23% chance of getting past committeeQuote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
2% chance of getting enacted
where do they get this from .. ;)
23% chance of getting past committeeQuote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
2% chance of getting enacted
where do they get this from .. ;)
To gcq
Sorry for the delay in responding to your earlier response. I agree with you that the headcount is not easy and I was only trying to make a most reasonable, educated guess as to how the votes would fall.As I mentioned,I omitted "probably" yes or no to enhance clarity. My inclusion in one or the other group was based on past statements and voting record which unfortunately is very thin for some of the newer members of the Senate. 43 of the 100 senators were not in the Senate during the last CIR effort. Also as there has been no immigration legislation this session,it is hard to judge how much the views on immigration has changed among the Senators because of the recent elections.
In respect to your specific mention of Sen.Cornyn-I found this article interesting
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-...b_3044880.html
To Q,Spec,vizcard,abcx13,rupen & others
Please feel free to critique my previous post and try and find additional support for a better vote tally. We need a hefty tailwind from a strong showing of the Bill in the Senate to prod the House into action and strengthen the Senate's hand during conference negotiations.I am sure we are all in agreement that the Senate Bill is going to be the more favorable one
PS-I was trying to judge support for the initial motion to proceed and cloture and not for the final Bill
Good question. I don't know the answer. In my case, that would definitely shorten the time to citizenship (one can dream!) but only if F1 counts.Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
House praises Senate bill - http://thehill.com/homenews/house/29...migration-bill
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
"The statement was careful not to explicitly endorse the Senate measure".
I think it was courteous of them to acknowledge that the Senators at least came out with a starting Bill which the House so far has not been able to.
I like the Provided if this bill passes. I have only one question to all. Suppose if the bill is not passed one of the house. [The real fight is going to be in the republican lead congress] Will the President include Legal Immigration in his Executive order... Un necessary waste of time debating this bill... Legal immigration USCIS can take care.. Or just recapturing the unused Visa. everyone is happy. If the Bill passes then it is a different scenario altogether. Other 11 million will be ready at Mexico to cross the border! again another amnesty.. The saga continues.
Yeah, but it's getting reported as praise. See e.gQuote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...-bill/2090019/
The countdown begins
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politic...e-lee.html.csp
My prediction is that Senator Hatch will eventually endorse and play a larger role in its passage than some of the co-sponsors (like AC21).He is one of my 15 Republican YES votes
Sen.Warner likes the proposal but he was a foregone YES vote anyway
http://augustafreepress.com/2013/04/...tion-proposal/
I would bet my money on passing this bill than executive order on legal immigration.Quote:
Originally Posted by immitime
I have just managed to break away from work now and have a couple of hours to go through the bill. I like what i see so far, but i'm well behind justvisiting, vizcard, rupen, abc, Spec and some others. Although the bill looks huge, the relevant sections are relatively few.
Shant gadhadhari bhim, shant! This bill is a game changer alright, and there is a going to be a lot of fight to get it over the finish line, especially in the House. But, as long as it is still alive and breathing, the President will issue no executive orders, and even if it dies, he may prefer to wait until the next elections to reintroduce it again with the hope that the House composition is closer in his favor then. If he gives relief to the legal immigrants, he can't hold us as a bargaining chip to get what he wants for the illegals. As to another 11 million at the border, E-verify is being significantly strengthened (pages 395 to 504) and not a single GC will be issued to an illegal immigrant until the borders are secure. Except for a supreme court ruling that it is unconstitutional, the border security provisions seems pretty ironclad.Quote:
Originally Posted by immitime
Pedro,Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Thanks, I understand all these. But what I meant is just for "Bargaining" for the dirty political gain, whoever is in the top is playing with Individual's and families life!. That does n't seems to be the case when he projects himself though. (Still alive and breathing we have seen for the last year. H.R.3012.. just that small bill if they can't pass think about this 800 + pages bill. I will be surprised if this bill passes.
Comparison of CIR reforms of 2006/2007/2013.
WRT visa reforms, it starts on page 7.
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/...de-by-Side.pdf
I was very happy to see this-please read my post from yesterday AM
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf..._us_senat.html
Unless conservatives have truly changed-his vote will be crucial not just for the entire Bill's passage but also critical amendments.We should remember that the conservative and/or liberal opposition is only just beginning
C&P a tweet I just saw
Senate Gang of 8 holding 2:30 presser to discuss immigration bill.Opponent Sens Sessions & Vitter set their newser for 2:15.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjS0HL6MC5Q
Live link for the Gang of 8 Explaining Senate Immigration Reform Proposal
The opposition on the right seems pretty tough... just heard Rubio trying to convince radio show talkers.
Following up on Q's suggestion, I suggest creating just 1 new thread and allowing each of the folks Q suggested (Spec, Rupen, GS1968, Justvisiting) and a few others (Q, vizcard, and I humbly include myself) to create place holders for their summary posts. Each of us can split and summarize the bill however we wish to. Once we think we are done, we can have a grand summary of the bill as it stands. Although the first step will get done in the next few days, it will be an ongoing exercise as amendments come in and are incorporated, and as the house bill is released.
Sound good?
If so, aforementioned subject matter experts, go hold your spot here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4716#post34716
I love it when they say you have to learn english .. in spanish :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
You are right... its funny.. But I still do not understand why a developed country's immigration give priority to Illegals. Rather than law abiding Legals... Please do not say that, "That is the way it is..and no difference between Legal and Illegal and blah blah blah... Legal immigration has been held hostage for long time just for bargaining, just only reason for bargain with the extreme Right!.. Fence jumpers issue should be dealt with criminal cases.. jumping a country's border Illegally is Crime!.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
11 millions Path to citizenship.. for that Legals need to wait decades! and they say they treat everybody EQUAL! what an irony.
If this bill passes its a lottery for Legals!
This from Politico
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...ion-90297.html
It is hard to get any specifics from this article perhaps because there aren't many yet.However the path to citizenship may take 2 decades.
I am copying a tweet from Rep.Lamar Smith
"It’s hard to believe, but the Senate #immigration bill is worse than we thought." and links to this statement
Washington, Apr 17 -
Congressman Smith delivered the below statement on the House floor today criticizing the Senate Gang of Eight’s immigration proposal, which was introduced late last night.
Congressman Smith: “It’s hard to believe, but the Senate immigration bill is worse than we thought. Despite assurances, the border is not secured before almost everyone in the country illegally is given amnesty. The bill guarantees there will be a rush across the border to take advantage of massive amnesty.
“And the Senate proposal offers amnesty to far more illegal immigrants than we thought. In addition to most of the 11 million illegal immigrants already in the country, the bill offers to legalize the relatives of illegal immigrants outside the U.S. and even others who have already been deported back home. So current immigration laws are shredded.
“The Senate bill is bad news for the American people. The good news is that the House Judiciary Committee will come up with a better plan that improves our immigration system and puts the interests of American workers first.”
In addition to discussing specifics of the Bill,it is also important to watch the process carefully to see any shifting of opinion among the key players in both chambers.I am hoping that the above statement is not shared among the larger House judiciary committee. He was our hero last year for swift passage of HR3012 and I hope he does not become the villain
Chairman Goodlatte's statement on the Senate CIR
http://goodlatte.house.gov/press_releases/387
Not a ringing endorsement but not a rejection either. Other reports also confirm the go-slow approach from the House
A different report seemed to suggest that Rep.Steve King did not think there were enough votes in the House yet to defeat the Senate Bill although I doubt that is the version which will be debated in the House
Different assessment by Nancy PelsoiQuote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/29...before-august-
I agree that this bill if brought in the house will pass.
To rupen86
If the House Group does not come up with a Bill soon this might become the default Bill if the intention is to move a Comprehensive Bill instead of piecemeal.
A group to keep a close eye on is the Congressional Black Caucus-this was a recent article
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/29...migration-bill
A perusal of previous Statistical Yearbooks substantiates the fact that the immigrants of African & Caribbean origin do constitute about 50% of the visas issued.They also have a good amount of FB usage.The CBC has 42 members and is usually a very united voting block.I am unable to find the article where they aslo raise concerns about elimination of FB categories affecting Caribbean immigration.Hon.John Conyers is the ranking member of the judiciary committee and will influence the progress of any legislation. Their votes may be crucial to passage and they have nothing to lose by voting against the Bill as they represent heavily minority dominated districts as a result of the Voting Rights Act
Very fair article. I'd love to see how they address this issue. While I personally think the DV is a joke, there has to be some way in which "the tired, poor and huddled masses" can immigrate here. Maybe its a "quota" within the merit-based umbrella for such immigrants.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968