it. May be because I dont believe the 'realization' of demand will sustained as high as seen till date. Or may be I am hung up on your predictions of that July 2009 PD wont be reached even in FY 2015 and not able to comprehend anything further :).

As always, thanks for all the numbers and detailed explainations.

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We see the prediction of Spec updated on first page as Feb/March 2008. Is it min,max for average date for EB2I?

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Originally Posted by mailmvr

We see the prediction of Spec updated on first page as Feb/March 2008. Is it min,max for average date for EB2I?

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I believe, and Spec - keep me honest, that is "min".

Reasoning is -
1. Everyone has been very conservative in the consumption assumptions. There is potential upside here.
2. Not everyone gets approved and hence dates move further in to the future.

I'd say March 2008 to June 2008 is realistic and up to Sept 2008 is stretch.

But, if the monthly quota is only allotted for Eb2WW in each of month of the financial year 2013, then the all the outstanding cases of Jul/August/September -2012 got cleared in 1st month of FY2013 itself as it has been current afterwards and hence it would be normal demand only in later months and hence a good SO is expected from EB2WW.

Can this happen?

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Just trying to add an example to specs explanation.
Let us assume that every month EB2WW demand is 10. So the demand for 3 months from 2012 fiscal(July, August, September) is 10+10+ 10 = 30. For the new fiscal there are 12 months(Ocotber to September) , 12 x 10= 120. So the total demand for this fiscal is 30+120= 150, considering the retrogression last year.

First six months of this fiscal will have 30+ 60 = 90, 30 from last fiscal and 60 form this fiscal. 90 divided by 9 months = 10, which is the monthly demand and 10 multiplied into 15 will give 150, which is the demand for this fiscal. The assumption is it took six months of this fiscal to absorb 3 months of retrogression.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I believe, and Spec - keep me honest, that is "min".

Reasoning is -
1. Everyone has been very conservative in the consumption assumptions. There is potential upside here.
2. Not everyone gets approved and hence dates move further in to the future.

I'd say March 2008 to June 2008 is realistic and up to Sept 2008 is stretch.

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vizcard,

1. That is a mid point, based on there being potential upsides and downsides. Admittedly it does reflect a fairly conservative position.
2. I have assumed that not everyone gets approved.

At the moment, I think June 2008 might result from my high end figure. My low end figure is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

March 2013 EB2 ROW approvals had roughly 20% representation of applications filed by October 2012. February 2013 approvals had roughly 33% representation of applications filed by October 2012. Hope I answered your question.

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

But, if the monthly quota is only allotted for Eb2WW in each of month of the financial year 2013, then the all the outstanding cases of Jul/August/September -2012 got cleared in 1st month of FY2013 itself as it has been current afterwards and hence it would be normal demand only in later months and hence a good SO is expected from EB2WW.

Can this happen?

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For many people, they could only submit their I-485 in November 2012 when EB2-WW became Current again. It then took several months to adjudicate those cases.

Many people also seemed to anticipate retrogression (or acted quickly when the VB was published) and submitted their applications in June 2012. However, any with a 2012 PD had to wait until November 2012 at the earliest for them to be approved. It is likely that not all cases were even pre-adjudicated by that time.

All October 2012 approvals had to have a PD of 2011 or earlier.

Approvals for cases affected by retrogression have been spread over several months - in fact it was a legal impossibility to clear them in October 2012.

CO appears to have used under-use in other Categories to enable higher than normal EB2-WW approvals in the first two quarters. This seems to have enabled the approval of the increased backlog from retrogression plus the normal demand over the first six months of the year. Approvals dropped in December 2012, which suggests CO did not have sufficient visas available in Q1 to approve all the cases, and / or that insufficient cases submitted in November 2012 were ready to adjudicate.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Approvals dropped in December 2012, which suggests CO did not have sufficient visas available in Q1 to approve all the cases, and / or that insufficient cases submitted in November 2012 were ready to adjudicate.

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I would suggest the second is true. The absolute minimum an I-485 can take is probably one month, considering that on avergae biometric appointments are being given out with a one month wait.

As an aside, USCIS hired more adjudicators earlier this FY expecting a lot of DACA applicants. It turned out that there haven;t been nearly as many applicants as expected. This may account for the faster-than-normal prcoessing times. It now seems they shipped a bunch of pending DACA applications from California and Vermont to Texas/Nebraska, so we should expect EB I-485 processing times to go back to a more norma 4-6 months rather than the 2-4 seen in Jan/Feb.

