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Update from Shusterman law firm:
EB-2 Movement in May
Will EB-2 India will advance "substantially" in May?
There are 18,000 persons with EB-2 priority dates in 2006 who are waiting for green cards, 13,000 of them from India.
Given the 7% country quota, we expect the India EB-2 to move forward in May between 2 weeks and 2 months.
The dates will move eventually - July or before. Whether the movement will be in May or Jun is anybody's guess. We can only hope they do move in May.
If the assumption is 12K numbers will fall down in May - then the dates should move by 6-9 months. If the dates don't move, clearly the fall down hasn't materialized.
Last year we didn't see any FD FA until Q4. Sorry to be stating this cold fact. But just wanted to stay away from hype and emotion.
Firstly, let me be clear that I'm talking about the PDs of:May-June-July of 2007. ( My typo before when I said 2006)
If the dates move until April 2007 in the coming VB, the chances for further movement this year will slim down significantly.
On the other hand, if they move the dates to Sept-Oct 2006 in May 2011 VB, the chances for reaching May-June-July of 2007 increase significantly.
Well, if DOS moves the dates to Aug-2007 in May VB, of course that's the best case scenario:)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifaith
Leo ... very wise observation. Agree.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
I am no lawyer but I think the country Quota of 7% shoudn't apply over spillover. Anyone .. please comment.....
Qesemk .. any comments on shusterman's news update
Quote:
Originally Posted by alex99
7% won't be applicable to those 12000. They will STRICTLY be given to all EB2 guys in order of their PD.
India dates will move significantly simply based on EB1 FD. Then there will be EB5 and EB2 ROW unused numbers. So all in all things look pretty good. It doesn't matter much if the move happens in May or July. It will happen. Hang in there.
p.s. - If that lawyer actually said that then now you know who not to go to for legal help !! Oink Oink!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by pxu7728
really surprising to know that Shusterman didnot consider 7% before making a statement about months/years. may be he/she just wants to attaract some traffic
kd2008
Really, IV fighting the war without number experts all these years? I lost whatever impression I had on them once they made Q's thread private.
If it takes 10-20 millon dollars for lobbying, why can't they just put it on website and interested parties will arrange that money. Don't ask but donate the money policy doesn't have much success.
Beiber, what you say is true. I thought my post was inappropriate for this thread so I deleted it. My apologies.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Guys, you can post what you think is valuable. I support all organizations that support immigration including IV.
If some of us had some bad experiences with a few individuals, that shouldn't prevent us from contributing to a good cause in future.
Guys I have my priority date at Feb 29, 2008. When do you think it could be current based on revised predictions.
New to this blog! Q, it's good.
I was recently going through some old documents to find my school leaving certificate, saw lots of old stuff, documents, marksheets, true copies, receipts, applications, zeroxes,...etc
Hopefully it will end one day, no more of all these needed!
I agree with most of the analysis so far here. I think if 12k comes in May, then will move till september-october 2006, and should reach till mid 2007 by end of this fiscal season. After that what they do, I can't think! Mine is November 2007, I don't think it's going to hit it this year. But anyways, am readying 485 documents needed just in case.
Following are the numbers before Oct -2006. These total to ~ 12K.
EB2-C - 3521
EB2-I - 9345
Based on this we can expect the PD for EB2-I to be 01-OCT-2006 if the 12K numbers are infused in the system. If not I think these will certailnly come to us in Jul.
kd2008
I didnot mean to direct that post at you, I'm deleting my post too :)
My hunch is that Feb'08 PD will be current sometime between June - Sep'12; we will get a clearer picture in the next few months.Quote:
Originally Posted by collhyd
Fingers crossed for that Feb'08 PD. As far as I can see, there is potential for a PD movement like that. Cheers.
I agree with the above. I myself have a jan 08 PD and while I dont think I have any hopes of a GC in the next few months, I think there is a fair chance of being able to file I-485 in the next 3/4 mnths. Its impossible to predict what they will do once the dates hit Aug 07 or once they realize they have more than enough visas to clear the backlog.Quote:
Originally Posted by anuran
Another link on the 12K FD to EB2; doesn't provide any new information but describes again on how spillover is handled amongst retrogressed countries:
http://www.usimmlaw.com/EB2Story.htm
"The State Department is about to start allocating more than 12,000 extra visa numbers to EB2 applicants. Most will go to applicants from India. The EB2 India date in the May Visa Bulletin will advance for the first time since September, 2010. EB2 India and China may continue to advance for the rest of the fiscal year - unlikely to pass December, 2006."Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
interesting statement where he/she mentions India and China may continue to advance for the rest of the fiscal year - unlikely to pass December, 2006.
Pch
Actually I feel it might not take till June 2012 ,if the USCIS advances all the way to Aug 2007 in the May/June VB the dates will not probably move much till the end of the year.If they move it only till April 2007 ...chances are highly improved they will push it all the way to Dec 2007 or Jan 2008 ...so you might get to file much sooner.Again this is all gut feeling , cannot back it up by numbers.
Mine is in Nov 2007 and I am expecting USCIS will probably move the Post Aug 2007/Sep 2007 group of apps along with the 2008 ones in a chunk movement and not in increments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Hi Q,
I note that you have updated the opening thread in the first page, with my quote of numbers. Thanks for the same.
Can you please revise them as follows:
Low / Pessimistic: 28K
High/ Optimistic: 34K
Net SOFAD estimated: 30K
PD cut off date: March 2007.
Thanks,
GCW'07
I thought my pd would be current ( Oct 2007 ) but looks like there are lot of *'s(if's and when's) attached to it... Damn it...
Nishant welcome. Thanks for kind words. Lots of people are doing a lot of good work and generally they respect each other here. So the credit goes to many many people you will come across here.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I agree w what PCH said. Likely Jun-Sep 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by collhyd
Thanks GCW. Apprecaite it. I have updated teh header.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
May 2011 DOS Demand Data.. Let number crunching begin :)
The demand data hasn't changed, so the predictions are the same. Visa bulletin generally comes a day after the demand data. However if a government shutdown happens, the visa bulletin might get delayed unless they release that today.
DoS demand data published : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Calculated break-up month wise as given below:
Month India China Cumu Total
May-06 1312 0 1312
Jun-06 1696 0 3008
Jul-06 1505 265 4778
Aug-06 1677 693 7148
Sep-06 1745 773 9666
Oct-06 1747 732 12145
Nov-06 1737 667 14549
Dec-06 1881 770 17200
If 12K visas are allocated in May'11 VB, then cut off date will be 10/22/2006.
Did you mean to Sept 22nd or Oct 22nd?
Until Sept, we have only 9666, so I believe we should cross Sept and move into Oct.
Thanks for point out the typo. Corrected now.Quote:
Originally Posted by nayekal
GCwait2007,
As per your data for Oct..the grand total is 12145.
Oct-06 1747 732 12145
We have a monthly quota of 240 per month for each India and China, which adds up to 12625. Does it mean, we have chances to see the bulletin hitting Nov 2006 as well.
It is out. 01 JUL 2006.
ITS all about the porting folks.
"D. VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
Family-sponsored: The extremely high level of demand during the first few months of FY-2011 resulted in the retrogression of most worldwide cut-off dates in January or February. While most of these cut-offs have begun to advance slowly, heavy demand in the Family First preference has caused a further retrogression for May. At this time it is not possible to predict the rate of forward movement, but some movement is anticipated in most categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)
China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
"No August or September estimate is possible at this time. " Thats when the normal spillover kicks in correct?
2 months movement might not be that bad after all. It says that it will move one or more weeks for EB2-I in the next couple of bulletins; so it might push that PD to Aug'06 during July bulletin. The final push might come during the Aug - Sep bulletins which (i hope) will push the PDs to somewhere in 2007.
Yes, that's true. In the past couple of years the normal spillover has been mainly from EB2-ROW and EB5 and this year the additional numbers are from EB1.Quote:
Originally Posted by viypr07
Good News Overall that finally EB2-I moved but definitely short of expectations by atleast 3 months. I believe the full 12K was not allocated we should see forward movement in June hopefully as well. I believe that porting number is the uncertainity or is being grossly over-estimated.
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)
Teddy
have you noticed this?
in the last section, 'Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences'
looks like EB2 ROW will definitely give some spill across,
just like significant means 2 months, may be high demand for porting means 5000 :)
This does not appear to be good news. DOS has stated that porting is "very high" and it appears like we will not see a whole lot of movement in Q4Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
EB2I & EB2C are not showing same PD in May 2011 VB and I am wondering how do they apply Spillover VISAs now? in-addition monthly quota:confused:
it's hilarious, porting numbers are not showing up in the demand data but impacting the date movement