EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Trackitt sample trend makes total sense. The current demand is 9 months of demand in 6 months. Last year we had 9 months. March EB2-ROW approval levels were similar compared to March of last fiscal, considering people may come back and update in the next few days.38-39K demand EB2WW, is probably where the demand is headed to. One more month may give us a better picture of demand levelling. What is making it difficult to conclude is, I dont see those trends from labor data.

On the EB1 side, possibility of more spillovers than I previously thought!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.

EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.

EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.

Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.

If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.

That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.

It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.

Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.

---

Spec / Matt,
Any idea what % of EB 2 WW approvals during the first 6 months of 2013 is for 2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

Trackitt sample trend makes total sense. The current demand is 9 months of demand in 6 months. Last year we had 9 months. March EB2-ROW approval levels were similar compared to March of last fiscal, considering people may come back and update in the next few days.38-39K demand EB2WW, is probably where the demand is headed to. One more month may give us a better picture of demand levelling. What is making it difficult to conclude is, I dont see those trends from labor data.

On the EB1 side, possibility of more spillovers than I previously thought!!

---

Matt,

I don't disagree with anything you have said. I am only pointing out that because the missing 3 months from FY2012 has been caught up in only 6 months, it introduces the potential for use in excess of the allocation. Like you, I wish to see what approvals over the next 1-2 months look like.

Imagine if the extra FB visas had not materialised!

I am finding EB1 very difficult to predict this year. There are very few non EB1-I approvals on Trackitt. That's a problem because non EB1-I is likely to represent 75% of total EB1 approvals. Currently, they only represent 16% of Trackitt Approvals (compared to 31% in FY2012) and it is dragging the number down to the mid 30's.

If EB1-I numbers on Trackitt are considered more representative of EB1 performance as a whole this year, then EB1 is heading for similar usage to FY2012.

I have no idea which is the correct interpretation.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by seattlet

Spec / Matt,
Any idea what % of EB 2 WW approvals during the first 6 months of 2013 is for 2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks.

---

seattlet,

There is some breakdown by PD in this post for EB2-ROW. The Trackitt numbers for EB2-M and EB2-P are a bit low for me to feel confident they are entirely reliable.

If that is not what you are asking, then I think you need to define exactly what you mean by "2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks".

The major surge of receipts (according to Trackitt) was seen in June 2012 (just before retrogression) and in November 2012 (when EB2-WW became Current again). 17% and 26% of those remain pending on Trackitt. Given that there is a % on Trackitt that never update their case, I would say the majority of those cases have probably now been dealt with.

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation and I would really appreciate all your insights. My PD is 29-June-2009 EB2-I : No I-1485 filed yet. My wife is on H1B too (thankfully). Her 6 years of H1b expires in sep 2015. Do you think we would get our GC before its expiration. Should we try to start a new petition for her so that she can extend her H1b.

With all the spillover numbers getting weak by the minute, when do you think things will move to 2009?

Thanks!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gcpursuit

Hello Gurus,

I have a situation and I would really appreciate all your insights. My PD is 29-June-2009 EB2-I : No I-1485 filed yet. My wife is on H1B too (thankfully). Her 6 years of H1b expires in sep 2015. Do you think we would get our GC before its expiration. Should we try to start a new petition for her so that she can extend her H1b.

With all the spillover numbers getting weak by the minute, when do you think things will move to 2009?

Thanks!

---

gcpursuit,

I hesitate to even attempt to answer this question.

It is too far in the future.

My personal opinion is that your PD will not have become Current by September 2015.

To do so would require too many approvals and unless EB were to continue to receive large amounts of extra numbers from FB, I don't see where that number of visas would come from.

I would not want to guess when the Cut Off Dates will move to 2009. There are too many variables.

I think passage of CIR is your best hope.

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

gcpursuit,

I hesitate to even attempt to answer this question.

It is too far in the future.

My personal opinion is that your PD will not have become Current by September 2015.

To do so would require too many approvals and unless EB were to continue to receive large amounts of extra numbers from FB, I don't see where that number of visas would come from.

I would not want to guess when the Cut Off Dates will move to 2009. There are too many variables.

I think passage of CIR is your best hope.

