EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

It's great finding. I believe this is the answer for the unexpected movement in this fall. Maybe he thinks EB2-ROW demand is low, so he can assign the numbers to EB2-C/I. As far as the total approval number is less than 26%*40000=10400.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks. Oct-Dec also is a calendar quarter. So in the past the spillover should've happened.

However there is something interesting I read yesterday that I never read before. How could I have missed it all along?

"A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Its that "during the remainder of" that I have been missing. So basically what CO is doing right now is he is anticipating low EB2ROW usage and allocating the visas to EB2IC. No law is broken or bent. (Rather he is doing what he should've been doing last 4 years).

Again he is not doing it suddenly out of love of EB2IC. He is doing it and will continue to do it to teh extent USCIS can replenish their inventories sufficiently. That's great. So basically we might see dates moving steadily through at least next couple of bulletins.

I really do not engage in predicting next bulletin and the dates. Its futile. Nobody can read CO's mind. But I think we are on track to hit Jan 2008 well before I predicted I will hit it.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

There is nothing special with 2009. I just think they should allow half of the applicants to get EAD/AP to make their life easier.

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Again, what's special with with half of the applicants. How are you arriving at these years and numbers? Why not give EAD/AP to all till 2011...Is your PD 2009?

Yes, I agree. Even yesterday I saw ten EB-2C approvals. I guess they are using 8k visa numbers in the first quarter and that means ROW EB2 will get around 2k visa numbers in Q1.

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Originally Posted by pch053

As seen in trackitt, EB2I approvals are still trickling in which is surely a good news for EB2-I/C folks. I see around 115 EB2I (incl NIW) trackitt approvals so far for the month of Oct and there have been ~3 - 4 approvals today. I think if this rate of approval continues in near future, most of the 2007 filers will be cleared by the end of this calendar year. This will also pave the way for the PWMB and new filings (i.e. post Aug'07 folks whose PDs got current) to be adjudicated sometime from early-mid 2012.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks. Oct-Dec also is a calendar quarter. So in the past the spillover should've happened.

However there is something interesting I read yesterday that I never read before. How could I have missed it all along?

"A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."

Its that "during the remainder of" that I have been missing. So basically what CO is doing right now is he is anticipating low EB2ROW usage and allocating the visas to EB2IC. No law is broken or bent. (Rather he is doing what he should've been doing last 4 years).

Again he is not doing it suddenly out of love of EB2IC. He is doing it and will continue to do it to teh extent USCIS can replenish their inventories sufficiently. That's great. So basically we might see dates moving steadily through at least next couple of bulletins.

I really do not engage in predicting next bulletin and the dates. Its futile. Nobody can read CO's mind. But I think we are on track to hit Jan 2008 well before I predicted I will hit it.

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Now we have some probable explaination as to where visas are coming from. :)

If they can, they should allow all the folks to get EAD/AP. I put 2009.12 because they don't want to flood their office and it is more realistic.

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

Again, what's special with with half of the applicants. How are you arriving at these years and numbers? Why not give EAD/AP to all till 2011...Is your PD 2009?

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Smuggymba

qblogfan PD is in 2008 and I believe he is smart enough to know that just by suggesting a date in the forum won't influence the CO mind

please donot go personal at him, CO didnot do any favors to anybody and qblogfan need not to be polite as you or somebody else would expect

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Originally Posted by sreddy

I don't think anyboday right now asking to open flood gates like they did in 2007, but provide EAD to all those who got I140 approved, and movement few months at a time. You made an interesting comment here "DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC", what is the source of that?

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If you will attend stakeholder meeting, you will hear there are many instances of such disgrunts.

One of such instance is already documented by qbf on this forum.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

That is an interesting point that you noted there about "during remainder of quarter". To use this efficiently onus is on USCIS to provide correct load or demand on monthly basis for a quarter, which I doubt is done efficiently for categories that are current (mostly done on quarterly basis). Based on information that I received, my take is still that in any case quarterly spillover cannot be used until March-April realistically. Anomaly to this is yet to be seen.

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Qly spillover (QSP) has never been deployed ever before June of any fiscal. If at all this is the first time CO/VO has deployed it ever.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Qly spillover (QSP) has never been deployed ever before June of any fiscal. If at all this is the first time CO/VO has deployed it ever.

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Q, how can you forget May 2011 VB which deployed spillover as per "Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)"? That is earliest it can get.

Q, this discussion will not take us anywhere and clearly deviates from the forum's focus. I will close this discussion here for now. We will discuss this later only after CO will clearly quote any statement about using spillover in next bulletins. Usually he will state (INA) Section 202(a)(5) whenever he will first use it. Keep up the good work.

May vs June - big deal!

The point being it should be happening every quarter and is not happening. This quarter is the first quarter when QSP may be happening. Lets see how it goes.

This is good discussion. Don't worry about focus. This is right up our alley. Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

Q, how can you forget May 2011 VB which deployed spillover as per "Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)"? That is earliest it can get.

Q, this discussion will not take us anywhere and clearly deviates from the forum's focus. I will close this discussion here for now. We will discuss this later only after CO will clearly quote any statement about using spillover in next bulletins. Usually he will state (INA) Section 202(a)(5) whenever he will first use it. Keep up the good work.

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Nice thought for the day by Q
Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

May vs June - big deal!

The point being it should be happening every quarter and is not happening. This quarter is the first quarter when QSP may be happening. Lets see how it goes.

This is good discussion. Don't worry about focus. This is right up our alley. Difference in opinion is good. That's where one learns something.

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Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

I agree that this is the last chance to see big movement. If this VB pauses, then we may have to wait for the summer months. I seriously doubt he will hold off and move dates in Q2. If this VB stops movement, then the future look is not going to be optimistic.

I also agree that this coming VB may get released on Nov.4th. Let's keep fingers crossed. Boys and girls have waited for too long...........

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

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Hi Nishant,

As you mentioned before, last visa bulletin was released earlier due to columbus day and it was hapenning from past 3-4 years..I dont think release day matters.
What ever might be the ground you just need a last minute field goal :) or one run of last ball which is also tense moment.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

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Let's assume in Q1 USCIS can use 8k visas to approve all the cases submitted in 2007. Then the PWMB and the cases submitted in Oct. and Nov. should be around 10k. The question is that whether Mr.CO feels safe to have 10k EB2 C&I for the Q2/Q3/Q4. If he feels unsafe, then he will admit more. If he feels 10k is large enough, then he will pause. I hope he will not be conservative and admit more people.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Considering that the Nov VB was released on October 5th, which was a wednesday, and hence just after two working days into the month, and the demand data showed that the date for that date collected was October 4th, just the second working day of the month, I think it's not a far fetched idea to say Dec VB may be released on November 4th, which would be in fact 3 working days into the month.

Now, I think that, if demand data is released on Nov 4th Friday, VB will be released same day, or it can be released on Nov 7th Friday, and VB on same day. If it gets released on the 4th or 7th, it would be mostly good news, if it drags more than 7th, we should brace ourselves for not so good news which might mean a pause in movement, and that in my opinion would be a wasted opportunity to provide relief to EB2I/C folks. Only reason why even if good news, but CO releases on 7th, and not on 4th, would be to not catch anyone's eye that some pre-decisions had been made.

This is almost like needing runs off last ball of the over (game of cricket) to win. This Dec VB will be it for next few months I believe, this is the last best chance for CO to make a good movement before the 485s become ripe in inventory and people start hammering USCIS with service requests and congressional inquiries.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Let's assume in Q1 USCIS can use 8k visas to approve all the cases submitted in 2007. Then the PWMB and the cases submitted in Oct. and Nov. should be around 10k. The question is that whether Mr.CO feels safe to have 10k EB2 C&I for the Q2/Q3/Q4. If he feels unsafe, then he will admit more. If he feels 10k is large enough, then he will pause. I hope he will not be conservative and admit more people.

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qbf, a very big reason due to which this Dec VB is extremely critical is that if he waits more, then even the summer months move you speculate might not happen and 10k that you mention above might be just large enough to survive the FY, because there is a huge monster lurking in terms of the pending 140s, anytime USCIS undertakes 140 backlog reduction to bring to 14-15k levels of 2009, EB2I/C will be completely screwed.

Hence if CO will be conservative and wait to admit more people, I don't think he will get to admit a lot more people, as I do feel USCIS will embark sometime this year to do backlog reduction of 140 to a certain extent at least. Last time they did this, it cost us around 7-8k visa movement by pausing the Sep VB.

