EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by geevikram

This is messed up guys. I'm planning to get married in early may with a PD of Jul 2008. Don't know my odds of filing for 485. Any inputs?

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Vikram,

The best thing you can do is to file your I-485 before May 1st (as late as possible). That will ensure you will not be greened before retrogression. Once that happens, you have time until you PD becomes current to marry. Make sure you apply your future spouse's I-485 as soon as your date becomes current again and before you are greened.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

If as Spec mentions above, ROW demand hasn't seen destruction (Spec correct if Iamwrong ) then would the same be possible for EB2IC?

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Q,

Teddy and I weren't discussing DD, but the % of ROW people who add their case to Trackitt and whether that has changed. If it had increased, then the number of Trackitt approvals would represent less actual approvals and increase the numbers available for SOFAD.

I think as someone else mentioned, since EB2-ROW has always been Current, I'm not sure we would expect very much DD anyway.

Thanks mesan. Can you please provide any link to such discussions? If I have already applied, can I add my wife at a later date without my PD being current?

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Originally Posted by mesan123

As many of GURUS informed....just file your case....

i think you can add your spouse before your 485 is approved. on assumption that you apply end of april, if dates retrogress for may bulletion, then you can marry in may as you planned and bring your spouse and add her to your 485.....USCIS cant approve your case in one month if your date is not current....

Others can correct me if i am wrong.....

or if you want to wait...i think you will end up waiting for one year before your date again becomes current

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD there may be conflicts in other places ... but in this case I see USCIS and DOS walking lockstep.

I think this is a well thought carefully orchestrated policy. Unfortunately it elevated expectations and now they are going to deflate them.

I think the reality will be better than their pessimistic projections. And reality was anyway going to be worse than the inflated hopes. That's why the focus on fundamentals is so important.

We need to ask what really happened to the demand? Has it really destroyed. Upto what extend. If as Spec mentions above, ROW demand hasn't seen destruction (Spec correct if Iamwrong ) then would the same be possible for EB2IC?

I personally haven't yet looked into DD. So honestly I cant answer. My hunch is DD is not as severe as it seemed based on dates movements. Otherwise there wouldn't be any talk to retro to Aug 2007.

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Q, yes, DoS and USCIS may be lockstep in coordinated policy. But what kind of policy is this? If this is the best they can come up with then shame on both of them.

I think we both agreed in the past analysis about demand destruction and where the dates might end up. Yours had them at Q1 2008 and mine, a bit more optimistic at late Q2 2008.

I had this wishful thinking that may be USCIS processing would be just fast enough to consume QSP and resulting in no retrogression. Spec, quickly dispelled that notion.

Let us see if the dates do end up in the range we talked about.

To add i think you need to have your date current ....sorry missed that point.....but as ragx08 mentioned you can add your spouse as soon as your date is current again.....

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Originally Posted by geevikram

Thanks mesan. Can you please provide any link to such discussions? If I have already applied, can I add my wife at a later date without my PD being current?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

KD there may be conflicts in other places ... but in this case I see USCIS and DOS walking lockstep.

I think this is a well thought carefully orchestrated policy. Unfortunately it elevated expectations and now they are going to deflate them.

I think the reality will be better than their pessimistic projections. And reality was anyway going to be worse than the inflated hopes. That's why the focus on fundamentals is so important.

We need to ask what really happened to the demand? Has it really destroyed. Upto what extend. If as Spec mentions above, ROW demand hasn't seen destruction (Spec correct if Iamwrong ) then would the same be possible for EB2IC?

I personally haven't yet looked into DD. So honestly I cant answer. My hunch is DD is not as severe as it seemed based on dates movements. Otherwise there wouldn't be any talk to retro to Aug 2007.

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Q and KD, following was my post following the inventory release.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0516#post20516

- The inventory at the end of the day is just a report and assumes that the operational process is followed which could be every A # having a PD assigned.
- Most of us who have filed from Oct onwards saw spouse's PD as RD or blank, this might be because at that time there may have been a huge rush just to receipt applications, so the process of stamping the primary A# PD was not followed.
- Now in the preadjudicated days this would have worked because the primarily and derivative cases were linked already and derivative A# had PD.
- Now if the inventory reporting is not elegant enough to derive the derivatives applicant PD from the primary the Inventory would miss the data for most of the derivative applicants.

