EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec just to illustrate your point you mean the EB3PD date must be current in EB2. Right?

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Q,

Correct.

Until it is, the interfiling request will just sit in the file.

In practical terms, it means that all interfiling requests received after May 2012 with a PD of September 2004 or later are invisible to the Demand Data, since a visa could never be requested under EB2.

Those with a PD before September 2004 won't appear either, since when adjudicated, a visa is immediately available.

I doubt very much whether they appear in the USCIS Inventory as EB2 either.

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

One question that need answer is: time it takes from the point EB3I file is initiated and can be ported and visa can be assigned. If that time is >3 months then porting should be very less this year.

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Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

One question that need answer is: time it takes from the point EB3I file is initiated and can be ported and visa can be assigned. If that time is >3 months then porting should be very less this year.

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For any case that already has an I-485 on file, the process should be relatively quick, excepting any that have an RFE on the I-485 raised.

That category covers most people interfiling with a PD up to July 2007.

Only those with a PD beyond July 2007 who have interfiled since May 2012 will need to file an I-485 for the first time. Technically, they need an existing I-485 to interfile at all, since interfiling is changing the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2. Anything else is just retention of the PD from an approved I-140 under EB3 for a new I-140 under EB2.

Logistically, for the earlier PDs, it should take no longer to approve the case and request a visa than for any of the existing pre-adjudicated cases.

It may come down more to the luck of the draw as to who gets pulled from the store room first.

In order to ensure earlier PDs are approved first, it is quite possible that CO will limit the initial movement of EB2-I Cut Off Dates and only move it further in subsequent VBs.

We just don't know.

It definitely is alarming if EB3I before 2004 are consuming regular quota of EB2I by means of porting. So I assume when the dates will be progressed all the Eb3I porting/interfiling waiting on file (as per Spec's finding that interfiling only happens when dates are current) will consume a lot of visas, and we don't know the count of them. They could well be consuming a lot of visas considering 2004 and beyond are taking regular quota quite comfortably.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

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It's not a new finding.

It is just some confirmation of something I (and Kanmani) have been trying to say all along (based on what the USCIS AFM says).

Based on this confirmation, are you still on with your earlier prediction of EB2 date movements by fy2013.

Or this will change your prediction by some margins?

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Based on this confirmation, are you still on with your earlier prediction of EB2 date movements by fy2013.

Or this will change your prediction by some margins?

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No.

I've always worked on this assumption.

I still can't settle on what I think the right figure is for Porting / PD Year / Month so there might be some variation there.

I am more concerned that I used a fairly optimistic number for EB1 and it might exceed that.

Worst to Best case at the moment for me is 11 - 18k total visas available to EB2-I. That's a wide margin, but that reflects the uncertainty. There's also an uncertainty about how many of those would be used by porting cases and I can't quantify that.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

No.

I've always worked on this assumption.

I still can't settle on what I think the right figure is for Porting / PD Year / Month so there might be some variation there.

I am more concerned that I used a fairly optimistic number for EB1 and it might exceed that.

Worst to Best case at the moment for me is 11 - 18k total visas available to EB2-I. That's a wide margin, but that reflects the uncertainty. There's also an uncertainty about how many of those would be used by porting cases and I can't quantify that.

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Spec, can you give us a worst to best case for the # of porting cases and the corresponding (predicted) date movements?

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

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I respectfully disagree.

The vast majority of the increase before 2008 has been caused by continued pre-adjudication of new 2007 PD cases submitted last year.

In the PD period 2004 - 2006 the increase in figures looks like this (for the period when the years have been shown separately):

--------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006
January --- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50
February --- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50
March ----- 25 ---- 25 ---- 50
April ----- 75 --- 175 --- 150

That just looks like continued pre-adjudication of cases received before dates retrogressed.

The April figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt, because the whole EB2-I Demand Data for April looked decidedly odd.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

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Still porting with Eb3I PD later than Sep 2004 is not part of demand data that has happened between Mar 2012 till now. Those cases will be added to demand data when dates will progress for Eb2I.

Thanks everyone.
Specs:The way you have predicted range of spillover from 11k to 16k, wondering can u predict this in terms of priority date movement say dec 07 to apr 08?

A warm welcome to MATT2012, presumably the same user as on Trackitt.

I've followed your posts with interest.

Yes, thanks.. I knew for sometime I had to come here...I am not knowledgeable as many here..will learn and contribute as much as I can...

Welcome Matt. I also follow your posts closely.

Thank you Spec for the explanation. Now can you explain why EB3I demand have gone down by 2500 in 4 months period.
Since max available approved numbers will be 234*4 (EB3) + 234*4 (EB3 ported to EB2 before Sep 2004) = 1872
628 number is a big number for 4 months. (I'm not considering April'13 demand data after FBs numbers .)

Demand data till Jan 1 2007

-----Nov 2012-----March 2013
EB3----43500------41000 = 2500 reduction

EB2---- 1100------ 1650 = 550 addition

My assumption:

I know..I always bring back porting number prediction...but hear me out.

What previous 5 months are showing that with cutoff date of Sep 2004, all numbers are getting consumed by porters of 2003 and Sep 2004. That means 233*5 = 1165 ported between May12 and March13 for 21 months period.( May 12 after Visa NA)

Now from Oct 2004 to Dec 2007 we have 39 months, so with same rate porting it will take us to 2164.(1165*39/21= 2164) But IMHO it should be higher because 2003 should not have many porters as compare to 2005, 2006, 2007.

If cutoff date will remain at Sep 2004 in June' 13 VB.

At that time (233*9) = 2097 will be consumed by 2003,2004 porters. Then corresponding number of porting will take us to 3894 (2097*39/21 = 3894). Again this should be higher as assumed above IMHO.

Now if we add everything:
7400 (demand data--assuming all pending 485 are preadjudicated as of March 13) + 3894 = 11294 spillover will be required to reach Jan 1 2008.

11294 + 5086 (porting excluded--may be additional 400) = 16380 spillover will be required to reach May 1 2008. (I hope it reaches there...yay)

Spec........FY13 is almost half-finished....as many will tell you here ....you are the best.....Can you provide your predictions on porting numbers? Man...I can not wait till July VB.

I am new here, but I do love the energy and enthusiasm.

Before I blog anything, my sincere Thanks to all here, who by their commitment is trying to help all of us make good decisions in their respective immigration journey!!

As Spec and all others, I am trying to crack the big nut - porting. The calculation below is based on porting trends from 2003 and 2004 EB3I and applying the similar percentage to rest of the years. The expected porting for rest of this fiscal is what I am trying to narrow down. In the last line I am assuming 80% of this year portings will be approved.

2003 -2004-------- 1450
2005---------------- 1184
2006---------------- 1439
2007---------------- 1606
2008 Fist Quarter---400
Total------ 6079
80% This year 4863

My numbers may not be correct, but together we should be able to make a range.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Thank you Spec for the explanation. Now can you explain why EB3I demand have gone down by 2500 in 4 months period.
Since max available approved numbers will be 234*4 (EB3) + 234*4 (EB3 ported to EB2 before Sep 2004) = 1872
628 number is a big number for 4 months. (I'm not considering April'13 demand data after FBs numbers .)

Demand data till Jan 1 2007

-----Nov 2012-----March 2013
EB3----43500------41000 = 2500 reduction

EB2---- 1100------ 1650 = 550 addition

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erik,

I agree that reductions in the EB3-I demand could be a potential fly in the ointment to the view I have.

Having said that, for periods that are not current in EB2-I (2005-2006 in the table below), the reductions for EB3-I are quite low (and fairly similar to the increases seen in EB2-I).

------------- 2003 --- 2004 --- 2005 --- 2006
November ---- (50) --- (50) --- (75) --- (50)
December --- (175) -- (150) --- (75) -- (150)
January ---- (150) -- (275) --- (50) ----(75)
February ---- (75) ---- 25 ---- (25) --- (25)
March ------ (175) -- (125) --- (50) --- (50)
April ------ (175) -- (125) --- (50) --- (25)


Again, I don't think this indicates anything that could not be consistent with interfiling cases received before dates retrogressed finally becoming pre-adjudicated. Those with a PD before September 2004 can, of course, be approved under EB2-I.

An interesting article on EB5 about a non-Chinese investor and the reasons they went into the program.

What struck me in the article was the graphic which says EB5 visa usage in October - January was 3,073.

The DHS 2012 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics has been published.

A few quick interesting facts from looking at the tables.

EB1 Primary Usage By Sub-Category

EB1A - 21.91%
EB1B - 20.84%
EB1C - 57.25%

Total Approvals Per Primary

EB1 - 2.41
EB2 - 2.06
EB3 - 2.22
EB4 - 1.61
EB5 - 2.87

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

An interesting article on EB5 about a non-Chinese investor and the reasons they went into the program.

What struck me in the article was the graphic which says EB5 visa usage in October - January was 3,073.

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That's what i zoned in too. Annualizing it, we have 700 visas falling up to EB1 (1,000 according to the article).

The other thing that struck me was the fricking inefficiency of this system. Take the family profiled, the Dekkers. They have invested in a farm worth more than $500k (because that's the bank loaned them using the property as collateral) that employs 12 people in a rural area, and that doesn't qualify them for the EB5. Instead, they are forced to invest $500k in another project at a transaction cost of $84k. A 17% transaction cost on an investment that makes maybe a 1 to 3% return. I hate middlemen.

interesting TSC I-485 Employment based processing time is now 4 months, i think in last couple of years this is the first time it is 4 months. this will effect number of approvals(more) in next 6 months.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Quote:

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Originally Posted by openaccount

interesting TSC I-485 Employment based processing time is now 4 months, i think in last couple of years this is the first time it is 4 months. this will effect number of approvals(more) in next 6 months.

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

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openaccount,

Thanks for the heads up.

For TSC, weren't all the I-140 processing times at 4 months before? I don't keep any historical records.

They are now all at September 27, 2012.

I know NSC always had I-140 processing times outside the 4 months target.

The other point to note is that the data is as at January 31, 2013 so the I-485 processing improvement has been in effect for nearly 2 months now.

Finally what will be the worst and best possible PD movement by Fy13? I see a lot of analysis lately based on porting/spillover count but not on PD.

SPEC/Matt/all guru: please predict.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For TSC, weren't all the I-140 processing times at 4 months before? I don't keep any historical records.

They are now all at September 27, 2012.

I know NSC always had I-140 processing times outside the 4 months target.

The other point to note is that the data is as at January 31, 2013 so the I-485 processing improvement has been in effect for nearly 2 months now.

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Spec,

yes you are correct i did not notice, TSC I-140 processing time was 4 months as of Dec31 2012 below is link.

https://www.visapro.com/Texas-Service-Center.asp

I will wait for one more demand data, to observe the trends. So sometime in the next two weeks. if current trends are any indicator it could very well stop between March and June 2008 time frame. This is where I am now. EB2 ROW(including M and P) range is predictable. EB5 is getting clearer. EB4 range is under control. So what is left open is EB1.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

I will wait for one more demand data, to observe the trends. So sometime in the next two weeks. if current trends are any indicator it could very well stop between March and June 2008 time frame. This is where I am now. EB2 ROW(including M and P) range is predictable. EB5 is getting clearer. EB4 range is under control. So what is left open is EB1.

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Thanks and hope next demand data is favorable.

I am copying an offline conversation with Spec,My question was about the spike in EB5 and possible reasons, and Spec answer is as follows..

Personally, I don't see it as a spike - rather a natural progression based on the increasing number of I-526 receipts.

The processing time for an I-526 is about a year, so we are probably only seeing the effects from receipts in about March 2012.

83% of EB5 cases are Consular Processed, which rises to 93% for Chinese cases that make up the majority of EB5 approvals. I don't think Concurrent filing of I-526 / I-485 is allowed.

To give you an idea of the increase in the number of I-526 receipts over time, here are the averages per FY for data I have.

FY2010 - 163 / month
FY2011 - 317 / month
FY2012 - 503 / month
FY2013 - 613 / month to date

The backlog of cases to be adjudicated has been rising as well.

At the end of
FY2010 it was 1,125
FY2011 - 3,347
FY2012 - 5,018
FY2013 - 6,075 in the last figures published

Barring major hiccups in the EB5 system (there are a few problems currently) it is only a matter of time when EB5-China becomes retrogressed. It may not be this year, but I wouldn't bet against it for FY2014.

On a side note from me, EB5 processing is getting better, so backlogs can consume visas faster...

This is a classic example of mis use or mis interpretation. The family mentioned should have been given the GC based on their time, money and knowledge they invested in last 15 years, rather than giving a GC based on some ponzy investment. They actually invested about quarter million and 15 years of their time and grew the business to employ 15.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

An interesting article on EB5 about a non-Chinese investor and the reasons they went into the program.

What struck me in the article was the graphic which says EB5 visa usage in October - January was 3,073.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by GCKnowHow

This is a classic example of mis use or mis interpretation. The family mentioned should have been given the GC based on their time, money and knowledge they invested in last 15 years, rather than giving a GC based on some ponzy investment. They actually invested about quarter million and 15 years of their time and grew the business to employ 15.

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GCKnowHow,

I feel the same as you, if I am totally honest.

Unfortunately, they could have had no expectations about getting it based on the farm business. They came as E2, knowing there was no direct route to a GC.

Nonetheless, they worked harder and probably created more real direct new jobs through growing the farm business than the EB5 project. Plus it was an investment over a long period that surely is the sort of immigrant the USA should desire.

The E2 business was a lot more substantial than the normal pool cleaning company in Florida or franchise business that many E2 choose.

The difficulty would be creating something that would accommodate this sort of case, yet not be abused by people seeing it as a way to get a GC by investing half the lowest amount possible under EB5.

A slight hint for the reason FB visas went unused in FY2012 is contained in the DHS U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2012 publication.

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The number of new family-sponsored preference LPRs decreased from 2011 to 2012 because fewer individuals than expected appeared for scheduled interviews at US consular posts during the month of September.

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I'm not sure that is the entire reason.

At the end of
FY2010 it was 1,125
FY2011 - 3,347
FY2012 - 5,018
FY2013 - 6,075 in the last figures published

Hi Spec,

Where did you find the above EB5 backlog data?

Also according to the report there was 698 unused visas in EB in FY2011. However I remember there was announcement in Sep 2011 during mid Sep 2011, that visas have been exhausted for the FY 2011. Is it possible those visas were also wasted because of Consular posts not using them?

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

I am new here, but I do love the energy and enthusiasm.

Before I blog anything, my sincere Thanks to all here, who by their commitment is trying to help all of us make good decisions in their respective immigration journey!!

As Spec and all others, I am trying to crack the big nut - porting. The calculation below is based on porting trends from 2003 and 2004 EB3I and applying the similar percentage to rest of the years. The expected porting for rest of this fiscal is what I am trying to narrow down. In the last line I am assuming 80% of this year portings will be approved.

2003 -2004-------- 1450
2005---------------- 1184
2006---------------- 1439
2007---------------- 1606
2008 Fist Quarter---400
Total------ 6079
80% This year 4863

My numbers may not be correct, but together we should be able to make a range.

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Matt,

I'll preface this post by repeating what I have said before.

With the information available to us, it is not really possible to calculate porting. Even CO, with far more information is unable to do so.

Still, here's another approach to consider.

To date, PDs prior to September 2004 have been able to use the 250 visas / month that have been available. The approvals (based on Trackitt) have almost exclusively been from 2003 and 2004.

That would give a porting rate of 150 cases / PD year / month.

If the porting rate / PD year / month were similar for dates beyond August 2004, considering 13 months will have elapsed by July 2013, then there would be 150 * 13 = 1,950 cases per PD year.

2004 still has 4 months that has not been Current.
2007 can be considered to only have 6 months when people might reasonably have an existing I-485 to interfile.
2005 and 2006 are full years.

Potential porting numbers waiting to become Current by July 2013 could then be as high as (0.33 + 1 + 1 + 0.5) = 2.83 * 1,950 = ~ 5,500 cases who already have an I-485 with a PD of Sept 2004 to July 2007.

By July 2013, pre September 2004 cases could have used at least 2,250 approvals.

That is in addition to any numbers already existing in the Demand Data.

I have no thoughts on the % that might be approved within the July-September time frame.

In addition, there will be cases (mainly beyond July 2007) where no I-485 currently exists, but these new cases would have little to no chance of being approved within FY2013 IMO.

I hope that may be useful to you and insert your own assumptions, but please feel free to consider it a pile of stinking doo-doo as well. I certainly won't feel offended if you do.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Also according to the report there was 698 unused visas in EB in FY2011. However I remember there was announcement in Sep 2011 during mid Sep 2011, that visas have been exhausted for the FY 2011. Is it possible those visas were also wasted because of Consular posts not using them?

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gc_soon,

I think that is the most likely explanation.

CO pre-allocates the visas to the Consulates. He has to take account of numbers remaining and the historical return rate from Consulates, so it is not an exact science. In the last month, he probably has to be quite conservative in order to guard against exceeding the EB allocation.

Higher returns than assumed would cause an under-usage of the visas, with no mechanism to re-allocate them in the FY.

Thanks I really appreciate it, I knew the difficulties in crunching the porting number, without any base data. I myself tried to use three different approaches. What I was looking for was a different perspective. For 2007 existing EB3I, I considered 30% of full year. Also gave the same weightage as you for the last 4 months of 2004. 2008 I gave 25% of 2007, as I am projecting until March.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

I'll preface this post by repeating what I have said before.

With the information available to us, it is not really possible to calculate porting. Even CO, with far more information is unable to do so.

Still, here's another approach to consider.

To date, PDs prior to September 2004 have been able to use the 250 visas / month that have been available. The approvals (based on Trackitt) have almost exclusively been from 2003 and 2004.

That would give a porting rate of 150 cases / PD year / month.

If the porting rate / PD year / month were similar for dates beyond August 2004, considering 13 months will have elapsed by July 2013, then there would be 150 * 13 = 1,950 cases per PD year.

2004 still has 4 months that has not been Current.
2007 can be considered to only have 6 months when people might reasonably have an existing I-485 to interfile.
2005 and 2006 are full years.

Potential porting numbers waiting to become Current by July 2013 could then be as high as (0.33 + 1 + 1 + 0.5) = 2.83 * 1,950 = ~ 5,500 cases who already have an I-485 with a PD of Sept 2004 to July 2007.

By July 2013, pre September 2004 cases could have used at least 2,250 approvals.

That is in addition to any numbers already existing in the Demand Data.

I have no thoughts on the % that might be approved within the July-September time frame.

In addition, there will be cases (mainly beyond July 2007) where no I-485 currently exists, but these new cases would have little to no chance of being approved within FY2013 IMO.

I hope that may be useful to you and insert your own assumptions, but please feel free to consider it a pile of stinking doo-doo as well. I certainly won't feel offended if you do.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Thanks I really appreciate it, I knew the difficulties in crunching the porting number, without any base data. I myself tried to use three different approaches. What I was looking for was a different perspective. For 2007 existing EB3I, I considered 30% of full year. Also gave the same weightage as you for the last 4 months of 2004. 2008 I gave 25% of 2007, as I am projecting until March.

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Matt,

I'm glad there was something useful in the post.

As I tried to allude to in it, any case upgrading with a PD in the second half of 2007 or later will need to file an I-485 for the first time, since an EB3 has never had the chance to do so. Given the processing time, I doubt many will be ready to approve before the end of the FY, so I am discounting those as far as FY2013 numbers go. I'm not convinced that the first movement by CO will be into 2008 anyway.

Those able to file in FY2013 would need to accounted for in any future FY2014 porting calculation.

Due to new I-485 from 2007 and 2008, I came up with the 80% approval rate. I was looking at the pattern of visa dates movement in 2008, after the July 2007 fiasco. The controller kind of did similar to what he is doing now. I am also thinking multistep a halt between 2005/2006. A halt around July/August 2007 and finally into 2008. Not sure whether it will be two step or three step.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

I'm glad there was something useful in the post.

As I tried to allude to in it, any case upgrading with a PD in the second half of 2007 or later will need to file an I-485 for the first time, since an EB3 has never had the chance to do so. Given the processing time, I doubt many will be ready to approve before the end of the FY, so I am discounting those as far as FY2013 numbers go. I'm not convinced that the first movement by CO will be into 2008 anyway.

Those able to file in FY2013 would need to accounted for in any future FY2014 porting calculation.

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