EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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02-11-2011, 05:53 AM
kd2008

trackitt: will I-140 filings decline?

Cases below are all categories regular+premium
USCIS Received Date Applications Filed RFEs Cases Approved Cases Denied % Approved Average Approval Time
February 2011 7 0 0 0 0% N/A
January 2011 77 5 17 0 22% 8 days
December 2010 89 7 28 0 31% 17 days
November 2010 118 9 45 0 38% 24 days
October 2010 121 9 48 0 40% 28 days
September 2010 149 15 77 0 52% 1.8 months
August 2010 191 23 106 1 55% 1.9 months
July 2010 195 23 122 1 63% 2.5 months
June 2010 203 32 153 3 75% 3 months
May 2010 179 25 148 2 83% 2.7 months
April 2010 202 34 173 2 86% 1.9 months
March 2010 162 23 147 1 91% 1.3 months
February 2010 130 24 115 1 88% 1.5 months
January 2010 106 13 94 2 89% 1.6 months
02-11-2011, 08:34 AM
getgreensoon

PERM Processing

Saw this posting on the Fragomen website:

PERM Processing

DOL has updated its estimated processing times for PERM applications. As of February 4, 2011, DOL was processing non-audited PERM cases that were filed in February 2011, audited cases that were filed in January 2009 and appeals that were filed in June 2008. Government error appeal cases are current.

Agency officials also reported on approval rates for labor certification applications that have been placed into supervised recruitment. Approximately 65% of these cases are denied, 23% are withdrawn by the employer, and just 12% are approved.
02-11-2011, 08:37 AM
leo07

@kd2008
Thanks for the data . I'd be curious to run a regression on PERM approvals with a lag( 1 - 12 months). That could throw some light on the trend for next 6 months.
02-11-2011, 09:07 AM
qesehmk

KD thanks. This forum software is not quite rfiendly when posting tables. Can u pls post as jpg to understand better. Also a question - whats teh sourec of the data.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Cases below are all categories regular+premium
USCIS Received Date Applications Filed RFEs Cases Approved Cases Denied % Approved Average Approval Time
February 2011 7 0 0 0 0% N/A
January 2011 77 5 17 0 22% 8 days
December 2010 89 7 28 0 31% 17 days
November 2010 118 9 45 0 38% 24 days
October 2010 121 9 48 0 40% 28 days
September 2010 149 15 77 0 52% 1.8 months
August 2010 191 23 106 1 55% 1.9 months
July 2010 195 23 122 1 63% 2.5 months
June 2010 203 32 153 3 75% 3 months
May 2010 179 25 148 2 83% 2.7 months
April 2010 202 34 173 2 86% 1.9 months
March 2010 162 23 147 1 91% 1.3 months
February 2010 130 24 115 1 88% 1.5 months
January 2010 106 13 94 2 89% 1.6 months

GGS, this is good. What is supervised recruitment. Is that not required for all PERM applications?

Quote:

Originally Posted by getgreensoon

Saw this posting on the Fragomen website:

PERM Processing

DOL has updated its estimated processing times for PERM applications. As of February 4, 2011, DOL was processing non-audited PERM cases that were filed in February 2011, audited cases that were filed in January 2009 and appeals that were filed in June 2008. Government error appeal cases are current.

Agency officials also reported on approval rates for labor certification applications that have been placed into supervised recruitment. Approximately 65% of these cases are denied, 23% are withdrawn by the employer, and just 12% are approved.
02-11-2011, 10:50 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD thanks. This forum software is not quite rfiendly when posting tables. Can u pls post as jpg to understand better. Also a question - whats teh sourec of the data.

GGS, this is good. What is supervised recruitment. Is that not required for all PERM applications?

Q,
When the certifying officer suspects the employer did not follow appropriate recruitment efforts then they will notify employer to go through DOL supervised recruitment process.

Especially in tough times, DOL has to do its best to safeguard jobs for American Citizens/GC holders first.

“Supervised Recruitment is one of many tools the Department of Labor uses to safeguard the integrity of the permanent labor certification process and protect job opportunities for American workers,” said Solicitor of Labor Gregory F. Jacob.

DOL estimates that Supervised Recruitment will add at least 180 days to PERM processing!
02-11-2011, 10:50 AM
kd2008

Q, the source is trackitt - its in the title of my post. I prefer posting it this way coz then one can then copy and paste in it in excel sheet easily.
02-11-2011, 11:07 AM
qesehmk

Thanks veni. This is useful. So in other words .... it will not only slow down the process but will also reduce approval rate (12%!!).

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
When the certifying officer suspects the employer did not follow appropriate recruitment efforts then they will notify employer to go through DOL supervised recruitment process.

Especially in tough times, DOL has to do its best to safeguard jobs for American Citizens/GC holders first.

“Supervised Recruitment is one of many tools the Department of Labor uses to safeguard the integrity of the permanent labor certification process and protect job opportunities for American workers,” said Solicitor of Labor Gregory F. Jacob.

DOL estimates that Supervised Recruitment will add at least 180 days to PERM processing!

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, the source is trackitt - its in the title of my post. I prefer posting it this way coz then one can then copy and paste in it in excel sheet easily.

That's ok KD. Its just hard to understand and a problem is that then all blanks are omitted and numbers appear in columns that they do not belong to - rendering the data inaccurate.

As per 140 trend, the inventory is increasing indicating delay in approving.
02-11-2011, 01:47 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

M&P are no different than India/China. So if MP get advantage then so do IC. Right?

IC are different to MP.

MP receive extra Visa numbers in EB3 because the usage of EB Visas by MP in all other EB Categories is low. They can receive a large amount in EB3 and still fall under the overall 7% limit of 9,800 (based on 140,000 EB visas).

IC cannot benefit in the same way, because they use the full quota in other EB Categories, in particular in EB1 and EB2. If IC used very few visas in EB1 & EB2, then IC could benefit in the same way as MP.

I suspect it is not possible for other individual Countries, since they are aggregated into a group called ROW and the rules therefore apply to the Group. I am not certain of that, however.
02-11-2011, 01:51 PM
srinivasj

Hello,
I have a question..how come all of a sudden the predictions of EB2-I became pessimistic(oct-o6) to optimistic( feb or mar-07) over last 2-3 weeks..
are we estimating more EB1 spillover than we thought of or estimating low EB3-EB2 porting..
Regards..
02-11-2011, 02:01 PM
alex99

March VB OUT Guys
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5337.html
02-11-2011, 02:02 PM
veni001

March 2011 Bulletin is out

Summary compared to FEB 2011 Bulletin,

EB2I- No change
EB3I - Three week forward movement

EB2C - One week forward movement
EB3ROW - 3 months forward movement

March 2011 Bulletin Link
02-11-2011, 02:28 PM
getgreensoon

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Summary compared to FEB 2011 Bulletin,

EB2I- No change
EB3I - Retrogressed by three weeks

EB2C - Retrogressed by One week
EB3ROW - 3 months forward movement

March 2011 Bulletin Link

EB2 China moved forward by one week
02-11-2011, 02:52 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by getgreensoon

EB2 China moved forward by one week

Good catch, i overlooked, Why would EB2C retrogress:( my bad.
02-11-2011, 02:52 PM
qesehmk

You make an excellent point here. Agreed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

IC are different to MP.

MP receive extra Visa numbers in EB3 because the usage of EB Visas by MP in all other EB Categories is low. They can receive a large amount in EB3 and still fall under the overall 7% limit of 9,800 (based on 140,000 EB visas).

IC cannot benefit in the same way, because they use the full quota in other EB Categories, in particular in EB1 and EB2. If IC used very few visas in EB1 & EB2, then IC could benefit in the same way as MP.

I suspect it is not possible for other individual Countries, since they are aggregated into a group called ROW and the rules therefore apply to the Group. I am not certain of that, however.

Quote:

Originally Posted by srinivasj

Hello,
I have a question..how come all of a sudden the predictions of EB2-I became pessimistic(oct-o6) to optimistic( feb or mar-07) over last 2-3 weeks..
are we estimating more EB1 spillover than we thought of or estimating low EB3-EB2 porting..
Regards..

Not sure what you arereferring to. Head of the thread talks about Nov 2006.
02-11-2011, 02:54 PM
qesehmk

Thanks. No surprises again.
Good news is EB2C moved ahead 1 week (not retro veni!). This move indicates that there is little to none porting in EB3C which probably means ROW also shouldn't have any porting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Summary compared to FEB 2011 Bulletin,

EB2I- No change
EB3I - Retrogressed by three weeks

EB2C - Retrogressed by One week
EB3ROW - 3 months forward movement

March 2011 Bulletin Link
02-11-2011, 03:03 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks. No surprises again.
Good news is EB2C moved ahead 1 week (not retro veni!). This move indicates that there is little to none porting in EB3C which probably means ROW also shouldn't have any porting.

Agreed,
May have very little, which shouldn't be a big factor anyway!
02-13-2011, 02:24 AM
qesehmk

50K views !

guys we reached 50K views today. Its a small milestone but still that's significant. I hope this thread continues to be as useful as it has been previously. Please don't hesitate to express your views or questions.
02-13-2011, 09:00 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

guys we reached 50K views today. Its a small milestone but still that's significant. I hope this thread continues to be as useful as it has been previously. Please don't hesitate to express your views or questions.

Q,
Great, Congratulations.
02-13-2011, 12:08 PM
whistleblower

Well this is my point. When PERM is audited and goes into supervised recruitment by DOL (In supervised recruitment, DOL official conducts recruitment for the employer), approval rate is 12 %. See the difference in approval rate. I am not saying that all PERM should be audited. But approving PERM in 4-5 days, do you think they are even getting fair scrutiny? When PERM was taking 7-8 months, at least you would think it was getting it's fair share of attention. Some one would argue that DOL was taking so long because they were backlogged. This is B.S, when economy was terrible in 2008-2009, there were hardly any PERMs filed. This could be inferred from I-485 ROW inventory for these years.

If you will go into trackitt and see PERM tracker, there is hardly anyone who is filing in EB3. So are we saying that all these PERM with EB2 requirements legitimate. There is no way this is true. Even if percentage of this is true, it is difficult for me to believe there are no U.S Citizens eligible for these jobs. 73,000 PERMs in 2010 when there is 9.5% unemployment!!!

If most of the people over here think PERM approvals within 3-4 days is alright, well it is upto them to take a backseat and let things happen how it is happening right now. I feel this is not alright and I would like to bring it to someone's attention. I am sick of people recommending others on forum to upgrade cases because it will only take 4 days for PERM, 15 days for I-140 and 4 months for I-485. Getting GC in 5 months is a joke. There is difference between EB3 and EB2 requirements, people receiving GC in EB2 should be one who deserves it. Its pity that people on forums are now suggesting getting online Masters to be qualified for EB2. Online Masters, are you kidding me?

Quote:

Originally Posted by getgreensoon

Saw this posting on the Fragomen website:

PERM Processing

DOL has updated its estimated processing times for PERM applications. As of February 4, 2011, DOL was processing non-audited PERM cases that were filed in February 2011, audited cases that were filed in January 2009 and appeals that were filed in June 2008. Government error appeal cases are current.

Agency officials also reported on approval rates for labor certification applications that have been placed into supervised recruitment. Approximately 65% of these cases are denied, 23% are withdrawn by the employer, and just 12% are approved.

Q, Spec. I totally agree that Senator Grassley is not proponent of legal immigration. But to me what's wrong is wrong. I would like to stand up for it. if this would end legal immigration, well that's good. Everyone can get out of this rat's race and move on. I do not want to end up as one of those who just have a story to share. I have an option and I will like to pursue that. It is upto an individual to take or leave this option. Everyone has their own opinion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I do sympathize with your situation. It is totally unacceptable for audits and appeals to take so long.

I would suggest not getting into bed with the devil, just because there is a particular aspect of the system you are unhappy with.

Everybody has different aspects they don't like. If everybody contacts Grassley with their pet hate, then pretty soon the EB Immigration system will be closed down, or at least the bar will become so high that NOBODY can qualify. He certainly has no interest in helping YOU.

Grassley would just love that. He hates Immigration.

It is better to focus on ensuring that DOL becomes more efficient at processing Audits and Appeals and contact the Congressman or Senator relevant to that aim.

There are a couple of interesting threads on ImmInfo Help Grassley kill legal immigration and Article regarding EB2 India
02-13-2011, 01:28 PM
MorningSun

To Whistleblower

Dear Whistleblower: There are things in life that are worth fighting for and there are things in life that are not. I don't see a problem with faster adjudication of PERM filings, for that matter even obtaining an online degree in order to qualify for EB2. There is nothing illegal about it.

"73,000 PERMs in 2010 when there is 9.5% unemployment"
This statement is not accurate. First of 9.5% unemployment is not a valid figure. Second, total unemployment is different from unemployment in "highly skilled" area.

"Getting GC in 5 months is a joke."
I would like to point out that these people in EB3 have been waiting for years, I ask you what is wrong with them porting to EB2. Nothing illegal. Picture this, I am in EB2 row now, if I happen to qualify for EB1 due to my "exceptional research" in the field of "enjoying time with my family and feeling happy with what I have"; I will apply under EB1. I am sure you would agree.

"I feel this is not alright and I would like to bring it to someone's attention."
If you would like to put in the effort, then seek something that will bring relief to maximum number of applicants.

"Spillover" is the best event that happened to EB2, I hope there will be more in the near future.
02-14-2011, 09:59 AM
qesehmk

WB, first and foremost, everybody has a right to say their mind. So do you.

I think differently on this topic. I think the question of whether there are enough americans to do the job is a bit subjective. At some level I feel if that criteria were applied in its letter then there would hardly be 1000 jobs all across US that will satisfy it. I think that lawmakers always intended to keep it broad enough to mean that the labor market in a certain area is having difficulty identifying such labor. In other words it means they didn't want business to bear extraordinary costs in incurring such labor (not that such labor didn't exist). Now yes that sounds unfair to American citizens and yes at some level it is. However, as immigrants EB3s have every right to demonstrate that they fall into EB2 or as H1 a person has every right to try for his GC. I would never try to suspect another person's efforts simply because there are proper agencies that have that mandate and there is tremendous anti-immigrant sentiment running around. Enough said on this subject from my side now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by whistleblower

.....
If you will go into trackitt and see PERM tracker, there is hardly anyone who is filing in EB3. So are we saying that all these PERM with EB2 requirements legitimate. There is no way this is true. Even if percentage of this is true, it is difficult for me to believe there are no U.S Citizens eligible for these jobs. 73,000 PERMs in 2010 when there is 9.5% unemployment!!!

....

Q, Spec. I totally agree that Senator Grassley is not proponent of legal immigration. But to me what's wrong is wrong. I would like to stand up for it. if this would end legal immigration, well that's good. Everyone can get out of this rat's race and move on. I do not want to end up as one of those who just have a story to share. I have an option and I will like to pursue that. It is upto an individual to take or leave this option. Everyone has their own opinion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MorningSun

.....

Picture this, I am in EB2 row now, if I happen to qualify for EB1 due to my "exceptional research" in the field of "enjoying time with my family and feeling happy with what I have"; I will apply under EB1. I am sure you would agree.
....

MorningSun you are hilarious!
02-14-2011, 01:12 PM
pch053

I do agree that this is one of the best discussion groups I have seen, especially for discussing the movement of EB2I/C. I am somewhat disappointed with trackitt while following the discussion threads on the above topic with people making random estimates (either positive or negative) defying any logic and without any understanding of the situation. Thanks for starting this extremely helpful blog for all immigrants.
02-14-2011, 02:23 PM
qesehmk

Gokulram Thanks. Welcome.

PCH, in Sanskrit language there is a saying.. that even Gods love praise... We are just mortals! So thanks for the kind words!

Quote:

Originally Posted by gokulram arunasalam

Q - this is a great blog and probably the most sensible one on the web, that I've seen as far as using detailed analysis to arrive at predictions. Keep it up. Look forward to hearing your views more and hopefully, I contribute too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pch053

I do agree that this is one of the best discussion groups I have seen, especially for discussing the movement of EB2I/C. I am somewhat disappointed with trackitt while following the discussion threads on the above topic with people making random estimates (either positive or negative) defying any logic and without any understanding of the situation. Thanks for starting this extremely helpful blog for all immigrants.
02-14-2011, 03:27 PM
TeluguBidda

Quote:

Originally Posted by pch053

I do agree that this is one of the best discussion groups I have seen, especially for discussing the movement of EB2I/C. I am somewhat disappointed with trackitt while following the discussion threads on the above topic with people making random estimates (either positive or negative) defying any logic and without any understanding of the situation. Thanks for starting this extremely helpful blog for all immigrants.

Not to mention, we have to go through acerbic comments from few people. I used to visit Trackitt regularly, simply not anymore.
02-15-2011, 02:41 AM
kd2008

PERM data to available quarterly!!!!

Please see the link here: http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

Beginning October 1, 2010 (FY 2011), OFLC is posting cumulative quarterly case disclosure data covering the permanent and temporary labor certification programs as well as the new prevailing wage program.

9299 Certified India
1004 Certified China
8052 Certified ROW
18355 Certified Total

in just three months!
This puts an end to ROW demand debate. Its coming and its huge!

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