EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

A very interesting discussion has developed and I am enjoying the different viewpoints put forward.

murali,

An excellent post. Particular credit for explaining your thought process so well. I agree generally with what you said, although I too think the numbers might be a little on the low side.

Once Porting is added, I think it may be very difficult for EB2-IC COD to escape 2008 in FY2013.

2009 is always held up as a year of high Demand Destruction, leading to a low OR.

I don't necessarily agree. To my mind, if there was a destruction in numbers, it was the very low number of PERM submitted with 2009 PD. It might be argued that employers chose more carefully which PERM to submit and they actually have a higher chance of surviving than those in some other years.

I do not use a higher DD or lower OR for 2009.

It's too early to say yet, but some figures are starting to point to some part of the period covered by the Jan VB (Mar-Dec 2008) as being a period that might have fewer numbers than expected. I stress that is very provisional.

I agree that DD is really a factor from long wait times to file I-485, so I wouldn't expect EB2-non IC to suffer from it to the same extent. The I-485 can be filed concurrently and if it can survive for 180 days then a lot of the immediate problems are mitigated. I-485 processing times (in real life) have exceeded 6 months for most of the time.

As to EB2-non IC usage - it appears to have held up.

2011 (estimated) - 33k
2010 - 27.5k
2009 - 29.3k
2008 - 44.9k
2007 - 31.4k

Sorry if I have missed anything - there was a lot to catch up on.

Please keep it coming.

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Originally Posted by shashinehal

I just read the news on Oh Law site where it says "At the end of February 2012, NSC had only 39,779 preadicated I-485 cases and TSC had 42,261 preadjudicated I-485 cases. Probably these rapid consumptions of the preadjudicated cases affected FY 2012 employment-based visa numbers exhaustion."
Is this true/correct ? This matches to earlier post by someone where he mentioned one of the big law firm got internal news that there are around 81k I-485 cases filed.
Guru's can you shed some light on the same ?

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shashinehal,

If it matches another figure, then it is completely coincidental IMO. The 80k figure seems far to high anyway.

Remember that the majority of those pre-adjudicated cases shown in the USCIS Dashboard are actually EB3 cases, since all of EB3 has been severely retrogressed for some time. The underlying reduction that might be due to EB2-IC is actually fairly small once you deduct the numbers expected as a result of EB3 approvals for the period.

Spec,

In that case why arent we expecting dates to move beyond May 2010 post Oct 2012 ?

Bit confused on the calculations, appreciate if you can help me understand the same.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

shashinehal,

If it matches another figure, then it is completely coincidental IMO. The 80k figure seems far to high anyway.

Remember that the majority of those pre-adjudicated cases shown in the USCIS Dashboard are actually EB3 cases, since all of EB3 has been severely retrogressed for some time. The underlying reduction that might be due to EB2-IC is actually fairly small once you deduct the numbers expected as a result of EB3 approvals for the period.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by shashinehal

Spec,

In that case why arent we expecting dates to move beyond May 2010 post Oct 2012 ?

Bit confused on the calculations, appreciate if you can help me understand the same.

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shashinehal,

I'll try. Hopefully, I've understood your question correctly.

Firstly, the preadjudicated figures in the USCIS Dashboard represent cases where a visa wasn't immediately available after all processing was completed to the point of approval. Since EB2-IC doesn't have very much Consular Processing, the USCIS numbers should match the DOS Demand Data quite well.

We know that, going into this FY, EB2-IC had about 8k pre-adjudicated cases left where a visa had been requested but was not available according to the DOS Demand Data. The figure in the USCIS Dashboard data can't be higher than that.

Since the PD has been Current since November for all possible EB2-IC cases that could be adjudicated after the July 2007 backlog, no further cases could add to the pre-adjudicated total - they would just be approved.

Now to address your main question.

Despite what the May VB says, I don't think it is possible for Cut Off Dates to even remotely approach May 2010 next year.

According to DOS own document, the Cut Off Dates can only move forward as far as the date of the first person for whom there is no visa available.

By October 2012, many if not most, of the applications submitted up to May 2012 will be pre-adjudicated. At that point they will show as Demand to DOS. If all the cases are pre-adjudicated, that number could be as high as 45k.

In that case, for DOS to set the Cut Off Date back to May 2010, there would need to be at least 45k visas available to EB2-IC. Whatever the actual number, it is a very large number. Clearly, that will not be the case.

In reality, EB2-IC may only have 20-25k available for all of FY2013 - enough to move the Cut Off Date towards the latter half of 2008 as previous posts have discussed.

If Quarterly Spillover (QSP) is employed again, then maybe 6-7k might be available in Q1 FY2013. That is about enough to move the Cut Off Date 3 months.

I am at a loss to understand why CO put those words in the May VB. About the only way that I can think of where dates could move to May 2010 would have been for USCIS to have stopped processing EB2-IC cases from April onwards, ensuring that very little demand was apparent to DOS in October 2012. Then, within the law, the Cut Off Dates could advance, much as they did at the beginning of this year. Even that strategy would require the dates to retrogress heavily the next month.

I hope that helps you.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Not sure if the my definition of demand destruction matches with yours but here is how I calculate it. Based on historical data number of EB2/3IC PERM cases approx. equals Eb2IC demand. That gives a OR of 1. Any thing below this OR is what I consider as demand destruction. So if we take example of year PD 2008 then we have around 28000 EB2/3IC PERM cases i.e. density of about 2300/per month. So if as you said , if you want to assume NO demand destruction then your count should be around 2300/month. But your calculations appear assumes 1800/month density which means OR of about .75 which indicate high demand destruction.(note that we have not even considered porting in whole scenario)

You may want to read this very good post by Spec :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ation-of-Terms

Update: I am not contesting 1800/month density. All I am pointing out is , that density can be a reality only if there is high demand destruction ( contrary to to your assumption in original post of 'no or very little demand destruction').

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Hi Suninphx,

I think my definition of DD is different and that is why we are reaching different conclusions. I am not referring to abandoned cases, I am just saying that in 2009 lesser cases (EB2 I-140's) were filed. So when I say 0.6 relative DD, I mean that PD 2009 will have 0.6 times the PD 2008 number of cases.

But I am a little confused with your numbers, 2300 EB2/3 IC is what you are saying, I am saying 1800 EB2-IC, so isn't 1800 correct, if 2300 is EB2+EB3 (I+C).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

A very interesting discussion has developed and I am enjoying the different viewpoints put forward.

murali,

An excellent post. Particular credit for explaining your thought process so well. I agree generally with what you said, although I too think the numbers might be a little on the low side.

Once Porting is added, I think it may be very difficult for EB2-IC COD to escape 2008 in FY2013.

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Thanks Spec. I think you are right about the numbers being low. Lets see when the data comes out. I will be glad as long as the pending EB2-IC inventory is less than 45K which will mean approx 2000 density.

Now i understand your calculations somewhat.
Even i am lost with CO's statement to bring back to May 2010 :) , So was not able to catch you with the calculations here as to why everyone is trying overide CO :)

So everyone is kind of lost with CO's statement :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

shashinehal,

I'll try. Hopefully, I've understood your question correctly.

Firstly, the preadjudicated figures in the USCIS Dashboard represent cases where a visa wasn't immediately available after all processing was completed to the point of approval. Since EB2-IC doesn't have very much Consular Processing, the USCIS numbers should match the DOS Demand Data quite well.

We know that, going into this FY, EB2-IC had about 8k pre-adjudicated cases left where a visa had been requested but was not available according to the DOS Demand Data. The figure in the USCIS Dashboard data can't be higher than that.

Since the PD has been Current since November for all possible EB2-IC cases that could be adjudicated after the July 2007 backlog, no further cases could add to the pre-adjudicated total - they would just be approved.

Now to address your main question.

Despite what the May VB says, I don't think it is possible for Cut Off Dates to even remotely approach May 2010 next year.

According to DOS own document, the Cut Off Dates can only move forward as far as the date of the first person for whom there is no visa available.

By October 2012, many if not most, of the applications submitted up to May 2012 will be pre-adjudicated. At that point they will show as Demand to DOS. If all the cases are pre-adjudicated, that number could be as high as 45k.

In that case, for DOS to set the Cut Off Date back to May 2010, there would need to be at least 45k visas available to EB2-IC. Whatever the actual number, it is a very large number. Clearly, that will not be the case.

In reality, EB2-IC may only have 20-25k available for all of FY2013 - enough to move the Cut Off Date towards the latter half of 2008 as previous posts have discussed.

If Quarterly Spillover (QSP) is employed again, then maybe 6-7k might be available in Q1 FY2013. That is about enough to move the Cut Off Date 3 months.

I am at a loss to understand why CO put those words in the May VB. About the only way that I can think of where dates could move to May 2010 would have been for USCIS to have stopped processing EB2-IC cases from April onwards, ensuring that very little demand was apparent to DOS in October 2012. Then, within the law, the Cut Off Dates could advance, much as they did at the beginning of this year. Even that strategy would require the dates to retrogress heavily the next month.

I hope that helps you.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by murali83

Hi Suninphx,

I think my definition of DD is different and that is why we are reaching different conclusions. I am not referring to abandoned cases, I am just saying that in 2009 lesser cases (EB2 I-140's) were filed. So when I say 0.6 relative DD, I mean that PD 2009 will have 0.6 times the PD 2008 number of cases.

But I am a little confused with your numbers, 2300 EB2/3 IC is what you are saying, I am saying 1800 EB2-IC, so isn't 1800 correct, if 2300 is EB2+EB3 (I+C).

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That is EB2+EB3 IC PERM cases ~ I485 EB2IC cases. Please read Spec's post. He has explained it so well that I repeating it here will not be very useful :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I am at a loss to understand why CO put those words in the May VB. About the only way that I can think of where dates could move to May 2010 would have been for USCIS to have stopped processing EB2-IC cases from April onwards, ensuring that very little demand was apparent to DOS in October 2012. Then, within the law, the Cut Off Dates could advance, much as they did at the beginning of this year. Even that strategy would require the dates to retrogress heavily the next month.

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Spec,

They have confused us with too many statements. Along with this para, in the same bulletin, they also said that the date in Oct 2012 bulletin will only be known in summer, meaning that it will only be based on supply and demand. And If i remember correctly, CO also announced around Mar 16, that all filed cases will be preadjudicated and will be kept in the pending file, so I guess they are processing cases. To support that fact, even Feb filers are getting RFE's as per trackiit and even some posters on this forum have got rfe's recently, which i guess alludes to the fact that they are processing.

I guess all this makes it even more confusing as to why he put that statement about May 2010.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

That is EB2+EB3 IC PERM cases ~ I485 EB2IC cases. Please read Spec's post. He has explained it so well that I repeating it here will not be very useful :)

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Thanks suninphx, I will read Spec's post

Guys pls help.. does the 485 package reach USCIS by Apr-30 or Postmarked by Apr-30? I have some final documents came in today, I am planning to self file by tomorrow. PLS help. In case postmarked is acceptable should it be USPS or FedEx/UPS.

Does anyone here have access to AILA BTW?

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Originally Posted by neduguy

Guys pls help.. does the 485 package reach USCIS by Apr-30 or Postmarked by Apr-30? I have some final documents came in today, I am planning to self file by tomorrow. PLS help. In case postmarked is acceptable should it be USPS or FedEx/UPS.

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It has to reach USCIS by April 30. Why did you wait for last moment? Where are you located ?

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Originally Posted by evoori

It has to reach USCIS by April 30. Why did you wait for last moment? Where are you located ?

