EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by suninphx

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage

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suninphx,

Here's the numbers to date:

Oct-12 --- 29 (when all PD had to be prior to 2012)
Nov-12 -- 143
Dec-12 --- 59
Jan-13 --- 33
Feb-13 --- 25
Mar-13 ---- 9

Total --- 298 - Average - 50

If we take the period June 2012 - Feb 2013, then there have been 478 cases added to Trackitt. Over 9 months, that is an average of 53, so the 50/month average is about right.

The problem is that 4 months from FY2012 has been pushed into FY2013 so that there is likely to be 16 months of approvals in FY2013 (i.e. 16 * 50 = 800 rather than 12 * 50 = 600).

If sequestration hits DOL then that might ameliorate the effect, but in previous years their is a considerable tail past a USCIS RD of March that gets approved in the FY. With the current quicker processing times by USCIS, even a DOL slowdown might be countered.

I agree we need to see what the monthly number settles down to for the rest of FY2013 - unfortunately that information won't be clear for months.

3 month retro should equal 25% annual demand and so when the gates open - you should see 100% jump in over 3 months e.g. Oct-Dec.
Whereas we are only seeing 20% jump.

Agree about slow to add. But I really don't think that it would every catch up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.

My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

Here's the numbers to date:

Oct-12 --- 29 (when all PD had to be prior to 2012)
Nov-12 -- 143
Dec-12 --- 59
Jan-13 --- 33
Feb-13 --- 25
Mar-13 ---- 9

Total --- 298 - Average - 50

If we take the period June 2012 - Feb 2013, then there have been 478 cases added to Trackitt. Over 9 months, that is an average of 53, so the 50/month average is about right.

The problem is that 4 months from FY2012 has been pushed into FY2013 so that there is likely to be 16 months of approvals in FY2013 (i.e. 16 * 50 = 800 rather than 12 * 50 = 600).

If sequestration hits DOL then that might ameliorate the effect, but in previous years their is a considerable tail past a USCIS RD of March that gets approved in the FY. With the current quicker processing times by USCIS, even a DOL slowdown might be countered.

I agree we need to see what the monthly number settles down to for the rest of FY2013 - unfortunately that information won't be clear for months.

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Spectator,

I did not bring the PD at all in the mix to keep the filter simple. I am just running a filter based on RD. So my logic is - if avarage is indeed ~50/month then we should see ~400 cases (50* 8 months - that would include 3 retro months from previous FY)...we see ~250-275 cases currently ..which are below average..thats all

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

3 month retro should equal 25% annual demand and so when the gates open - you should see 100% jump in over 3 months e.g. Oct-Dec.
Whereas we are only seeing 20% jump.

Agree about slow to add. But I really don't think that it would every catch up.

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so you agree to my logic or not...not very clear to me from your reply :)

Yes. I think so.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

so you agree to my logic or not...not very clear to me from your reply :)

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spectator,

I did not bring the PD at all in the mix to keep the filter simple. I am just running a filter based on RD. So my logic is - if avarage is indeed ~50/month then we should see ~400 cases (50* 8 months - that would include 3 retro months from previous FY)...we see ~250-275 cases currently ..which are below average..thats all

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I am not bringing PD into the equation either, only USCIS Receipt Date for the I-485.

As I've pointed out, there are the number expected when you consider that some people brought things forward and submitted their I-485 in June 2012, knowing dates would be retrogressed until the new FY.

If you are looking at October to February, you are ignoring the fact that June-September 2012 had 191 receipts, of which 174 were in June 2012, just before dates retrogressed. Therefore you wouldn't expect to see 8 months worth received by USCIS in the period October-February.

That is why I used the June 2012 to February 2013 range, since it captures all the additional cases and averages 53 / month. Both January and February don't even look complete yet, so that figure is likely to rise.

In different terms:

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*4 = 200 for June-September. There were actually 191.

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*5 = 250 for October-February. There are actually 289 to date.

@ 50 / month we would expect 50*9 = 450 for June-February. There are actually 480 to date.

