EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Pardon my unrelated question, but I could think of no other forum than this to get it answered. The F2A Category has confounded me. 'Final Action' date is current while, 'Filing Date' is 1st Dec, which in itself is wierd in the first place. The other confusion I had was, what exactly is the 'Filing Date' mean? Is it the date of Filing I-130 or Date of filing I-485 or the Date of Marriage?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!

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The biggest joke with Philippines FB is their dates are retrogressed behind ROW. And they don’t get enough applicants in FB. Last year it was current for a month and this year it is still behind.

--New DHS Data Shows the Changing Face of U.S. Immigration

https://www.boundless.com/blog/dhs-data-2018/

I will be current beginning February.

Couple of questions to veterans on this forum:
When to raise a SR? After one month wait?
When to meet Congress Rep? After one month wait?

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Originally Posted by vyruss

I will be current beginning February.

Couple of questions to veterans on this forum:
When to raise a SR? After one month wait?
When to meet Congress Rep? After one month wait?

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As per your profile you PD is May 19. You will not be current in Feb. Only dates before FAD are current.

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Originally Posted by paramjit74

As per your profile you PD is May 19. You will not be current in Feb. Only dates before FAD are current.

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Yes that is right . The bulletin states " Numbers are authorized for issuance only for applicants whose priority date is earlier than the final action date listed below".

So it the date is May 19th , only applicants before 19th are current . IOWs cutoff date is 18th May.
But dates will move for March , so you will be current in March for sure. Best of luck

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Originally Posted by Moveon

Yes that is right . The bulletin states " Numbers are authorized for issuance only for applicants whose priority date is earlier than the final action date listed below".

So it the date is May 19th , only applicants before 19th are current . IOWs cutoff date is 18th May.
But dates will move for March , so you will be current in March for sure. Best of luck

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My PD is 18th May. I made the change in my profile.

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Originally Posted by vyruss

My PD is 18th May. I made the change in my profile.

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Congrats !! Mine is 3 weeks away. I don't know how long I have to wait.

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Originally Posted by paramjit74

Congrats !! Mine is 3 weeks away. I don't know how long I have to wait.

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Paramjit , lets hope it gets there in march , but more realistically May but definitely this fiscal.

Any guess as to when Jan 2010 EB3I FAD will be current? EB3I FD has been at Feb 2010 for long time...

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Any guess as to when Jan 2010 EB3I FAD will be current? EB3I FD has been at Feb 2010 for long time...

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it will take a while. The EB2I folks in from Jul 2009 and 2010 who have never filed for AOS will flood EB3 since Filing Dates for EB3 is ahead of EB2 and USCIS has been accepting filing dates so far this FY

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Originally Posted by LASHAB

it will take a while. The EB2I folks in from Jul 2009 and 2010 who have never filed for AOS will flood EB3 since Filing Dates for EB3 is ahead of EB2 and USCIS has been accepting filing dates so far this FY

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By this time, I would think, most of them would have filed for AOS or others who wanted to downgrade would have done so, as the filing dates have been in 2010 for quite some time... Why are the EB3I filing dates still in Feb 2010, if they know FAD can't get there anytime soon? And also, likely, most eligible people in that period, already applied for AOS. I am hoping it is only the CP pressure. Or do they want to encourage more downgrade?

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Originally Posted by kb2013

By this time, I would think, most of them would have filed for AOS or others who wanted to downgrade would have done so, as the filing dates have been in 2010 for quite some time... Why are the EB3I filing dates still in Feb 2010, if they know FAD can't get there anytime soon? And also, likely, most eligible people in that period, already applied for AOS. I am hoping it is only the CP pressure. Or do they want to encourage more downgrade?

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USCIS wants to know how many EB2I folks are likely to downgrade if DF are pushed to Feb 2010 and beyond. Those who had not seen EB2 dates moved forward, will likely look at downgrade options (if EB2 is not moving forward), thereby providing insight for USCIS on how Final action dates for both categories need to be moved. EB2 and EB3 will move close to each other and in time, balance out.

Hi Gurus,

I have a supplement-J question. I am EB2 2010 having EAD and AP. I do not use H1 any more. I have a new offer from a start-up and they are willing to help me in filing supplement -J as well. I have a question in supplement -J employer section. One of the items in the employer section is about Gross Income and Net Income of the employer. As this is a small start-up they are still not at a level where they can make numbers (especially on the net income side). How would that affect in approval of Supplement -J. They are in cutting edge technology and have just started up with making some revenues. Any light on this would be appreciated.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by incredible

Hi Gurus,

I have a supplement-J question. I am EB2 2010 having EAD and AP. I do not use H1 any more. I have a new offer from a start-up and they are willing to help me in filing supplement -J as well. I have a question in supplement -J employer section. One of the items in the employer section is about Gross Income and Net Income of the employer. As this is a small start-up they are still not at a level where they can make numbers (especially on the net income side). How would that affect in approval of Supplement -J. They are in cutting edge technology and have just started up with making some revenues. Any light on this would be appreciated.

Thanks

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Hi

If it helps anyone, I have consulted an Attorney on this and his suggestion was to only include the Gross Revenue and leave out the Net Income. I am going to provide it like that and send Supplement -J. I will keep you all posted on how it goes.

Thank you for sharing, glad you decide to work on something that excites you.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Hi

If it helps anyone, I have consulted an Attorney on this and his suggestion was to only include the Gross Revenue and leave out the Net Income. I am going to provide it like that and send Supplement -J. I will keep you all posted on how it goes.

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Hey incredible - Good to see you have sorted this out.

Just to know the general approach - when you join an another company on EAD, is the idea that when your date becomes current would you go back to your sponsoring employer?

Also from what I have read when changing job on EAD you have to ensure 2 things - get Suppl J and that SOC code remains the same. Did you have to ensure something else as well?

Good luck.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Also from what I have read when changing job on EAD you have to ensure 2 things - get Suppl J and that SOC code remains the same. Did you have to ensure something else as well?

Good luck.

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The SOC code doesn't have to be the same. It has to be similar.

What is this ?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf

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Originally Posted by lville

What is this ?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf

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I-140 statistics from USCIS.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Hey incredible - Good to see you have sorted this out.

Just to know the general approach - when you join an another company on EAD, is the idea that when your date becomes current would you go back to your sponsoring employer?

Also from what I have read when changing job on EAD you have to ensure 2 things - get Suppl J and that SOC code remains the same. Did you have to ensure something else as well?

Good luck.

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Hi excalibur

Thanks for your suggestion. The SOC code based on what attorney told me need to be similar or same. In my case the SOC code used back in 2010 when labor was filed does not exist any more. I had to use an exactly same description but a different SOC code that has since replaced the original one.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Hi excalibur

Thanks for your suggestion. The SOC code based on what attorney told me need to be similar or same. In my case the SOC code used back in 2010 when labor was filed does not exist any more. I had to use an exactly same description but a different SOC code that has since replaced the original one.

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Thanks. Do you plan to go back to sponsoring employer when your date becomes current?

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Thanks. Do you plan to go back to sponsoring employer when your date becomes current?

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Not exactly. My 485 was filed back in 2012 (PD of 2010). The whole purpose of filing Supplement - J is work for the future employer when the date is current.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

I-140 statistics from USCIS.

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What does it mean ? 366,717 I140s approved in all EB1,2,3 categories in last 3 FYs (2017-18-19)? It seems small, I may be wrong !!

Can Guru's analyze and forecast?

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Originally Posted by FarAwayfromGC

What does it mean ? 366,717 I140s approved in all EB1,2,3 categories in last 3 FYs (2017-18-19)? It seems small, I may be wrong !!

Can Guru's analyze and forecast?

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I-140 is filed only for primary candidate. I-485 is filed with dependent (spouse + kids if any) so you multiple this number by atleast 1.5 to 3 whatever ratio make sense to you to get total number of GC needed. This is the simplest option.

Let me add few more complexity (reason why prediction became so hard)

1. You moved jobs and have to refile I-140, so duplication
2. Your spouse GC is also in progress, another I-140
3. You are porting and decided to file I-140 to move to EB3 or EB2


With multiplier of 2, based on i-140 approval rate around ~700K EB visa needed to clear past 3 yr application; each yr EB gets ~140K so ~280K folks are waiting in line just past 3 yrs. But this is worst case scenario, real world number will be much less coz of other factors which I listed above,