EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I have to contradict your misguided post. I am from the DC area too BTW ...

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Yes, and DOS is just following the law as it is. I dont think CO particuarly hates or likes any nationalities or immigrant group. He is trying to make sure no visas are wasted at the same time no country gets more than the share allowed as per law. During this people from Dec 2008 can get GC while people from July 2007 can get left hanging, its all luck, the same thing happened in 2008, people with PD of 2006 got greened while people with PD of 2004 were waiting. Now that throttling has started I hope there is a controlled movement and people get GCs in order of their PDs.

goforgreen - yes. i agree. But the cases w PD prior to 15 Aug 2007 are very few. They can't and will not keep the dates at 15 Aug 2007 for more than 3 months. Come July Bulletin the date will move forward.

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

Q, approvals will come but for only PD < Aug 15 2007 till Apr 30, after May 1 that is the date that is most likely going to be current so again approvals for only PD < Aug 15 2007. What I'm wondering is will they move dates starting in July or only in Oct. They are clearly throttling EB2IC, the question till when they will continue to do so. In a way this is good for people with PD < Aug 2007, they will get greened without losing visas to folks with PD of 2009.

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Sorry .... you got a chance of approval since you are prior to the proposed PD. Wonder why are you stuck? Did you call USICIS ? Talked to your senator?

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Originally Posted by kumar19

My PD is JUL 31 2007. With reference to "point b)" above, In general, should I also expect to not to see any progress during april month. ofcouse anything can happen but just would like to see your opinion.

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

Yes, and DOS is just following the law as it is. I dont think CO particuarly hates or likes any nationalities or immigrant group. He is trying to make sure no visas are wasted at the same time no country gets more than the share allowed as per law.

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CO is a very competent person IMHO who is doing his job as his superiors expect him to do. In fact, this is not about ANY individual liking or not liking Indians or Chinese. This is about policies and institutional philosophy of what is in the best interest of USA. I do think ther eis a bias against Indians and Chinese and I do think it is institutional. I also happen to think that individuals working at State Dept are generally quite competent and that none of these movements forwards backward are haphazard. I think they are very well orchestrated movements.

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Originally Posted by gc_dec_2008

Question to all experts!!..my PD Is Dec-16-2008, 485 Application was filed on Jan 20, USCIS wrongly rejected saying PD not current, Refiled on Feb2. Seems like my application is now buried in all Feb applications. Does USCIS Process based on PD or are they processing based on applications received? If its the latter, can I do something to push my application up in the queue?

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Not sure if you got your answer but I'll try to answer anyway. The USCIS loosely processes based on RD but its a grey area there as well. Bottom line is the difference between a Jan 20 filing and a Feb 2 filing is not much in the big scheme of things. Now with retrogression, you can be sure that you will not be short-changed. If approved, you will definitely get your GC before 2009 PDs (give or take considering you are almost a 2009 PD anyway).

There is nothing you can do now to push your case and as I mentioned above, its not going to matter anyway. The options available to "push" the case are available to everyone. Those ofcourse being talking to your Congressmen.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

So just to put this in perspective -

a) People will be able to continue to file 485s through 30th April. They are NOT changing the April bulletin.
b) However we should not expect ANY EB2IC approvals between now and end of April.
c) May 1st onwards some trickle may come down depending on what's teh situation with rest of the world and EB1 in particular.
d) This overall confirms that Sep 2012 dates will hover around Q1 2008.

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I am not an expert but just my 2 cents...don't mean to invoke fear or anxiety in anyone.

I think, this FY's resting point maybe anywhere between Q4, '07 and Q1, '08, based on the spillover available. But next FY, I think the spillover may start only late like previous years.

If you think about it, this year may not be a QSP, in its true sense. When EB2-I/C dates moved forward between Oct-Mar, all the new applications that were received during the period were treated as current like any other category that is current (EB1,EB2-ROW) and if they cleared the scrutiny got allocated a visa number immediately like any other current category. They realized, by now, EB2-I/C has overshot the numbers for the year and are retrogressing. At this point only, they are taking the allocation for the category truly into consideration.

Now that the pipeline is built and the category may not be current anytime sooner, the same process of MSP or QSP may not occur until such time it becomes current again, if at all.

This is just my thought process...feel free to tear it apart.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

CO is a very competent person IMHO who is doing his job as his superiors expect him to do. In fact, this is not about ANY individual liking or not liking Indians or Chinese. This is about policies and institutional philosophy of what is in the best interest of USA. I do think ther eis a bias against Indians and Chinese and I do think it is institutional. I also happen to think that individuals working at State Dept are generally quite competent and that none of these movements forwards backward are haphazard. I think they are very well orchestrated movements.

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Q, that was very well put. none of these movements are haphazard.

Gurus,

it's been a while since I got my notices for EAD, AP and 485. still don't see them on the website, is this still an issue with most feb filers and beyond?

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Originally Posted by mbasense

Q, that was very well put. none of these movements are haphazard.

Gurus,

it's been a while since I got my notices for EAD, AP and 485. still don't see them on the website, is this still an issue with most feb filers and beyond?

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TSC filers are facing this problem. NSC filers are able to track cases.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I have to contradict your misguided post. I am from the DC area too BTW.

1. The dates will surely move and rest at around Q1-Q2 2008 as Q and other gurus have always predicted. Kudos to them. The memo only temporarily halts the GC issuance and they will start again latest by July.

2. I do have to take your comment with the entire salt container. If the government hated the Indians and the Chinese, why are they giving away so many GCs in EB1C? Why did they move the dates so rapidly for EB2? I very well can imagine that there are plenty of racially influenced people working in that department just like at any place in the society, but they don't seem to have much influence over how the dates are moved and how GCs are given. We all need to be thankful to CO for moving the dates so much especially now that he has to retrogress almost 3 years.

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Sportsfan33 thank you for your comments. Just small clarification though I never used the word "hate". Please go back and read my post carefully. I never also never said that people in DOS are incompetant. All that I am saying is that US government is not very inclined in giving GC to Indians and Chinese so fast. Remember the irish clause that suddenly came up in the immigration. Will there be such clause for I&C. I don't think so. The lobbying that went into getting that that clause is just unprecedented.

Again just re-iterate the fact that some people feel are misguided, I never used the word hate for I believe it is a very strong word. I never used the word dislike too. What we have is law on our side and that is why i said we will get it sooner or later. Just think from the govt perspective we are not good voting block that they can take advantage of, we are very competitive and we are changing the demography of this nation.

Sportsfan33 please do not take so much salt as it is not good for health!!!! Good luck and all the best.

Somebody asked this question before I guess, I am not sure. Why doesn't CO make it 'U' instead of 15-Aug-2007? I mean that is what they are saying right? No Visas available.
Or Is it that they cannot modify the published VB and somehow expect some visa availability in first 7-8 days of April to publish May's VB with PD 15-Aug-2007.

I am totally confused.

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Originally Posted by mysati

I am not an expert but just my 2 cents...don't mean to invoke fear or anxiety in anyone.

I think, this FY's resting point maybe anywhere between Q4, '07 and Q1, '08, based on the spillover available. But next FY, I think the spillover may start only late like previous years.

If you think about it, this year may not be a QSP, in its true sense. When EB2-I/C dates moved forward between Oct-Mar, all the new applications that were received during the period were treated as current like any other category that is current (EB1,EB2-ROW) and if they cleared the scrutiny got allocated a visa number immediately like any other current category. They realized, by now, EB2-I/C has overshot the numbers for the year and are retrogressing. At this point only, they are taking the allocation for the category truly into consideration.

Now that the pipeline is built and the category may not be current anytime sooner, the same process of MSP or QSP may not occur until such time it becomes current again, if at all.

This is just my thought process...feel free to tear it apart.

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what you posted is definitely the worst case scenario. I do think we will see some minor movement in Q1 FY 2013.

Sportsfan - I agree with everything you said except the "2009 filers getting greened before March 2013" bit. Depending on the amount of demand destruction, we could see all of 2009 cleared by SEPT 2013. I doubt all of 2009 will get cleared anyway but it will definitely not happen in March.

The alternative to what has happened was a very controlled forward movement in the Cut Off Dates. Dates probably wouldn't have to move beyond the end of 2008 and retrogression would have been milder.

Ultimately, the visas would still have been used for the year, with the very outside possibility of a small amount of spillover falling to EB3 if USCIS didn't do their job.

The downside for DOS would be no great Inventory build up and the need to keep repeating the process every year, with the uncertainties associated with it.

The considerable downside for the applicants would be that PD2009 - May 2010 filers (at the very least) would still be waiting to file I-485. No possibility of AC21, no AP and no EAD for derivatives, more children aged out etc etc.

Large COD movement always meant a large retrogression because the number of visas available in FY2012 was a semi-fixed amount which could never cover approval of all filings.

Which cake did people want?

I have this question rising in my mind more out frustration and that is

Is there a better strategy of moving dates than what DOS and USCIS follow right now?

I mean in 2007, they made everyone current and then retrogressed the dates severely. That move did help lot of people to get their EAD but there were many more who were unlucky and had to wait very long. This year, they did the same thing and advanced dates very rapidly. Again, good for many people and there will be many unlucky ones who will be waiting for long time again.

If they keep following the same strategy, they will advance the dates rapidly again when they hit May 1, 2010 and experience a demand cliff in future and then obviously retrogress the dates severely.

Shouldn't the USCIS and DOS have any better way of knowing the demand than keep going through this Rapid Forward Movement followed by Severe Retrogression cycle?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The alternative to what has happened was a very controlled forward movement in the Cut Off Dates. Dates probably wouldn't have to move beyond the end of 2008 and retrogression would have been milder.

Ultimately, the visas would still have been used for the year, with the very outside possibility of a small amount of spillover falling to EB3 if USCIS didn't do their job.

The downside for DOS would be no great Inventory build up and the need to keep repeating the process every year, with the uncertainties associated with it.

The considerable downside for the applicants would be that PD2009 - May 2010 filers (at the very least) would still be waiting to file I-485. No possibility of AC21, no AP and no EAD for derivatives, more children aged out etc etc.

Large COD movement always meant a large retrogression because the number of visas available in FY2012 was a semi-fixed amount which could never cover approval of all filings.

Which cake did people want?

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Great post Spec!

Can you please conduct some tranining sessions(online) on 'articulation skills' for people like me? :)

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

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Originally Posted by pdfeb09

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

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the rule your friend is referring to is correct. You have to have applied 366 days before your H1B expires. I don't see any way of staying in the country once his H1B expires. Now if he wants to keep working for this company (and if his company wants him), they might have to literally go the extra mile.

Is it a multi-national company and whats his role ? He could potentially transfer to another office overseas (or in India) and return after a year with a brand new H1 or L1. If he comes as a L1, he doesn't need to go through the labor anyway. Ofcourse this doesn't help him stay in the country.

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Originally Posted by pdfeb09

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

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He is corect that, pending or approved, the PERM must have been submitted and received at least 365 days prior to the date the extension takes effect to qualify for a 1 year extension. The approval of the PERM doesn't confer any advantage at all, unlike the I-140.

The best option IMO if the I-140 is not approved in time is to leave the USA and work remotely until the I-140 is approved (preferably with PP).

Alternatively, he could leave the USA for the number of days to make up to 365 days. In that case, he could claim back the days spent outside the USA and the 1 year extension together. It depends how many days short he is. I suspect that may be too long from the tone of your post.

Other options would be to a COS to L1A (with a 7 year limit), but that is a fairly unlikely scenario.

If the spouse is also on H1B, then COS to H4 and stopping working is an option.

Ultimately it is either leave the USA or change status. I don't like the B1/2 or F1 options - that is gaming the system IMO. There is always the possibility of denial, leaving him out of status and accumulating unlawful presence.

It's a tough place to be.

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Originally Posted by pdfeb09

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

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I-140 premium takes 2 to 3 weeks. So as soon as his Labor is approved he should file premium I-140 and then extend his H1. If labor approval happens after Jul/Aug he will have to remain outside of USA until his labor is approved; I-140 approved and extension filed.

Sportsfan, I agree with what you said. And I am anticipating that next year too they will follow a MSP or QSP just to clear out as many cases as possible to avoid renewing EADs and APs for free :). Bottom line as you said is that with so much work load on them already, I am sure they will not be foolish to spend time on renewing EADs for free which is an easily avoidable extra work. And without MSP or QSP, I don't see how they will be able to give out GCs for so many by this time next year. Let us wait and watch.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

In that case, the USCIS is looking to renew a few thousand EAD and AP applications for free, and they will not like it. they are constrained as it is with manpower. I am sure there is some logic behind the movement as Q himself has explained. Until I see them renewing EAD/AP without any revenue, I will continue believing they can clear most of "pre-adjudicated" applications until next March. Otherwise, I have to say that CO overplayed his hand too much and burned USCIS in the process, which is pretty stupid because even without much transparent data, the gurus here had been predicting Q1-2008 as the cut off for green card for FY 2012.

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Spec
Having been started the process of PR , is it possible for the individual to convert to B1/F1 which are non-dual intent category?

CO hinted pretty heavily in a statement some time ago that USCIS were squealing about the possibility of having to renew EAD/AP for free. CO was more concerned, rightly so at the time, about USCIS capacity to approve enough cases in time. I believe that is, in part, why USCIS started approving EB2-IC cases so quickly and in the numbers they have. Essentially, they were told to "put up or shut up".

Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.

I thought they are moving quarterly this year, and only 2 quarters quota was utilized so far. Am I wrong?

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Originally Posted by druvraj

If I understand the post, it effectively means no forward movement till October visa bulletin. Enjoy the summer and wait for the fall.

Someone in the DOS that I know very closely (I am from the DC area) vaguely hinted to me over lunch that govt does not particularly like giving GCs to Indians and Chinese so fast. They do believe that it is in their interest to keep them hanging. Please take it with a pinch of salt. It is just a test of our patience. They cannot deny it they can just delay it. Some would argue that Justice delayed is Justice Denied. Do not think that way and enjoy the summer with family and friends. We will all get it starting Oct or worst case next June.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec
Having been started the process of PR , is it possible for the individual to convert to B1/F1 which are non-dual intent category?

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Kanmani,

I only mentioned it for sake of completeness. I don't think it is a viable solution.

I have seen cases of COS being approved in various forums, but clearly they are then "landlocked", because they will have a very difficult time getting a Visa stamped to return because of the potential immigrant intent. Having said that, the filing of PERM for a person doesn't meet that threshold. What they would have difficulty with, is proving they have a foreign residence they have no intent of abandoning and that they intend to return at the end of visa period or upon completion of their studies as appropriate.

My 2c.

Thanks Spec.
I heard of situations where parents with previously stamped visitor visas were denied admissions at port of entry after their PR application is filed . I have not seen real time experiences though.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

TSC filers are facing this problem. NSC filers are able to track cases.

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thanks suninphx

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Originally Posted by feedmyback

Sportsfan, I agree with what you said. And I am anticipating that next year too they will follow a MSP or QSP just to clear out as many cases as possible to avoid renewing EADs and APs for free :). Bottom line as you said is that with so much work load on them already, I am sure they will not be foolish to spend time on renewing EADs for free which is an easily avoidable extra work. And without MSP or QSP, I don't see how they will be able to give out GCs for so many by this time next year. Let us wait and watch.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

CO hinted pretty heavily in a statement some time ago that USCIS were squealing about the possibility of having to renew EAD/AP for free. CO was more concerned, rightly so at the time, about USCIS capacity to approve enough cases in time. I believe that is, in part, why USCIS started approving EB2-IC cases so quickly and in the numbers they have. Essentially, they were told to "put up or shut up".

Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.

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Obviously having to process EADs for free may be the stick that they need to process work quickly. But its not the only constraint. Numbers and more important laws play a major role here. :)