Maybe we just agree to disagree.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Maybe we just agree to disagree.

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Probably ...

thanks for additional prespective and numbers though..

I will keep watching how trackitt numbers build up...

Gurus, My Priority date is 12/14/2007 EB2 India any estimates getting current?
thanks in advance

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JosephM

Gurus, My Priority date is 12/14/2007 EB2 India any estimates getting current?
thanks in advance

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Sep 2013 latest.

No action in 2 and half days. Looks like everyone had a great St Patrick's Day :)

Vizcard,
When do you expect Aug 15, 2008 PD to become current?? What are chances by sep2013- 50%, 70%, 99%?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

No action in 2 and half days. Looks like everyone had a great St Patrick's Day :)

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Do we have any idea how EB1 is tracking YTD in terms of I-140 approvals? Wouldnt that give us an idea of their usage?

Regards
Nat

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Do we have any idea how EB1 is tracking YTD in terms of I-140 approvals? Wouldnt that give us an idea of their usage?

Regards
Nat

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Nat,

Such data would be very useful if it was published.

I haven't seen anything published since July 2011.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Vizcard,
When do you expect Aug 15, 2008 PD to become current?? What are chances by sep2013- 50%, 70%, 99%?

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I'd say 50% or worse for Sep 2013. My PD is Aug 20, 2008 so im literally in the same window as you (Aug 15-22). Based on Spec and Qs latest calculations, we will be on the outside looking in. We just have to wait till the July VB to get more visibility. Good luck to both of us.

PS: this is assuming no relief from CIR.

And my PD April 30 2008. What are my chances....gurus....percentage wise.? I will be very happy if I can atleast apply 485 this year.

Vizcard,

Thanks for the reply and feedback. Yes I know that we are in oneboat and thats why was curious to your guru input. Thanks again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I'd say 50% or worse for Sep 2013. My PD is Aug 20, 2008 so im literally in the same window as you (Aug 15-22). Based on Spec and Qs latest calculations, we will be on the outside looking in. We just have to wait till the July VB to get more visibility. Good luck to both of us.

PS: this is assuming no relief from CIR.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Vizcard,

Thanks for the reply and feedback. Yes I know that we are in oneboat and thats why was curious to your guru input. Thanks again.

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Do not confuse me for a guru. :) Q, Spec and a couple of other bring the goods. I'm just using their analysis to provide my perspective.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

And my PD April 30 2008. What are my chances....gurus....percentage wise.? I will be very happy if I can atleast apply 485 this year.

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I assume you are EB2I/C. You should be able to apply. Whether or not it gets approved before the dates retrogress is another matter. At least you'll have EAD.

For all others, please refer to the first page for the detailed analysis by Q and Spec and draw your own conclusions.

vizcard,

Don't be so modest.

I second that!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

Don't be so modest.

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Gurus, What could be the reason for EB3 India movement of 2 weeks in April VB, usually its moving a week every month. Should i expect this everymonth :)

Thanks

Simple answer - If the porting is more than 300 per month then it is quite possible that every month EB3 quota gets reduced by 600 (approx) which should be generally equivalent to 2 weeks.

Complex answer - The porting mentioned above should all come from retrogressed EB3 date+1 week then only the above statement is true. This porting is not all EB3 porting. This is the portion that causes movement. In fact there are 3 types of porting. A) porting that causes EB3 movement B) porting that causes EB2 retrogression or at least holds back EB2 dates C) porting that is latent and not visible today. e.g. an EB3I2009 porting to EB2I. So its A that I am talking about here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by snvlgopal

Gurus, What could be the reason for EB3 India movement of 2 weeks in April VB, usually its moving a week every month. Should i expect this everymonth :)

Thanks

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by snvlgopal

Gurus, What could be the reason for EB3 India movement of 2 weeks in April VB, usually its moving a week every month. Should i expect this everymonth :)

Thanks

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snvlgopal,

The other possibility is that CO has released the extra visas from Oct-Mar due to the increase in the EB3 limit to 45,188.

When 40k were available, the 7 % limit was 2,803 or 252 visas per month in Q1-Q3.

With 45.2k available, that rises to 3,163 and around 285 visas per month.

So April may have had 285 + (6*(285-252)) = 483 visas available rather than 252 to date (192% of what has been available).

In this case, it would be a one off instance of faster movement.

The other factor is that EB3-I Cut Off Dates are now starting to move into an area where people have already ported and the density may be starting to lower.

In that case, the faster movement would be more sustainable.

The USCIS Dashboard was updated with January 2013 figures yesterday evening.

It has been a very quiet week so far in all senses of the word.

There have been virtually no Trackitt approvals so far.

If we were a little closer to the end of March, I might put that down to running out of visas for the Quarter, but I do not think we are close to that situation.

On another note, I think CO has left a big move in EB3-ROW dates a little late - I expected a larger movement in the April VB.

As of March 7, 2013 EB3-ROW had 3.5k demand left. By the next DD in early April, that will have dropped to about 1.9k.

By the time the May VB can take effect, EB3-ROW demand will have been virtually exhausted. EB3-ROW appear to need at least 10k new applications to be approved to meet the number of visas available to them. Some new cases will have been submitted as a result of recent movements, but not that many.

Since it is going to take at least 3-4 months for new I-485 to be adjudicated, that is going to push the approvals into Q4 - exactly the same time as EB2-I spillover is likely to be released.

That is going to increase the reliance on USCIS being able to approve large numbers of cases in a short timespan.

I never like to be reliant on USCIS being efficient.

As a PS:- If CO was working on only 140k being available annually in his calculations for October thru March, then the number of visas available do appear very close to being used up. At 158k EB being available annually, they do not. We'll have to see what happens for the rest of the month.

I saw this post on Trackitt.

It pretty much confirms what we have said already - that the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 cannot take place until the PD is Current.

Quote:

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Today I got this email response from NCSCFollowup.NSC@uscis.dhs.gov:

Good afternoon,
USCIS records indicate that the Service is waiting for VISA availability.
Please note that if an applicant wishes to transfer their pending I-485 application to their 2nd preference approved I-140 petition, a request for conversion must be made in writing, but a visa must be available to transfer.
If you have already submitted a written transfer request, your request will be kept in the file. The transfer can take place once visas are available.
The National Customer Service Center’s toll free number is 1 800 375 5283 or you may access the CIS web site at www.uscis.gov should you have any further questions or need additional information.
Regards,
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
EX0357

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Spec just to illustrate your point you mean the EB3PD date must be current in EB2. Right?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I saw this post on Trackitt.

It pretty much confirms what we have said already - that the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 cannot take place until the PD is Current.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec just to illustrate your point you mean the EB3PD date must be current in EB2. Right?

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Q,

Correct.

Until it is, the interfiling request will just sit in the file.

In practical terms, it means that all interfiling requests received after May 2012 with a PD of September 2004 or later are invisible to the Demand Data, since a visa could never be requested under EB2.

Those with a PD before September 2004 won't appear either, since when adjudicated, a visa is immediately available.

I doubt very much whether they appear in the USCIS Inventory as EB2 either.

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

One question that need answer is: time it takes from the point EB3I file is initiated and can be ported and visa can be assigned. If that time is >3 months then porting should be very less this year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

One question that need answer is: time it takes from the point EB3I file is initiated and can be ported and visa can be assigned. If that time is >3 months then porting should be very less this year.

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For any case that already has an I-485 on file, the process should be relatively quick, excepting any that have an RFE on the I-485 raised.

That category covers most people interfiling with a PD up to July 2007.

Only those with a PD beyond July 2007 who have interfiled since May 2012 will need to file an I-485 for the first time. Technically, they need an existing I-485 to interfile at all, since interfiling is changing the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2. Anything else is just retention of the PD from an approved I-140 under EB3 for a new I-140 under EB2.

Logistically, for the earlier PDs, it should take no longer to approve the case and request a visa than for any of the existing pre-adjudicated cases.

It may come down more to the luck of the draw as to who gets pulled from the store room first.

In order to ensure earlier PDs are approved first, it is quite possible that CO will limit the initial movement of EB2-I Cut Off Dates and only move it further in subsequent VBs.

We just don't know.

It definitely is alarming if EB3I before 2004 are consuming regular quota of EB2I by means of porting. So I assume when the dates will be progressed all the Eb3I porting/interfiling waiting on file (as per Spec's finding that interfiling only happens when dates are current) will consume a lot of visas, and we don't know the count of them. They could well be consuming a lot of visas considering 2004 and beyond are taking regular quota quite comfortably.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Spec,
Based on your finding,
One thing is that porting until now (Mat 2012-Mar 2013) happended only from applicants in EB3I whose PD is before Sep 2004.Wow then they are still consuming >250 visas a month. Thats a lot of porting from less ppl (PD between 2002-2004).

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It's not a new finding.

It is just some confirmation of something I (and Kanmani) have been trying to say all along (based on what the USCIS AFM says).

Based on this confirmation, are you still on with your earlier prediction of EB2 date movements by fy2013.

Or this will change your prediction by some margins?

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Based on this confirmation, are you still on with your earlier prediction of EB2 date movements by fy2013.

Or this will change your prediction by some margins?

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No.

I've always worked on this assumption.

I still can't settle on what I think the right figure is for Porting / PD Year / Month so there might be some variation there.

I am more concerned that I used a fairly optimistic number for EB1 and it might exceed that.

Worst to Best case at the moment for me is 11 - 18k total visas available to EB2-I. That's a wide margin, but that reflects the uncertainty. There's also an uncertainty about how many of those would be used by porting cases and I can't quantify that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

No.

I've always worked on this assumption.

I still can't settle on what I think the right figure is for Porting / PD Year / Month so there might be some variation there.

I am more concerned that I used a fairly optimistic number for EB1 and it might exceed that.

Worst to Best case at the moment for me is 11 - 18k total visas available to EB2-I. That's a wide margin, but that reflects the uncertainty. There's also an uncertainty about how many of those would be used by porting cases and I can't quantify that.

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Spec, can you give us a worst to best case for the # of porting cases and the corresponding (predicted) date movements?

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

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I respectfully disagree.

The vast majority of the increase before 2008 has been caused by continued pre-adjudication of new 2007 PD cases submitted last year.

In the PD period 2004 - 2006 the increase in figures looks like this (for the period when the years have been shown separately):

--------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006
January --- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50
February --- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50
March ----- 25 ---- 25 ---- 50
April ----- 75 --- 175 --- 150

That just looks like continued pre-adjudication of cases received before dates retrogressed.

The April figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt, because the whole EB2-I Demand Data for April looked decidedly odd.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

That is how demand data has been increasing from past 6 months for PDs before 2008. (5400 to 7400). Those people have already applied their I-485 and have ported. In my opinion 80-90% of ported case before July 2007 have already applied their I-485 and are now part of demand data. But after July 2007, high percentage of ported numbers will not be part of demand data till dates are current. (60-70%). But sometimes I have seen on trackitt that after porting from EB3 to EB2, I-140 PD shows EB3 priority date (may be 10-20% of folks).

So I do not think many more new numbers are coming pre July 2007 as most of them are already part of demand data. From July 2007-June 2008.....porting may be higher and not part of demand data... I'm making an assumption of 1500 porters (in July 13) between July 2007-June 2008.

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Still porting with Eb3I PD later than Sep 2004 is not part of demand data that has happened between Mar 2012 till now. Those cases will be added to demand data when dates will progress for Eb2I.

Thanks everyone.
Specs:The way you have predicted range of spillover from 11k to 16k, wondering can u predict this in terms of priority date movement say dec 07 to apr 08?

A warm welcome to MATT2012, presumably the same user as on Trackitt.

I've followed your posts with interest.

Yes, thanks.. I knew for sometime I had to come here...I am not knowledgeable as many here..will learn and contribute as much as I can...

Welcome Matt. I also follow your posts closely.