Watch out for April bulletin. That would be the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and EB1 India would be current or close to current in the next 3 months. EB2 and Eb3 India would have to move further.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
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Watch out for April bulletin. That would be the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and EB1 India would be current or close to current in the next 3 months. EB2 and Eb3 India would have to move further.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
As long as there is cut off date, some body would always miss the cutoff. This month it is him, next month it is going to somebody else.Quote:
Originally Posted by monsieur
There have been reports that DT admin (S.Miller) is working overtime to issue new regulations before they leave office on 20Jan. Among those are H1B, H4, etc., type regulations. I am even surprised that they moved the EB2 days by 9 days. DT admin will try to burn everything before they leave. So we should not expect anything before Feb VB. Hopefully it will be issued after Jan 20th and not before Jan20th. I really thought that the DOS career officials will move it. Seeing how DT is firing anyone and everyone, I think DOS/CO will try to stay under the radar and invisible till Jan20th.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Did your friend’s friend’s friend’s friend said this?:DQuote:
Originally Posted by idliman
If we think Miller is working overtime to stop the visa movement to prevent some exceptionally skilled and regular skilled people who are here in the country even before he hit puberty, then I think we should be writing conspiracy theory novels :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
I think you guys missed two articles that came out quoting Jessica Vaughan. I found the CNN one. I think there was one in Hill also. They said that the admin is calling conservatives asking them what can they do before leaving office. Mind you that DT fired Christopher Krebs for going against him. I think it is reasonable that DOS is trying to stay low. There is no check-in with CO articles recently. No word of what happened to the 25K GCs that were announced in June 2020.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I don't know what USCIS is thinking. The EB-2 India FAD should be at May 1, 2010 or close to it by now. The more time it takes to reach May 1,2010 the more visas will be wasted in FY 21. Even the new applications should have receded by now so much less workload. What else is stopping them to approve the cases that don't have interview mandate?
No CNN and The Hill articles did.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB32010
Interference. There is no other way of explaining this at all. We have spent enough time here to see what's the math and what's happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
I called USCIS ph no, didnot ise chat, the no i called 800-375-5283Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Mentioned 485 status check, it asks for reciept number, told ‘i dont have one but i have A#” .. after couple of repeats connected to live agent
By the way when did your application reach USCIS
Mine was in Dallas texas service center..
Interference only in EB-2 and EB-3 categories? In the last 3 months EB-1 India moved 10 months. I find it hard to believe. Most, if not all, of these EB-2 and EB-3 backloggers are already in the country and employed (Well paid too). Kicking the can down the road for only two categories don't make much sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
25 K was allocated to Eb1 India. In 2018 we had about 34,000 Primaries waiting for approval till March 2018Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Since this is a predications thread - here's a shot at trying to determine why EB2 is not moving as much...
Eb2 today has Eb2 + Eb3 > Eb2 as part of the queue. People with PDs < Apr 2010 have had a lot of time to move to EB2. The pending inventory simply does not reflect this. For someone in that group, who originally filed in Eb3 and ported to EB2, they have a choice to make. Either wait in the EB2 queue or go back to EB3. However from what I know going back to EB3 means they need to file a new petition. Which will take time. So for those who are prior to Apr 2010, they may not be keen on starting a downgrade at this time.
This would imply that EB2 has all those applications that need to be processed.
Granted there are EB2 users who ported to EB3 back in 2018 - 2019. But those were not much. Most who did that were the ones who missed the 2012 window to file.
I am not an expert in calculations but a quick back of the book calculation with perms split at 1:2:3 ratio, 70% EB3 > EB2 porting, 2.5 dependents per application and 0% EB2 > EB3 porting tells me there are about 23k applications in the EB2 queue till it hits Apr 2010.
Considering EB2 gets 5.9k before any spillover calculations which in theory should be available Oct 1st, even my calculations are convervative.
Long story short - I think the Eb2 > Eb3 factor may only play out for PDs after Apr 2010. EB2 will continue to lag till it clears this hurdle. This also means, anyone with PD > May 2010 should look into the EB3 downgrade
another slightly strange thing is the slowing pace of movement for EB2-1 and EB3-1 over the last 3 bulletins. EB3 movement was 106 days in Oct, 44 days in Nov, and 14 days in Dec. EB2 moved 55 days in Oct, 21 days in Nov, and 9 days in Dec. Similar slow down can be seen in movement of EB2-China and Eb3-china also.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
They have been approving cases at a decently fast clip based on trackitt data. So a slow down in FAD movement does not look to be processing capacity related, but more related to visas numbers usage itself. Its difficult to make any sense when so little information is shared. Hopeing the new quarter will result in better news, and that pace would pick up after all applications have been received for the year.
