EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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08-12-2011, 11:26 AM
PDJan2008

Thanks! I was pretty hopeful in the summer. But now i seem to be on the border where i might not make it for next year even for EAD (effect of the Sep Bulletin :-( ). I havent really started looking for a different oppurtunity but i know i passed up 2earlier this year thinking this was going to be my year and didnt want to go thro the whole labor... I-140. I think i am confused like most of us here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

PDJan2008,

Welcome to the forum.

That is impossible to answer.

If DOS moved the dates purely on the basis of documentarily qualified applicants, then the dates would move much further. That is what bieber is saying.

If DOS move the dates based on estimates of future Demand, they will move a lot less. That is my counterpoint to the above.

Not a satisfactory answer, I agree.

The whole point, is that DOS has a large array of strategies they can pursue next year. They can probably justify all of them.

I don't know which one, or combination, they will choose, neither am I advocating one over another or which one is more likely.

There are some constraints to repeating the same level of movement in May/June again.

We will only get a clue when something happens in the VB that makes one more likely over the other.
08-12-2011, 11:26 AM
gc_usa

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcq

Not to dampen the spirits, but can't stop remembering the NVC fee notification theory that the forum discussed so much in the past few months.

Any explanation why the dates didn't progress to 2008 based on NVC fee notifications ? Discussing NVC fee theory now may give a better understanding about NVC fees for future discussions.

Looks like DOS was told or shown in May that they will get less demand for EB1 cases and DOS altered NVC to start processing cases in advance. Later in July - AUG USCIS wanted to clear cases ( EB1) so DOS ran out of visas. USCIS lied to DOS. I won't be surprised if DOS hit back and when they run out of demand make date current and punish USCIS.
08-12-2011, 11:30 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

ssvp that is truly great! I wonder if we should be starting a thread on our experiences / problems with startups?

Yes, that would be great. I will definitely contribute to the thread.
08-12-2011, 11:42 AM
srimurthy

The only way out of this whole mess for everyone is to make sure that the whole set of unused visa no. that were lost earlier are recaptured. I am not sure whats the number that was lost.
08-12-2011, 12:02 PM
michaelclarke

Can some one please inform us when DOS will publish the total number of Visas allocated for FY 2012. Last year this was at 140,000.
08-12-2011, 12:07 PM
ct06511

PERM suspension

http://www.proskauer.com/publication...on-perm-cases/
08-12-2011, 12:07 PM
qblogfan

I agree.

I am not sure about these numbers will be lost or not.

We have to make sure that these numbers were applied to EB.

I am worrying that these numbers will be lost eventually.

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

The only way out of this whole mess for everyone is to make sure that the whole set of unused visa no. that were lost earlier are recaptured. I am not sure whats the number that was lost.
08-12-2011, 12:07 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by michaelclarke

Can some one please inform us when DOS will publish the total number of Visas allocated for FY 2012. Last year this was at 140,000.

Last year the Report of the Visa Office 2010 was published on January 20, 2011.

That represents actual visas issued, so we will know how many FB and EB visas were used.

For FY2012, DOS will use the minimum number until USCIS provides the figures necessary to make the accurate determination.

The allocation of visas for FY2011 was finally confirmed as 140,000 in the August VB, since USCIS did not provide the information required until June 9th.

When the Report of the Visa Office 2011 is published, we can determine within a few what the allocation will be for FY2012.

I don't expect any spare visas from FB in FY2012.
08-12-2011, 12:18 PM
rdsingh79

EB3I-->EB2I porting

I am just trying to guesstimate EB3I-->EB2I porting. There are ~55,000 EB3I-485s. Making simple (worst case?) assumption that 20% of folks succeed in porting, results in 55,000*0.2 = 11,000. Assuming 4-5 K porting already happened in FY2011, we can expect another 6-7K max in FY2012(This assumes that EB2 priority dates reach Sep/Oct 2007 by mid-2012). Make sense??
08-12-2011, 12:24 PM
makmohan

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

The best way to avoid confusion is to look at the header of this thread or a number of threads in FACTS and DATA section. We all keep those threads updated.

ok, thanks Q. I'll take a look at those threads as well.

- M
08-12-2011, 12:29 PM
PlainSpeak

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

EB3I-->EB2I porting

I am just trying to guesstimate EB3I-->EB2I porting. There are ~55,000 EB3I-485s. Making simple (worst case?) assumption that 20% of folks succeed in porting, results in 55,000*0.2 = 11,000. Assuming 4-5 K porting already happened in FY2011, we can expect another 6-7K max in FY2012(This assumes that EB2 priority dates reach Sep/Oct 2007 by mid-2012). Make sense??

I think we are assuming a lot. Please remember that all EB3 want to port to EB2. They keyword here is want. That woudl mean that EB3 are looking for ways to port to EB2. Just because 90 % of EB3 haver not found a company and a EB2 qualifiing job does not mean that they have stopped trying. Using economy as a limiter we can argue for or against EB3-EB2 porting at a macro level but at the micro level when things work out for a EB3 and he/she gets a chance to port he/she will go ahead and port. That is something which cannot be determined or estimated.
So 10 % calculation can be used for estimating with the caveat that the actual could be very different from this 10% estimation. Plus the count of 55 k is wrong because that is only EB3 India. I think the count will have to include EB3 all countries since everyone in EB3 would want to port and not just EB3 India.
08-12-2011, 12:30 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by ct06511

http://www.proskauer.com/publication...on-perm-cases/

There you go... more quick perm for Eb2 row and porters... this is turning out to be hell of a ride...
08-12-2011, 12:34 PM
PlainSpeak

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

There you go... more quick perm for Eb2 row and porters... this is turning out to be hell of a ride...

This would impact H1B, EB2 and EB3-EB2 Port. I dont see any impact to EB1. I can see the next couple of VB's with no date movements at all
08-12-2011, 12:36 PM
kolugc

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

kolu...my take on ur questions...

1. Even if my PERM got audited and is delayed or even if my I-140 got RFE and got delayed and is not decided by 2013 summer. I can still use the I-140 from Co A and join back in Co A and use it to apply for 485 right?

Yes provided it is not revoked, as GC process is all about future employment, u can even stay on the process with co A while you are at co B

2. Can I can go to Co B in 2012 Jan and come back join back Co A when my dates are current and then apply for 485?

same answer i guess, provided 140 not revoked and your co A is willing to take u back... u neednt even come back and still have the process going with co A if it is a possibility

3. If all goes well and I got new I-140 from Co B and when dates are current in 2013 summer (and as I said earlier my I-140 from Co A wont be revoked), does that mean I can apply 485 from Co A or Co B? see above

others please correct me if i am wrong

Thanks a lot soggadu for your answers....
08-12-2011, 01:08 PM
08OCT2008

Did you mean "no more quick perm"?

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

There you go... more quick perm for Eb2 row and porters... this is turning out to be hell of a ride...
08-12-2011, 01:10 PM
Chilli19

Can you not travel on your H1? What's the situation?

Its too risky to travel on h1b unless you have a visa stamped on your passport. I visited India in May 2009 and got stuck for 6 months as i was given a 221(g) form and placed in administrative processing. Luckily my wife was on h1b at that time and came back on h4. Then i amended the case from h4 to h1.
Due to the above experience, i called parents to visit me this year and they are with me now.
08-12-2011, 01:18 PM
qesehmk

There is one +ve factor for existing EB2IC backlog. This will delay all EB2 filings... including ROW.... and will increase SOFAD.

If EB4 is affected .... all the better for EB2IC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ct06511

http://www.proskauer.com/publication...on-perm-cases/
08-12-2011, 01:22 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

There is one +ve factor for existing EB2IC backlog. This will delay all EB2 filings... including ROW.... and will increase SOFAD.

