The point that post is making is that, unused EBs don't make a change in total allocation numbers in FB. So for all practical purposes, total FB allocation is 226,000.
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Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS based on applicants with current FAD?
I would look at it the other way , If everyone were to send their Medicals then there will be further delays . If its not mandatory to send a doc to the USCIS then you might as well wait as sending more info delays things .
Honestly they need the Medicals only when the Final Action dates get closer and I hope they ask for them only when Final action dates are close by as Medicals can anywhere between 500-1000 dollars today . For a family of 4 that will be 4K and most companies don't pay for dependents .
In 2012 I paid $250 , in 2018 it was $550 , just for the doc to sign a few pages . My friend paid 950 last month in the Bay area.
2-3 months of forward movement will not ensure effective utilization of the available visas.
Eb2 has a nearly 10,000 with pending 485 for the last 8 years.
Lot of Eb3 applicants from 2009 end are already getting greened. There are no new applicants for Eb1, and 2 from ROW to use any of these numbers 3 will have limited demand that can be covered within a month or 2
This is provided USCIS/DOS does not want to keep visa numbers available for Consulate applications starting Jan 2021. If Consulates open on Jan 2021 then EB2- ROW & EB3-ROW which is current can receive more applications from outside the country. I believe they will keep some buffer for that possibility and will not move EB2-I and EB3-I on the basis of the demand vs visa availability seen currently
Consular applications are going to be so hard to predict compared to AOS because of Covid. Worldwide cases are only ramping up now so I don't know what will prompt them to open up consulates.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Could it be possible (wishful thinking) that they assigned visa number from last years lot ( so they don't go waste) and just advancing dates based on the assessment of work load they can manage due to COVID? In in November VB we may see a big jump, again wishful thinking...:)
I think the numbers are there this fiscal, its all about USCIS having a strategy on how to allocate them and when to do it. EB2-I cases until May-2010 are clearly the low hanging fruits that can be cleared off right away. Also, remember that interviews could be waived too for many straightforward cases due to COVID. All in all, if you have a PD within the the first half of 2010 I would say you are sitting pretty and could even get greened by the Q1 of this fiscal. By then, the pipeline for H2 of 2010 should begin taking shape too. Also, if JB wins there is a possibility that the interviews for EB GC might be made optional based on case by case. Those are the tailwinds I see that could reduce the wastage of visas by a large extent. We all know what the headwinds are so tried pointing out the brighter side possibilities here.
It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.
That tells me that the filing dates will be kept the same with USCIS continuing to honor them. The delay is really not a big impact then as there are no net new cases that need to be prepared and not a lot of surprise value to it as opposed to what we saw last month.
If they integrate HK into the Mainland China quota for immigration purposes, they may need to carefully word that in the bulletin because trust me, lawsuits are going to be filed. It will be a fiasco if a lawsuit is filed and they have to reissue the bulletin with thousands of people already applying in the meantime. I don't think it's going to alter the numbers, but the language in the bulletin subtext could be what they are sweating out about.
I think USCIS will keep the filing dates and honor them in November. After all, why not for more fees when they already let ppl. apply for the 485 and associated benefits by filing in October? I don't see any practical incentive for them to stop it now. I won't be surprised if they honor filing dates in December too. However, I will be surprised if they further advance filing dates within Q1 though.