I am not sure if it is already updated on this thread but the Labor processing dates have been updated on the http://icert.doleta.gov/
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I am not sure if it is already updated on this thread but the Labor processing dates have been updated on the http://icert.doleta.gov/
gtyagi,Quote:
Originally Posted by gtyagi
Thank you.
Sorry, I missed the question previously.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
The data can be found in the USCIS Dashboard under I-526. Then download the raw data.
The number is the sum of All Other Pending & Awaiting customer action.
My data goes back further than is now available.
Thanks for getting back to it..
Have a look at the below website, they have published EB-5 backlog data.
I was looking into verifying for myself.
http://eb5-visa.net/blog/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I had the lucidtext.com figures already.
I can't work out how the person has arrived at the Backlog as a % of Adjudicated figures. They do not match up to the published figures.
I can't go all the way back to FY2005 but I do have the Backlog at the end of FY2009 onwards.
The % on that basis is
FY2009 - 35% compared to 16% in article
FY2010 - 73% compared to 43% in article
FY2011 - 173% compared to 131% in article
FY2012 - 108% compared to 85% in article
I actually think the backlog raw number is more important.
The current 6,075 I-526 cases pending represents 14,094 EB5 approvals (142% of normal quota) at the current 80% approval rate for I-526 and the 2.9 immigrants per approved I-526.
Historically, using the same assumptions (actually, in some years approval % have been higher), the corresponding number of EB5 approvals in the backlog at the end of the FY has been
FY2009 - 1,192 = 12% of normal quota
FY2010 - 2,610 = 26% of normal quota
FY2011 - 7,765 = 78% of normal quota
FY2012 - 11,642 = 117% of normal quota
At the point the backlog stops growing (or worse starts to decrease), there is a potential explosion in EB5 approvals. Only the current very slow adjudication process by USCIS is keeping the numbers in check.
USICS statistics is the final word. I have put my comments in between the lines. For my calculation purposes I am in full agreement with you on EB5. Somewhere in July timeframe is USICS shifting their processing of eB5 from CA to Washington?.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Gurus I have quick question regarding AC21. My priority date is May'08 - EB2I. If I change my Job in Jun'13 and If my date is current in Aug'13. Will I be able to get my GC after AC21? or it's bad decision to move at this time frame?
Shouldnt be an issue. Id have your lawyer draft the letter to the USCIS (there is no AC21 form) and get an EVL from the new company and send those to the USCIS in the July timeframe. If you can send a paystub, thats good too.Quote:
Originally Posted by eb20508
Hey,
I was going through previous years demand data information and now I have 2 points/questions. Hopefully gurus can shed some light:
1- Can we assume porting numbers by looking at demand data of previous 2 FY 2011,2012? cumulative reduction is 4994 (11800 - 6806) till Jan 1 2007 and cannot be higher. So average porting in last 2 FY is 2500 till Jan 1 2007. Is this safe assumption.
EB3 Demand data till Jan 1 2007
Sep 2010-----56050
Sep 2011-----51100
Sep 2012-----44250
total reduction - 11800
EB3 visa issued in fiscal year
2012----2804
2011----4002
Total EB3 issued--6806
2- The demand data reduction for EB3 from Jun 12 to April 13 is 4850. And total EB3 visa issued will be 234*11 months= 2574 visas. That means around (4850-2574=2276) 2276 may have ported to EB2 in 11 months. Some of them already have GC issued in past 6 months as date is stuck at Sep 2004 (5*234=1170).
Even though USCIS is saying demand data shows only preadjudicated cases. Then where does 1106 demand reduction go. They all cannot be pre Sep 2004.
Jun 2012 45250
Oct 2012 43900
Apr 2013 40400
4850 -- Total reduction
2574 --EB3 visa issued
1170 -- EB2 ported visa issued in 5 months
1106 -- ??????????
I hope you guys can provide some insight on these.
During the past few months I have analyzed the demand data as well as USICS inventory in multiple ways. Some movements in data is normally not possible when priority date is not current. So the data that we have is not fully accurate.
Now let me try to answer your question:-
The total reduction in demand is spread between different years. So it is certain, that all is not before 2004. That points to couple of possibilities.
a) Applications filed when priority dates are current is slowly showing up
b) Data clean up is happening
c) Some percentage of porting is getting reflected even when priority dates are not current
it can be any of the three or also various combination of the three.