This is just a possibility besides everything else and if CO see's the inventory coupled with the demand data (Referring to Spec's explanation) he drastically moved the dates. Now in any organization there is always a disconnect between the management (Which relies on reports) and at the ground level (Those who receipt applications) and this may just be one classic case. The inventory at its face value is extremely hard to believe I think most people agreed on that.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q and KD, following was my post following the inventory release.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0516#post20516

- The inventory at the end of the day is just a report and assumes that the operational process is followed which could be every A # having a PD assigned.
- Most of us who have filed from Oct onwards saw spouse's PD as RD or blank, this might be because at that time there may have been a huge rush just to receipt applications, so the process of stamping the primary A# PD was not followed.
- Now in the preadjudicated days this would have worked because the primarily and derivative cases were linked already and derivative A# had PD.
- Now if the inventory reporting is not elegant enough to derive the derivatives applicant PD from the primary the Inventory would miss the data for most of the derivative applicants.

This is just a possibility besides everything else and if CO see's the inventory coupled with the demand data (Referring to Spec's explanation) he drastically moved the dates. Now in any organization there is always a disconnect between the management (Which relies on reports) and at the ground level (hose who receipt applications) and this may just be one classic case. Te inventory at its face value is extremely hard to believe I think most people agreed on that.

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It could be very well a possibility.

The bottomline is, the only thing you can rely upon USCIS for, is its unreliability.

I always thought that Ron Gotcher was way too harsh on USCIS but I can tell you now that he has more experience than me dealing with USCIS and his experience does not speak wrong for USCIS and its incompetency.

Thanks mesan and ragx08, I just saw ur post, If I get EAD and AP because of my petition and my spouse is still on h4, I obviously cannot use my EAD and AP, right? Because then H1 becomes invalid and so my spouse's status becomes invalid. Am'I right in this assumption?

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Originally Posted by mesan123

To add i think you need to have your date current ....sorry missed that point.....but as ragx08 mentioned you can add your spouse as soon as your date is current again.....

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Spec,

Statistically both should have strong correlation. If ROW cases being added to trackitt don't show significant deviation, then probably the ROW demand is steady YoY. Thus implying DD doesn't exist for ROW.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Teddy and I weren't discussing DD, but the % of ROW people who add their case to Trackitt and whether that has changed. If it had increased, then the number of Trackitt approvals would represent less actual approvals and increase the numbers available for SOFAD.

I think as someone else mentioned, since EB2-ROW has always been Current, I'm not sure we would expect very much DD anyway.

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YEs . have your H1b valid. then you can apply H4 for your spouse once she is back here then you can add her when your date becomes current again(assumption, you will apply before retrogression)

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Originally Posted by geevikram

Thanks mesan and ragx08, I just saw ur post, If I get EAD and AP because of my petition and my spouse is still on h4, I obviously cannot use my EAD and AP, right? Because then H1 becomes invalid and so my spouse's status becomes invalid. Am'I right in this assumption?

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Teddy

Yes. The inventory is not accurate picture of Total 485 backlog. I also think that moving dates to Aug 2007 (or 2007 for that matter) - if and when actually happens - will confirm that the prior demand data published was BS.

So lets see if they actaully retro into 2007. I guess lets not agonize over it. I am confident that EB2IC still has good future - the talk of retro notwithstanding.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q and KD, following was my post following the inventory release.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0516#post20516

- The inventory at the end of the day is just a report and assumes that the operational process is followed which could be every A # having a PD assigned.
- Most of us who have filed from Oct onwards saw spouse's PD as RD or blank, this might be because at that time there may have been a huge rush just to receipt applications, so the process of stamping the primary A# PD was not followed.
- Now in the preadjudicated days this would have worked because the primarily and derivative cases were linked already and derivative A# had PD.
- Now if the inventory reporting is not elegant enough to derive the derivatives applicant PD from the primary the Inventory would miss the data for most of the derivative applicants.

This is just a possibility besides everything else and if CO see's the inventory coupled with the demand data (Referring to Spec's explanation) he drastically moved the dates. Now in any organization there is always a disconnect between the management (Which relies on reports) and at the ground level (Those who receipt applications) and this may just be one classic case. The inventory at its face value is extremely hard to believe I think most people agreed on that.

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Thanks, that's what I thought. My best hope right now is to hope that the dates don't retrogress in May bulletin(he gave 2 month range) so that I have opportunity to come back and apply. EAD and AP will be such a big relief.

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Originally Posted by mesan123

YEs . have your H1b valid. then you can apply H4 for your spouse once she is back here then you can add her when your date becomes current again(assumption, you will apply before retrogression)

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I am a silent follower of this forum and have immensely benefited by reading the posts and would appreciate your feedback on my situation.

Sorry for deviating from the subject.. but i will be very grateful to hear views from experts in this forum. Here is my situation. I have PD August 2010 and my wife is currently on H4. She is pursuing her masters and we were hoping that our dates would get current and decided to continue her education in h4 status. Now the dates are heading south is it a good option to apply for COS to F1 in order to avail OPT? She is likely to graduate in December 2012. I know trying for employment in h1 means she has to apply in 2014 qouta and wait till 2013 october to begin her employment. No employer would wait until then to employ her.. my assumption is masters qouta will be over by the time she graduates.

Do you think converting to F1 makes sense or stay in h4 complete education wait till dates get current (god knows when it will reach aug 2010 again). Please provide me some ideas and share your thoughts!

In all this noise of retrogression, can some one please tell me what is going to happen to those NVC notices which have been sent out up to June, 2011?

Are those NVC notices just going to rot for few years until the dates move substantially forward again?

Also, Mr. CO made a statement on January 24, 2012 that EB2 will be getting a spillover of 12,000 this year, or may be 11000 (1000 less) this year from EB1 as EB1 usage has been low.

Read this,

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...nuary-19-2012/

It has not even been 2 months since he made that statement and today we hear him saying there is no spillover expected from EB-1. How come in less than 2 months his prediction went from 11,000 to 0?

I wonder if any immigration lawyer in that AILA meeting asked these questions to CO, the head of a highly incompetent organization called USCIS?

I guess I now may have to join qblogfan's league of CO bashing. :p

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

In all this noise of retrogression, can some one please tell me what is going to happen to those NVC notices which have been sent out up to June, 2011?

Are those NVC notices just going to rot for few years until the dates move substantially forward again?

I wonder if any immigration lawyer in that AILA meeting asked that question to CO, the head of a highly incompetent organization called USCIS?

I guess I may have to join qblogfan's league of CO bashing. :p

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Isn't NVC notice valid only for year? Or I read it wrong?

It is valid only for one year if the fees are not submitted by a candidate within a year of issuance of notice. Once fees are paid within a year, then notices will be valid indefinitely. But so far we have seen that NVC notices have not been issued unless USCIS intends to make those PDs current within 6 months to 1 year. I don't know what was their thought behind these latest NVC notices sent last month? I am really curious about it.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

It is valid only for one year if the fees are not submitted by a candidate within a year of issuance of notice. Once fees are paid, then receipts will be valid indefinitely. But so far we have seen that NVC notices have not been issues unless USCIS intends to make those PDs current within 6 months to 1 year. I don't know what was their thought behind these NVC notices right now?

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Thanks for explaination. I get it now.

Agree- hard to guess whats on their mind.

guys gals and gurus...

1. What % of total EB2 I cases are logged in trackitt? I ask this as most of our analysis is based on this data
2. According to Specs perm data figures a 2010 april applicant will have atleast 60K (provided 75% applied in Eb2 and each perm ~= 2.1 485) applications pending before him... Is this assumption right?

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

It is valid only for one year if the fees are not submitted by a candidate within a year of issuance of notice. Once fees are paid within a year, then notices will be valid indefinitely. But so far we have seen that NVC notices have not been issued unless USCIS intends to make those PDs current within 6 months to 1 year. I don't know what was their thought behind these latest NVC notices sent last month? I am really curious about it.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

In all this noise of retrogression, can some one please tell me what is going to happen to those NVC notices which have been sent out up to June, 2011?

Are those NVC notices just going to rot for few years until the dates move substantially forward again?

Also, Mr. CO made a statement on January 24, 2012 that EB2 will be getting a spillover of 12,000 this year, or may be 11000 (1000 less) this year from EB1 as EB1 usage has been low.

Read this,

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2012/...nuary-19-2012/

It has not even been 2 months since he made that statement and today we hear him saying there is no spillover expected from EB-1. How come in less than 2 months his prediction went from 11,000 to 0?

I wonder if any immigration lawyer in that AILA meeting asked these questions to CO, the head of a highly incompetent organization called USCIS?