If EB4 is affected .... all the better for EB2IC.

I thought the opposite... please explain as time permits...
08-12-2011, 01:30 PM
tanu_75

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

I thought the opposite... please explain as time permits...

If the PERM system is not available till Oct 1st and assuming when it's back it continues at the same rate as before, then we should see around 16% (2/12) decrease in PERM approvals by say April next year. This will reduce by that *2.1 EB3 to EB2 porting or EB2 ROW (EB2 I/C also but 2011 PD's are irrelevant for the spillover discussion).
08-12-2011, 01:32 PM
nishant2200

To some extent, the advantage of the PERM stoppage, maybe negated by the PP in EB1C and the new push for EB5 and EB2 Entrepreneur. Thoughts?
08-12-2011, 01:32 PM
skpanda

may be.. may be not...

I am sure they will fix the system in 1 or 2 months (I think the date was 1st Oct 2011).

So say, there on an average 3K EB2-ROWs apply every month (Total of 36K annually...just a number for discussion sake). Say the system is fixed in 3 months. In the 4th month 3K + 9K people will apply.

There will be some SOFAD as a fallout of this but I do not think it will be significant.

Ofcourse if the Prevailing Wage system is down for 6 or 7 months (HIGHLY UNLIKELY), then we can say, we will have significant increase in SOFAD.

Just my thoughts...

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

There is one +ve factor for existing EB2IC backlog. This will delay all EB2 filings... including ROW.... and will increase SOFAD.

If EB4 is affected .... all the better for EB2IC.
08-12-2011, 01:37 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

may be.. may be not...

I am sure they will fix the system in 1 or 2 months (I think the date was 1st Oct 2011).

So say, there on an average 3K EB2-ROWs apply every month (Total of 36K annually...just a number for discussion sake). Say the system is fixed in 3 months. In the 4th month 3K + 9K people will apply.

There will be some SOFAD as a fallout of this but I do not think it will be significant.

Ofcourse if the Prevailing Wage system is down for 6 or 7 months (HIGHLY UNLIKELY), then we can say, we will have significant increase in SOFAD.

Just my thoughts...

ahh now i got it...thank you Tanu and JJ... on the other hand, just wondering why nobody is still speculating... CO has done this to clear EB2 IC ;-)
08-12-2011, 01:39 PM
nishant2200

Interestingly, one more factor which would stop PWD would be government shutdowns because of budgets, debt ceilings etc. The DOL Labors for H-PERM etc... is not yet funded by user fees, and it would be shutdown, as a non-essential service.
08-12-2011, 01:39 PM
qesehmk

Agree that delayed people will still file in "n"th month whenever system comes back. But some people do drop out of the line altogether because of lost opportunity., change in plans etc.

The more delay in PERM restoration will be all the better. But can't say anything now. Will have to see how long this goes. Since there are only 4000 cases mentioned in the original article ... this shouldn't last more than 2-3 months max.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

may be.. may be not...

I am sure they will fix the system in 1 or 2 months (I think the date was 1st Oct 2011).

So say, there on an average 3K EB2-ROWs apply every month (Total of 36K annually...just a number for discussion sake). Say the system is fixed in 3 months. In the 4th month 3K + 9K people will apply.

There will be some SOFAD as a fallout of this but I do not think it will be significant.

Ofcourse if the Prevailing Wage system is down for 6 or 7 months (HIGHLY UNLIKELY), then we can say, we will have significant increase in SOFAD.

Just my thoughts...
08-12-2011, 01:41 PM
skpanda

haha...

this was done because of a court order. CIS and CO have nothing to do with this. Infact they wanted it to be business as usual and implement the required changes by 1st Jan 2012. Courts came back and wanted the changes to be effective 1st Oct 2011 and stop the current incorrect process (for H2 or whichever Visa).

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

ahh now i got it...thank you Tanu and JJ... on the other hand, just wondering why nobody is still speculating... CO has done this to clear EB2 IC ;-)

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