EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Printable View

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

03-08-2021, 08:06 AM
incredible

Number crunching done by a trackitt user (ABar15). An interesting read.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page. Copy pasted here below.

Spillover Visa Numbers: Caveats & Bottlenecks
Sources:
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

260,000 spillover visas from 2020:
Category Allotted visa
EB1 74932
EB2 74932
EB3 74932
EB4 18602
EB5 18602

2018 2019* 2020** 2021** Total
EB1 India 7,523; 7,181; 7,000; 7000; =28704
China 4,525; 2,689; 3,689; 3,500; =14403

EB2 India (2009-21) 6,674; 15,313; 22,286; 22,311; 21,440; 25,634; 32,702; 49,054; 42,359; 40,317; 44,000; 44,000; 44,000; =410090
China (2016-21) 7,472; 6,289; 8,036; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; =51797

EB3 India (2010-21) 6,682; 6,929; 4,110; 3,455; 3,878; 6,451; 10,179; 8,868; 8,279; 10,905; 11,000 11,000; =91736
China (2017-21) 4,412; 4,200; 3,722; 3,500; 3,500; =19334

*2019 projection based on the pending cases
** 2020 & 2021 projections based on the 2016-2019 trend
=Total.

Observations:
Total approved EB1 I-140s for India=28000 & China=14500
EB1 vertical spillover to EB2 => 75,000
Visa numbers available to EB2=> 75000 + 32500 = 107,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s for China (up to 2020) = 41,500
EB2 Visas available to India => 107,500 - 41,500 = 65,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s (India) from 2009-2013 = 88,000; However, 20% of the approved visas might have upgraded to EB1 or downgraded to EB3. Therefore, active EB2 I-40s could be around 70,000.
If 1/3 of EB2 from 2013 to 2015 are downgraded to EB3, the number of downgrades would come around 25,000.
Total approved EB3 I-140s (India) from 2010-2016 = 41,500 & Downgrade from EB2 to EB3 = 25,000
Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.
Bottleneck:
There are only 150 working days are left for USCIS in this year to process almost 260,000 visas. It means USCIS has to issue approximately 1750 visas every working day. It would be a daunting task for USCIS.
Caveats:
1. I am not sure about the USCIS policy about how it will distribute the 260,000 visas between India and China. In other words, would USCIS push India EB2 more aggressively over China?
2. I am not sure about how much El Salvador and Mexico would use the EB4 and EB5 visas. If any visas left in EB4 and EB5 will also undergo vertical spillover to add to the EB2.
3. The 7% visa quote from the current year still applicable to India and China. So, the visas from the current year also helps to move the EB2 and EB3 a little further.
03-08-2021, 09:56 AM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

Number crunching done by a trackitt user (ABar15). An interesting read.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page. Copy pasted here below.

Spillover Visa Numbers: Caveats & Bottlenecks
Sources:
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...its-FY2021.pdf

260,000 spillover visas from 2020:
Category Allotted visa
EB1 74932
EB2 74932
EB3 74932
EB4 18602
EB5 18602

2018 2019* 2020** 2021** Total
EB1 India 7,523; 7,181; 7,000; 7000; =28704
China 4,525; 2,689; 3,689; 3,500; =14403

EB2 India (2009-21) 6,674; 15,313; 22,286; 22,311; 21,440; 25,634; 32,702; 49,054; 42,359; 40,317; 44,000; 44,000; 44,000; =410090
China (2016-21) 7,472; 6,289; 8,036; 10,000; 10,000; 10,000; =51797

EB3 India (2010-21) 6,682; 6,929; 4,110; 3,455; 3,878; 6,451; 10,179; 8,868; 8,279; 10,905; 11,000 11,000; =91736
China (2017-21) 4,412; 4,200; 3,722; 3,500; 3,500; =19334

*2019 projection based on the pending cases
** 2020 & 2021 projections based on the 2016-2019 trend
=Total.

Observations:
Total approved EB1 I-140s for India=28000 & China=14500
EB1 vertical spillover to EB2 => 75,000
Visa numbers available to EB2=> 75000 + 32500 = 107,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s for China (up to 2020) = 41,500
EB2 Visas available to India => 107,500 - 41,500 = 65,500
Total approved EB2 I-140s (India) from 2009-2013 = 88,000; However, 20% of the approved visas might have upgraded to EB1 or downgraded to EB3. Therefore, active EB2 I-40s could be around 70,000.
If 1/3 of EB2 from 2013 to 2015 are downgraded to EB3, the number of downgrades would come around 25,000.
Total approved EB3 I-140s (India) from 2010-2016 = 41,500 & Downgrade from EB2 to EB3 = 25,000
Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.
Bottleneck:
There are only 150 working days are left for USCIS in this year to process almost 260,000 visas. It means USCIS has to issue approximately 1750 visas every working day. It would be a daunting task for USCIS.
Caveats:
1. I am not sure about the USCIS policy about how it will distribute the 260,000 visas between India and China. In other words, would USCIS push India EB2 more aggressively over China?
2. I am not sure about how much El Salvador and Mexico would use the EB4 and EB5 visas. If any visas left in EB4 and EB5 will also undergo vertical spillover to add to the EB2.
3. The 7% visa quote from the current year still applicable to India and China. So, the visas from the current year also helps to move the EB2 and EB3 a little further.

Good one. But where is the multiplier applied to the pending numbers. Am I missing it?
03-08-2021, 09:57 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.

Unfortunately the math is all wrong for the following reasons.

i) EB1/EB2/EB3 is not just for India and China. I did not see ROW included in the calculations.
ii) China will NOT get more than 7% of available visas as India is the most backlogged country (in EB2/EB3).
iii) No of approved i140s is NOT EQUAL TO No of AOS applications. Most likely number of AOS applications = 2 X Approved i140s.
03-08-2021, 11:35 AM
AceMan

Conclusion: As per my assumption, the EB1 will remain current hereon; EB2 may move up to 2015 by Sept 2021; and EB3 may move up to 2016 by Sept 2021.

I would love to see this kind of movement. But not happening.
03-08-2021, 02:38 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

As I said it should not be any issue as long as it is within the same org. Eg One Engineering VP's org to another . As long as you/company can keep the job description within what was filed for the I-140 you are safe . Its very easy when you are in the same company for two reasons
1. The RFE if ever issued typically asks for a new Supp-J only if you changed employers . In your case you are in the same company, so you will not have to respond to it .
2. The USCIS realizes that our job functions cannot be the same for years at end just because we were born in India. Your perm.I-140 I am sure was was filed with a generic description that would give you the flexibility to switch fields . You just need 50% overlap in the worst case .

Go for it man. Don't live in fear.

thank you!
03-08-2021, 03:12 PM
Noesis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noesis

Finally got the checks cashed today morning. Never felt this happy after someone took the money :)
Hopefully receipt numbers would follow soon, if not, then Hello Emma.!
Nothing on the H4 and H4 EAD though, still pending with the same status after multiple Inquiries, follow ups, SRs, calls, Chat.

Got the receipts numbers today for 485, 765 and 131.
All from Nebraska Service Center starting with LIN (I had mailed the applications to Lewisville)

@Gurus, I have a question; My spouse's receipts have an A number different than mine; she has her own i140 approved but we didn't mention the A number on application since she is a derivative applicant in this case. Is this okay or a concern.?
03-08-2021, 04:23 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noesis

Got the receipts numbers today for 485, 765 and 131.
All from Nebraska Service Center starting with LIN (I had mailed the applications to Lewisville)

@Gurus, I have a question; My spouse's receipts have an A number different than mine; she has her own i140 approved but we didn't mention the A number on application since she is a derivative applicant in this case. Is this okay or a concern.?

The fact that you got all your receipts means that you should be good as far as forms being in general good order. Also, even if you didn't share the A-Number, I suppose the supporting documents you may have provided for your spouse's legal stay in the US will usually have that information printed on them. For example, all I-797 notices do have the beneficiary's A-Number in them.
03-08-2021, 04:50 PM
Noesis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

The fact that you got all your receipts means that you should be good as far as forms being in general good order. Also, even if you didn't share the A-Number, I suppose the supporting documents you may have provided for your spouse's legal stay in the US will usually have that information printed on them. For example, all I-797 notices do have the beneficiary's A-Number in them.

Thank you much.
03-08-2021, 07:14 PM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noesis

Got the receipts numbers today for 485, 765 and 131.
All from Nebraska Service Center starting with LIN (I had mailed the applications to Lewisville)

@Gurus, I have a question; My spouse's receipts have an A number different than mine; she has her own i140 approved but we didn't mention the A number on application since she is a derivative applicant in this case. Is this okay or a concern.?

You are lucky that it went to Nebraska. They are much faster with processing (when compared to TSC) and promptly send out RFEs for I-693 once they expire. A# or Alien Number is the equivalent of SSN for USCIS. It has to be different for all applicants.

Was your "Received Date" printed correctly in receipt notices?
03-08-2021, 08:22 PM
newsletter1978

I applied 1485 on Oct 29. The receipt notice has MSC.. My wife got biometrics and got her EAD and advance parole. I got current in March bulletin but have not received biometrics appointment so far. Somehoe they processed my wife's and mine seperately. anyone on same boat?
03-08-2021, 08:38 PM
Noesis

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

You are lucky that it went to Nebraska. They are much faster with processing (when compared to TSC) and promptly send out RFEs for I-693 once they expire. A# or Alien Number is the equivalent of SSN for USCIS. It has to be different for all applicants.

Was your "Received Date" printed correctly in receipt notices?

Got it. Thank you Idliman; much appreciated. Fingers Crossed. :)

Yes, Received Dates are printed correctly in all the receipt notices.
03-09-2021, 11:25 AM
bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.
03-09-2021, 11:37 AM
ak7419

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.

I am not sure on how they are issuing RFEs - I guess it depends on the service center. I am one of those with PD Sep 2009 who is current since November but have not received any RFE. I don't even know if my case is being handled by NSC or TSC - I just gave up at this point.
03-09-2021, 12:14 PM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.

can you please clarify which source is predicting EB2I to get to March-May 2011? except for couple of folks in telegram group whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 receiving RFEs for medicals, I haven't seen any reference to such a huge EB2I movement for upcoming month...
03-09-2021, 12:46 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikenlalan

With all the predictions I am hearing from multiple sources, it seems everyone is expecting EB2I to get to March-May 2011. I saw in a telegram group that two folks whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 have received RFE for medicals and they applied in Oct 2020 with fingerprint completion in Dec 2020. It is strange that many folks who have applied long ago with PD 2010 have not even received RFE yet. It will all come down to processing capacity and whose applications will be complete/respond to RFE soon by the time the file is picked up for adjudication should get greened this FY.

I personally know one person got an RFE for I-693. One or 2 requests do not quantify or enable us to conclude that we have an year as forward movement. Unless we have a big flow of RFE requests like what was seen for early 2010 couple of months back, I will be skeptical. It is already 9th of March and the RFE's should have flown in last week.
03-09-2021, 12:58 PM
mr00us

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

can you please clarify which source is predicting EB2I to get to March-May 2011? except for couple of folks in telegram group whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 receiving RFEs for medicals, I haven't seen any reference to such a huge EB2I movement for upcoming month...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent Spillover---->0(2009)*20(2010)*25(2011)*30(2011)*30(2012)*40(20 13)*60(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 Left as of Oct 2020---->1000(2009)*16282(2010)*28786(2011)*28786(2011)*28 786(2011)*27732(2012)*29008(2013)*28650(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Down-port to EB3---->325.64(2009)*5757.2(2010-0%)*7196.5(2011-20%)*8635.8(2011-25%)*8319.6(2011-30%)*11603.2(2012)*17190(2013)*30234.74(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Left in EB-2---->1000(2009)*15956(2010)*23029(2011)*21590(2011)*20 150(2011)*19412(2012)*17405(2013)*11460(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3 Left as of Oct 2020---->0(2009)*5514(2010)*6009(2011)*6010(2011)*6011(201 1)*4681(2012)*4973(2013)*5357(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In EB3 after down-port---->0(2009)*5840(2010)*11766(2011)*13207(2011)*14647( 2011)*13001(2012)*16576(2013)*22547(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-May-11(25% 2011 down-port)*1-Jun-11(30% 2011 down-port)**
EB3 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-Apr-11(25% 2011 down-port)*15-Mar-11(30% 2011 down-port)
* Provided USCIS does not waste any visas
* Projected 2020 numbers for FY 2021
* Multiplication factor of 2.4 used across the board
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source of I-140 Numbers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf
03-09-2021, 02:45 PM
bikenlalan

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamdeb

can you please clarify which source is predicting EB2I to get to March-May 2011? except for couple of folks in telegram group whose PD falls within Feb and May 2011 receiving RFEs for medicals, I haven't seen any reference to such a huge EB2I movement for upcoming month...

The predictions are not for the upcoming month but by the end of the FY (Sep 2021).
03-09-2021, 03:01 PM
LeoAugust

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr00us

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent Spillover---->0(2009)*20(2010)*25(2011)*30(2011)*30(2012)*40(20 13)*60(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 Left as of Oct 2020---->1000(2009)*16282(2010)*28786(2011)*28786(2011)*28 786(2011)*27732(2012)*29008(2013)*28650(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Down-port to EB3---->325.64(2009)*5757.2(2010-0%)*7196.5(2011-20%)*8635.8(2011-25%)*8319.6(2011-30%)*11603.2(2012)*17190(2013)*30234.74(2014)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Left in EB-2---->1000(2009)*15956(2010)*23029(2011)*21590(2011)*20 150(2011)*19412(2012)*17405(2013)*11460(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3 Left as of Oct 2020---->0(2009)*5514(2010)*6009(2011)*6010(2011)*6011(201 1)*4681(2012)*4973(2013)*5357(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In EB3 after down-port---->0(2009)*5840(2010)*11766(2011)*13207(2011)*14647( 2011)*13001(2012)*16576(2013)*22547(2014)*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EB2 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-May-11(25% 2011 down-port)*1-Jun-11(30% 2011 down-port)**
EB3 prediction---->1-May-11(20% 2011 down-port)*15-Apr-11(25% 2011 down-port)*15-Mar-11(30% 2011 down-port)
* Provided USCIS does not waste any visas
* Projected 2020 numbers for FY 2021
* Multiplication factor of 2.4 used across the board
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source of I-140 Numbers: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

34K i140 downgraded from Eb2-EB3(includes 2011/2012/2013/2014) from Oct-Dec 2020. In your calculation downgrades comes to 34k or less...
03-09-2021, 03:04 PM
1312011_eb2I

If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.
03-09-2021, 03:12 PM
bikenlalan

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I

If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.

RN Law are one of the thugs in the litigation arena, I would not trust them to sue USCIS in good faith of the EB immigrants. Even if they do, it won't get them anything as USCIS can always use COVID as a reason to thwart the litigation.
Also, keep in mind the Siskind litigation back in 2015, it got nowhere.
03-09-2021, 03:58 PM
mr00us

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

34K i140 downgraded from Eb2-EB3(includes 2011/2012/2013/2014) from Oct-Dec 2020. In your calculation downgrades comes to 34k or less...

Actually I have way too much than 34K for 2009-2014. If it makes any sense, anything down-ported after 2011 won't make much difference for FY2021, which is why I have split the down-port for 2011 in 3 sections (20, 25 and 30%). And these are just guesses. If you have actual data of down-porting by the year, please let me know and I can finetune my calculations.

As such these are things to make me feel better. At the end of the day, USCIS may waste a lot of these numbers and we will be held holding the bag anyways. :-)
03-09-2021, 04:07 PM
1312011_eb2I

Hmm. Sisk is more about FB and DV. I think RandN do good job when it comes to EB , he does YouTubeing multiple times in a week to keep us updated.
03-09-2021, 04:12 PM
Djidondon

How to predict spillover ( EB3i category ) for FY2022

Hi Gurus

Could anyone of you please direct me to the rabbit hole on how to predict spillovers for EB category ( EB3i or EB2i ) for fy2022
03-09-2021, 04:14 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I

If USCIS is not issuing EAD , it may be a good sign.
You may get GC directly. Attorneys like RandN are already planning to sue if they waste visa.

USCIS not issuing EAD is just a sign that they like to just take our money and not give timely service in return. They should have been named US Citizenship and Immigration Blackhole.
03-09-2021, 04:25 PM
LeoAugust

Quote:

Originally Posted by mr00us

Actually I have way too much than 34K for 2009-2014. If it makes any sense, anything down-ported after 2011 won't make much difference for FY2021, which is why I have split the down-port for 2011 in 3 sections (20, 25 and 30%). And these are just guesses. If you have actual data of down-porting by the year, please let me know and I can finetune my calculations.

As such these are things to make me feel better. At the end of the day, USCIS may waste a lot of these numbers and we will be held holding the bag anyways. :-)

Year wise we don't have. But total downgrade we were tracking from the feed. And it comes around 34K.
03-09-2021, 05:45 PM
LeoAugust

Hi Gurus, One query... For Bio reuse for 765, will the FP be taken later during EAD renewal or when the primary becomes current, they will taken the final FP for 485?
Thanks
03-09-2021, 06:02 PM
rabp77

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Hi Gurus, One query... For Bio reuse for 765, will the FP be taken later during EAD renewal or when the primary becomes current, they will taken the final FP for 485?
Thanks

USCIS assumes finger print validity to be 15 months for any background checks (https://www.uscis.gov/adoption/suita...kground-checks). I did not have to redo fingerprints during EAD extension. But i dont have much data on this, so there may be a chance USCIS could request a fingerprint a second time for EAD extensions, but i have not seen this happen in the limited data i have for this.
03-09-2021, 06:29 PM
vsivarama

The public charge rule has been stopped by a Chicago judge. Hope it stays that way. The i944 forms filed by us are now useless. Technically this is should speed up the processing for USCIS while adjudicating i485. Hope the interviews remain sidelined as well.
03-09-2021, 06:39 PM
LeoAugust

Quote:

Originally Posted by rabp77

USCIS assumes finger print validity to be 15 months for any background checks (https://www.uscis.gov/adoption/suita...kground-checks). I did not have to redo fingerprints during EAD extension. But i dont have much data on this, so there may be a chance USCIS could request a fingerprint a second time for EAD extensions, but i have not seen this happen in the limited data i have for this.

Thanks. In case of my friends who have EAD, they never go for FP for their EAD extension. But some of them when current going for FP for 485. That's the understanding I am getting and for 765, I dont this FP is required. when they are reusing FP it seems for EAD/AP it is not required.
03-10-2021, 01:07 AM
calking1975

Need advice

Hi experts,
Need your advice, I am following this website for a long time.
Here is my situation.
My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2-I), I survived few layoffs and changed 3 employers in last 13 years, still no end to GC journey.
We filed I-485, EAD/AP on 10/20/2020, my I-1485 application is accepted with FP fee received date 11/20/2020.
My spouse and kid's applications rejected, due to missing information, refiled for family on 12/22/2020.
My employer lost contract with client, they have 7 months for transition till, (till Sept'2021).
My current H1B is expiring in Dec'21.
I still didn't get EAD, no finger print appointment yet, hoping to get 2-3 months.
My client is fine with me, so my options are
1. Continue with current employer till Sept, hopefully I get EAD mean time, so I can change employer using EAD (AC21), in this case I may not have H1b.
2. Change to other employer/vendor now with H1b transfer.

What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

I know so many questions, appreciate your suggestions.

Thanks.
03-10-2021, 07:43 AM
drop2ocean

My wife has lost H4 EAD. Is there a way she can accept new employment while waiting for a replacement ? I hear it could take 4-8 months for the new one to come in.

We have applied for 1485 based EAD in Oct 2020 as well. Hoping that would come along soon.
03-10-2021, 08:11 AM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by calking1975

Hi experts,
Need your advice, I am following this website for a long time.
Here is my situation.
My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2-I), I survived few layoffs and changed 3 employers in last 13 years, still no end to GC journey.
We filed I-485, EAD/AP on 10/20/2020, my I-1485 application is accepted with FP fee received date 11/20/2020.
My spouse and kid's applications rejected, due to missing information, refiled for family on 12/22/2020.
My employer lost contract with client, they have 7 months for transition till, (till Sept'2021).
My current H1B is expiring in Dec'21.
I still didn't get EAD, no finger print appointment yet, hoping to get 2-3 months.
My client is fine with me, so my options are
1. Continue with current employer till Sept, hopefully I get EAD mean time, so I can change employer using EAD (AC21), in this case I may not have H1b.
2. Change to other employer/vendor now with H1b transfer.

What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

I know so many questions, appreciate your suggestions.

Thanks.

The chances in-general of 485 denial are low as long as all the general things are in order. It is the same which would deny primary H1 itself. That being said, your PD is not yet current for FAD. You may need to give it at-least 3 months or so of it being current to get greened. It may be possible that you may get greened by September, but also it may go to next year (Oct onwards). The one silver lining probably could be once it becomes current, it could stay current for long time (with spill overs etc.), so it may be greened any time after that. The first hope for you is to get the EAD. But you should not wait for it and initiate H1b with your employer and can discuss with them that you will join them after approval of H1b. Itself may take few months and you can continue to work with your company during that time and at the same time hoping for EAD. Both 1 and 2 can be in parallel for you. Neither has to be preferred than the other at least for the time being. Depending on which one comes first, you can take a call on that later. Other experts may weigh in here. Good luck.
03-10-2021, 08:17 AM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

The chances in-general of 485 denial are low as long as all the general things are in order. It is the same which would deny primary H1 itself. That being said, your PD is not yet current for FAD. You may need to give it at-least 3 months or so of it being current to get greened. It may be possible that you may get greened by September, but also it may go to next year (Oct onwards). The one silver lining probably could be once it becomes current, it could stay current for long time (with spill overs etc.), so it may be greened any time after that. The first hope for you is to get the EAD. But you should not wait for it and initiate H1b with your employer and can discuss with them that you will join them after approval of H1b. Itself may take few months and you can continue to work with your company during that time and at the same time hoping for EAD. Both 1 and 2 can be in parallel for you. Neither has to be preferred than the other at least for the time being. Depending on which one comes first, you can take a call on that later. Other experts may weigh in here. Good luck.

Just to clarify, when it was mentioned about #1 and #2 being parallel. You can ask your client to file for H1B without changing right away and inform that you will join them when either of the things happens (either EAD arrival and/or H1 approval). A
03-10-2021, 08:40 AM
H1b2006

Hi guys received PWD after 6months, my new employer is doing recruitment now, for filing perm next month. SOC CODE i have in 2011 no longer exists, what precautions do i need to take to take a SOC which is similar to old SOC code and job duties and designation so that i will not face problems for 485 Supplement J later on.if i make sure job duties in 2011 soc code are inline in my recruitment is thast good enough
03-10-2021, 09:07 AM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by H1b2006

Hi guys received PWD after 6months, my new employer is doing recruitment now, for filing perm next month. SOC CODE i have in 2011 no longer exists, what precautions do i need to take to take a SOC which is similar to old SOC code and job duties and designation so that i will not face problems for 485 Supplement J later on.if i make sure job duties in 2011 soc code are inline in my recruitment is thast good enough

I had my SOC Code 15-1132 used before and when I submitted 485 J in October, the number was 1133. I did not ask the attorney yet, but based on past information, I see no issues.
03-10-2021, 09:45 AM
H1b2006

how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.
03-10-2021, 10:36 AM
3nov10

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

I had my SOC Code 15-1132 used before and when I submitted 485 J in October, the number was 1133. I did not ask the attorney yet, but based on past information, I see no issues.

Ace, my new employer also applied a new perm for me (July 2020 - not approved yet).
I always thought this is a new perm for a new job. Why does it need to be in-line with the old SOC code. Does it have implications on porting the date when we apply I-140?
03-10-2021, 11:12 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by calking1975

What are the chances of I-485 denial, if I can't get H1b employers, continue with EAD.
What are the chances, my GC approved by Sept'21.

Thanks.

Most of the i485 denial cases are because the underlying i-140 was denied. There are very few i485 denials after i140 is approved and usually the reasons have to be pretty egregious like fraud or felony. So it's pretty safe to switch over to EAD. Your chances of getting GC are pretty good this FY. But you need not be in a hurry, since the petition for your spouse and kid were filed a couple of months later. Their applications are potentially running behind your application.
03-10-2021, 11:17 AM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by H1b2006

how are you 100% confident 1133 is inline 100% with 15-1132?

are your original perm duties matching to your current job duties.

I think these things are based on experience of previous filings. Asking for a 100% confidence in forum is not right. Please go through the details under the relevant labor codes at bls.gov and make your own judgement. Here are some details

https://www.bls.gov/oes/2017/may/oes151132.htm
https://www.bls.gov/oes/2017/may/oes151133.htm

The way I did it in the past is suggested this to my attorney and then asked for guidance and went ahead and filed for Supplement J and it was approved.
03-10-2021, 01:48 PM
H1b2006

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3nov10

Ace, my new employer also applied a new perm for me (July 2020 - not approved yet).
I always thought this is a new perm for a new job. Why does it need to be in-line with the old SOC code. Does it have implications on porting the date when we apply I-140?

I saw rahul reddy saying new job should be in similar field when using old pd from previous emp
Not from civil engineering to IT job

Show 40 post(s) from this thread on one page

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:08 PM.