EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-12-2011, 01:47 PM
skpanda

I think, usually employers start PERM for those who are already employed with them on a work Visa (H1B or whatever). There will be very few cases where they will file PERM before the employee joins them. Hence they will just delay the filing by that many months.

Yes...there will be some addition to SOFAD but it may not be significant enough.

PS: I guess people (including me) have become pessimistic about everything positive that 'may' happen. Thanks to our Black September Visa Bulletin. That is why you can see pessimistic comments from me.. who has always been optimistic about some good movement in 2011, a good BTM or even CURRENT for EB2.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Agree that delayed people will still file in "n"th month whenever system comes back. But some people do drop out of the line altogether because of lost opportunity., change in plans etc.

The more delay in PERM restoration will be all the better. But can't say anything now. Will have to see how long this goes. Since there are only 4000 cases mentioned in the original article ... this shouldn't last more than 2-3 months max.
08-12-2011, 01:51 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

This interim suspension of Prevailing wage Determinations will stop the employers from filing perm . ( remember PWD is the first stage of the perm process)

This two months lag in PWD will delay all perm filings by 2 months . So if we assume 10 months of perm filings , with the quantity of 12 months would slow down perm approvals .

Hence expecting more sofad if all assumptions come true.

My employer is about to start working on my three year H1-B extension. Will the PWD suspension affect my case? My current H1-B lasts until December 31st, 2011
08-12-2011, 01:52 PM
tanu_75

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

may be.. may be not...

I am sure they will fix the system in 1 or 2 months (I think the date was 1st Oct 2011).

So say, there on an average 3K EB2-ROWs apply every month (Total of 36K annually...just a number for discussion sake). Say the system is fixed in 3 months. In the 4th month 3K + 9K people will apply.

They may apply when it comes back and most likely they will but what matters is how many get approved by next April or May. If we assume DOL will approve at the same rate as before, then by April/May we should see a decrease in I-140's. This is kinda similar to the 2002/2003 case where a whole number of Labor cases were stuck in the BEC blackhole and dates moved like crazy for the lucky ones whose Labor wasn't stuck there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Agree that delayed people will still file in "n"th month whenever system comes back. But some people do drop out of the line altogether because of lost opportunity., change in plans etc.

The more delay in PERM restoration will be all the better. But can't say anything now. Will have to see how long this goes. Since there are only 4000 cases mentioned in the original article ... this shouldn't last more than 2-3 months max.

I guess the other variable is what does this mean when it does come back up. Does the process change, do processing times go up or down, approval/denial rates go up or down. Another factor whose impact is still unknown.
08-12-2011, 01:54 PM
skpanda

Agree with you...

we will have to wait and see... the total effect of this System Down thing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanu_75

They may apply when it comes back and most likely they will but what matters is how many get approved by next April or May. If we assume DOL will approve at the same rate as before, then by April/May we should see a decrease in I-140's. This is kinda similar to the 2002/2003 case where a whole number of Labor cases were stuck in the BEC blackhole and dates moved like crazy for the lucky ones whose Labor wasn't stuck there.

I guess the other variable is what does this mean when it does come back up. Does the process change, do processing times go up or down, approval/denial rates go up or down. Another factor whose impact is still unknown.
08-12-2011, 01:58 PM
mygctracker

Agreed it might be better for SOFAD. But it no good for people who want to jump the ship and pursue newer opportunities, right? As GC process with new employer will be further delayed...

Any thoughts on that aspect.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Agree that delayed people will still file in "n"th month whenever system comes back. But some people do drop out of the line altogether because of lost opportunity., change in plans etc.

The more delay in PERM restoration will be all the better. But can't say anything now. Will have to see how long this goes. Since there are only 4000 cases mentioned in the original article ... this shouldn't last more than 2-3 months max.
08-12-2011, 02:08 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Vedu

If you are extending H1b completing first span of 3 years, you are good to go.

Thanks Kanmani. Yes, I am applying for my first extension and I already have an approved I-140. We have to be always careful of everything in this crazy system!! You never know what rule may change when.
08-12-2011, 02:08 PM
gchopeful123

What's the similarity between Sep VB and Virender Sehwag?

--- Both were touted to be saviors but turned out to be golden ducks.
08-12-2011, 02:08 PM
whereismygclost

H1-B Extension and PWD Delay

same here ...i am about to start my 3 year H1-B extension ..will this PWD delay my H1 extension? Gurus,what are your thoughts?

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

My employer is about to start working on my three year H1-B extension. Will the PWD suspension affect my case? My current H1-B lasts until December 31st, 2011
08-12-2011, 02:14 PM
qesehmk

Agree. That is zero-sum game. And that's why things like removing dependent visa count and increasing cap are beneficial to everybody. Country limits as much as are hurtful to EB2IC, are still a zero sum game.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mygctracker

Agreed it might be better for SOFAD. But it no good for people who want to jump the ship and pursue newer opportunities, right? As GC process with new employer will be further delayed...

Any thoughts on that aspect.

Quote:

Originally Posted by whereismygclost

same here ...i am about to start my 3 year H1-B extension ..will this PWD delay my H1 extension? Gurus,what are your thoughts?

For renewal I am not sure if wage determination is required at all. When mine was renewed .. at least I never noticed anything. HR and Lawyers would do everything. But I always felt that there was no PWD involved in H1 renewal.
08-12-2011, 02:24 PM
PlainSpeak

Intersting Thread on trackitt

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
08-12-2011, 02:30 PM
qesehmk

plainspeak you would do better service to others by putting your own comment about what the thread is and your own take on it.

Whatever is mentioned is fantasy of desperate EB3s and the lawyer is fanning it. If we apply the same logic then why can't EB1-I be held back to allow EB2I to catch up?

Sorry for the harsh words. I have great sympathy for anyone stuck in the queue. But I think we do disservice by spreading these rumours. Secondly I would've appreciated your take on it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
08-12-2011, 02:37 PM
mesan123

Well i agree completely( for the money part ). But it is still my belief H1 transfer is not easy now as it used to be couple of years before. i always feel known devil is always better than unknown angel... :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

I am a person who has been in this country for 10 years and have filed mutiple H1extension and am on EAD and i can tell you this with certainity that nothing is certain in the GC process. I know of someone who got his GC and was harrased at POE as to how come he got his GC in 5 years. I myself was harrased at POE when i came back on AP where the officer asked me to prove to him that i was legal in this country on H1B before i filed for 485.

Hence worrying about H1B stamping issues in India is just a small part of what you will face further down the line. The ultimate safe point is citizenship so hankering for atleast a EAD/AP to be safe from H1B stamping is short term thinking.

The bottom line is till you get your GC you are an Alien in this coutry albeit a Legal Alien but still an Alien.

Since no one can predict the future and since VB prediction is more difficult that predicting the future, it would be better for all Post July 2007 people to start thinking of backup plans, if they cannot file for 485 in near future. Those who have better job offers should take the offer based on thier risk tolerance and kind of company they get the offer from and how much the company will supoport their GC process.

Myself with PD 2005 in EB3 India have stopped thinking about GC and have started thinking about my backup plan and thatis to make as much money as possible. So that is my criteria - MAKE AS MUCH MONEY AS POSSIBLE - and screw this GC process. If i get GC then good if not atleast i made money and gained experience and knowledge and promotion which will assit me in getting a job back in India.
08-12-2011, 02:38 PM
PlainSpeak

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

plainspeak you would do better service to others by putting your own comment about what the thread is and your own take on it.

Whatever is mentioned is fantasy of desperate EB3s and the lawyer is fanning it. If we apply the same logic then why can't EB1-I be held back to allow EB2I to catch up?

Q, I said intersting not great news. That is my comment on the thread.

Coming to the desperacy of EB3 I and the lawwyers fanning it, my question is what does the lawyer gain by fanning it. If the lawyer wants to make money he should be stating the opposite that EB3 I is in a very bad state and that porting is the only option, where by the lawyer makes money. A laywer is also part of AILA and AILA does have some inside track with CIS.

In MY OPINION I think July 2007 is the milestone or millstone around the neck of CIS and they will do whatever they can to clear up all backlog before that date before they start processing new application after July 2007, because July 2007 fiasco was a special case which has no precendent and caused CIS to have people with AOS status for 4 -5 years.

No issue taken towards your harsh tone. Understand teh frustation everyone is under especially post July 2007 filers who has H1B issues to contend with
08-12-2011, 02:39 PM
mesan123

Dont wory guys....PWD for H1b is not getting delayed...i applied mine on last week wednesday and got approved PWD yesterday. I am applying for 3 year H1b Extension :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by whereismygclost

same here ...i am about to start my 3 year H1-B extension ..will this PWD delay my H1 extension? Gurus,what are your thoughts?
08-12-2011, 02:41 PM
Gclongwait

Quote:

Originally Posted by whereismygclost

same here ...i am about to start my 3 year H1-B extension ..will this PWD delay my H1 extension? Gurus,what are your thoughts?

No, My extension is in progress right now and I asked my HR and they this is only affecting Labor Certs
08-12-2011, 02:42 PM
mesan123

No it will not....That stay is only for PERM process. For H1b PWD you can apply now also.

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

My employer is about to start working on my three year H1-B extension. Will the PWD suspension affect my case? My current H1-B lasts until December 31st, 2011
08-12-2011, 02:43 PM
PlainSpeak

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

Well i agree completely( for the money part ). But it is still my belief H1 transfer is not easy now as it used to be couple of years before. i always feel known devil is always better than unknown angel... :)

Yes i agree and i consider myself lucky i am on EAD and not on H1B. Plus H1B filters the job offers one can get.
I think teh approach of all post July 2007 filers shoudl be to to try and get H1B renewal in USA started back again like it used to be before 2005.
08-12-2011, 02:44 PM
mesan123

nice to see soggadu back with happy avatar....
08-12-2011, 02:46 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

No it will not....That stay is only for PERM process. For H1b PWD you can apply now also.

Great...Hopefully this should be my last extension.
08-12-2011, 02:47 PM
mesan123

That was the reason of my previous post also...where people were asking questions if it was good to new jobs because of delays in GC....but thought i will tell few of the experiences i faced and few of my friends...they will atleast make a wise decision....now in USA job search on H1b should not only be for money(bcoz u need to make sure the company you are moving doesnt mess up ur life even more)

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Yes i agree and i consider myself lucky i am on EAD and not on H1B. Plus H1B filters the job offers one can get.
I think teh approach of all post July 2007 filers shoudl be to to try and get H1B renewal in USA started back again like it used to be before 2005.
08-12-2011, 02:53 PM
rdsingh79

Golden Duck AGAIN!!

How about repeat performance from Sehwag....golden duck AGAIN in 2nd innings. I hope next VB does better than Viru...

Quote:

Originally Posted by gchopeful123

What's the similarity between Sep VB and Virender Sehwag?

--- Both were touted to be saviors but turned out to be golden ducks.
08-12-2011, 02:53 PM
PlainSpeak

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

That was the reason of my previous post also...where people were asking questions if it was good to new jobs because of delays in GC....but thought i will tell few of the experiences i faced and few of my friends...they will atleast make a wise decision....now in USA job search on H1b should not only be for money(bcoz u need to make sure the company you are moving doesnt mess up ur life even more)

What i stated was that being on EAD/AP is no less frustating when your job has to be in similar category. Regarding people trying for new job i would say yes they can sit tight for 2 years and hope that they get current and get GC but there is no gaurentee that CIS will make EB2 current. yes i know the facts speak otherwise but CIS has a midn of its own.

Every persons situation is different. I lost 2 job offers because the company does not want to involve with immigration (EAD) in any shape or form. I finally found one which is ok with AC21 sponsership but will not do EB2. Now with EB3 2005 dates i knwo i will not be current for 15 years atleast so i am chnaging my job and will do so every 2-3 years for same position but increased salary.

Now Similarly the H1B guys need to do a cost benefit , risk anlaysis and decide what to do.
08-12-2011, 03:02 PM
qesehmk

PlainSpeak, appreciate your views. Somebody far wiser than me has said and I simply borrow - "Friction is where learning takes place". So while I may not agree with that thread, your perspective by itself is quite valuable.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Q, I said intersting not great news. That is my comment on the thread.

Coming to the desperacy of EB3 I and the lawwyers fanning it, my question is what does the lawyer gain by fanning it. If the lawyer wants to make money he should be stating the opposite that EB3 I is in a very bad state and that porting is the only option, where by the lawyer makes money. A laywer is also part of AILA and AILA does have some inside track with CIS.

In MY OPINION I think July 2007 is the milestone or millstone around the neck of CIS and they will do whatever they can to clear up all backlog before that date before they start processing new application after July 2007, because July 2007 fiasco was a special case which has no precendent and caused CIS to have people with AOS status for 4 -5 years.

No issue taken towards your harsh tone. Understand teh frustation everyone is under especially post July 2007 filers who has H1B issues to contend with
08-12-2011, 03:03 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

nice to see soggadu back with happy avatar....

i cant be sad for long mesan.... so here i am back and bouncing... ;-) ...waise thnx for noticing...
08-12-2011, 03:04 PM
whereismygclost

Thanks

Thanks mesan and gclonwait for ur assuring responses regrading H1 extensions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gclongwait

No, My extension is in progress right now and I asked my HR and they this is only affecting Labor Certs

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