Kanmani, Won't the consulate return the visa number in the same month of the interview if visa is not granted? Or is EB and FB consular processing done differently?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
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Kanmani, Won't the consulate return the visa number in the same month of the interview if visa is not granted? Or is EB and FB consular processing done differently?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I understand any kind of wastage is not good.
If we apply the same analogy to EB2-I demand numbers, what would be the likely drop outs from ' documentarily qualified' people. I am sure there would be quite a few from 2007 and from 2008. How does USISC know this. For eg. if a person has a pending i-485 in 2007 and a demand number in EB2-I but gone back . Is it mandatory to send drop out letters?. or does IBIS sort out this automatically or triggered only when PD is current?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
By law, they should return the unused visa number the following month, but in practice, it is up to the discretion of the consulates whether to surrender and reapply OR to hold the number and wait for the decision time. Some follow the rule, some may not. More over, consulates cannot use the previous years' visa number as granted.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
Spec, I agree with you , CP is a big problem for Chinese, as common people, they have even more responsibilities other than ROW like to get clearance from their government to leave the country . This was shared by my neighbour, while on a discussion about American citizenship, she told that , she must surrender all her property to the government to become other country's citizen.
There is only one trigger that tells the USCIS that the case is "lost" and that is a revoked I140 or I485. if the sponsoring company does not do that, then I don't think there's any way for USCIS to know this... even when the person is current (unless there's some form of RFE).Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
In the past, we had used a term called "demand destruction" to capture some of those lost cases & cases where ppl got laid off. There might still be some of that but I don't remember the factor Q and Spec used to estimate demand or if it is still valid.
Small nugget - Fragomen released a bulletin article on mar 1 stating the potential impacts of the sequester which may impact porting.
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Executive Summary
DHS, DOL and the State Department have not yet released specific plans for dealing with across-the-board budget cuts, but immigration processing could be delayed if a budget compromise is not reached in Congress.
As has been widely reported in the media, across-the-board funding cuts are set to take effect today at U.S. government agencies unless Congress can reach a compromise on the federal budget. The Departments of Homeland Security, State and Labor are all subject to cuts, but have not yet specified how their immigration processing operations would be affected. If funding reductions take place, employers and foreign nationals could see delays in adjudications, border inspections and visa issuance.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services is primarily funded by filing fees and may see the fewest effects if sequester takes place, though it is subject to budget cuts to some degree. Customs and Border Protection is expected to be among the hardest hit among DHS operations. Immigration and Customs Enforcement this week released some low-risk foreign nationals from detention facilities, citing looming budget cuts.
At the State Department, officials have already warned that consular services like visa processing might be delayed. Labor Department functions – including PERM, labor condition application (LCA) and prevailing wage operations – are not funded by fees and could also face delays due to cuts.
Even if sequester is avoided, there remains the threat of a government shutdown later in March when a stopgap government funding measure expires.
What This Means for Employers
The budget sequester comes as employers are preparing for the FY 2014 H-1B cap filing season, which begins April 1. Though by no means certain, cap-related processing could see the most immediate impact if cuts take place -- in particular, the processing of LCAs at DOL. The LCA is an essential component of every H-1B case and must be obtained before a petition is filed with USCIS. Employers should continue to work with their Fragomen professionals to file LCAs as soon as possible, but should be prepared for possible delays if the budget impasse is not resolved.
Fragomen is closely monitoring the agencies and will provide updates as developments occur.
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Some of the points that I read from various websites w.r.t CP ( There is no Government document available)
After NVC fees is paid, a parcel (documents) will be sent to the applicant. The applicant can delay the consular interview for one year from the day of receipt of the parcel , provided he submits valid reason for the delay.
On the day of the interview the applicant is given a clear verdict, pass or fail.
If fail, he is eligible for re-interview without new application, fees etc within one year.
If pass, he is stamped with immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months, within that he must enter the US to get his physical GC. Otherwise the immigrant visa is not valid meaning the visa number is wasted.
I am really confused with the time limit ( 1 year interview time 1 year appeal time), though we all know NVC sends fee notices well ahead. As S said, we will ever know how they operate.
I have heard from friends that there have been instances when people have gone back to India and still received GCs in mail at a friends' address! So once 485 has been filed USCIS mostly blindly processes it as long as it is a normal case (as in all documents in order, no felony records and clear FBI namecheck and no revokations).Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Not to exhibit schadenfreude, but this could have a pretty significant impact on spillover to EB2IC not just through porting, but also through EB2ROW fall across.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Exactly thats what I was talking about - ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY thats what missing - They can treat EB immigrants like whatever they want, but they should be accountable and transparent to their fellow countrymen (FBs are filed by Citizens and PRs). If you are wasting 18k in a single year and you don't even reach out to your fellow countrymen on what happened then you got a PROBLEM man!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
We're getting off track on this thread. If this discussion gathers momentum, i'll move it to its own thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Thank you. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Spec,
I ran some filters on trackitt to find out I485-ROW filings for Oct-Feb period for FY11,12,and 13 and this is what I found
FY 2011 - 222 caes
FY 2012 - 212 cases and
FY 2013 - 253 cases
Given EB2-ROW was retrogressed for last 3 months of FY2012..I still don’t see 'significant' increase in EB2-ROW filings (not at least from this data). Do you think that EB2-ROW demand is tapering off and might yield some spillover?
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
That's a slightly unfair comparison IMO.
There hasn't been enough time in FY2013 for all the cases to be added to Trackitt. People are notoriously slow in doing so.
I think we are using slightly different filters (I'm including NIW for instance), but that's not an issue.
My equivalent figures to your post would be:
FY2011 -- 265
FY2012 -- 261
FY2013 -- 289
However, if they were shown as cases added to Trackitt by Mar 15 in the relevant year they become:
FY2011 -- 167
FY2012 -- 178
FY2013 -- 289
Of those 289 in FY2013, 143 have a USCIS receipt date of November 2012.
Between June to December 2012 USCIS Receipt Dates, there have been 422 Trackitt cases added for EB2-ROW. Only 2 of those were approved in FY2012. A third of those remain pending.
Suninphx I am surprised why you dont think that 212 ->> 253 is a significant increase. That's a 20% increase which can easily consume any remaining EB2ROW quota.
qesehmk, not really...when you take into consideration 3 months retrogession.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
My point is -ROW seems to be running at ~50- cases /month (for previous years) ... on trackitt....and they are below that average currently.. (~253 against ~400 expected)...Spectator has fair point there about people being slow in adding cases ..so we will see if we reach to that average rate in coming months... as things stand now...they are running below avarage
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Here's the numbers to date:
Oct-12 --- 29 (when all PD had to be prior to 2012)
Nov-12 -- 143
Dec-12 --- 59
Jan-13 --- 33
Feb-13 --- 25
Mar-13 ---- 9
Total --- 298 - Average - 50
If we take the period June 2012 - Feb 2013, then there have been 478 cases added to Trackitt. Over 9 months, that is an average of 53, so the 50/month average is about right.
The problem is that 4 months from FY2012 has been pushed into FY2013 so that there is likely to be 16 months of approvals in FY2013 (i.e. 16 * 50 = 800 rather than 12 * 50 = 600).
If sequestration hits DOL then that might ameliorate the effect, but in previous years their is a considerable tail past a USCIS RD of March that gets approved in the FY. With the current quicker processing times by USCIS, even a DOL slowdown might be countered.
I agree we need to see what the monthly number settles down to for the rest of FY2013 - unfortunately that information won't be clear for months.
3 month retro should equal 25% annual demand and so when the gates open - you should see 100% jump in over 3 months e.g. Oct-Dec.
Whereas we are only seeing 20% jump.
Agree about slow to add. But I really don't think that it would every catch up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Spectator,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I did not bring the PD at all in the mix to keep the filter simple. I am just running a filter based on RD. So my logic is - if avarage is indeed ~50/month then we should see ~400 cases (50* 8 months - that would include 3 retro months from previous FY)...we see ~250-275 cases currently ..which are below average..thats all
so you agree to my logic or not...not very clear to me from your reply :)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yes. I think so.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I am not bringing PD into the equation either, only USCIS Receipt Date for the I-485.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
As I've pointed out, there are the number expected when you consider that some people brought things forward and submitted their I-485 in June 2012, knowing dates would be retrogressed until the new FY.
If you are looking at October to February, you are ignoring the fact that June-September 2012 had 191 receipts, of which 174 were in June 2012, just before dates retrogressed. Therefore you wouldn't expect to see 8 months worth received by USCIS in the period October-February.
That is why I used the June 2012 to February 2013 range, since it captures all the additional cases and averages 53 / month. Both January and February don't even look complete yet, so that figure is likely to rise.
In different terms:
@ 50 / month we would expect 50*4 = 200 for June-September. There were actually 191.
@ 50 / month we would expect 50*5 = 250 for October-February. There are actually 289 to date.
@ 50 / month we would expect 50*9 = 450 for June-February. There are actually 480 to date.
Maybe we just agree to disagree.
Probably ...Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
thanks for additional prespective and numbers though..
I will keep watching how trackitt numbers build up...
Gurus, My Priority date is 12/14/2007 EB2 India any estimates getting current?
thanks in advance
Sep 2013 latest.Quote:
Originally Posted by JosephM
No action in 2 and half days. Looks like everyone had a great St Patrick's Day :)
Vizcard,
When do you expect Aug 15, 2008 PD to become current?? What are chances by sep2013- 50%, 70%, 99%?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Do we have any idea how EB1 is tracking YTD in terms of I-140 approvals? Wouldnt that give us an idea of their usage?
Regards
Nat
Nat,Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
Such data would be very useful if it was published.
I haven't seen anything published since July 2011.
I'd say 50% or worse for Sep 2013. My PD is Aug 20, 2008 so im literally in the same window as you (Aug 15-22). Based on Spec and Qs latest calculations, we will be on the outside looking in. We just have to wait till the July VB to get more visibility. Good luck to both of us.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
PS: this is assuming no relief from CIR.
And my PD April 30 2008. What are my chances....gurus....percentage wise.? I will be very happy if I can atleast apply 485 this year.
Vizcard,
Thanks for the reply and feedback. Yes I know that we are in oneboat and thats why was curious to your guru input. Thanks again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Do not confuse me for a guru. :) Q, Spec and a couple of other bring the goods. I'm just using their analysis to provide my perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
I assume you are EB2I/C. You should be able to apply. Whether or not it gets approved before the dates retrogress is another matter. At least you'll have EAD.Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
For all others, please refer to the first page for the detailed analysis by Q and Spec and draw your own conclusions.
vizcard,
Don't be so modest.
I second that!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Gurus, What could be the reason for EB3 India movement of 2 weeks in April VB, usually its moving a week every month. Should i expect this everymonth :)
Thanks
Simple answer - If the porting is more than 300 per month then it is quite possible that every month EB3 quota gets reduced by 600 (approx) which should be generally equivalent to 2 weeks.
Complex answer - The porting mentioned above should all come from retrogressed EB3 date+1 week then only the above statement is true. This porting is not all EB3 porting. This is the portion that causes movement. In fact there are 3 types of porting. A) porting that causes EB3 movement B) porting that causes EB2 retrogression or at least holds back EB2 dates C) porting that is latent and not visible today. e.g. an EB3I2009 porting to EB2I. So its A that I am talking about here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by snvlgopal
snvlgopal,Quote:
Originally Posted by snvlgopal
The other possibility is that CO has released the extra visas from Oct-Mar due to the increase in the EB3 limit to 45,188.
When 40k were available, the 7 % limit was 2,803 or 252 visas per month in Q1-Q3.
With 45.2k available, that rises to 3,163 and around 285 visas per month.
So April may have had 285 + (6*(285-252)) = 483 visas available rather than 252 to date (192% of what has been available).
In this case, it would be a one off instance of faster movement.
The other factor is that EB3-I Cut Off Dates are now starting to move into an area where people have already ported and the density may be starting to lower.
In that case, the faster movement would be more sustainable.
The USCIS Dashboard was updated with January 2013 figures yesterday evening.
It has been a very quiet week so far in all senses of the word.
There have been virtually no Trackitt approvals so far.
If we were a little closer to the end of March, I might put that down to running out of visas for the Quarter, but I do not think we are close to that situation.
On another note, I think CO has left a big move in EB3-ROW dates a little late - I expected a larger movement in the April VB.
As of March 7, 2013 EB3-ROW had 3.5k demand left. By the next DD in early April, that will have dropped to about 1.9k.
By the time the May VB can take effect, EB3-ROW demand will have been virtually exhausted. EB3-ROW appear to need at least 10k new applications to be approved to meet the number of visas available to them. Some new cases will have been submitted as a result of recent movements, but not that many.
Since it is going to take at least 3-4 months for new I-485 to be adjudicated, that is going to push the approvals into Q4 - exactly the same time as EB2-I spillover is likely to be released.
That is going to increase the reliance on USCIS being able to approve large numbers of cases in a short timespan.
I never like to be reliant on USCIS being efficient.
As a PS:- If CO was working on only 140k being available annually in his calculations for October thru March, then the number of visas available do appear very close to being used up. At 158k EB being available annually, they do not. We'll have to see what happens for the rest of the month.
I saw this post on Trackitt.
It pretty much confirms what we have said already - that the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from EB3 to EB2 cannot take place until the PD is Current.
Quote:
Today I got this email response from NCSCFollowup.NSC@uscis.dhs.gov:
Good afternoon,
USCIS records indicate that the Service is waiting for VISA availability.
Please note that if an applicant wishes to transfer their pending I-485 application to their 2nd preference approved I-140 petition, a request for conversion must be made in writing, but a visa must be available to transfer.
If you have already submitted a written transfer request, your request will be kept in the file. The transfer can take place once visas are available.
The National Customer Service Center’s toll free number is 1 800 375 5283 or you may access the CIS web site at www.uscis.gov should you have any further questions or need additional information.
Regards,
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
EX0357
Spec just to illustrate your point you mean the EB3PD date must be current in EB2. Right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator