Printable View
Leo,Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
I think it will be a further month.
The Inventories now seem to be aligned to USCIS Quarters and the last one was as of 5th January 2011. The PDF was created on 01/11/2001.
I think we can probably expect the next Inventory in early April, after Q2 has finished at the end of March.
yup, I think they are trying to align with quarters now.
Looking at the last march, it appeared that it's due now:
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
who knows CIS:)
Veni
I will have to differ with you on this one.
Q
I too strongly beleive this bill will get passed. It is a fairly harmless bill on the surface and it does not harm the politcal capital of either party and actually plays into the pet theme of the republican party . It is high time the US immigration sytem should be reformed but outright or major reforms will not take place this year or the next . Next year is an election year and with unemployment rate close to 20% people just do not want to hear any politician campaign on letting in more people legal or not ( It is a different story that tech has an unemployment rate of only 5% compared to unemployment rate for manufacturing jobs ...not relevant to this discussion ) .
Anybody who has studied modern american history will know America had encouraged open immigration for a long time during the 1930's,1940's and 1950's untill the anti immigration lobby managed to shut it down permanently for a few decades. The technological boom of the 70's and demand for cheap technical labour opened the flood gates again. H1B's will always be perceived as the people taking away their jobs due to these images being firmly planted in their subconscious and the power's to be also manage to divert the public's attention .
Long story short.
Bill has a good chance of passing. I would not expect any other bill ( MS-Green card, Scrapping Visa lottery,Not counting family members etc etc ) to pass anytime soon in the next couple of years. If this bill passes it would reduce the spillover from EB5.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I would as much like to see Sachin get injured and India win the world cup without him. Granted he is exceptional, but this BS about winning the WC for one individual is too much to digest. India is much bigger than one 5ft guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
I would argue otherwise but this is not the right forum for this. But if you and most of the other fellow countrymen really doesn't care about his contribution and take pride in his achievements, and really hope he gets injured and we win WC w/o him, then I really feel sorry for Sachin that he was born in this nation and has to play for this country. Peace out!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs
I have updated the thread with March and April 2011 figures.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Thanks GCwait2007 for a good write up.
It is so easy for a beginner like me to understand the current situation and I am sure every one agrees on that since it doesn't contradict the present situation and the assumptions or dependencies used are way too straight forward.
I hope, you will update it as and when necessary just like the way qesehmk and others are doing.
Thanks gcwait2007 for the calculations, looks great. I believe as you say Feb - Apr 2007 is a good possibility.
Hi guys,
With my PD in Jan 07, I just got one more finger printing notice. This one is 3rd one for me. I got reply from trackitt forum that it is just a normal procedure and is sent if the system cannot update the finger prints.
I just wanted to share this as I am not sure if this is telling something about spill overs ... optimistic ... huh :)
GCW
Thanks. Nice work. If you want please provide me this with a gist and I can update the header with your paragraph (w credits to you!).
Your date calculation however seems quite off. In my opinion, to reach Mar 07 (or clear it) the visas available should be 26K or more. I think its the DoS data that you are looking at which is making the forecast a bit optimistic. Good one though! Didn't mean to criticize.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Keep the fingers crossed (except during finger printing)!! Good luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by TexDBoy
I hope you guys are right. I think reaching mid march would be really good movement (not that I am anywhere near that). Less than that would be quite disappointing. EB1 holds the key. Lets see, less than 3 mnths remaining for the July bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
An interesting calculation and good work. It is true that the Demand Data figures give more optimistic movements than the USCIS Inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
As I read it, Spillover is just that and the normal allocation must be added to obtain SOFAD, so 16k to reach the end of December 2006 equals 21.6k SOFAD.
I agree with Q that the figures might be a little optimistic.
a) Although it doesn't alter the final figure, the INA allows the VO to allocate up to 27% of Visas in each of the first 3 quarters. This is 757 per quarter, or around 250 per month.
b) A greater concern to me is the assumption that VO will use that number as a maximum they can allocate.
All the evidence says that the VO consistently ignore this number. They can do this because they also take into account historical patterns and any other information they have. If the VO is reasonably certain that EB2-IC will receive some Spillover, they will take that into account.
Say for example they are sure that at least 5k spare visas will be available, then the 27% per quarter could be based on 5,000 + 2,803, giving a monthly allotment of c. 700 Visas per month.
If Demand is less than that, then there is no need to retrogress Cut Off Dates, even if Demand is greater than 250 Visas per month.
In fact, if Trackitt ratios for EB2-I are the same in FY2011 as they were in FY2010, then EB2-I has already consumed around 2.3k Visas, rather than around the 1.4k you are assuming.
At the end of the year, if EB2-I had consumed say 5k, then it would need 5k - 2.8k + 16k = 18.2k Spillover (or 23.8k SOFAD) to reach the end of December 2006.
That, to me, is the conundrum - how many Visas have been and are going to be allocated to EB2-I that are "invisible" to the Demand Data.
Guys check out these numbers:
Attachment 66
About 8000 cases from district offices, I think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexDBoy
I know a case EB2 India with PD of Jan 2007 has been approved recently out of turn. So as Q mentioned 'keep the fingers crossed'.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Unfortunately, the picture is too small for me too read.
The Jan USCIS dashboard figures came out on Monday.
The "Pre adjudicated, awaiting a visa number" figure for TSC I-485 jumped from 65,980 in December 2010 to 76,156 in January 2011. That is an increase of 10,176.
If you consider it normally decreases by about 700, then the LO cases appear to be nearer 11k.
Somebody on Trackitt went through all the LO data in the Dashboard. In November 2010 there were 20,756 pre-adjudicated cases at LO. That had dropped to 18,259 in December 2010, but they remarked that some might already have been transferred by that time as a result of the memo. In January 2011, the figure has dropped to 2,131 as would be expected due to their transfer to TSC.
It isn't clear whether USCIS have caught up with entering the transfers from LO into the Inventory system. I guess future dashboard figures and Inventories will tell the tale.
Spectator,
Thanks for your info. Sorry about the picture. You can visit http://immigration-law.com/Canada.html and scroll down for figures. Just search 03/21/2011: January 2011 Updated on the page.
Spec / KD
Most of this transfer should really be FB or EB3. When it comes to EB the LO cases woudl be most likely prior to 2007.
EB2IC dates are already into mid 2006. And its hard to believe that LOs would have large amount of EB2IC cases.
So in nutshell this move will not be impactful to EB2IC dates movement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I have also been sent a biometrics notice(third time)eb2 india PD jan 07. My lawyer says they have a expiry of 15 months so they send notice after that time period.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
QQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Totally agree with your point about EB2. Remarkably little appeared to be EB2 in the Jan Inventory. The largest numbers transferred to TSC belonged to EB3-ROW and were pre 2006.
I think the vast majority are EB rather than FB, on the basis that the figures (for June 2010, if memory serves me correctly) agree very well with the 23k EB cases at LO mentioned by the Ombudsman in the 2010 Report. Of course, that may be mere coincidence.
Spec
They should employ you at USCIS!! You really bring real new relevant information to the table. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Source: The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/)
03/09/2011: May 2011 EB-2 Cut-Off Date Substantial Move-Ahead Predicted
AILA has reported that the EB-2 cut-off dates in Visa Bulletin in May 2011 may progress ahead substantially because of large unused EB-1 numbers since October 2010 since it has about 12,000 unused EB-2 numbers. Very good news from AILA and Mr. Oppenheim.
I noticed that I140 approval times are 8 months now (Except for premium) this will slow down the EB2 ROW & EB1 approvals and will increase SOFAD for this year, most folks who port file in premium.
Thanks for that update Teddy. Looking forward to the May bulletin now. Anyone with access to the AILA website to get some details ? http://aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx
This is a very interesting development and suggests Trackitt data was correct. It's great to finally get the corroborative evidence we badly needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
There is better information from Ron Gotcher http://www.immigration-information.c...ability-13774/
He seems to be quoting what Charles Oppenheim said:
The May VB is going to be VERY interesting!Quote:
EB2 visa availability
The American Immigration Lawyers Association reports that Charlie Oppenheim provided them with the following information:
It appears that the surge in EB1 filings started to tail off around October 1st. Presumably, this means that those who wanted to upgrade from EB2 to EB1 have now filed their petitions.Quote:
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”
“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”
Thanks for posting the new details, I think what is being implied here that till date there are 12K unused EB1 visa numbers available which they do not expect EB1 to use so they intend to start fall down to EB2 so the comment really is about EB1. I feel since this is half year only we should double this number to full year. If what Iam inferring is true then the Jul Aug - 2007 line has a good chance to be broken this year itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I read it slightly differently. The phrase:
implies to me that it would be 12k total.Quote:
Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category.
A quick look at my model implies a movement to anything from Feb 2007 to towards the end of April 2007, depending on whether you use USCIS Inventory or DOS Demand figures. A greater movement in Cut Off Dates also implies greater "effective" Porting numbers, so I have raised my assumed amount from 4k to 6k to account for that.
I look forward to the discussion that I am sure will follow this announcement.
It looks like 12k EB1 numbers are from Q1 and Q2 only, atleast half of that should be available from Q3 and Q4
half yearly spill over finally
Copied from immigrationvoice.org posting by EB2-buddy
A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Snippet from Chinese immigration Website abt this news
If you remember, this was the site which published the Bulletin sometime back while uscis delayed it and all of us were breaking our heads to predict the cut-off dates
==================
A Sliver of Hope! EB-2 Visa Number Movement
Friday, 25 March 2011 08:29 Jan Pederson
The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year
Hi Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for the offer. I was traveling abroad and had to focus on the consulting issues I was working for.
Against my name GCW07, you can mention the range of 20K to 24K (long range) and average at 22K. I believe that the cut off date would get into 2007 and ranging between Feb to April 2007.
If DOS is going to use 12K spillover (from EB1 to EB2) tp clear EB2 India China backlog, then in May VB, we can expect the cut off date to move between Sep 06 to Oct 06.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
First of all Teddy and others a big thanks. This is a great news and creditable.
As you have already pointed out the big question is "are teh numbers TOTAL or are they coming purely from EB1". The naswer tothis question determines how long the dates will move ...
If the numbers are in total then that is not hugely exciting ... since we already factored in almost 9K of teh 12k in our model.
On the otherhand nuvikas's information says they are not only purely EB1 but they are semi-annual ... indicating the numbers are really 24K incremental when extrapolated to full year.
If true that would mean the dates move in Jan 2009 or become totally current for a while.
So where is the reality? I guess I don't know. But if we take the middle path - I would assume (for now until better data emerges) that 12K is full year incremental to our model.
This means the dates will by Sep 11 move beyond Jul 2007 for EB2IC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nuvikas
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,
I think you have summed it up very nicely.
The way I parse the statement is:
Based on the USCIS statement that there has been a decline in filings and that they do not expect a change in the number use pattern (for the rest of the year), then at least 12k additional numbers will be available to EB2.
We all know that Charles Oppenheim is quite conservative, so the fact he say "at least" is significant to me. That represents a minimum, which he is probably lowballing to give some wiggle room if the situation changes.
In fact, I would expect it to be more than that based on the current run rate in Trackitt.
Based on all EB1 then they would reach 20k total approvals if the current rate continues.
Based on EB1-India approvals alone, then all of EB1 might reach 24k total approvals if nothing changes.
That is more like a potential 16-20k total spare visas.
I can't quite reconcile how any pending backlog of applications to adjudicate is going to affect that. Not at all if the adjudication time remains long, I guess.
Maybe it is just my conservative nature speaking and I might be in a minority of one. I don't have a problem with that, since the wording is rather vague.
Let's hope for a better expression of the facts. I would guess CO will add a comment into the May VB about this situation.
Conservative is good since by nature most of us are optimists! So its better to be conservative when trying to predict something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Since there are so many preadjudicated cases I would imagine they shouldn't have difficulty using the excess visas in EB2 itself. Otherwise EB3IC will be so happy to use some of these anyway!
In either case, it seems people past July 2007 have a good chance to file... at least a year ahead from that date. My opinion is that if teh date is going to go to Jul 2007 anyway then DoS will make it "Current-Current" and open the flood gates for a month and then everybody gets in and again a long wait starts!
However don't expect teh gates to open before Jun 2011.
http://www.usvisainfo.com/news-mainm...-movement.html
"The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year."
If the demand for EB1 in First Half is 10k-11k (50% of last year) and same trend is predicted for rest of year, Can we expect spill over 20K+ from EB1 alone to EB2, Am I missing some thing here?, If yes this is a great news for EB2 IC.
why so much excitement for just one week movement..could that be a typo..?Quote:
Originally Posted by Osaka001
Spec I believe that that they are saying 12K is available as of now. So if we empirically calculate SOFAD it would be 12K + 12K coming similarly similarly in the second half + ~ 6K this would make it 30K. They would not be projecting for the remainder of the 6 months now IMHO they have come to the concludion that atleast 12K is available for immediate allocation I could be completely wrong on this. Iam going by the worst case scenario that this 12K is total it may well be just EB1. lets all hope for the very best.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The excitement is not for One week movement, it is about 12K unused visas for EB1 in the H1, the trend is expected to continue..If it is true, I am excited , don't know about others :-)
Any movement attributable to SPILLOVER / out-of-category-SOFAD has to be bigger than 1 week.
So if the movement is going to be 1 week then it will indicate that spillover or out-of-category-sofad will not have taken place yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Osaka001
http://www.immigration-information.c...ability-13774/
Quote Originally Posted by pod1 View Post
Ron,
Thanks for the information. Does it mean the May bulletin which comes in April can have 3-4 months movement in PD cutoff date for EB2-I?
Ron's Answer:
My guess is that you may see a jump of up to one year. It will definitely advance several months. How far beyond that is anyone's guess, but a 2007 cutoff date would not surprise me at all. We are right now combing through our cases to identify and prep everyone with India EB2 priority dates earlier than mid-2007.