Let me try to address the basic question you have, which is porting. As our understanding of data is limited to various interpretations, it is extremely difficult to quantify it. But from my analysis with the data we have, there is ATLEAST 40% increase in porting on a monthly basis and we have 16 months of demand in this fiscal. So now the question is what is the max possible for porting. Honestly I don't have a clear cut answer. if you browse couple of pages in this thread you can see Spec helping me out in figuring out one way of looking into the scenario.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
I believe if new job is good for your career don't miss opportunity. Legally no problem if same or similar job with salary >= needed for GC position as in labor when filed.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I feel there will always be pattern of big retrogression in formative quarters of a FY and depending on SO, movement in last quarter. This might change when CO reaches inventory running out.Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013
And probability of 5/2008 is on the low end like 0.1. A chance is a chance though.
With the prediction for the spillover numbers dwindling down everyday, how much likely is it for a PD of Aug 2007 (485 filed already) for EB2I to have his GC in FY2013?
100%. I can't see a scenario where you won't get a GC based on numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwait100
Vizcard, can we say the same for PD of Dec 31, 2007. I'm in a crossroads at work., need to take few important decisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
thankyou,
Yes. I think so.Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
dec2007 - what he said ^Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
are you speaking for me now Q ? :p just kidding :)
LoL! I didn't realize that. Sorry. But to answer his question .... yes I do think 2007 Dec should easily cruise through.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
How about PD of 03/25/2008 getting GC this year?
Based on the predictions, it looks like Aug 2008 PD might become current this year.
What about October 2008 Gurus? You think max by next year?
I got my EAD last year in March 2012. But with Baby#1 on the way, i wanted to take up something part time and quit full time. I understand EAD would not allow that since i am the primary applicant. I am eagerly waiting for the GC that would allow me part time work schedule.
My husband and i both have separate GC applications and PD's.
Hello gurus,
Any Prediction for EB2 I May Visa Bulletin?
It will stay same or retrogress as co has saidQuote:
Originally Posted by helooo
Hi Gurus,
What kind of impact will CIR have on the visa movement. Is there going to any relief for EB IC candidates or will it all be about Family Visas and Illegal immigrants?
Thanks!
Deb
Welcome to Q3, although I think it will be rather uneventful for EB2-I.
EB2-ROW reached the total number of Trackitt approvals seen in FY2012 in late March 2013.
EB2-M & EB2-P have both exceeded the number in FY2012 as well, though the number of Trackitt approvals for these two Countries is quite low.
Nonetheless, it is likely that EB2-WW has already reached 25k approvals for the year.
If so, to merely use up their allocation for the year requires only a further 14k approvals, after which they will start using Fall Down from EB1.
That is an average of 2.3k per month, which is less than 85% of the average seen in both of the last 2 years.
It is a warning sign that we should be aware of.
Hopefully, EB2-WW approvals will now start to level off.
Booooooo ... JK :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It is a waiting game. I for one am not going to stress about this until July and I hope others do the same too.
Trackitt sample trend makes total sense. The current demand is 9 months of demand in 6 months. Last year we had 9 months. March EB2-ROW approval levels were similar compared to March of last fiscal, considering people may come back and update in the next few days.38-39K demand EB2WW, is probably where the demand is headed to. One more month may give us a better picture of demand levelling. What is making it difficult to conclude is, I dont see those trends from labor data.
On the EB1 side, possibility of more spillovers than I previously thought!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec / Matt,
Any idea what % of EB 2 WW approvals during the first 6 months of 2013 is for 2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks.
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I don't disagree with anything you have said. I am only pointing out that because the missing 3 months from FY2012 has been caught up in only 6 months, it introduces the potential for use in excess of the allocation. Like you, I wish to see what approvals over the next 1-2 months look like.
Imagine if the extra FB visas had not materialised!
I am finding EB1 very difficult to predict this year. There are very few non EB1-I approvals on Trackitt. That's a problem because non EB1-I is likely to represent 75% of total EB1 approvals. Currently, they only represent 16% of Trackitt Approvals (compared to 31% in FY2012) and it is dragging the number down to the mid 30's.
If EB1-I numbers on Trackitt are considered more representative of EB1 performance as a whole this year, then EB1 is heading for similar usage to FY2012.
I have no idea which is the correct interpretation.
seattlet,Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
There is some breakdown by PD in this post for EB2-ROW. The Trackitt numbers for EB2-M and EB2-P are a bit low for me to feel confident they are entirely reliable.
If that is not what you are asking, then I think you need to define exactly what you mean by "2012 retrogressed EB2 WW folks".
The major surge of receipts (according to Trackitt) was seen in June 2012 (just before retrogression) and in November 2012 (when EB2-WW became Current again). 17% and 26% of those remain pending on Trackitt. Given that there is a % on Trackitt that never update their case, I would say the majority of those cases have probably now been dealt with.
Hello Gurus,
I have a situation and I would really appreciate all your insights. My PD is 29-June-2009 EB2-I : No I-1485 filed yet. My wife is on H1B too (thankfully). Her 6 years of H1b expires in sep 2015. Do you think we would get our GC before its expiration. Should we try to start a new petition for her so that she can extend her H1b.
With all the spillover numbers getting weak by the minute, when do you think things will move to 2009?
Thanks!
gcpursuit,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
I hesitate to even attempt to answer this question.
It is too far in the future.
My personal opinion is that your PD will not have become Current by September 2015.
To do so would require too many approvals and unless EB were to continue to receive large amounts of extra numbers from FB, I don't see where that number of visas would come from.
I would not want to guess when the Cut Off Dates will move to 2009. There are too many variables.
I think passage of CIR is your best hope.
Spec,
Thank you for your opinion.I was hoping that the extra visas from FB would clear a lot of 2008 cases. That looks impossible now.
From historical data, how many extra visas does EB2-I get at the minimum end? Is there such a number?
thanks!
Wow, I am a bit surprised (due to lack of knowledge about the entire process) that 2009 PD will have tough time getting GC in Sept 2015. So I guess the general assumption that GC in 4-5 years from your PD (which is even mentioned as a general rule on page 1 by Q) is no longer valid. So is it now going to be 6-7 years?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
You can find the historical figures here.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
The lowest figure in the time period (FY2009) gave 7.5k extra visas to EB2-IC. You need to look at the figures and understand the historical factors that influenced them. As an example, in FY2009 5.7k of those extra visas came from EB5, which wouldn't be repeated today. Other factors may have changed for the positive. For example, EB4 approvals have reduced.
In most years, another factor (or factors) have ensured that EB2-IC received more spillover than that seen in FY2009.
Spec,
Are you now expecting less that 14K for EB2I?
eterdone,Quote:
Originally Posted by geterdone
Sorry to be so gloomy.
I think it is almost inevitable that wait times will increase, due to the sheer number of EB2-I cases that are pending and the number of visas likely to be available.
Let me use a very simplistic extrapolation. Please don't get hung up about the actual numbers used in the example.
From the beginning of FY2013, to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUL09 required about 32k approvals for EB2-I, if there were no other cases to account for.
However, the above does not account for porting. For the example, let's assume there are 6k extra for FY2013 and 4k for each subsequent year.
To reach the above COD would require 32+6 = 38k in one year (FY2013). Average approvals required per year = 38k.
To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4 = 42k in two years (FY2013-FY2014). Average approvals required per year = 21k.
To reach the above COD would require 32+6+4+4 = 46k in three years (FY2013-FY2015). Average approvals required per year = 15.3k.
Given the current trends, I don't see where that number would come from within the EB allocation alone.
Maybe I am just not imaginative enough. :)
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With the demand in EB2 WW are you changing your predictions about SOFAD and dates this year or do you thing its too early. It seems EB2 WW is slated to hit 40,000. On another note its kind of strange that with this kind of demand theres been no word from CO about a cutoff for EB2 WW
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
CO did mention the possibility of EB2-WW retrogression at one point, but I think that was before the extra FB visas were announced.
Unless CO "pre-allocates" extra visas to EB2-I and then runs out of visas available to EB2 as a whole, then there is no prospect of EB2-WW retrogressing, however high the numbers might realistically reach.
EB2-WW are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down from EB1 (until they reach the 7% limits themselves) and that would cover any number EB2-WW might reach.
EB2-P would be most at risk, but they have several thousand extra visas within the overall 7% limit to play with. Very high EB2-P usage would only affect the number of approvals that EB3-P could receive and still stay within the overall 7% limit.
I want to wait and watch a little longer before updating any forecast.
The only place where CO is said to have talked about retro for WW is on cilaw blog. Theres no official word about it like he did for EB5 in november nor anything about it in february before FB was allocated. Any ways I see now that WW will not retrogress. But what do you think would be the final number for WW- 39000-42000? Or can it go higher than that? at 42000 WW we are looking at 3000 EB1 + 4000 EB4 and 5 = 7000 SOFAD. What are ur thoughts?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hi Spec,
In agreement with you on the representation of countries except India is very low for a statistical prediction. But I was looking at EB1C, I did observe a big drop in I-140 approvals for the six months ended March 31st. (71 Vs 108). Thoughts??
Thank GOD, If FB spillovers were not materialized, it would have been a major disaster year, with effects far spread into following fiscals!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator