EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by karanjohar

I do not want to attribute this to conspiracy theories, but there is something fishy going on. Either the administration has given mandate to the agencies to harm EB India or there is some sort of a collusion between the agencies and immigration lawyers. Again, I do not want to believe this, but I don't see a logical explanation.

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Based on last executive action, a lot of future action items listed came from CIS talking points. CIS has clearly separated EB1 from EB2/EB3 in their talking points. I do believe that there is an effort to not harm EB1. And an effort to look down on EB2-I and EB3-I.

It's out in the open now...

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
I was a speaker this morning on a seminar, but just got alerted to some news from the House Judiciary Committee hearing with USCIS. Zoe Lofgren said she was told that DHS political appointees set the Visa Bulletin Employment-based dates in the July Visa bulletin. h/t
@ejtaub
9:04 AM · Jul 29, 2020·TweetDeck

Comments in-line.

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Originally Posted by karanjohar

Spectator,

I have a few questions,

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1. When you say the additional 16,500 FB visas from last year is not showing up in the USCIS bulletin, does it mean that it is not yet allocated? Which, ergo, would mean there could be some extra visas for next month (howsoever small it could be)

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The official position of DOS is that the minimum allocation is used until the official numerical lists can be calculated.

If DOS actually operated per the above statement, given that DOS only receive the required information from USCIS after the August VB has been published, then all extra numbers above 140,000 would have to be allocated in September.

Clearly, DOS can not operate like that. In a normal year, DOS know within a few tens or hundreds, what the official calculation is likely to be. They know that from at least January of the FY.

Given that, I’m pretty sure the distribution of the extra visas starts before the official figures are calculated. I wouldn’t like to speculate when those extra visas are allocated.

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2. Why wasn't the EB quota adjusted to account for the lack of FB demand this FY? If the FB quota was underallocated by 110K, then technically, this should come out to be 7% of this number or 7,700 visas for EB2 (combined). If EB2ROW is current and interviews are not happening then I can't fathom how additional ROW demand came about from thin air to consume these visas.

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I’m not sure what you are trying to say.

The EB allocation for FY2020 will not be affected due low use of FB in FY2020. That will be taken into account when the FY2021 EB allocation is calculated.

Low FB use by a Country in FY2020 may allow extra EB approvals for that Country while still remaining within the overall 7% per Country limit for FY2020.

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3. Similar to point 2 when is the EB quota re-adjusted to include the reduced FB numbers? This assumes that the president's EO continues unchallenged and no FB visas are allocated for Q1 FY 2021

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See point 2.

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I had expected much more movement for EB2I. Last four months movement has only been 44 days and corresponds to a net 800 additional visas. This number is ridiculously low given the situation we are in and the math just doesn't add up. On the other hand, I see rapid movement for EB1I and a barrage of approvals in Trackitt. I get your point about logistics and how the pandemic has affected the process. However, doesn't it be applicable to everyone, not just EB2 India?

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I’m not sure how you are equating 44 days movement to 800 visas.

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I do not want to attribute this to conspiracy theories, but there is something fishy going on. Either the administration has given mandate to the agencies to harm EB India or there is some sort of a collusion between the agencies and immigration lawyers. Again, I do not want to believe this, but I don't see a logical explanation.

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I don’t subscribe to conspiracy theories.

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Just makes me so mad... what other evidence is needed? They can simply deny this and will not be held accountable if visas get wasted.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
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@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

Edlow says no.

Jeez. Can't understand why they hate legal immigrants so much.

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Originally Posted by karanjohar

Jeez. Can't understand why they hate legal immigrants so much.

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They hate ALL immigration. When you have Jessica Vaughan testifying in Congress, you know what's up.

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Originally Posted by karanjohar

Jeez. Can't understand why they hate legal immigrants so much.

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If so, why did they move EB-1 India close to 3 years in the last 4 months?

I don't know. Do you?

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

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This might have been going on for a while from the looks of it. How do you square the fact that none of CO's check-in matches with what the VB looks like in the immediate succeeding months.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Just makes me so mad... what other evidence is needed? They can simply deny this and will not be held accountable if visas get wasted.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
.
@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

Edlow says no.

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They will deny everything and not to forget Mr.CO's diplomatic stance this month for eb2i, not mentioning a thing about the 25k visa wastage, spillovers (next year ) etc....just a vague statement of dates not moving due to ROW demand. With no insight to pending inventory, we are clueless as to what is happening behind the scenes.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

For the Vertical Spillover from EB1, you are considering the number being available because of consulates being closed.
But I guess a lot of filings in EB1 I are AOS as they are on H1 and L1 and are already here. So I doubt there will be much vertical spill over. It can be that the dates in EB1 need to move beyond 2018 to generate further demand in that category.

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Also add to the fact that Eb1 Row is current and the number Eb1 applicant from India beyond April 2018 appears to be very limited.

I think Spec's last post is generally agreeable except I do think that given that DOS controls the numbers , there is nothing that they really need to check with USCIS before they declare how many numbers move to EB next year.

However I do understand that they want to be cautious and see which way the wind blows before they commit the numbers to EB.

I also think that at the end of the day Congress can take away what's given by creating new laws but that the chance of that happening is practically ZERO.

Bottomline: the ball will be in CO's court.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

It's out in the open now...

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
I was a speaker this morning on a seminar, but just got alerted to some news from the House Judiciary Committee hearing with USCIS. Zoe Lofgren said she was told that DHS political appointees set the Visa Bulletin Employment-based dates in the July Visa bulletin. h/t
@ejtaub
9:04 AM · Jul 29, 2020·TweetDeck

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The puzzling thing is why did they let CO set the Visa Bulletin Family dates in the Visa bulletin given that they hate FB even more?:confused: There is no end to speculations and conspiracy theories!

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Originally Posted by karanjohar

I don't know. Do you?

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I didn't claim "they hate legal immigrants so much" when the dates moved across the board including China.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Low FB use by a Country in FY2020 may allow extra EB approvals for that Country while still remaining within the overall 7% per Country limit for FY2020.

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Spec,

this is the most logical explanation I have heard about why EB2/3 India categories may not have gotten much spillover this year. Thank you for pointing that out. We won't know the real truth until they publish the data later this year.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

I didn't claim "they hate legal immigrants so much" when the dates moved across the board including China.

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If you are looking for a flame war, sorry, not interested.

Wouldn't there be low FB approval this year for all countries ( until and unless there are AOS for india in FB) ?

My 2 cents
There is no method to madness what CO or USCIS does for the GC processing. They have created such a convoluted process it now needs a fresh start by a new CIR.
All in all I see them as gamblers in casino, every time they try to win but at the end of the day they lose. My problem is they are betting hundreds of thousands of people's lives / time / effort / money / future at stake.
They are getting the kick out of legal immigrant's misery. ✌️

Just to keep sanity of people like me, effort from Q/Spec and all gurus via this forum helps.

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Bottomline: the ball will be in CO's court.

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Sorry, Q, could not resist
Collectively he holds close to a million Made in India. ������

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Originally Posted by gs1968

Yes-I think the spillover will happen as there is unlikely to be any legislation passed to reverse this before September 30. However the intent to recapture the lost visas for FB is there and would play a role in the DOS thinking. If there is such a legislation passed in early 2021 (second Quarter of FY 2021) then I think the DOS will adjust dates accordingly. I expect them not to front load the additional visas to the EB category as once issued they cannot be reclaimed for FB visas. If the 110000 visas are divided by 12 months there will be 9000 extra numbers per month. I hope there is at least that amount taken into consideration while issuing the visa bulletin

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gs1968, You correctly predicted that chances of legislation preventing spillover are unlikely to be included in round 2 of COVID relief a few days earlier. The current developments (news today and yesterday) show that there is a huge difference between a) What R's want b) What individual R's want (McConnell said about 20 of their members are not in agreement with their own proposal) and c) What's in 1868 page house version vs 168 page senate version. Anything that is not absolutely basic for aid will be taken out. Hence, I don't see Rep. Meng's amendment to pass. Even the president will not get his wish for a new FBI building opposite to his Hotel in DC.

Totally ignoring the elephant in the room, S386; Is it fair to say there are two developments to watch-out in the immediate future: 1. USCIS/DOS release their statistics on unused numbers from 2019 to be added to 2020 EB quota officially by the next bulletin. 2. USCIS Furlough that has been pushed now to the end of August (excuse for not moving VB dates).

Does anyone know if additional USCIS funding will be part of the relief bill? If not with the USCIS furloughs end of next month, I see no value of spillover coming to EB.

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

Does anyone know if additional USCIS funding will be part of the relief bill? If not with the USCIS furloughs end of next month, I see no value of spillover coming to EB.

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The 1.222B relief is in the Senate version. All application fees will increase by 10%+21% (seasonal increase). In House, they are calling for more USCIS oversight and AILA is looking for something too. My understanding is that the Furlough will be only for the month of September. October is the start of next year Is't it?

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Originally Posted by idliman

The 1.222B relief is in the Senate version. All application fees will increase by 10%+21% (seasonal increase). In House, they are calling for more USCIS oversight and AILA is looking for something too. My understanding is that the Furlough will be only for the month of September. October is the start of next year Is't it?

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I believe that is accurate. The fight now is for the month of September to be funded.

I can think of a way they can get some revenue in Sept 🤪

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Originally Posted by idliman

The 1.222B relief is in the Senate version. All application fees will increase by 10%+21% (seasonal increase). In House, they are calling for more USCIS oversight and AILA is looking for something too. My understanding is that the Furlough will be only for the month of September. October is the start of next year Is't it?

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Here is the thing I do not get. USCIS is fee driven. So I am not sure if there is any regular budget allocation specifically to USCIS (DHS may be a different issue) every year. So I didn't see it as funding only for the month of September. I thought that was the loan USCIS will receive and will have to payback to the govt in future with the fee it collects. So if it does not get the loan, My assumption is the furlough will extend beyond the month of September. Please do correct me if my understanding was wrong.

Got the magic text and email this morning for Card Production 2 months after being current.