why/how did he miss? his date is 03/15/10 which is now current for FAD, no?Quote:
Originally Posted by monsieur
i dont see dec visa bulletin any more on state website
It's everyone 'before' that FD.Quote:
Originally Posted by bones20
Can this mean they can pass the H4 EAD revoke rule by jan 20?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
I doubt if they will do that as they have not done that for the last ~4 years. About the date movement , I had mentioned a couple of weeks ago that we will need to wait for the Biden Administration to staff these departments and give them the green signal to start issuing the GCs. So it will be the Feb or probably the march bulletins where dates will moveQuote:
Originally Posted by Justmyself
The Current administration will do what it can to stop/slow the issuance hoping that there will be less time for the depts to issue the 265K GCs. This windfall of GCs is an unintended consequence of the consulate closures and they will do what ever they can to "poison the well" and see to it that issuance will get harder for the Biden Admin as they need to complete it by sept 2021.
Those in the govt depts will not move dates until they feel its safe as they don't want their heads to roll given that the current administration has less than 60 days left. They will just wait it out till the coast is clear or they fell the threat no longer exists.
So it will be the Feb or probably the march bulletins where dates will move as the departments will not feel the heat from the admin to stop/slow the issuance .
PLease clear the cache or go incognito . Firefox has issue with caching for the state websiteQuote:
Originally Posted by kbakshi
Guys,
I am an avid follower of this forum and appreciate the contribution from all of you that helps me stay informed in my path to GC. I did some research on how many green cards are issued in the various employment preference categories by country of birth, and found a disturbing trend for EB2 visas issued for people whose county of birth is India. Between 2012 and 2015 EB2-I got 15k+ visas each year on an average, which went down to 3.3k on an average between 2016 and 2019, a drop of 80%!!!
Based on this, I think granting EB2 visas is not a priority for the current admin. Most stunning is the stat that only 2,604 GCs were issued in EB2-I category for the whole of 2019, which means they did not meet the 7% country quota of 2800+ visas for that year. This also leads me to believe that most of the 2021 spillover visas for Eb2/3 may just get wasted, unless the new admin takes an about turn and follows the policy of Obama admin (see data for 2012-2015). I welcome your thoughts/comments.
source: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat.../LPR/LPRcounty
==========================
Year EB1-I EB2-I EB3-I (Skilled)
----- ------ ------ ----------------
2012 8,152 17,878 2,571
2013 8,253 15,693 6,862
2014 11,314 21,024 3,102
2015 10,527 6,853 5,695
2016 9,289 3,823 3,986
2017 11,122 2,843 5,414
2018 9,676 3,894 4,891
2019 8,001 2,604 4,135
Attachment 1765
May be Dumb question. Help me understandQuote:
Originally Posted by mitul75
I am not good at numbers. I have seen these kind of year wise numbers earlier and with following this forum (Thanks to Gurus), came to know that those years got spill over which allocates extra for EB2I or EB3I and when no spill over only 7%.
So, with more or less 7% every year as per Law, what exactly happening to EB2I or EB3I?
Are these categories supposed to get more spillover every year which is not getting?
I think they get a lot more horizontal spillover each year than what’s been used. Again this is purely based on historical trend. It may well be that ROW has consumed a lot more of these visas over the last few years, but that too does not explain the huge consistent drop in EB2-I. EB1-I has been the recipient of 10k plus visas each year, which is expected given the demand from EB1C. But the spillovers from other categories are just not being allocated to EB2, either due to lack of resources or due to lack of will, or both. I may be totally off base in this analysis, so would like to hear from gurus.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcconnect
Things may not be that bad. Slow movement so far may only mean horizontal spillover has not been applied yet. If that's the case, once it starts getting applied, the pace of movement should increase.
I feel the same .. they are still looking country cap per quarter limitQuote:
Originally Posted by rabp77
According to the link at [1], USCIS approved 73,000 I-485 petitions in the first 3 quarters of FY 2020.
[1]: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...s_FY2020Q3.pdf
The article offers nothing new other than few quotes and wish list.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
If you anecdotally look at trackitt, there are a number of people who are still waiting for receipts for filings as early as second-third week of Oct. It's very hit and miss as some who filed in third or fourth week have receipts. So safe to say, USCIS as usual are flying blind without a good handle on the number of applications, especially downgrades. So no idea how and when they would have a proper count and accordingly start moving FADs and start issuing GCs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
They have enough Eb2 pending files till May 2010 and Eb3 had reached April 2010 couple of years back itself.
The speed at which the EB1 India has moved over the 6-7 bulletins, shows they can move if they want.
Agree that they have enough EB2I files until May 2010 but TSC seems to have stopped processing 485 files. Does anyone know where they are spending their manpower on, these days? NSC seems to be doing okay.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Here's some additional data that I compiled. Comparing the data from 2012-2015 and 2016-2019 and taking an average of the total between these 2 segments, we are getting the following 3 factors that are primarily contributing to the huge drop in EB2-I visas on a YoY basis:
-- 16% increase in EB2 ROW visas
-- 24% increase in EB visas through CP
-- 71% increase in visa wastage
Year EB2-I EB2-ROW EB(AOS) EB(CP) Wasted Visas (based on 140k limit)
================================
2012 17,878 13,028 106,968 19,137 13,895
2013 15,693 23,554 119,432 21,144 -
2014 21,024 11,198 114,347 21,365 4,288
2015 6,853 18,888 106,393 21,613 11,994
2016 3,823 18,234 100,108 25,056 14,836
2017 2,843 20,031 101,020 23,814 15,166
2018 3,894 19,252 100,885 27,345 11,770
2019 2,604 19,872 101,890 28,538 9,572
So even with consulates closed at least until February 2021, there's a good chance of spillover visas getting wasted no matter what. Again, this might change dramatically with the new admin and things will start improving from day 1, or it may be too late if they wait till Q3/Q4 of this FY.
I do believe that we need to organize and open a line of communication with Zoe Lofgren's office to atleast make her aware that USCIS's current speed will lead to large wastage.
I may not be able to give you a complete picture. But there are multiple factors that come in play every year.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcconnect
We had EB1C filing increasing between 2012 and 2018 where international managers on both H1 and L1 could file and get the GCs with in 6 months to start with and then that response times increased with more backlog applications.
Also we had a good spill across from EB2 ROW during those years for EB2I and spill over from EB1 as the usage was not that high. Once EB1 I and C started getting backlogged the spillover to EB2 either stopped or reduced.
Having applications with a 485 filed in 2012 for EB2I and still not process, having the visa wastage every year is what really hurts and that is what should not have happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by mitul75
Agree completely. What can change things for the current FY are 2 things -
1. Fewer Consular Processing & fewer ROW demand for the rest of FY'21 due to COVID and the time to get everyone vaccinated
2. Intent to not waste visas and speed things up in EB2/3 lines - this is most important, since with the right intent they are fully capable of approving 20-30k EB2s in a single year as seen in the past. If Biden's admin gets rid of the interview process, that will speed things up dramatically.
I don't think interviews are delaying the process in short term. We still have substantial number of applicants who need to get approved even though they were/are current since three months. What is causing the delay?Quote:
Originally Posted by mitul75
I guess this is the same trend we've seen in the past several months, right? Moving the dates conservatively by 2-3 days to 2-3 weeks at a time. Logically speaking, they may have assumed that EB2-I gets around 5,500 visas this year including SO and assuming no vertical or horizontal spills from other EB categories and hence moving the dates cautiously. That's the worst case scenario, and if that happens, that would perhaps move the dates to the end of 2009 at best by end of FY-21.Quote:
Originally Posted by ak7419
But realistically speaking, they'll find a huge number of unused visas in Q4 due to point #1 above, and then they won't have enough time to reallocate those visas. Jan bulletin will give us a clear indication how they want to move the dates in Q2 & Q3. I don't expect anything dramatic happening in the first few months of Biden presidency, so without a course correction as early as January, we may be looking at more visa wastage.
The objective of the interview was to avoid giving GC to people who have abandoned the process and moved on. However it does really slow down the process, back in 2012 my co worker had his date current for Jan 2012 bulletin and he got his GC by March 2012. Those time lines are un achievable anymore with interviewQuote:
Originally Posted by ak7419
USCIS has been turned into an enforcement agency instead of a service agency. The processes have been designed to slow down the approval process in conformance with the objectives of the DT administration. After Jan 20, DHS will be run by a Cuban immigrant who was heading the USCIS when DACA was formulated. I am sure they will have the means and staff to undo the road blocks crafted by the DT admin. Everything from Supp-J, interview mandate, expiry of medicals, public charge, etc., is designed to slow down the process. I am especially mad at how the Supp-J was designed to force people to go back the the company attorneys. Previously I-485 was an individual petition.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Very well said!Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman