EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Can we expect one more SO this year on Oct21 VB ...?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1366948108651925513

http://www.state.gov/briefing-with-c...nd-consulates/

I concur with others. Unless you are in a financial stressful situation - suck up the expense - and just spend the money.

If you are in a financially troubled situation then go ahead and do it yourself. IT is not too complicated. IMHO The real value of lawyer is not accuracy or knowledge in this case, the real value is simply having a lawyer stand by you.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by getsaby

Need RFE help, lawyer is asking $$$ to reply. This is what they have requested below, can anyone help me on how to go about it.

Do I have to write a cover letter, explaining about all points 1 through 4. Since I am with the same employer, should I just ignore point 1, or get the letter from my employer again.


1. The record establishes that you are the Principal Applicant of an Employment-Based (EB) Form 1-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status. On August 15, 2018, USCIS received your most recent Supplement J, Confirmation of Bona Fide Job Offer or Request for Job Portability Under INA Section 204(j), confirming the job offer with XYZ Corporation for the position of ABCD .

IF your intended permanent employment is different from the job offer specified in your most recent Supplement J, please submit a properly completed and signed Supplement J showing that the offer of intended permanent employment as stated in the Form 1-140 petition continues to exist or that you intend to port to a new offer of employment in the same or similar occupational classification as the job specified in the underlying Form 1-140.

2. For the record, please submit a properly completed, updated Form G-325A, Biographic Information form.

3. Please submit proof of your continuous employment authorization in the U.S. from June 22, 2020 to the present. Such evidence may include copies of
a) Employment Authorization Documents (Forms 1-688 or 1-766) granted to you by this Service;
b) Form 1-797 approval notices, showing you were granted status in an employment-authorized nonimmigrant classification; and/or
c) Copies of Form 1-94 Arrival/Departure Records showing you were admitted to the U.S. in an employment-authorized nonimmigrant status.

4. The validity of the most recent Form 1-693 (medical examination report) that you submitted to USCIS has expired. Please submit a new Form 1-693 completed by a designated civil surgeon to this office together with a copy of this notice. Including a copy of this notice with your Form 1-693 will facilitate matching the medical report with your file.


Thanks for your help!

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Can we expect one more SO this year on Oct21 VB ...?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1366948108651925513

http://www.state.gov/briefing-with-c...nd-consulates/

---

This is really interesting especially this paragraph "And finally, we understand the President?s very strong message, as laid out in his initial actions on immigration, in particular Executive Order 14012 on Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems. The State Department is committed to do everything we can to resolve the backlogs and complete the visa process as efficiently as possible within the process designed to secure our nation?s borders." Does this mean they are committed to moving dates ? TBH I could care less about receiving card in hand lol, more concerned about my son aging out in 2ish years as I am hoping that age is frozen when dates get current. However, it would obviously be great if they process cases as per that paragraph.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jackryan041815

This is really interesting especially this paragraph "And finally, we understand the President's very strong message, as laid out in his initial actions on immigration, in particular Executive Order 14012 on Restoring Faith in Our Legal Immigration Systems. The State Department is committed to do everything we can to resolve the backlogs and complete the visa process as efficiently as possible within the process designed to secure our nation?s borders." Does this mean they are committed to moving dates ? TBH I could care less about receiving card in hand lol, more concerned about my son aging out in 2ish years as I am hoping that age is frozen when dates get current. However, it would obviously be great if they process cases as per that paragraph.

---

I would like to see next months VB to see if DOS is actually going to aggressively move FA dates. I have not bought into to the 180 degree about turn yet. On the GSiskind's tweet, he had linked a CNN article on the immigration law status. It looks like there are two groups of thoughts (legislators) on house Dem side. The first set of congressman/woman wants to present the existing bills from the last congress (e.g., DREAM bill) and get them in before April 1st so that they can bypass the committee process . The second group is going for everything (read GCs for everyone in the country) stated in Pres JB's immigration bill outline and maybe more. Of course, if you go with the second set, it is not going to pass Senate and they will not have anything positive to show to constituents. Funny that in the entire process, legal immigration is not given that much importance. The big ticket items are concerning DACA and illegal immigration.

For the sake of back loggers, I hope they go with approach 1 to get something done than hogging news cycles for the next 6 months and end up getting defeated in the Senate. We have seen this movie many times where the Hero defeats the villain's (story presenting back loggers as villains taking jobs from Citizens) in the Climax.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Can we expect one more SO this year on Oct21 VB ...?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1366948108651925513

http://www.state.gov/briefing-with-c...nd-consulates/

---

75,000 vs 473,000 in 13 months must be only reason why the interviews are not being enforced.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AceMan

75,000 vs 473,000 in 13 months must be only reason why the interviews are not being enforced.

---

This is the snippet from the briefing:
By way of statistics, in January 2020 there were about 75,000 immigrant visa cases pending at the National Visa Center ready for interviews. Thirteen months later, in February 2021, there were 473,000 – about six to seven times greater.

I believe the 473K they are talking about is the NVC number and that doesn't include any of the AOS petitions filed after October in EB. I think in person interviews are mandatory for NVC cases. If Biden admin is prioritizing the NVC cases, I think we can expect very little spillover from FB next year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Transformer

This is the snippet from the briefing:
By way of statistics, in January 2020 there were about 75,000 immigrant visa cases pending at the National Visa Center ready for interviews. Thirteen months later, in February 2021, there were 473,000 – about six to seven times greater.

I believe the 473K they are talking about is the NVC number and that doesn't include any of the AOS petitions filed after October in EB. I think in person interviews are mandatory for NVC cases. If Biden admin is prioritizing the NVC cases, I think we can expect very little spillover from FB next year.

---

Help me understand how the numbers ballooned to 473 K in NVC when the embassies were closed for majority of the year? I am missing something here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AceMan

Help me understand how the numbers ballooned to 473 K in NVC when the embassies were closed for majority of the year? I am missing something here.

---

I am wondering the same but I am only quoting what he said.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Transformer

I am wondering the same but I am only quoting what he said.

---

because it's a pipeline from consulates to NVC. Consulates had 473K in the pipeline they feed to NVC. Even after they stopped taking in applications in person they emptied the pipeline into NVC

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Transformer

I think in person interviews are mandatory for NVC cases. If Biden admin is prioritizing the NVC cases, I think we can expect very little spillover from FB next year.

---

Yes Consular petition needs interview.

But just because NVC cases are prioritized, does not mean they will be able to consume the visas in 7 months that they used to do in 12 months. So there is going to be a non-zero spillover going to happen, how much will be the question. We got 120k+ spillover when everything shutdown half way into FY2020. I will be surprised if we don't get at least 100k, if not more for FY2022 unless they change the law.

Hi Gurus,

I am a long time reader, first time poster.

My PD is Nov 3 2010 EB2. I was not able to file for AOS in Oct because I changed my job (twice) and the PERM from the latest employer is not approved yet. PERM was filed in July 2020, I am hoping to get it approved in this month (trackit data). I believe, I will be able to file the I-140 in premium(or am I wrong.)

My question is should I file in EB3 or EB2.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Yes Consular petition needs interview.

But just because NVC cases are prioritized, does not mean they will be able to consume the visas in 7 months that they used to do in 12 months. So there is going to be a non-zero spillover going to happen, how much will be the question. We got 120k+ spillover when everything shutdown half way into FY2020. I will be surprised if we don't get at least 100k, if not more for FY2022 unless they change the law.

---

Probably a naive question, who conducts those interviews for consular petitions? USCIS field offices in US or consulars in various consulates?

How does that impact AOS processing for this year?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by aGCHopefull

Probably a naive question, who conducts those interviews for consular petitions? USCIS field offices in US or consulars in various consulates?

How does that impact AOS processing for this year?

---

consulates abroad conduct it and that's why the FB visas are going unused because consulates are still not operating normal.

It has ZERO impact on AOS processing because AOS is USCIS thing, CP is DOS thing. Unused CP FB visas will benefit EB quota next year. That will be a huge benefit to EB as a whole (just like this year).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

consulates abroad conduct it and that's why the FB visas are going unused because consulates are still not operating normal.

It has ZERO impact on AOS processing because AOS is USCIS thing, CP is DOS thing. Unused CP FB visas will benefit EB quota next year. That will be a huge benefit to EB as a whole (just like this year).

---

Thanks Q for explaining. So, as consulates are opening up and, if they prioritize CP interviews, they would start consuming FB Visa for current FY. That would result in lesser SO for EB next FY. As others have mentioned, that would depend on at how much capacity they operate on going forward for rest of this FY. right?

Hi Guys - sorry one more ac21 related question: can you do an internal job change within the same company within 180 days of AOS filing?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bones20

Hi Guys - sorry one more ac21 related question: can you do an internal job change within the same company within 180 days of AOS filing?

---

Yes that would be safe as long as it is in a related function. Eg: moving from one engineering group to another . Reallocation of resources happen all the while at companies and this would be no different . If you are getting promoted from say Staff to Sr Staff Engg along with that , it would be very safe to .
Best of luck

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Moveon

Yes that would be safe as long as it is in a related function. Eg: moving from one engineering group to another . Reallocation of resources happen all the while at companies and this would be no different . If you are getting promoted from say Staff to Sr Staff Engg along with that , it would be very safe to .
Best of luck

---

Its not a promotion but a lateral move.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

consulates abroad conduct it and that's why the FB visas are going unused because consulates are still not operating normal.

It has ZERO impact on AOS processing because AOS is USCIS thing, CP is DOS thing. Unused CP FB visas will benefit EB quota next year. That will be a huge benefit to EB as a whole (just like this year).

---

Do you see, it will be more than ~120K this year during Sep-VB and if it happen can we guess the EB2/3 to cross 2013 at least ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by aGCHopefull

Thanks Q for explaining. So, as consulates are opening up and, if they prioritize CP interviews, they would start consuming FB Visa for current FY. That would result in lesser SO for EB next FY. As others have mentioned, that would depend on at how much capacity they operate on going forward for rest of this FY. right?

---

Capacity, policy and executive push. This administration is determined to undo negative effects of prior administration as well as COVID. That means they will do everything they can do reduce backlogs from last year. How much can be done remains to be seen since they also need to consider, above else, their own employee well being (i mean consulate employees).

So the more favorable conditions arise, fully expect DOS / USCIS to work overdrive to reduce backlog here and abroad. One negative side effect on EB of course is that it will reduce FB->EB spillover. But I do expect significant visas to EB next year as well.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Do you see, it will be more than ~120K this year during Sep-VB and if it happen can we guess the EB2/3 to cross 2013 at least ?

---

2021 FY would be a windfall year like never before. We had 261,000 visas in EB where a huge majority will be available for Eb India due to the continued covid situation. EB1 India had more than 30 K approved 140's one year back. All of them appeared to be cleared. A similar numbers applied to EB2 has the potential for dates till May 2011 this FY.

For 2022 FY, you have to count the embassies reopening and the demand it going to bring in. If you have covid conditions of now still hanging on till early 2022, EB2 I can progress max to 2013 or 2014 depending on how many downgraded.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Do you see, it will be more than ~120K this year during Sep-VB and if it happen can we guess the EB2/3 to cross 2013 at least ?

---

We can say definitively probably around end of April.

AceMan, trying to understand your statement - assuming another 100K+ spillover is available in FY22, and with minimal downgrades, where do you think EB-I will end up? (I guess EB2 and EB3 India will have same/similar FA dates in the future)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AceMan

2021 FY would be a windfall year like never before. We had 261,000 visas in EB where a huge majority will be available for Eb India due to the continued covid situation. EB1 India had more than 30 K approved 140's one year back. All of them appeared to be cleared. A similar numbers applied to EB2 has the potential for dates till May 2011 this FY.

For 2022 FY, you have to count the embassies reopening and the demand it going to bring in. If you have covid conditions of now still hanging on till early 2022, EB2 I can progress max to 2013 or 2014 depending on how many downgraded.

---

Thanks. If we get similar or more for FY22 on OCT VB do you see a chance for Eb2/3 touching 2013-Dec... as Final action date...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

We can say definitively probably around end of April.

---

Thanks. Can I please ask how much guesstimate SO will allow EB2/3 to reach Dec-2013...?

EB1 is expected to be current till October 2022 for the entire world. Whatever happens beyond that depends on how the economy of the US moves over next 18 months.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Thanks. If we get similar or more for FY22 on OCT VB do you see a chance for Eb2/3 touching 2013-Dec... as Final action date...

---

I want to see the usage for 3rd and 4th quarter of 2021 before going to FY22 as it will have the cascading effect.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Thanks. Can I please ask how much guesstimate SO will allow EB2/3 to reach Dec-2013...?

---

Sorry I no longer do any of these calculations manually.

Others on the forum do manual calculations. Perhaps they can answer.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bones20

Its not a promotion but a lateral move.

---

As I said it should not be any issue as long as it is within the same org. Eg One Engineering VP's org to another . As long as you/company can keep the job description within what was filed for the I-140 you are safe . Its very easy when you are in the same company for two reasons
1. The RFE if ever issued typically asks for a new Supp-J only if you changed employers . In your case you are in the same company, so you will not have to respond to it .
2. The USCIS realizes that our job functions cannot be the same for years at end just because we were born in India. Your perm.I-140 I am sure was was filed with a generic description that would give you the flexibility to switch fields . You just need 50% overlap in the worst case .

Go for it man. Don't live in fear.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Thanks. If we get similar or more for FY22 on OCT VB do you see a chance for Eb2/3 touching 2013-Dec... as Final action date...

---

Here is what I presume would be the status at the end of FY2021. I will visit back to see how close these back of the napkin calculations are

With down port as 20% in 2010
and
3 down port scenarios- 20%, 25% and 30% in 2011

----------------------------------------|-------|------20%----------25-------------30--------|-----------------
EB3 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-Apr-11 * 15-MAr-11
EB2 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-May-11 * 1-Jun-11
----------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------
* Above analysis does not take for account any visa wasted by USICS
* This is without adding any spillover from EB1
* For every 1000 spillover from add 15 days to EB2

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...on-plan-473475

"A dismal whip count came back this week showing House leaders don’t yet have the votes to pass the bill on the floor."

"Top House Democrats have promised to put key immigration bills on the floor this month — but President Joe Biden’s sweeping overhaul won’t be one of them."

"So now Democrats are moving ahead with an alternative plan: Move the Biden bill through committee while the full House votes on more targeted immigration legislation that already enjoys broad caucus support."

"Democrats were already planning to take up some of their most popular immigration proposals in the coming weeks — one to protect the undocumented population known as Dreamers and another to reform the system for farmworkers. Both have bipartisan support, including strong backing from the CHC and CPC, and could soon see floor votes in the Senate."

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mr00us

Here is what I presume would be the status at the end of FY2021. I will visit back to see how close these back of the napkin calculations are

With down port as 20% in 2010
and
3 down port scenarios- 20%, 25% and 30% in 2011

----------------------------------------|-------|------20%----------25-------------30--------|-----------------
EB3 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-Apr-11 * 15-MAr-11
EB2 prediction ( by end of fy2021) 1-May-11 * 15-May-11 * 1-Jun-11
----------------------------------------|-------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------
* Above analysis does not take for account any visa wasted by USICS
* This is without adding any spillover from EB1
* For every 1000 spillover from add 15 days to EB2

---

Thanks. Close to 40-50K applications downgraded from Eb2-EB3 for SRC. Not sure how they are distributed across 2010/11/12/13/14 and some of the applications gone to Nebraska. Not sure if this guesstimate number brings any impact.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AceMan

I want to see the usage for 3rd and 4th quarter of 2021 before going to FY22 as it will have the cascading effect.

---

Guys only challenge is timelines in whivh USCIS is working there are plenty of numbers available in Q3, q4 in 2021 and Q3,Q4 2022.

If receipting , biometrics, interview waiver is not done usage will be less in 2021. Hope it will be high.in 2022 q3,q4.

If they can allocate numbers and issue GC 6months later wastage will be less.

Hello

Does any one know, is there a time limit on how long we can keep signed I693 form with us.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ak7419

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...on-plan-473475

"A dismal whip count came back this week showing House leaders don?t yet have the votes to pass the bill on the floor."

"Top House Democrats have promised to put key immigration bills on the floor this month ? but President Joe Biden?s sweeping overhaul won?t be one of them."

"So now Democrats are moving ahead with an alternative plan: Move the Biden bill through committee while the full House votes on more targeted immigration legislation that already enjoys broad caucus support."

"Democrats were already planning to take up some of their most popular immigration proposals in the coming weeks ? one to protect the undocumented population known as Dreamers and another to reform the system for farmworkers. Both have bipartisan support, including strong backing from the CHC and CPC, and could soon see floor votes in the Senate."

---

I would not hold out hope for any sweeping immigration reforms. Pretty early into the Biden administration they have showed that they fold pretty easily on the very few things they promised (apparent by Covid relief bill). The $2000 check became $1400, to be sent out immediately became 3-4 months from taking charge, additional means testing included which further restricts who can avail the money. $15 minimum wage gone for good. This gives a pretty good picture as to how immigration will be handled. It's on us to keep up the pressure.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by getsaby

Hello

Does any one know, is there a time limit on how long we can keep signed I693 form with us.

---

If you are submitting with in 60 days of the I-485 filing then its valid for 2 years. otherwise each subsequent I-693 is valid for 1 year from the Surgeon's signature

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by raradhya

If you are submitting with in 60 days of the I-485 filing then its valid for 2 years. otherwise each subsequent I-693 is valid for 1 year from the Surgeon's signature

---

Per USCIS Policy Manual, if you submit I-693 after 01NOV2018, it is valid for 2 years. If you submitted before 01NOV2018, it is expired as of now.

Form I-693 Submitted to USCIS on or After November 1, 2018

When did civil surgeon sign?	I-693 retains evidentiary value through
No more than 60 days before applicant filed underlying benefit application with USCIS	2 years from date civil surgeon signed I-693
After applicant filed benefit application with USCIS	2 years from date civil surgeon signed I-693
More than 60 days before applicant filed benefit application with USCIS	N/A ? I-693 not valid at time applicant submits I-693 to USCIS

Looks like guys at the below link are crawling the USCIS status pages to get data. For e.g., according to them, for 21% of the I-485 cases applied in October 2020, fingerprints have been applied. And for cases applied in Jan 2020, only 20% have gotten their green cards - which feels pretty low.

https://www.greencardly.com/#/I-485

Guys i worked for a WITCH company who applied GC in EB2 Feb 11,2011 pd with I140 approved in 2011. If EB2 goes past 2011 Feb if WITCH company is willing to take me back, what are the documents i would need from them(cts) to apply I485, if my dates become current say in 3-4 visa bulletins.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

Thanks. Can I please ask how much guesstimate SO will allow EB2/3 to reach Dec-2013...?

---

I would think we would need two things for that to happen before oct-2022
- utilization of spill over for FY2021 should be complete or close to complete. We will likely know about this only after Oct-2021.
- Spill over for 2022 should be along simlar lines as the spill over we saw for Fy2021. This is probable, but we will need to wait a bit to get confirmed numbers after Oct 2021.

So in short, although its possible for dates to reach Dec2013 by Sept 2022, we will have much more clarity about this sometime in Oct 2021.

I would think EB2 likely is going to move faster once the FAD reaches july 2011, as most people would be in EB3 queue after that. Although theoretically dates should move together, we have rarely seen that happen in the past, because many people are unwilling/unable to switch between lines for various reason.