EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

QBF ... you are super-pissed with CO. Take it easy ... the guy is a good guy. I have personally talked with him. What he says makes a lot of sense. If EB1 and EB2ROW demand appears then he has a legal obligation to fulfil that demand. All of us knew that throughout the year EB1 and EB2ROW demand was subdued. So a day was going to come when all that latent demand would break lose.

Besides, CO simply allocates a visa number, it is USCIS that is requesting those additional numbers from him for EB1 and EB2ROW.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Even they share the info, it won't make any difference.

CO's words are not trustable at all. He played EB community big time.

---

That hurts! Hopefully you will be C within a couple of months and get out of this mess.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by valuablehurdle

My PD is April 15th, 2007. Ha hahhaha. Stuck for the last two months now.

I was hoping that once I get my GC, I would quickly quit my boring IT job and start doing what i really love. I regularly compete in cross-fit sports in our state. I am a certified fitness trainer and wanted to shift into this field..

Well, I am stuck !!!!

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

QBF ... you are super-pissed with CO. Take it easy ... the guy is a good guy. I have personally talked with him. What he says makes a lot of sense. If EB1 and EB2ROW demand appears then he has a legal obligation to fulfil that demand. All of us knew that throughout the year EB1 and EB2ROW demand was subdued. So a day was going to come when all that latent demand would break lose.

Besides, CO simply allocates a visa number, it is USCIS that is requesting those additional numbers from him for EB1 and EB2ROW.

---

I think you are right.

I think we cannot assume anything until Q3 next year. They will first see the trend of EB1 and EB2 Row for first two quarters and then depending upon that, make a SFM or BTM. I dont think they would be proactive to think that this SFM or BTM EB2IC applications would be documentarily qualified to use next year SOFAD. This is something we are thinking.

Friends,

Everyone's frustration is understandable. This month's VB did disappoint. However, let us be thankful about the fact that the dates remained stay-put at Apr 15, '07. The way CO commented makes me a little worried about next month's VB bulletin. I hope it does not retrogress from its current state at least.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qblogfan

I don't know that person. He just asked and posted on mitbbs.

Originally he told us that Mr.CO is helping EB2, but it turns out CO f***ed EB2.

---

Huh... so typical americanism.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

QBF ... you are super-pissed with CO. Take it easy ... the guy is a good guy. I have personally talked with him. What he says makes a lot of sense. If EB1 and EB2ROW demand appears then he has a legal obligation to fulfil that demand. All of us knew that throughout the year EB1 and EB2ROW demand was subdued. So a day was going to come when all that latent demand would break lose.

Besides, CO simply allocates a visa number, it is USCIS that is requesting those additional numbers from him for EB1 and EB2ROW.


.

---

May be next time if anyone talks to him , we should ask his opinion that in absence of legislative action , what could be done to provide some relief for people who have been waiting for years (PWMB) to file 485 :-)

The past method of advancing the dates and then retrogressing was better for us than present clarity of USCIS where while they will not retrogress the dates, they will not advance it until they have underlying visas available.

Hey Q and other gurus, question for you all -

We know there's a per-country limit of 7% that translates to around 9000 visas for India, and about 3000 for EB2 India. Are they mandated by law to spread the usage of these 3000 across 12 months, or can they use it in the first month of the FY (i.e October)?

In other words, can they use this 3000 for India EB2 completely in October 2012 given that they already have a demand that is greater then that. Plz reply.

They can not allocate more than 27% in any quarter except last quarter.. This has been discussed many times in this thread but I know this thread has grown large enough..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pg_at_q

Hey Q and other gurus, question for you all -

We know there's a per-country limit of 7% that translates to around 9000 visas for India, and about 3000 for EB2 India. Are they mandated by law to spread the usage of these 3000 across 12 months, or can they use it in the first month of the FY (i.e October)?

In other words, can they use this 3000 for India EB2 completely in October 2012 given that they already have a demand that is greater then that. Plz reply.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pg_at_q

Hey Q and other gurus, question for you all -

We know there's a per-country limit of 7% that translates to around 9000 visas for India, and about 3000 for EB2 India. Are they mandated by law to spread the usage of these 3000 across 12 months, or can they use it in the first month of the FY (i.e October)?

In other words, can they use this 3000 for India EB2 completely in October 2012 given that they already have a demand that is greater then that. Plz reply.

---

Yes, it can be as long as EB1/EB2ROWMP usage is less and first quarter overall VISA usage is less than 27% of 140K.

FY2011- EB2I - all FY quota was use by April 2011.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5542.html

Friends,

I am little tired of thinking about this bulletin and how this has Effed up a lot of people's hopes. So here is something that I found funny thinking about the distribution of our visitors around the world.

I apologize in advance to anybody who is going to be offended by this. If you get offended please write to QBF and he will straighten you out. QBF sorry my friend ... I am just not in a good mood ... so trying to pick on you. I hope you don't mind.

Enjoy ! And send some suggestions and we will update this graph of our visitors around the world.

p.s. Teddy - Where is Rodnyb? Lets find him :)

Jago Mohan Pyaare !!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by meso129

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5542.html

---

I would say don't read too much into what is written in VB other than the dates. CO always fills VBs with lot of gibberish as if he has to create a multi-page document. Sometimes he copy-pastes INA into VB. Other times he adds his own thoughts which will change in the very next bulletin. Look up the dates and ignore the CO's explanations in VB.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by evoori

They can not allocate more than 27% in any quarter except last quarter.. This has been discussed many times in this thread but I know this thread has grown large enough..

---

Thanks evoori and veni001

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qblogfan

don't take CO's words seriously.

all these words are just excuses.........

we never know the real time data and nobody is checking him.

he does what he wants, but his words are nothing but BS........

---

He is amazing to give the shitty reason all the time....

Q,

The disappointment is a repeat of Sep 2010. Last yr it was a surge of EB1 and Eb2 ROW. Are we sure it's again EB1 and EB2 row or is their some other reason? You also pointed out some time back that their are enough cases from EB1 and EB2 row then why they were kept on hold for 2-3 months. I am not seeing BTM in near future. What a mess?

I think the disappointment is due to, as Leo called it, "Elevated Expectations".

And yes, I think I am guilty of not keeping any safety buffer in my projections. So e.g. in this case I thought they would continue to run EB1 and EB2 ROW at the same rate as first 10 months. But it seems 11th and 12th month they seem to expect a pickup in those categories which is why they slowed EB2IC train.

However on a second thought I do wonder how come when August has just started they know that EB1 and EB2ROW are going to pick up. It does suggest some sort of policy decision and arrangement across agencies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by yank

Q,

The disappointment is a repeat of Sep 2010. Last yr it was a surge of EB1 and Eb2 ROW. Are we sure it's again EB1 and EB2 row or is their some other reason? You also pointed out some time back that their are enough cases from EB1 and EB2 row then why they were kept on hold for 2-3 months. I am not seeing BTM in near future. What a mess?

---

Looks like my prediction came true...unfortunately!! My Sep 2007 PD remains a distant dream

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Hey Nishant,
Good to see that u are a LOTR fan as well. Here's what Eomer wud have said :)

“Look for BTM in SEP VB, but do not trust to hope for it has foresaken these lands.”
-- Eomer, The Two Towers

PS: now dont ask me why my username is gchopeful !!!

---

Sorry guys I have lost it today.....

Oh by God lag gayi…
kya se kya hua…
dekha to katora…
jhaanka to kuan…
ye bheja garden hai
aur tension maali hai

bhaag bhaag GC ke picche bhaag!!!


Saala naseeb hi ga**du toh kya karega soggadu (et al...)

Good analysis Nishanth. I have one question, the demana data for EB2IC as of september is 8000. Do you think it's going stay at same level for October or will it reduce by another 2-3k.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

A preliminary rough analysis for FY 2012.

8000 - demand data
4000 - PWMB hidden demand
6000 - Porting demand

They are kind of already beginning with above 18k demand in FY 2012, just moving dates back to July 2007 threshold would yield them 12k demand as well as the porting is a throughout the year consistent phenomena.

Let’s assume the 5k for EB2 I/C negates the Porting to be just 1000.

So we can say they are starting with 13k hidden/known/will arise demand.

Let's say each month later on, till Q3 2008 has almost 2500 demand each month.

Half August 2007 : 1250
Each month then on till late 2008 : 2500

SO -- Dates
-- ------
13k -- 15th August 2007
14.25k -- 1st Sep 2007
17k -- 8th Oct 2007
19.5k -- 8th Nov 2007
20k -- 15th Nov 2007
22k -- 8th Dec 2007
24.5k -- 8st Jan 2008
27k -- 8th Feb 2008
29.5k -- 8th March 2008
30k -- 15th March 2008

Positives:
- All EB2 I/C till 15th April 2007 accounted for.
- No 15/12 demand for EB1, EB2 ROW coming into FY 2012, backlog reduced as much as they could, so backlog is not a concern in FY 2012
- EB2 ROW shall continue to remain current

Puzzles:
- what will be patterns of EB1, EB2 ROW, EB5
- will CO consider doing quarterly SO in conjunction with SFM
- is BTM in favor at all
- what will be strategy of CO in terms of SFM, UFM, BTM, and so on to have the pipeline functioning properly

Guys, let me know if something is wrong, or can be better factored in.

---

Since there is no movement for EB2IC in Sept 2011, FY 2012 (Oct 2012) start with 8K. No reduction. In addition we have to add porting and PWMB numbers. So total of 18K demand.

Good analysis Nishant. Wanted to do something like this...but i lost it today, did not want to get into 2012 so early and did not want to attract attacks from friends here who are as pissed as me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by harick

Good analysis Nishanth. I have one question, the demana data for EB2IC as of september is 8000. Do you think it's going stay at same level for October or will it reduce by another 2-3k.

---

So what happens to those who have rec'd NVC fee notice? I read somewhere that the fees expire in 12 months.. Is my understanding correct? If that's the case then people who have rec'd these fee notices in March this year will expire by the time the Q3 move kicks in. Articles that I have read on NVC notices have shown movement in few months.. Not sure why the hold up on EB2? This sucks!

This was discussed few months ago and I think the final verdict was, people have 12 months to pay the NVC fees in response to the notice. However once the fees is paid, it wont expire and will be used as and when their dates are Current.

Why there was an hold on EB2... very simple... DOS/USCIS wanted it. Somebody posted here that Mr. CO said that EB1 and EB2 ROW have surged. Not sure if that is authentic. In any case good luck for FY 2012.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Jan2008

So what happens to those who have rec'd NVC fee notice? I read somewhere that the fees expire in 12 months.. Is my understanding correct? If that's the case then people who have rec'd these fee notices in March this year will expire by the time the Q3 move kicks in. Articles that I have read on NVC notices have shown movement in few months.. Not sure why the hold up on EB2? This sucks!

---

harick, Jan2008, both your questions, skpanda answered very well.

basically, demand data had no significance to decision of EB2 I/C movement for September, it turns out.

skpanda, a very important reason I did this analysis quickly, was I wanted to give reasonable hope and future direction to everyone. I was feeling really sad for everyone, even sogaddu disappeared.

Thanks for your kind words.

It's best, and honestly pragmatic, to take this year by year, hence only did so for FY 2012.

gchopeful123 and fellow LOTR fans, wish we could see some inspiring LOTR quote. But today is a hard day, one has to admit.

What the ^$&^$%#%#%##^$^$$##!..............sorry guys but this really, really sucks :(
I'm just soooooooooooooo....... disappointed !!!
And Soggadu changed his avatar which is even more depressing ..sigh..

About EB3-I movement.

Many people were wondering how so much EB3 I movement. Teddy put a very interesting thought in another forum. Since these dates are so old, USCIS might be issuing EVL RFEs, and they don't get response or don't get proper response to them, and hence they want to move to a larger cushion date, because of this pattern.

One has to think, these dates for EB3 I are in 2002, it is 9 years back. Some folks may have just gone back for good. Or gone to other countries. Or may have found it really difficult to maintain that job profile / job area for such unreasonable period of time.