I feel this Dec VB is a test of DOS's and to in fact a great extent, the policy administrators' whoever they are, their empathy, for EB2I/C folks, if any, and any heed they have paid to pleas of organizations fighting for EB folks like NIU.

edit: I admit I used to think that USCIS have hit a plateau in terms of 140 backlog reduction, but now I do think they will work for reducing backlog to a great chance, because of huge date movements of EB2I/C, I have a feeling that this is not very likable to USCIS when they are sitting on a stockpile of pending 140s.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I agree that this is the last chance to see big movement. If this VB pauses, then we may have to wait for the summer months. I seriously doubt he will hold off and move dates in Q2. If this VB stops movement, then the future look is not going to be optimistic.

I also agree that this coming VB may get released on Nov.4th. Let's keep fingers crossed. Boys and girls have waited for too long...........

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I disagree. I think they could keep it constant this month and move it next month, i.e in Dec for Jan VB. Especially when they have said that in Nov VB that we should expect significant movement but not on a monthly basis. Not sure how things can change massively in one month that all movement will suddenly shift to Summer.

I think the next VB is the last one we can see movement. With the approvals of huge number of I140, it will be difficult to move the dates.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

I disagree. I think they could keep it constant this month and move it next month, i.e in Dec for Jan VB. Especially when they have said that in Nov VB that we should expect significant movement but not on a monthly basis. Not sure how things can change massively in one month that all movement will suddenly shift to Summer.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I think the next VB is the last one we can see movement. With the approvals of huge number of I140, it will be difficult to move the dates.

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I'm sure they were aware of the 140 backlog when they wrote this in the Nov VB :

While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

The Dashboard shows that the backlog went down a bit, but it has always been high even when the above was written. This is not news to them : http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1

I think they already have a plan in mind, how it will help/screw us we just don't know it yet. But I don't believe that the next month VB is the end-all till Summer unless it's a BTM. Even if they don't do any movement next month, I think they can do it the month after or so on.

Data always helps.
12 month rolling 2010 (140) - 75K completions.
12 month rolling 2011 (140) - 84K completions.

The extra 9K will have only 4.5K max ROW. of which max 2.5K will be EB2ROW. Which means full year impact of 5-6K on SOFAD

Besides, USCIS still needs to take even more intake. Oct 2007 makes it very conservative. Jan 2008 is what would be somewhat safe.

Dec may or may not move. But the dates will move in next 3-4 months.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I think the next VB is the last one we can see movement. With the approvals of huge number of I140, it will be difficult to move the dates.

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tanu, what they write in VB, the notes like this, can easily be dismissed by them. they can easily say:

While significant future cut-off date movement was a possibility as noted in the November Visa Bulletin (Number xyz), It was brought to our attention by CIS that a significant amount of I-140 petitions pending with them have been adjudicated, which belong to categories that are Current. Readers were also advised that the movement in November Visa Bulletin is expected to generate significant demand for the Employment Based Second Preference Mainland China and India preferences. It has been hence necessary to retrogress dates to July 15th 2007.

I am not saying this will happen, I am just hypothetically, just like you, me, qblogfan, we are all trying to think various theories.

I will say it again, the I-140 backlog is a huge monster, and USCIS has shown an appetite to attending to it. It is a tug of war sometimes between DOS and USCIS. For eg: DOS says 12k more from EB1, USCIS says here you go, we have sudden 12k demand from EB1, EB2ROW. The earlier dates move, this will impact less, the later dates move, this will impact more.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

I'm sure they were aware of the 140 backlog when they wrote this in the Nov VB :

While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

The Dashboard shows that the backlog went down a bit, but it has always been high even when the above was written. This is not news to them : http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1

I think they already have a plan in mind, how it will help/screw us we just don't know it yet. But I don't believe that the next month VB is the end-all till Summer unless it's a BTM. Even if they don't do any movement next month, I think they can do it the month after or so on.

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Nishanth,

The pending 140 data that is available now showing the significant decrease, but isn't that already factored in Septemeber bulletin non movement? (may be the intent from CIS was to clear some backlog in August and so they warned DOS before releasing sept bulletin that the huge demand coming up)

The fact that they went ahead and moved dates in October and November tells me the completions may be not that high in Sept and early october

You brought up a very good point. Although they have 25k I140 pending cases, only a small percentage of them are EB2-ROW. Maybe the impact will not be as huge as we thought.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Data always helps.
12 month rolling 2010 (140) - 75K completions.
12 month rolling 2011 (140) - 84K completions.

The extra 9K will have only 4.5K max ROW. of which max 2.5K will be EB2ROW. Which means full year impact of 5-6K on SOFAD

Besides, USCIS still needs to take even more intake. Oct 2007 makes it very conservative. Jan 2008 is what would be somewhat safe.

Dec may or may not move. But the dates will move in next 3-4 months.

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I agree bieber, I also think that right now is not their focus on 140 backlog reduction, but sometime this FY they will start that. And once they start that, dates movement will become very difficult. So all I am hoping is that DOS moves dates early on while they can. If DOS wants to hold true to NVC, which I believe is more related directly to them than USCIS, then this is their chance, these early months for big strides to reach mid 2008. Later on, they might be stopped in their tracks by USCIS who might go an effort to reduce 140 to clean their books.

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Originally Posted by bieber

Nishanth,

The pending 140 data that is available now showing the significant decrease, but isn't that already factored in Septemeber bulletin non movement? (may be the intent from CIS was to clear some backlog in August and so they warned DOS before releasing sept bulletin that the huge demand coming up)

The fact that they went ahead and moved dates in October and November tells me the completions may be not that high in Sept and early october

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

qbf, a very big reason due to which this Dec VB is extremely critical is that if he waits more, then even the summer months move you speculate might not happen and 10k that you mention above might be just large enough to survive the FY, because there is a huge monster lurking in terms of the pending 140s, anytime USCIS undertakes 140 backlog reduction to bring to 14-15k levels of 2009, EB2I/C will be completely screwed.

Hence if CO will be conservative and wait to admit more people, I don't think he will get to admit a lot more people, as I do feel USCIS will embark sometime this year to do backlog reduction of 140 to a certain extent at least. Last time they did this, it cost us around 7-8k visa movement by pausing the Sep VB.

I feel this Dec VB is a test of DOS's and to in fact a great extent, the policy administrators' whoever they are, their empathy, for EB2I/C folks, if any, and any heed they have paid to pleas of organizations fighting for EB folks like NIU.

edit: I admit I used to think that USCIS have hit a plateau in terms of 140 backlog reduction, but now I do think they will work for reducing backlog to a great chance, because of huge date movements of EB2I/C, I have a feeling that this is not very likable to USCIS when they are sitting on a stockpile of pending 140s.

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Does any one know what % of pending I140 are ROWs. Without that there is no point predicting if it will hurt or not and how much.

qblogfan, I kind of concur with your statement. This VB is likely to see a stretch forward. Next VB January 2012 VB may not be a good news for every one. Because there is a high probability of many PWMBs getting pre-adjudicated by then and they(PWMBs) would be waiting for visa numbers. If DOS still decides to move the dates while people opening SR requests, DOS could be breaking the law at that time. Unless they have a stable/workable formula to distribute visas in a round-robin fashion across all categories.(very risky)

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Let's assume in Q1 USCIS can use 8k visas to approve all the cases submitted in 2007. Then the PWMB and the cases submitted in Oct. and Nov. should be around 10k. The question is that whether Mr.CO feels safe to have 10k EB2 C&I for the Q2/Q3/Q4. If he feels unsafe, then he will admit more. If he feels 10k is large enough, then he will pause. I hope he will not be conservative and admit more people.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Does any one know what % of pending I140 are ROWs. Without that there is no point predicting if it will hurt or not and how much.

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Then let's think of anyway we can deduce approximate how many might be ROW, but you can't say there is no point in thinking how much it will hurt.

I brought this pending 140 about just to simulate this kind of point you put forth, to bring this discussion about.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Then let's think of anyway we can deduce approximate how many might be ROW, but you can't say there is no point in thinking how much it will hurt.

I brought this pending 140 about just to simulate this kind of point you put forth, to bring this discussion about.

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Nishat- point taken :). I was saying 'we need to know the approx. percentage' without that no point discussing whether or not it will hurt.

One of the way could be to figure out percentage of ROW:EB2IC PERM ratio? What do you think?

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

tanu, what they write in VB, the notes like this, can easily be dismissed by them. they can easily say:

While significant future cut-off date movement was a possibility as noted in the November Visa Bulletin (Number xyz), It was brought to our attention by CIS that a significant amount of I-140 petitions pending with them have been adjudicated, which belong to categories that are Current. Readers were also advised that the movement in November Visa Bulletin is expected to generate significant demand for the Employment Based Second Preference Mainland China and India preferences. It has been hence necessary to retrogress dates to July 15th 2007.

I am not saying this will happen, I am just hypothetically, just like you, me, qblogfan, we are all trying to think various theories.

