Originally Posted by
Spectator
justvisiting,
I totally agree with you.
Expressed in terms of numbers today, for EB2 it means:
a) 40% instead of 28.6% increases the number to 56k.
b) Elimination of dependents from numerical limits increases the number to 112k (it will be higher for EB3).
c) Elimination of STEM PhD, physicians etc probably increases the effective number to 120k.
EB2-WW don't use more than 35k tops in a normal FY, so that leaves at least 85k for EB2-IC (probably more because EB2-WW also have STEM PhD etc). EB2-C don't actually require that many to become Current but would move at the same pace as EB2-I.
Backlog to May 2010 is approx 50k for EB2-IC currently and will reduce by the end of the year.
Using worst case scenario, let's call it 40k at the end of FY2013. You can just call it the present 50k - it doesn't make much difference.
There's about 45k EB2-IC cases from May 2010 to Jan 2012 based on PERM figures by my estimation.
85k available would pretty much make EB2-IC Current in the first year or early in the second year.
I haven't even considered the other factors mentioned which would improve this calculation (only the 3 above).
I haven't looked at EB3. Obviously that would take a little longer, but it isn't going to take that long to become Current.
On the negative side, it seems almost inevitable that processing times will increase - I wouldn't be totally surprised if they increase to 1-2 years initially. Even if USCIS have any plans to increase capacity, it takes time to train new IO.
I look forward to seeing the actual Bill text. That will answer the questions that are currently left hanging. Until then, I am out of the discussion.