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Am in Chicago. I looked at same day delivery in fedex, but it's only with the same metro area. Would there be any way I can send the package is same day delivery

Deleted. Not needed

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Originally Posted by neduguy

Am in Chicago. I looked at same day delivery in fedex, but it's only with the same metro area. Would there be any way I can send the package is same day delivery

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Guess you have to drive to o'hare and take a flight to wherever you have to send it.

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Originally Posted by murali83

Guess you have to drive to o'hare and take a flight to wherever you have to send it.

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That's a nice one murali :) ... Since I got the document By Sunday today is the only last window I have. Or have to wait till oct 2012 as per CO's words in May bulletin.

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Originally Posted by neduguy

That's a nice one murali :) ... Since I got the document By Sunday today is the only last window I have. Or have to wait till oct 2012 as per CO's words in May bulletin.

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I dont want to speak for Murali but I dont think he is joking. If I were you I would take a flight to wherever USCIS reciept box is and hand deliver it today. Or if it is at driving distance then drive and deliver it. Its worth the time and effort, otherwise we dont know till when you have to wait, it might be Oct 12 or longer.

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

I dont want to speak for Murali but I dont think he is joking. If I were you I would take a flight to wherever USCIS reciept box is and hand deliver it today. Or if it is at driving distance then drive and deliver it. Its worth the time and effort, otherwise we dont know till when you have to wait, it might be Oct 12 or longer.

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neduguy,

as goforgreen mentioned, i was not joking, it is now 9:26 central time, just take the day off and get to ur uscis receipt box asap even if u have to shell out some extra money.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by murali83

neduguy,

as goforgreen mentioned, i was not joking, it is now 9:26 central time, just take the day off and get to ur uscis receipt box asap even if u have to shell out some extra money.

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Thanks Murali and goforgreen for sharing your thougts. I have decided to wait for the window to open up and not to hurry at last day. Am good on H1B with Visa stamped till dec 2013. Hopefully I get to apply later this year. My PD is Apr 2009. Thanks Guys.. it's my first few posting in this form. I have been a silent observer for a long time. Hope I can contribute to the forum going forward.

Saw this EB2I approval on trackitt. I thought they said no more visas for EB2IC for this FY?

User: foobar123
Category: EB2 India
PD: 07/15/2007
Filing: Concurrent in Aug-2007
Last Finger Printing: First week of Feb-2012
RFE for AOS for Name discrepancy received on 02/09/2012
RFE response Submitted: 04/20/2012
RFE response received by USCIS: 04/25/2012
AOS Status changed to "Card Production" on 04/30/2012
AOS Status changed to "Decision" on 05/01/2012

Hmmm... maybe because of the Feb RFE, there was a number allotted to the case? I had myself considered the arguments that "RFEs have a number assigned to them" as incorrect - perhaps I was wrong.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Saw this EB2I approval on trackitt. I thought they said no more visas for EB2IC for this FY?

User: foobar123
Category: EB2 India
PD: 07/15/2007
Filing: Concurrent in Aug-2007
Last Finger Printing: First week of Feb-2012
RFE for AOS for Name discrepancy received on 02/09/2012
RFE response Submitted: 04/20/2012
RFE response received by USCIS: 04/25/2012
AOS Status changed to "Card Production" on 04/30/2012
AOS Status changed to "Decision" on 05/01/2012

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Hmmm... maybe because of the Feb RFE, there was a number allotted to the case? I had myself considered the arguments that "RFEs have a number assigned to them" as incorrect - perhaps I was wrong.

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how does "no more visas for the year" relate to having a PD cut-off of Aug 2007? Maybe there are some numbers kept aside to account for cases with PDs of Aug 2007 and earlier..

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Originally Posted by mbasense

how does "no more visas for the year" relate to having a PD cut-off of Aug 2007? Maybe there are some numbers kept aside to account for cases with PDs of Aug 2007 and earlier..

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If that is the case then its a good news!

Saw another EB2I Aug/11/2007 PD approval in trackitt. This user (EB2IAug112007) also has an RFE in March.