I will say it again, the I-140 backlog is a huge monster, and USCIS has shown an appetite to attending to it. It is a tug of war sometimes between DOS and USCIS. For eg: DOS says 12k more from EB1, USCIS says here you go, we have sudden 12k demand from EB1, EB2ROW. The earlier dates move, this will impact less, the later dates move, this will impact more.

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Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Does any one know what % of pending I140 are ROWs. Without that there is no point predicting if it will hurt or not and how much.

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agree, Mr.CO seldom writes any positive things in VB. It is kind of special this time. But he is also unstable and unpredictable. Nobody knows what he will do.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

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just imagine how CO will feel if he visits this website .....cold blooded+unstable+ unpredictable=sadistic mental retard :)

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

agree, Mr.CO seldom writes any positive things in VB. It is kind of special this time. But he is also unstable and unpredictable. Nobody knows what he will do.

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Yes, i too dont remember when a visa bulletin was this optimistic, probably i might have missed but definetly this is positive.
As i have been telling from some time, it will be bad way of operating an office if they dont take atleast 30k to 35k new applications eventhough they might need only 25k application for this year.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

just imagine how CO will feel if he visits this website .....cold blooded+unstable+ unpredictable=sadistic mental retard :)

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Well I hope thats not all he takes from this site. The logical analysis here would be useful to him too :P

Nishanth, Thanks :)

grnwtg, I don't know if he has to take only one year quota, it got to be atleast, just a thought but he may consider taking couple of years (i will be in with 1 yr itself, just in case if anyone wonders :) )

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.

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guys, also some of these would be porters from EB3 to EB2, as well as EB2 to EB2 if someone changed jobs, they need new 140 approval also

I agree with this observation, they don't make such nice future prediction out in the open.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

Yes, they can write whatever s*** and we'll lap it up, point taken.

However I don't think I've seen them make such an explicit positive statement about future movement. In my experience (in fact, I think I'll still get nightmares about VB movement even after I get my GC), they tend to defend or predict negative moves, but I haven't seen them predict positive on future movement. Probably because they haven't seen this situation in the past 4-5 years where they don't have 50k applications ready to go. So I think this is unique and there's a very good chance of dates moving before the end of this year. Now the definition of "significant", your guess is as good as mine. Could be 2 months, 6 months, 1 year.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I think EB2-I PERMs are at least 50% of the total PERM and EB2-C are at least 10%. That leaves maximum 40% ROW PERMs.

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Assumptions:
- EB2 IC is 70% of all EB2+3 IC PERM applications (see my other posts for reasons)
- EB2 ROW is 50% of all EB2+3 ROW PERM applications (guess)
- EB1 IC to EB1 ROW ratio is similar to EB2+3 ratios

Calculation:
Total PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 199,525
IC PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 95,260

Therefore, EB2 IC to EB2 Total ratio = (95,260 * 0.7)/(199,525 * 0.5) ~ 67%

Summary:
Thus, EB2 IC is 67% and EB2 ROW is 33%.

thank you immi2910!

Based on this assumption, So if one assumes say ROW 33%, and also let's say 7% is porters, then 40% of the 140 are for ROW + Porters, and 10k would be the effect of backlog reduction considering that they stick to 25k pending level despite of new incoming 140 applications. Taking 80% approval rate of I-140 assumption, then it would be 8k impact on SOFAD, based on this particular calculation. But this SOFAD decrease also takes into account around 1.7k decrease due to porting, that we can keep in mind when correlating with Spec's tables. Or we can say it only impacts 6.3k SOFAD, and we keep porting seperate. This brings it darn close to the 5-6k SOFAD shown by Q's rollover post earlier.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by immi2910

Assumptions:
- EB2 IC is 70% of all EB2+3 IC PERM applications (see my other posts for reasons)
- EB2 ROW is 50% of all EB2+3 ROW PERM applications (guess)
- EB1 IC to EB1 ROW ratio is similar to EB2+3 ratios

Calculation:
Total PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 199,525
IC PERM applications with PD 07/2007 to 06/2011 = 95,260

Therefore, EB2 IC to EB2 Total ratio = (95,260 * 0.7)/(199,525 * 0.5) ~ 67%

Summary:
Thus, EB2 IC is 67% and EB2 ROW is 33%.

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Has Spec's table been "ported over" (couldn't resist!) to this thread. I know it was in 2011 thread and I looked at the first couple of pages here and didn't see it.