---

Wow, I am a bit surprised (due to lack of knowledge about the entire process) that 2009 PD will have tough time getting GC in Sept 2015. So I guess the general assumption that GC in 4-5 years from your PD (which is even mentioned as a general rule on page 1 by Q) is no longer valid. So is it now going to be 6-7 years?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gcpursuit

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

---

You can find the historical figures here.

The lowest figure in the time period (FY2009) gave 7.5k extra visas to EB2-IC. You need to look at the figures and understand the historical factors that influenced them. As an example, in FY2009 5.7k of those extra visas came from EB5, which wouldn't be repeated today. Other factors may have changed for the positive. For example, EB4 approvals have reduced.

In most years, another factor (or factors) have ensured that EB2-IC received more spillover than that seen in FY2009.

Spec,

Are you now expecting less that 14K for EB2I?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by geterdone

Wow, I am a bit surprised (due to lack of knowledge about the entire process) that 2009 PD will have tough time getting GC in Sept 2015. So I guess the general assumption that GC in 4-5 years from your PD (which is even mentioned as a general rule on page 1 by Q) is no longer valid. So is it now going to be 6-7 years?

---

eterdone,

Sorry to be so gloomy.

I think it is almost inevitable that wait times will increase, due to the sheer number of EB2-I cases that are pending and the number of visas likely to be available.

Let me use a very simplistic extrapolation. Please don't get hung up about the actual numbers used in the example.

From the beginning of FY2013, to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUL09 required about 32k approvals for EB2-I, if there were no other cases to account for.

However, the above does not account for porting. For the example, let's assume there are 6k extra for FY2013 and 4k for each subsequent year.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6 = 38k in one year (FY2013). Average approvals required per year = 38k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4 = 42k in two years (FY2013-FY2014). Average approvals required per year = 21k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4+4 = 46k in three years (FY2013-FY2015). Average approvals required per year = 15.3k.

Given the current trends, I don't see where that number would come from within the EB allocation alone.

Maybe I am just not imaginative enough. :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

eterdone,

Sorry to be so gloomy.

I think it is almost inevitable that wait times will increase, due to the sheer number of EB2-I cases that are pending and the number of visas likely to be available.

Let me use a very simplistic extrapolation. Please don't get hung up about the actual numbers used in the example.

From the beginning of FY2013, to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUL09 required about 32k approvals for EB2-I, if there were no other cases to account for.

However, the above does not account for porting. For the example, let's assume there are 6k extra for FY2013 and 4k for each subsequent year.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6 = 38k in one year (FY2013). Average approvals required per year = 38k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4 = 42k in two years (FY2013-FY2014). Average approvals required per year = 21k.

To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4+4 = 46k in three years (FY2013-FY2015). Average approvals required per year = 15.3k.

Given the current trends, I don't see where that number would come from within the EB allocation alone.

Maybe I am just not imaginative enough. :)

---

Spec,

With the demand in EB2 WW are you changing your predictions about SOFAD and dates this year or do you thing its too early. It seems EB2 WW is slated to hit 40,000. On another note its kind of strange that with this kind of demand theres been no word from CO about a cutoff for EB2 WW

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Spec,

With the demand in EB2 WW are you changing your predictions about SOFAD and dates this year or do you thing its too early. It seems EB2 WW is slated to hit 40,000. On another note its kind of strange that with this kind of demand theres been no word from CO about a cutoff for EB2 WW

---

sbhagwat2000,

CO did mention the possibility of EB2-WW retrogression at one point, but I think that was before the extra FB visas were announced.

Unless CO "pre-allocates" extra visas to EB2-I and then runs out of visas available to EB2 as a whole, then there is no prospect of EB2-WW retrogressing, however high the numbers might realistically reach.

EB2-WW are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down from EB1 (until they reach the 7% limits themselves) and that would cover any number EB2-WW might reach.

EB2-P would be most at risk, but they have several thousand extra visas within the overall 7% limit to play with. Very high EB2-P usage would only affect the number of approvals that EB3-P could receive and still stay within the overall 7% limit.

I want to wait and watch a little longer before updating any forecast.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

sbhagwat2000,

CO did mention the possibility of EB2-WW retrogression at one point, but I think that was before the extra FB visas were announced.

Unless CO "pre-allocates" extra visas to EB2-I and then runs out of visas available to EB2 as a whole, then there is no prospect of EB2-WW retrogressing, however high the numbers might realistically reach.

EB2-WW are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down from EB1 (until they reach the 7% limits themselves) and that would cover any number EB2-WW might reach.

EB2-P would be most at risk, but they have several thousand extra visas within the overall 7% limit to play with. Very high EB2-P usage would only affect the number of approvals that EB3-P could receive and still stay within the overall 7% limit.

I want to wait and watch a little longer before updating any forecast.

---

The only place where CO is said to have talked about retro for WW is on cilaw blog. Theres no official word about it like he did for EB5 in november nor anything about it in february before FB was allocated. Any ways I see now that WW will not retrogress. But what do you think would be the final number for WW- 39000-42000? Or can it go higher than that? at 42000 WW we are looking at 3000 EB1 + 4000 EB4 and 5 = 7000 SOFAD. What are ur thoughts?

Hi Spec,

In agreement with you on the representation of countries except India is very low for a statistical prediction. But I was looking at EB1C, I did observe a big drop in I-140 approvals for the six months ended March 31st. (71 Vs 108). Thoughts??

Thank GOD, If FB spillovers were not materialized, it would have been a major disaster year, with effects far spread into following fiscals!!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

I don't disagree with anything you have said. I am only pointing out that because the missing 3 months from FY2012 has been caught up in only 6 months, it introduces the potential for use in excess of the allocation. Like you, I wish to see what approvals over the next 1-2 months look like.

Imagine if the extra FB visas had not materialised!

I am finding EB1 very difficult to predict this year. There are very few non EB1-I approvals on Trackitt. That's a problem because non EB1-I is likely to represent 75% of total EB1 approvals. Currently, they only represent 16% of Trackitt Approvals (compared to 31% in FY2012) and it is dragging the number down to the mid 30's.

If EB1-I numbers on Trackitt are considered more representative of EB1 performance as a whole this year, then EB1 is heading for similar usage to FY2012.

I have no idea which is the correct interpretation.

---

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gcpursuit

Spec,

Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.

From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?

thanks!

---

Am I missing something here, Extra Visas from FB are not coming ? how can that we be, I thought those were from FY2012.
So how come they be wrong on it ??

Please share your thoughts, gurus !

Thanks
Tatikonda

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by suninphx

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

---

I'm going to speculate. Its 9 months demand realized in 6 months of calendar time because of retrogression last year. So its about another 2.5K/ month for the remainder 6 months. EB2ROW could very well be 40-42K this year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

I'm going to speculate. Its 9 months demand realized in 6 months of calendar time because of retrogression last year. So its about another 2.5K/ month for the remainder 6 months. EB2ROW could very well be 40-42K this year.

---

Thats one way to calculate. Another (very simplistic) way would be 25/9*12 ~33K

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by suninphx

Thats one way to calculate. Another (very simplistic) way would be 25/9*12 ~33K

---

Plus the the 3 months "missing" from FY2012.

So it would actually be 25/9*15 ~42K

Generally, September doesn't see such high approvals, so a bit lower than that maybe.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tatikonda

Am I missing something here, Extra Visas from FB are not coming ? how can that we be, I thought those were from FY2012.
So how come they be wrong on it ??

Please share your thoughts, gurus !

Thanks
Tatikonda

---

Tatikonda,

There will be extra visas, but even with them, the numbers available may not clear much of PD2008.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by suninphx

sbhagwat - can you please explain how did you arrive at 42K number for EB2-WW? If I am following the recent posts here correctly then 9 months demand seem to have resulted in ~25 K approvals. To reach 42k for EB2-WW this FY ..approvals need to come at ~2.8K/month. In my opinion EB2-WW will consume -35k-36k visa this FY.

---

suninphx,

In FY2012, the monthly average for EB2-WW was 2.8k over 9 months. For FY2011 it was 2.9k / month.

When we consider 9 months didn't we cover those 3 months? may be I am missing something.

Also, are you saying that EB2-WW will go in next FY with 'zero' pending cases?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by suninphx

When we consider 9 months didn't we cover those 3 months? may be I am missing something.

Also, are you saying that EB2-WW will go in next FY with 'zero' pending cases?

---

This year to date = 9 months worth of approvals in 6 months.

6 months of year remains.

9 + 6 = 15

Overall, over 2 FY there are still 24 months of approvals in 24 months, just split asymmetrically.

The numbers pending are rolling numbers. As the old pending cases are approved, new ones take their place. There is no question of having zero pending cases, because that would require zero processing time.

USCIS have just processed the (artificially) higher number of pending cases that built up at the end of FY2012 and the beginning of FY2013 in much the same way as they processed large numbers of EB2-I cases last year.

Spec,

Do you think Mr.Co is repeating the same as last year by over releasing the available quota, this time to Eb2WW ?

9 months worth of EB2 WW cases getting cleared in 6 months might have used the 3rd quarter allocation too, is it not?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec,

Do you think Mr.Co is repeating the same as last year by over releasing the available quota, this time to Eb2WW ?

9 months worth of EB2 WW cases getting cleared in 6 months might have used the 3rd quarter allocation too, is it not?

---

Kanmani,

I don't think so.

I think CO has used under-use in other visa Categories to enable an acceleration of EB2-WW approvals.

Even within the initial EB limit of 140k, he seems to have used pretty close to the 27% limit per quarter allowed, as far as I can tell.

Can we, by any chance call this as quarterly spillover, this time allocated to Eb2ww?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Can we, by any chance call this as quarterly spillover, this time allocated to Eb2ww?

---

Probably.

It certainly made it impossible to allocate any extra numbers to EB2-I, although I am not convinced he would have done so anyway.

Had EB2-WW not needed them, a safer strategy would have been to accelerate EB3-ROW-M-C past July 2007 earlier than he has been able to.

Allocating Fall Down beyond the 7% limit, without good information on future usage, is altogether more risky, as he found out last year.

Thanks Spec.

I think he is neither learning lessons from previous years' nor following a definitive pattern. Suspenseful!!!

I personally believe June 2009 will get through by 2014.

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Probably.

It certainly made it impossible to allocate any extra numbers to EB2-I, although I am not convinced he would have done so anyway.

Had EB2-WW not needed them, a safer strategy would have been to accelerate EB3-ROW-M-C past July 2007 earlier than he has been able to.

Allocating Fall Down beyond the 7% limit, without good information on future usage, is altogether more risky, as he found out last year.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

---

I agree that is possible. As you say, impossible to quantify until after the event.

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).

---

vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

My gut based on all the analysis and speculation so far is that when its all said and done, EB2I will get ALL of the EB1 FD but won't get any FA from EB2ROW. There is nothing concrete to suggest that anything other than normal usage is occuring (other than porting).

---

vizcard,

To be fair, at the moment, that is what I am expecting as well, though it is subject to change.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gc_soon

vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?

---

gc_soon,

I can't speak for vizcard, but I am basing that on the revised allocation to EB2-WW of 38.9k. If they only had the normal 34.4k, they would exceed it comfortably.

Spec - Is there any data out there which suggests that EB1 consumption is equal to or more than last year? In essence what I'm asking is if you are holding your predictions/calculations on page 1?



Regards
Nat

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by natvyas

Spec - Is there any data out there which suggests that EB1 is equal to or more than last year? In essence what I'm asking is if you are holding your predictions/calculations on page 1?

Regards
Nat

---

Nat,

One of the difficulties is that there is a complete absence of any data about EB1, other than Trackitt.

As I said in a post earlier today, I am finding it very difficult to say exactly what EB1 is doing.

Depending on how the calculation is done, I would put the projected number in the 34-39k range. The difference has a big impact.

My page one figures are based on a figure of 35k for EB1 and EB2-WW using their full allocation, but no more.

In general, my prediction would be getting slightly worse, rather than better, but I would like to see a couple more months data.

I would describe my thoughts as "quite fluid" at the moment. :)

I just hope people realize that. I did think the EB2-WW subject was worth discussing and it has generated a good conversation.

Roll on the next Demand Data and VB.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

---

I know of many people from EB2-ROW who got engaged with trackitt last year based on 1)Retrogression and 2)HR 3012.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gc_soon

vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

To be fair, at the moment, that is what I am expecting as well, though it is subject to change.

gc_soon,

I can't speak for vizcard, but I am basing that on the revised allocation to EB2-WW of 38.9k. If they only had the normal 34.4k, they would exceed it comfortably.

---

Spec -You are correct. I was assuming regular quota + FB extra.

At this point, we are getting into wait and watch mode. I would be happy to see atleast some guidance as part of the May visa bulletin, EB2-I is almost one year into retrogression.

So based on regular quota plus fb extra, what is the expected PD movement by fy2013?