Eb2i pd - 12/1/2012 ???

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Originally Posted by jrkpsp

Eb2i pd - 12/1/2012 ???

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it depends

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Originally Posted by vizcard

it depends

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:-) :-) :-).

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

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May be or may not be. RFE can be issued any any stage of application review including pre-adjudication.

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications that are current and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

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I dont think its really 4-6 months like they publish. Last year they did quite a few within 2-3 months.

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

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In the specific example you quoted, the OP said that their EB2-I-140 had recently been approved.

It could be, that when the A-file was updated, the IO noticed there was no written request to interfile the new EB2 I-140 with the existing I-485 and the RFE was issued to ask the person whether they wished to do so (when the PD becomes Current).

More generally, USCIS are quite aware that EB2-I dates are likely to move forward in the near future.

While pro-activity is not a term I generally associate with USCIS, it is entirely possible that they are pulling files likely to become Current and pre-processing them to the point of approval (including issuing any necessary RFE), rather than waiting for them to become actually Current to begin that process.

The IBIS checks have to be not more than 6 months old at the time of approval, so these have to be updated at some point, otherwise they will have no approvable cases.

USCIS work in mysterious ways - best just to accept that fact.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

it depends

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

In the specific example you quoted, the OP said that their EB2-I-140 had recently been approved.

It could be, that when the A-file was updated, the IO noticed there was no written request to interfile the new EB2 I-140 with the existing I-485 and the RFE was issued to ask the person whether they wished to do so (when the PD becomes Current).

More generally, USCIS are quite aware that EB2-I dates are likely to move forward in the near future.

While pro-activity is not a term I generally associate with USCIS, it is entirely possible that they are pulling files likely to become Current and pre-processing them to the point of approval (including issuing any necessary RFE), rather than waiting for them to become actually Current to begin that process.

The IBIS checks have to be not more than 6 months old at the time of approval, so these have to be updated at some point, otherwise they will have no approvable cases.

USCIS work in mysterious ways - best just to accept that fact.

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Perfect explanation. Again proactiveness sometime vary by the personnel handling the case. In this case, he may have acted proactively.

First of all, great site guys. Keep up the good work.
Now the question: EB-2I with PD June 19, 2008, what are the chances for filing I-485 this year? I have never been able to file so far due to being in EB-3I.
I know it could be on the border for FY 2013, but I am hoping to at least get EAD/AP and not too worried about GC right now. If I miss in FY 2013, is there a chance they will do pipeline building again early FY 2014?

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Originally Posted by civilengineer

First of all, great site guys. Keep up the good work.
Now the question: EB-2I with PD June 19, 2008, what are the chances for filing I-485 this year? I have never been able to file so far due to being in EB-3I.
I know it could be on the border for FY 2013, but I am hoping to at least get EAD/AP and not too worried about GC right now. If I miss in FY 2013, is there a chance they will do pipeline building again early FY 2014?

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You may slide in to file 485 this year. Keep your docs ready including affidavits, etc.

No chance they'll build pipeline (without CIR) in 2014.

Just some random thoughts about various topics discussed recently -

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

2. I looked at some Trackitt numbers for EB2 ROW. Except for FY 2009 all past year approvals for the same time period- oct to april have been in the 200-300 range and lower than FY 2013. For FY 2009 it was 444 and for the year ended at 774. The actual allocation that year was ~33000.

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

thoughts comment?

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

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This year was special for EB2-ROW in that there was a wave of applications that needed to be approved due to retrogression last year. Also trackitt as a site wasn't that active back then, so not sure about the accuracy of trackitt data.
Hope the SOFAD numbers predicted are not too far off.
CO did "fix" the demand data after the release of VB. So, I hope he wasn't aware of the FB numbers when the VB was released.
EB5 has some issues related to tenants' rent or something, that's delaying approvals. Not very sure about that.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Just some random thoughts about various topics discussed recently -

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

2. I looked at some Trackitt numbers for EB2 ROW. Except for FY 2009 all past year approvals for the same time period- oct to april have been in the 200-300 range and lower than FY 2013. For FY 2009 it was 444 and for the year ended at 774. The actual allocation that year was ~33000.

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

thoughts comment?

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1. Unlikely. But even if he does, it'll move ahead in July.
2. ~33k is the norm for EB2ROW. However, this year they are dealing with the backlog due to the retrogression from last year.
3. I don't think he knew about the FB extras. The indicator is the reissue of the demand data 2-3 days after the VB for that month with the additional visas.

I know it's a little nervewracking due to all the what-ifs and lack of info. But seriously just wait for a couple more months. Everyone will have much better line of sight.

Demand Data for May bulletin out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

EB2C 6125
EB2I 42,625

Changes for EB2-I

Jan 1st 2005 --> +50
Jan 1st 2006 --> +125 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2007 --> +200 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2008 --> +350 (Net +150)
Jan 1st 2009 --> +450 (Net +100)
Jan 1st 2010 --> +600 (Net + 150)

No major change expected in this bulletin.. Moving on to the next bulletin..

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

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vizcard,

Is this the sort of analysis you were after?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

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My predictions on where dates will reach based on available SOFAD

Attachment 392

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

Is this the sort of analysis you were after?

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I was looking for monthly receipts/ approvals by Receipt Date Month as opposed to VB month. But nevermind. I found that on Trackitt.

Is a typo in the EB3 PH . I think and hope that the 150 should be at EB3ROW :)
If not that means that more than 4000 new application have been filed for EB3ROW before July 2007. :(

The EB-3-ROW numbers must be wrong. You just don;t see such a huge jump without seeing the same jump in The EB-3-M numbers.

How are the number of cases after Sep 2004 increasing with every DD?
It's hard to imagine that these are old cases(few hundreds every month) with 485 filed last year that are being pre-adjucated now.
Is it possible that CO is including the porting numbers as well? (based on interfiling requests received). I understand that interfiling can't be done when cases are not current, but recieving an interfiling
request will help CO with porting demand.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Changes for EB2-I

Jan 1st 2005 --> +50
Jan 1st 2006 --> +125 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2007 --> +200 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2008 --> +350 (Net +150)
Jan 1st 2009 --> +450 (Net +100)
Jan 1st 2010 --> +600 (Net + 150)

No major change expected in this bulletin.. Moving on to the next bulletin..

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Originally Posted by justvisiting

The EB-3-ROW numbers must be wrong. You just don;t see such a huge jump without seeing the same jump in The EB-3-M numbers.

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justvisiting,

I don't understand them either. A figure of 1,825 rather than 7,825 would have made sense.

The only possible reason would be a huge number of CP cases beyond the current COD suddenly becoming Documentarily Qualified. I don't really believe that.

The EB3-Philippines figures ARE just plain incorrect. Prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 3,700. The number prior to Jan 1 , 2012 is shown as 150, which is impossible.

I do wish they would take a little more care checking the figures before publishing them.

Spec,

It looks like EB3-P numbers got mixed up with EB3-all other countries.

MATT

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Originally Posted by Spectator

justvisiting,

I don't understand them either. A figure of 1,825 rather than 7,825 would have made sense.

The only possible reason would be a huge number of CP cases beyond the current COD suddenly becoming Documentarily Qualified. I don't really believe that.

The EB3-Philippines figures ARE just plain incorrect. Prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 3,700. The number prior to Jan 1 , 2012 is shown as 150, which is impossible.

I do wish they would take a little more care checking the figures before publishing them.

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How can demand data increase in EB2I, all belong to preadjudicated cases. So that means even after one year, pre-2005 cases are getting preadjudicated in the tune of 50 cases per month. In past 5 months demand data has increased by 50, 0, 25, 75 and 50 for pre-2005 cases.

Trackitt data does not confirm this information that more than a year ported-pending I-485 cases have been approved very recently. It may be possible that demand data includes current I-485 also for pre-Oct 2004. Then it is a worrying sign that cutoff date may retrogress further.

If these pre-2005 are not all pre-adjudicated numbers then it means same is also not true for pre-2008 demand data numbers.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Spec,

It looks like EB3-P numbers got mixed up with EB3-all other countries.

MATT

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Yup, I agree. If you switch EB3-P and EB3-ROW for Jan 2012 row, you get close to reality. I am expecting a strong movement forward for EB3-ROW in upcoming bulletin.