EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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03-14-2012, 03:28 PM
sujan_vatrapu

I want to know how USCIS is able to approve so may EB2I 485s lately. I was following trackiit thread of jan eb2i filers and they are reporting a relatively busy weekend. I am saying realtively coz it might be normal during the last quarter of a FY but from my experience its unprecendented during other quarters. It can be attirbuted to one of the two things (1) More and more recent EB2I filers are adding/updateing their cases on trackitt (2) USCIS is doing QSP. For (2), I was of the assumption that QSP happens after the quarter ends (which in this case wud be April). I guess I am wrong. Gurus, is there any better explanation on the recent trend? Also trackitt SS of jan filers indicate that 9% got their GCs.
03-14-2012, 04:47 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by sujan_vatrapu

I want to know how USCIS is able to approve so may EB2I 485s lately. I was following trackiit thread of jan eb2i filers and they are reporting a relatively busy weekend. I am saying realtively coz it might be normal during the last quarter of a FY but from my experience its unprecendented during other quarters. It can be attirbuted to one of the two things (1) More and more recent EB2I filers are adding/updateing their cases on trackitt (2) USCIS is doing QSP. For (2), I was of the assumption that QSP happens after the quarter ends (which in this case wud be April). I guess I am wrong. Gurus, is there any better explanation on the recent trend? Also trackitt SS of jan filers indicate that 9% got their GCs.

sujan_vatrapu,

The % of people adding their EB2-I case to Trackitt appears to have doubled compared to the pre July backlog cases.

DOS appear to be using QSP based on estimated amounts, rather than waiting to see the exact numbers available.

I agree the numbers have been even higher in Q2 than they were in Q1. In fact, I suspect very few visas remain in Q2 against the 54% limit for the first half of the year. As a result, I expect the approval rate to slow until April begins and a new quarter's worth of spillover becomes available.

As for January filers, based on Trackitt data, about 4% have received approvals to date. In fact, the number is probably nearer 2.5%, since not all January filers have yet added their case to Trackitt who will do so.
03-14-2012, 05:03 PM
sujan_vatrapu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

sujan_vatrapu,

The % of people adding their EB2-I case to Trackitt appears to have doubled compared to the pre July backlog cases.

DOS appear to be using QSP based on estimated amounts, rather than waiting to see the exact numbers available.

I agree the numbers have been even higher in Q2 than they were in Q1. In fact, I suspect very few visas remain in Q2 against the 54% limit for the first half of the year. As a result, I expect the approval rate to slow until April begins and a new quarter's worth of spillover becomes available.

As for January filers, based on Trackitt data, about 4% have received approvals to date. In fact, the number is probably nearer 2.5%, since not all January filers have yet added their case to Trackitt who will do so.

Whats your guess on what PD we will end up with at the end of this FY? Sounds unbelievable but some people from Dec, 2008 are getting GCs (desperate8 and some other trackitters). Is this a scenario where IOs know that by this FY dates will be around that ballpark and approving cases that are straight forward or is it deja vu 2008 where they approved cases randomly and the dates retrogressed?
03-14-2012, 08:30 PM
vizcard

based on recent approvals, I'm doing to speculate that dates will retrogress to Mar 2008 at the very latest (i.e. Dec filers). The reason, I feel, is to some semblance of order in PD approvals. Right now its a free for all. Anyone who is current can be approved. I don't have the stats but I'm pretty sure not every 2007 PD is adjudicated (approved or denied). I will also posit that approvals will die down in this quarter and pick back up in Q4 when CO gets a real sense of what his SOFAD is going to be.

It'll be amazing to know how many "real" EB GCs have been given out. We keep hearing 50-60% but I would like a real number.
03-14-2012, 09:07 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

based on recent approvals, I'm doing to speculate that dates will retrogress to Mar 2008 at the very latest (i.e. Dec filers). The reason, I feel, is to some semblance of order in PD approvals. Right now its a free for all. Anyone who is current can be approved.

vizcard,

I think it will be a little later than that, although in 2008, to give some breathing room.

Quote:

I don't have the stats but I'm pretty sure not every 2007 PD is adjudicated (approved or denied).

According to my data, a little over 50% of pre 2008 cases remain unapproved.

Quote:

I will also posit that approvals will die down in this quarter and pick back up in Q4 when CO gets a real sense of what his SOFAD is going to be.

Remember, we are still in Q2. I think approvals will continue apace when Q3 begins in April, to the extent that QSP allows. If USCIS continue at the pace they set in February, retrogression would be necessary before the end of Q3 (probably in the June VB).

Quote:

It'll be amazing to know how many "real" EB GCs have been given out. We keep hearing 50-60% but I would like a real number.

If CO sticks to the law, it can't be more than 54% by the end of March. I'm sure they will hit that mark. We'll have a better idea when USCIS publish the Q2 Individual Applications and Petitions data. Unfortunately, that won't be available until May, judging by previous releases.
03-14-2012, 09:20 PM
sonu201

Q&A with Adjudicators-answers on USCIS Application process

Hi Guys,

Just found this old thread from trackitt that could explain order (disorder?) of adjudication by officers.

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussio...cation-process

If you are wondering that your case is not touched while others filed couple of months after are greened, these could be the reasons..

"boxes that are staged on the shelves are chosen at random by the officers"

"the officer could be hording a box at his desk (for some strange reason) and then goes on vacation"

After reading this I felt much better than refreshing trackitt every other minute..
03-14-2012, 09:40 PM
vizcard

Quote:

If CO sticks to the law, it can't be more than 54% by the end of March. I'm sure they will hit that mark. We'll have a better idea when USCIS publish the Q2 Individual Applications and Petitions data. Unfortunately, that won't be available until May, judging by previous releases.

I must admit, I didnt read this previously. Am I reading it correctly when I say that 31.5K EB (22.5%) were used up in Q1 (not including CPs) ?
03-14-2012, 09:47 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

I must admit, I didnt read this previously. Am I reading it correctly when I say that 31.5K EB (22.5%) were used up in Q1 (not including CPs) ?

vizcard,

That's correct.
03-15-2012, 08:36 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

That's correct.

So the USCIS is giving out/ will give out almost 45K in Q2 assuming he sticks with the 54% mark. That is a bucket load of visas.
03-15-2012, 09:18 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

So the USCIS is giving out/ will give out almost 45K in Q2 assuming he sticks with the 54% mark. That is a bucket load of visas.

That number doesn't seem correct.

In Q1, USCIS approved 31.5k cases. Adding on a little over 15% CP cases brings the total to the 27% limit of 37.8k.

So it is likely that another 37.8k visas will be approved in Q2, of which USCIS will approve about 85%, or 32k.
03-15-2012, 10:55 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

That number doesn't seem correct.

In Q1, USCIS approved 31.5k cases. Adding on a little over 15% CP cases brings the total to the 27% limit of 37.8k.

So it is likely that another 37.8k visas will be approved in Q2, of which USCIS will approve about 85%, or 32k.

I didn't take CP in to account for the Q1 number but doesn't 15% seem high considering overall they are about 10% (if that). Regardless, 32K in Q2 and possibly a similar number in Q3 is a nice number to work with for a continuous stream of approvals.
03-15-2012, 12:38 PM
GC-Utopic

FYI,As per a leaked internal memo of USCIS, they are sneaking into your profiles,,,,

http://www.imminfo.com/Resources/CIS...networking.pdf

Source :http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...rking-jam.html
03-15-2012, 12:40 PM
kolugc

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!
03-15-2012, 12:45 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by GC-Utopic

FYI,As per a leaked internal memo of USCIS, they are sneaking into your profiles,,,,

http://www.imminfo.com/Resources/CIS...networking.pdf

Source :http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...rking-jam.html

good read, thanks for sharing.
03-15-2012, 12:46 PM
pdfeb09

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolugc

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

Congratulations .. Enjoy !!
03-15-2012, 12:56 PM
natvyas

Congratulations Teddy

Just saw on trackkit that Teddy got approved. I think its OUR Teddy.

Cheers man !!! Enjoy
03-15-2012, 12:58 PM
Spectator

Teddy,

I have just returned, looked at Trackitt, and it seems congratulations are in order!!!!

I can honestly say there isn't a more deserving person.

What a relief.
03-15-2012, 12:59 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

Just saw on trackkit that Teddy got approved. I think its OUR Teddy.

Cheers man !!! Enjoy

Great News!!

Congratulations T! Well deserved!
03-15-2012, 01:00 PM
pdfeb09

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

Just saw on trackkit that Teddy got approved. I think its OUR Teddy.

Cheers man !!! Enjoy

He posted it here too just on a different thread... Teddy's Approval Post
03-15-2012, 01:03 PM
Jonty Rhodes

Wow, natvyas and Spectator, you guys are fast. I just saw Teddy's I-485 got approved and when I opened the forum, you already posted the congratulatory messages.

Anyways, one more from me.

Many Congratulations Teddy. You along with Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, KD, Monica, Kanmani, suninphx and other experts, have been a ray of hope for many others in waiting.

Congrats again. Great news.

Keep up the good work.
03-15-2012, 01:06 PM
Kanmani

Congratulations! Kolugc. enjoy!
03-15-2012, 01:18 PM
mesan123

COngratulations koluguc....

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolugc

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!
03-15-2012, 02:01 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends finally at 12 PM EST received the CPO mails for me and my wife. Finally this is the culmination of a very long journey. Gives me a great happiness and relief in reaching this milestone which until a few years was just a dream.

My sincerest thanks and deepest gratitude is due to all of you for your wishes and kind words especially in the RFE phase. Immigration forums started for me as a place of learning and it still is only difference is that it is a part of life now; really good since it has introduced me to so many friends and given me a truly great opportunity to interact. I will definitely be around. I wish everyone waiting all the very best, I hope you all reach the milestone soon.

Teddy,
Congratulations to you and your family.
03-15-2012, 02:02 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolugc

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

kolugc,
Congratulations.
03-15-2012, 02:28 PM
qesehmk

Kolugc congrats and best wishes for future!

Quote:

Originally Posted by kolugc

Very happy to post this, and wanted to thank each and everybody here for the information I could use from here in pursuing my journey...!!

Today morning 7:15 got the CPO email about my 485 approval.

Receipt Number: LIN12902402**
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

PD: 06/09/2008
RD:01/03/2012 (2 dependents same date)
ND:01/06/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP Notice: 02/01/2012 (2 dependents same date)
FP App: 02/15/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP ND: 02/10/2012 (2 dependents same date)
EAD/AP RD: 02/16/2012 (2 dependents same date)
485 CPO mail: 03/15/2012 (2 dependents same date) - Card Production

Wish you all good luck..!!!

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