I guess I now may have to join qblogfan's league of CO bashing. :p

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I don't think NVC notices drive the dates. It is not even an indicator(neither lagging nor leading) as someone (I think Imdeng) mentions.

Jonty, you probably mean DOS at most of the places where you mentioned USCIS.

Although NVC fee notices are issued with a reasonable expectation of the PD getting current in a reasonably near future, it is not binding on DOS to make them current in any stipulated time-frame.

I may be completely off base here. Gurus please correct me if I am wrong.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

guys gals and gurus...

1. What % of total EB2 I cases are logged in trackitt? I ask this as most of our analysis is based on this data
2. According to Specs perm data figures a 2010 april applicant will have at least 60K (provided 75% applied in Eb2 and each perm ~= 2.1 485) applications pending before him... Is this assumption right?

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soggadu,

1. I would estimate around 9-10% for Primary applicants for filings since October 2011.

2. Taken from the beginning of FY2012, 60k sounds about right, including cases left from FY2011 and depending on exactly how many 2009/2010 cases there are. There will be a large pre-adjudicated backlog going into FY2013 whatever the real number.

Depressing Friday :(

The Department of State (DOS) advised today that the EB2 India and China category is likely to retrogress in the May or June 2012 Visa Bulletin. Charles Oppenheim, Chief, Visa Control and Reporting, provided this information at an AILA conference on March 16, 2012. Mr. Oppenheim projected that it will become necessary to retrogress the EB2 date back to approximately August 2007.

The EB2 cutoff set in the April 2012 Visa Bulletin, which is May 1, 2010, is not changed by Mr. Oppenheim's announcement. The changes will occur in the May and/or June Visa Bulletins. We will provide further analysis in an upcoming MurthyBulletin article.

F1 gives her OPT that H4 can't. In terms of H1 priority she can possibly still benefit from her US degree.

The downside of F1 is the compliance with SEVIS rules and all the bureacracy. Another reason for her to have F1 could be that if you ran out of status for whatever reason, you can switch to F2.

Just a few thoughts. Its your choice.

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Originally Posted by incridible

I am a silent follower of this forum and have immensely benefited by reading the posts and would appreciate your feedback on my situation.

Sorry for deviating from the subject.. but i will be very grateful to hear views from experts in this forum. Here is my situation. I have PD August 2010 and my wife is currently on H4. She is pursuing her masters and we were hoping that our dates would get current and decided to continue her education in h4 status. Now the dates are heading south is it a good option to apply for COS to F1 in order to avail OPT? She is likely to graduate in December 2012. I know trying for employment in h1 means she has to apply in 2014 qouta and wait till 2013 october to begin her employment. No employer would wait until then to employ her.. my assumption is masters qouta will be over by the time she graduates.

Do you think converting to F1 makes sense or stay in h4 complete education wait till dates get current (god knows when it will reach aug 2010 again). Please provide me some ideas and share your thoughts!

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Another problem with F1 is that it is not a dual-intent visa. When you apply for it you have to show that you have no intention to stay in USA after you finish your degree (which doesn't make much sense but that's how it is). So it might be problematic for your wife to get it as the application for green card shows an intent to remain in the USA..

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Originally Posted by incridible

I am a silent follower of this forum and have immensely benefited by reading the posts and would appreciate your feedback on my situation.

Sorry for deviating from the subject.. but i will be very grateful to hear views from experts in this forum. Here is my situation. I have PD August 2010 and my wife is currently on H4. She is pursuing her masters and we were hoping that our dates would get current and decided to continue her education in h4 status. Now the dates are heading south is it a good option to apply for COS to F1 in order to avail OPT? She is likely to graduate in December 2012. I know trying for employment in h1 means she has to apply in 2014 qouta and wait till 2013 october to begin her employment. No employer would wait until then to employ her.. my assumption is masters qouta will be over by the time she graduates.

Do you think converting to F1 makes sense or stay in h4 complete education wait till dates get current (god knows when it will reach aug 2010 again). Please provide me some ideas and share your thoughts!

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I dont think that is a problem....there are few people i know who applied for GC with F1. they all were dependents and not the primary for GC. Couple of them already got there GC's. I agree with Q's comments on Pro's and con's

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Originally Posted by andyst

Another problem with F1 is that it is not a dual-intent visa. When you apply for it you have to show that you have no intention to stay in USA after you finish your degree (which doesn't make much sense but that's how it is). So it might be problematic for your wife to get it as the application for green card shows an intent to remain in the USA..

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