I hope. I hope. I hope.
I hope dates move ahead substantially.
I hope there is no KLPD this time. Just dont seem to have strength to face it :D
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I hope. I hope. I hope.
I hope dates move ahead substantially.
I hope there is no KLPD this time. Just dont seem to have strength to face it :D
Wow, this is really good news if it actually holds.
Any chances of them just making it Current to accept more applications, since with these extra 12000 (6 mnths) and approx 20000 (for the whole year) from EB1 we should definitely be able to cross July 07.
Lol your comment made me laugh out loud.Good analogy (wink ) . Anywaz I do hope as well they move substantially.
If in the scenario they do move ,what would be an educated guess for these questions.
1.Will the dates be stuck at July 2007 wall for a long time.
2.I am assuming porting will increase with the movement of dates ( 6K number seems reasonable but more and more EB3 folks might be convinced it is better to port with the movement )
3.For people with dates in the timeframe July 2007-Dec 2007 would it take more than 2 yrs to see a few months movement ?
:( Personally I do not beleive they can make it current given the criticism they got during the 2007 fiasco.
Thanks again
Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
Q,
You always said EB1 is a big variable. It seems now (per AILA) there is going to be mid yr spillover before the Jul spillover.
Regards,
Yank
If EB1 visa usage has decreased by 50%, then we might expect the PDs for EB2-I/C to move into early 2007 during Sep'11, right? I will be happy if Ron's forecast comes true but in the past I have seen his comments to be a bit too strong and have been way off from what really happened. Hope he is proven correct this time!
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
There are two versions at least... 50% demand reduction and 12K full year FD and actually a third one that say 24K full year FD.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
If 50% EB1 reduction is true it will blow past Jul 2007. Because tehn teh SOFAD becomes 8K(EB5)+20K(eb1)+9K (EB2ROW) + 6K(EB2IC)-3K (Porting) = 40K. It will almost certainly make teh dates current. "WHEN" is a bit of a question of policy. The way it will work is .... if the policy is to allow FD to EB3 then the dates will be made current close to Sep 2011. Otherwise if the polciy is to use SOFAD in EB2 itself for 2008 and beyond. They may need to make it current in May itself. Otherwise its too late.
The million dollar question is whether the 50% reduction is true? I do not know .... have been hearing so many different versions that its difficult to judge.
Guess will have to wait till the dust settles.
EB1 absolutely has been a big variable. Mid year spillover will be very interesting. But then one would expects dates moving quite fast right in may itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Ravi you used the word that came to my mind but didn't use it :-) Hopefully it won't be teh situation you "vividly" describe.Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
At the same time what CO has said is still fairly unclear. So need to avoid irrational exhuberance (hope i spelt it right!).
If its a 12K FD for the year, then also I think its a good news, right? That means EB2-I/C will be getting 12K visas from EB1 whereas it got almost nothing from EB1 in the previous years. With a 12K FD, what will be an estimate for the SOFAD? It will go past 20K, probably it will be in the range of 24 - 25K (but I might not be accurate here).
Q,
I think your earlier post already answers my question on SOFAD where the calculation is done with 50% EB1 reduction, i.e. EB1 usage of 20K. So the 3 possible interpretations of EB1 usage are: i) 12K FD for the year, ii) 50% reduction in EB1 usage, i.e. 20K FD for the year and iii) 24K FD for the year. Even if we consider the most pessimistic one (i.e. 12K FD), then also the SOFAD seems to be around 8K(EB5) + 12K(eb1) + 9K (EB2ROW) + 6K(EB2IC) - 3K (Porting) = 32K and this seems to be sufficient to clear most of the pending cases up to July - Aug'07. I think the above data doesn't consider people with PDs prior to July - Aug'07 who missed filing and I am not sure how big that number will be. Is there any serious flaw in my assumption?
Thanks!
PCH
I think you are mostly right. But some people earlier today have questions whether that 12 itself is pure EB1 or it includes EB5 as well.
I think its the former. And so yes I agree w you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Thanks Q.
One more naive question in all this speculation. Can EB2ROW give more than 9k visa as the demand for EB1 is low and people are not porting from EB2 to Eb1?
Regards,
Yank
pch053,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
That is pretty much how I am looking at it, as well.
I'm using 8.4k from EB5 + 16k from EB1 + 8k from EB2 + 5.6k normal EB2-IC allocation to give SOFAD of 38k.
As headwinds, I'm allowing 6k Porting, since the Cut Off Dates have moved much further and I've also allowed 2k for PWMB applications.
That gives 38 - 6 - 2 = 30k to reduce the backlog.
Using the DOS Demand Data (as that is more optimistic than USCIS Inventory) then the FY in October started at 34k for China & India.
30k isn't quite enough to clear everything, but it should be sufficient to move it into June 2007 on the above assumptions.
There is probably sufficient uncertaintly in those figures to reach the end of the backlog in the best case, but it requires more from EB1 and possibly from EB2 as well.
It occurs to me that if the backlog is nearly cleared at the end of FY2011, then the VO will then have a lot of time in FY2012 to move the Cut Off Dates forward in a controlled manner to generate new Demand. If it doesn't appear for a few months, they can simply allocate more Visas later in the year.
No huge forward movement would be necessary.
First I will acknolwedge Spec's point that no huge movement (i.e. making the category current) may be necessary. I actually I do agree with that too. The reason being its a matter of policy whether you do want to admit those many into 485 q or not. So yes even that is a not such an insignificant possibility.
However I would imagine that there are not such huge policy objectives tied to keep people waiting. Rather there are good policy objectives tied through business community that these people get to file at least 485 so that they can get EAD soon and the uncertainty goes away. Besides doing that also allows USCIS sufficient time to adjudicate cases and enjoy fees.
yank, I wouldn't worry about EB2ROW to EB1 porting at all. EB2ROW has been current so there is not issue. The real question is - is there significant EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting? Again my gut feel tells me no. But I do not have solid data to back it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
This is a very minor point in the above analysis. For the PWMB cases, even if people become eligible to submit their I485, they might not get their approvals by Sep'11. For example, people submitting their I485 around May - July might get their approval past Sep'11 (~avg. turnaround time is 4 months). Not sure what effect (if at all any) this will have on the movement of EB2-I/C PDs.
Finally, I will be curious to know why there is a sudden drop in EB1 usage. I doubt there has been any change in EB1A and EB1B; in fact, my lawyer mentioned to me that more people are giving EB1A a try and I personally have seen a couple of average cases getting through but still I don't feel these are significant in the overall number crunching. So, the usage of EB1C is probably the one which has dipped a lot this year; it was roughly ~60% of total EB1 usage in the past years and also one of the most abused categories. The reduction in usage might be due to more stringent criteria on behalf of USCIS or it might be that fewer employers are trying this option.
This is the posting of the EB2 movement news in murthy.com: http://www.murthy.com/news/n_eb2a11.html
It clearly says that the 12K FD is from EB1 but its not clear whether the 12K spillover is expected for the entire FY11 year or is it the number of spillovers in 1st and 2nd quarter (meaning if one extrapolates it to 4 quarters, it will be 24K). So the FD range from EB1 is between 12K - 24K and Spec's assumption of 16K in the SOFAD calculation sounds quite reasonable to me.
pch053,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Thanks for your very considered reply.
I had tried to take the lag time into consideration, but I admit it is a something of a guess. The calculation was based on a fairly significant forward movement in the May VB, which would give just enough time for new applications to be adjudicated before the end of September.
It is also quite possible that the extra visas will be spread over several months. That probably is the more likely scenario. In that case, I agree that the number of PWMB who could get approval this FY would decrease.
My rough calculation is subject to plus or minus several thousand anyway.
I too would love to know the breakdown of the reduction in EB1 by sub category. Like you, my gut says it is more in EB1C than EB1A/B. It is also possible that the denial % for EB1A has also increased.
Interesting stuff!
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Considering all odds, at what point can we expect DOS move the PD post July 2007? In my opinion if DOS move EB2IC PD to July 2007 they will have enough applications (not including porting and PWMB) to use-up all number for FY 2011(assuming our SOFAD calculations for FY 2011)
On the contrary, if they are going to add 12000 visas into the original total available visas (roughly 43000), would they not push dates forward by as many months as these 12000 visas would be enough? I mean, this situation is perhaps not same or similar as that of spillover that happens during Q4.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
TB,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
As OP mentioned if they just go by 12,000 Spill Over from EB1 to EB2 but no other SOFAD then dates should move to Sept 2006 based on USCIS inventory if not to Dec 2006 based on DOS demand data.
veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
That is a very good question, which i don't think anyone knows the answer to. I suspect everybody has different views.
The best I can do is throw open some discussion points, withhout giving a real answer.
The first thing that occurs to me is that this acceleration might catch the VO off guard.
Prior to the announcement about EB1 numbers, I suspect they thought they had another year to plan for this eventuality. As part of that, I think they were probably (or should have been) pushing USCIS for some breakdown of approved I-140s by Country and PD. That would have allowed the VO to plan forward movement of the Cut Off Dates beyond August 2007.
Assuming that doesn't exist yet, then the VO may be shooting in the dark to a certain extent.
The VO mandate is not to waste Visas, but, at the same time, it is also to set the Cut Off Dates at a level that just achieves that aim.
If the VO has any thoughts that they will run out of available cases to allocate visas to in FY2011, they may decide to push the Cut Off Dates beyond August 2007 in FY2011 itself.
I think we all realize timing is the issue. Any movement can't be made at the last moment, otherwise there is no time to close out the cases. Moving the dates to the end of 2007 would give a sizable buffer.
Whether the VO feels the need to do that or not, moving into FY2012 is a different ball game. The VO then have the luxury of time on their side. Porting cases alone might be enough to utilize the 250 / month early in FY2012. If not, the numbers can be caught up later in the year.
At some point next year, the Cut Off Dates need to move forward enough to account for Spillover in FY2012. Possibly they will wait until around the end of March 2012 to gauge Demand in other categories, as they did this year.
I feel the VO don't want to see the return of cycles of forward movement followed by retrogression, as we saw recently with many of the Family Based Categories.
The case against that is the fact that the VO did that for FB at all. The situation may be different for EB, due to the vastly different split between USCIS / Consular Processing.
Of course, they may just say "Oh, the heck to it!" and move the Cut Off Dates way forward and then retrogress the Dates back again.
The other option would be to set the EB2 Cut Off Dates where the VO think it will reach (e.g. June 2007). If they get it slightly wrong and USCIS don't provide sufficient EB2 cases, the Visas could Fall Down to EB3-ROW. The mandate not to waste Visas would still be fulfilled.
A one line answer would be "Who knows!" although discussing it is fun and thought provoking.
I would be interested in your own thoughts and the reasons why it might happen.
veni,
Remember there is still ROW EB2 spillover (may be 9K) available over and above that 12K. So the dates will move quite past Sep 06.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am swinging between DOS and USCIS demand data/pending inventory and EB1 Spill Over VS total SOFAD as of April 2011.
Assuming that DOS uses their demand data to set VB based on USCIS usage history for the first 2Q's, my guesstimate is they will move dates at least into 2007 in May VB.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If DOS is going to use total SOFAD available as of April 2011, total SOFAD to EB2I&C will be (from the first 2 quarters)
EB1 - 12k
Eb2(ROW) -9k
Eb5 -(4k)
+ May 2011 allocation for EB2IC
Total SOFAD~=26k
Based on DOS EBI&C demand before Jan 01, 2007 is only 17,400 and before August 01, 2007 is 32,675. so they should be looking in between Jan 01, 2007- Aug 01, 2007.
I know Teddy has been very busy recently.
I thought it might be useful to republish his last published table, since it is now so far back in the thread.
I hope he doesn't mind. Given the accelerated timescale, Teddy may well be revising it slightly. I look forward to the latest version.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
We should exclude PWMB numbers from the cumulative totals when talking about DOS demand data used to set the PD for the monthly Visa Bulletin!
Guys,
An interesting perspective to the Kazarian case is published on murthy.com. Check this out: http://murthy.com/bulletin.html (VOL. XVII, no. 13; Apr 2011, week 1
Posted : 01.Apr.2011)
We had discussed Kazarian case a few weeks back. I think that the Kazarian case is the reason why these is such a significant scrutiny and 50% drop in approvals. What's encouraging is that the drop is confirmed from two sources - one is CO and the other is trackitt. The match is so well that it is quite credible.
I am fairly convinced that the 12K is not only pure EB1 but it is in fact not fulll year number.
The 50% drop when applied to EB1 full year quota would be 20K. So if EB1 alone will give 20K then this is how total SOFAD could reach:
8K (EB5)+20K(EB1) + 8K EB2ROW + 6K EB2IC - 4K porting = 38K. That's almost enough to clear the backlog through Jul 2007. Will update the model over weekend and post. But this will bring an end to the misery of a lot of EB2 folks .... those who have filed 485 and those who haven't.
The worst case scenario seems to be that EB5 will again see a rise and EB1 picks up speed. The first probably has a risk of 4-5K max. The second one has a risk of max 8K (given that 12K is already in the bag). The combined risk wouldn't be more than 10K and hence will easily reach the dates into Jan 07. Stay tuned for an update to the model over weekend.
Do we have any more insights on how the EB2-ROW consumption is this year as compared to the previous years. For example, can we extrapolate EB2-ROW data from trackitt approvals, i.e. comparing # of 2011 approvals vs. # of 2010 approvals. Not sure, whether there is enough EB2-ROW representation in trackitt so that we have a reliable and big enough sample size. Looking forward your new model/prediction!
Hello, My EB-2 I priority date is Dec 2006 and I filed 485 in Jul 2007. My case was transferred in 2009 at NBC. Where I had an interview and every thing was in order and a visa number was requested but since the priority date was not current it was not issued. Subsequently my case was transferred back to TSC in Feb and I received that notification. Yesterday I received the following message : -
"Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Initial Review
The I485 APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS was transferred and is now being processed at a USCIS office. You will be notified by mail when a decision is made, or if the office needs something from you. If you move while this case is pending, please use our Change of Address online tool to update your case with your new address or call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step, USCIS initiates the background checks of the applicant/petitioner and identifies issues that may need to be addressed either during an interview or by asking the applicant/petitioner to submit additional information or documentation. USCIS reviews the applicant's/petitioner's criminal history, determines if there are national security concerns that need to be addressed, and reviews the application/petition for fraud indicators
If you have filed an I-485, I-589, I-751, N-400, I-90, I-821, I-131 or I-765, you can expect to receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints and/or photographs taken. The timing of your appointment is determined by the number of applicants ahead of you that also need a biometric appointment. We try to schedule biometric appointments as quickly as possible and in most cases you will receive your appointment notice within 30 days of submitting your application. We will send your appointment notice approximately 14 days ahead of your scheduled appointment. It is important that you keep this appointment. If absolutely necessary, you can request that your appointment be rescheduled however, please be aware that rescheduling may delay the processing of your application. Please follow the instructions on your appointment notice if you need to reschedule. Occasionally, you may receive an appointment notice to appear at an Application Support Center to have your fingerprints taken when you have filed a form other than those listed above. In these situations, you may receive your appointment notice more than 30 days after submitting your application or petition.
If you have questions or concerns about your application or the case status results
listed above, or if you have not received a decision from USCIS within the current
processing time listed*, please contact USCIS Customer Service at (800) 375-5283."
My question is why did the message not say that every thing is in order and we will issue you a visa once your priority date is current. Did other people with similar situation also received this message or was it different for them?
Thanks in advance.
pch,
I have been charting that exact data, but it is somewhat inconclusive.
If you look at the total raw data, then EB2-ROW (excluding M &P) is running at 89% of the FY2010 figures. That would give around 22k for the year when extrapolated. Prior to March, they were running at c. 23.5k and it does not need much of a burst of approvals to resume that level.
However October figures are always slightly problematic, since they may contain approvals where the Visa was actually allocated from the previous year's allocation, but not approved until a date in the current FY.
October approvals in FY2010 were much higher than in FY2011. If you exclude October, FY2011 approvals Nov - March are 110% of of the FY2010 level.
On the other hand, FY2011 had a surge in January.
In FY2010 there was a surge of EB2-ROW approvals in June, July & August, followed by relatively few in September. Will that happen again in FY2011?
It is quite difficult to forecast when the approvals are "lumpy".
The raw data is shown below. It is Primary approvals only, adjusted for Country of Chargeability etc. I hope you find it useful.
----------- EB2-ROW ----
------- FY2010 - FY2011
Oct ----- 115 ----- 70
Nov ------ 34 ----- 27
Dec ------ 40 ----- 32
Jan ------ 25 ----- 49
Feb ------ 23 ----- 25
Mar ------ 31 ----- 35
Apr ------ 38
May ------ 33
Jun ------ 51
Jun ------ 58
Aug ------ 46
Sep ------ 21
Tot ----- 515 ---- 238
PCH (& Spec)
Here is some data to think about for EB2 ROW.
Trackitt shows 13% YoY reduction in approvals. However it shows 23% reduction in 485 receipts. Since the surge already happened for ROW last year. The chances for another 485 surge are less. So full year ROW approvals will be about 15-20% less compared to last year. Here is how it could play at 20% less approvals.
2010 2011
EB Quota 150000 140000
EB2 Quota 42900 40040
EB2 ROW(M+P) Quota 36900 34040
Approved 27500 22000 20% reduction
FA 9400 12040
So one can see that at 20% less approvals for EB2 ROW teh FA to EB2IC could actually increase to 12K this year.
But it is a good idea to be conservative and say that the FA will be same as last year i.e. 9K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Q,
I actually agree to a certain extent.
pch asked about the FY2010 vs, FY2011 comparison, so I provided the figures.
If approvals were linear, it would be extremely useful. However they are not. The lumpy nature of approvals leads to wide error margins and with 6 months still to go, it encompasses everything from increased approvals to reduced approvals.
At this point, such an approach has limited value, especially as the situations pertaining to each year may be different (as you pointed out).
The Q2 PERM figures should be available shortly. They "may" provide some additional information and insight into what is going to happen this year. If nothing else, they provide a much larger number base.
Spec
You are right. Thats why it can't be taken to the bank immediately.
But somehow I think the probability of another ROW EB2 surge is relatively low. And the probability of that surge turning into approvals is lower.
Because the labors will then have to work their way up into 140 and then 485 and everything that goes with it.
When is the PERM data due? ... that will be interesting to watch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Guys check this out : RonGothcher Forum Link
(read the 4th post)
Ron's firm received fee bill(Consular Process NVC) for someone with priority date of Sep 2007 !!!
Nice hints of whats in store next 4 months !!! :)
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Not as soon as I had initially thought.
I downloaded the Q1 file on Feb 15, which was 6 weeks after the end of Q1. So I guess the Q2 figures won't be available until something like May 15.
Prevailing Wage Data was a couple of weeks later.
Q & Spec,
Thanks for the detailed analysis on EB2-ROW; with the data available, this is probably the best we can do now. I think it will be reasonably safe to assume in all our calculations that EB2-ROW will be in and around the vicinity of EB2-ROW usage from last year with an allowance of 10% 15% (either more or less); this will probably translate to 3K - 4K visas.
Sushterman Law Firm Update on EB2 VISA AVAILABILTY FOR MAY:
EB-2 Visa Availability – Charlie Oppenheim, Chief, Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, informed AILA of a dramatic reduction in the use of EB-1 numbers. He stated:
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”
According to our calculations, EB-2 priority dates for India and China may advance not just weeks or months, but years!
Guys,
My PD is EB2 India Oct 22 2007. We are planning for having a kid and i am wondering if it is a better idea to get done with any vaccines along with medical report. Also, do we need to get any vaccination done for applying for 485? Please let me know...
Thanks
Sogg
Definitely we can expect significant PD movement in May based on the information and source, but not years based on the inventory and preadjudicated cases!Quote:
Originally Posted by alex99
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree some extent to your comment but i believe all ROW labors approved and eligible for EB2 on or before June 30, 2011 will have a chance to use numbers from FY 2011.
Q I believe we will have higher spillover from EB2 ROW this year the Trackitt trend shows that utilization is down to 60% of last year and Trackitt is fairly good about EB2 ROW.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Spec I will put my modified predictions soon; I feel that there is a very good chance of us hitting Jul - Aug 2007 this year if the May VB news is true.