I know Q. I know. :D I'm on the bubble for 2012 EAD so any "positive" news gets me perked up.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
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I know Q. I know. :D I'm on the bubble for 2012 EAD so any "positive" news gets me perked up.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I just saw this article in the Hindu newspaper. I have known this for a very long time just based on personal and ancedotal experiences. Now we have it straight from the horse's mouth. US consulate in Chennai did an study of the applications it had received in 2008 and 2009 and documented the highest centres with documentation fraud.No wonder even genuine applicants are getting hit with an 221(g) if you get an appointment at the city mentioned in the article.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/the-ind...cle1712443.ece
Both types of fraud was documented (immigrant and non immigrant) . :) I just hope they do an study for the EB1C category as well in the various cities and they will find a lot more.
I agree. The chance is too slim. It's all bluffing on ** website.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think it is important to keep in mind that the number of cases are minuscule 3083/756,000 or 0.41% of total Non Immigrant Visa applications. In addition not all are related to H1B. Therefore, I think this is not the real reason for all the 221(g). Also, in most cases the 221(g) is reaffirmed by USCIS. However, it just takes 3 to 4 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
Hey Teddy and others, after the August 2011 update, the delta between what it was last year at this time, is now 25,160 minus 20,831 is just 4,329 compared to July 11 vs July 10 which was 10.5k which you pointed out earlier.
Now considering that this happened in August 2011, and was the reason for the surprise huge USCIS pointed out demand for EB1, EB2 ROW, we can say that the difference delta is just 4.3k instead of 10.5k for year to year compare. Once they release September 2011 dashboard data, maybe the 4.3k can come down even further comparing Sep 2011 vs Sep 2010, and hopefully the movement stoppage for Sep VB FY 2011 took care of this damage we may think, save maybe 2k (a number I am throwing out of the hat).
Do you think that the backlog is a bit of a less concern now, I am not saying it is totally gone, but maybe earlier it was 9 out of 10 on scale of messing us up, and now it is 5 out of 10.
Nishant thanks for this update. Aug 2011 saw an almost unprecedented number of I140 approvals. It was the May - Jun approval trend that hurt the Aug and Sep VB. Normally there would be a 2 month time lag in I140 hitting the I485 queue. The overall backlog is still at 25K level which is still 10K higher than last year. It will be interesting to see how USCIS intends to clear it. Clearing it out too fast and now itself will hurt the SOFAD for this year. The demand intake if it happens sooner something like next month will not be impacted even if I140 backlog is cleared out. I would say 5-10 is out of the bag as the backlog was at 35K now its 25K it has to come down to 15K. We probably have felt the impact of only 3-10. Let’s keep a watch on the dashboard and the approval trends for EB2 ROW and EB1.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
The additional 4.3K delta might mean similar number of EB2 ROW + EB1 applications. Lets normalize this to 3K. So potentially if I140 backlog were to be brought to same levels as last year then SOFAD would diminish by as much as 10K. This would impact actual GC issuance more than the demand intake. Lets pray for all friends that their date becomes current in the next bulletin. Later will be more difficult.
Thank you Teddy. I was too afraid to say it myself, but I agree that 15k is the level the agencies might be comfortable with to show their books clean.
Watching approval trends for EB2ROW and EB1 correlated with the dashboard is the key as you said.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
guys and guru's... is it really important to file 485 on the first day itself? please let me know.
Nishant/ Teddy , what does this mean to cut-off dates for receiving GCs for fiscal 2012. Now does this impact how much of swing CO will make forward to capture the demand . Earlier projections I believe were onto March/Apr 2008 . What's your gut feeling for the next vb ? How much of a significance will the next VB be for the coming months. Also are we able to correct the SOFAD to around 15K range . Gosh it doesn't sound very good .Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Ok, here's my rough take on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
FY 2011 SOFAD was 30k.
If we take worst case situation of 10k backlog reduction to get stockpile to 15k pending 140, and if we consider all other things remain same (SYA same year approvals for EB1, EB2ROW, incoming rate because of bad economy, scrutiny on H1, EB1 Kazarian, and so on), then let's take SOFAD reduced by 8k (assuming 2k denials for 140, 80% approval rate), hence 22k SOFAD.
Now let's think about encouraged EB5, and EB1C (multinational manager) PP (premium processing which may begin next year), so let's take 4k further SOFAD reduction.
This brings worst case SOFAD to be 18k.
How far can 18k SOFAD take you. that can be seen in Spec's table in facts and data, with your own porting estimate plugged in.
Now, I do think that CO will not go into about what can happen this FY 2012 because of what is USCIS's strategy in terms of 140 backlog reduction, or EB5 encouragement, or EB1C PP etc. What he will take into account is how much SOFAD happened in past trend, and looking at last year, and even year before that, it has to be 30k figure plus a buffer of some number as you can't assume 100% 485 approval rate, although I suspect it must be pretty close to it.
To get to 30k figure, again if you see Spec's table, dates have to reach April 2008 whereabouts. And for these to be meaningfully available for any SO in Q4 FY 2012, they need to be in 6 months earlier, and hence, Q's take that before March 2012, dates should move till around April 2008.
So this does prove why CO put he anticipates significant date movement, mind that, for him I think even 3 months more might be significant, so we can't think significant means a year.
My gut feeling is 1st January 2008 for next VB, I would have said with much more certainty if CO had not put the words : not on a monthly basis, I frankly have been very tormented by those words, they don't make sense.
If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next.
So I have understood why he mentioned he anticipates significant date movement ahead, but I don't understand why he said not on a monthly basis. I am not ready to believe CO will try quarterly spillover in this day and age where there is so much 140 backlog for EB1 and EB2ROW. In fact if you ask someone like Ron Gotcher, he does not see where we think quarterly spillover is also allowed as per law.
If the demand capture happens sooner like next bulletin itself there will be minimal impact on that. However actual approvals will be far lower if the entire backlog were to be cleared. My projection has always been a little conservative than all others because of the I140 backlog itself. Last year was the Eb1 year in terms of SOFAD because the Kazarian memo slowed down I140 approvals but the applications never came down, however if they choose to clearing he I140backlog then most of the EB1 related SOFAD will disappear. This will move things towards the worst case scenario. Let’s keep a watch on this but too early to panic. Let’s wait to hear what Q, Veni & Spec have to say on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
Nishanth Bhai..keep saying that magic date , Jan 1, 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
And believe me, I feel really sorry for anyone on the right side of this date and missing out. I know how it feels, I have been feeling that since last 3 weeks. It's not something you wish on an enemy also. If you talk about my wish or dream, I would pray for best case of mid 2008 huge BTM in one shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Teddy has put it very nicely. Trackitt approvals, atleast for NSC is showing that people with earlier receipt/notice dates are getting approvals first. There are a few exceptions but mostly I think they approving by ND. Also, some L2 officers have mentioned to people that cases are being approved by notice/receipt date. Obviously, no one knows for sure. My notice date was way behind but I still got approval earlier. Maybe it was because of the Congressional enquiry ?Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
But, it's very important to get everything in order and fill application properly even if you file few days later. Because otherwise a RFE will delay things anyways.
Nishant/Dec_2007,
I am in the same boat, while I really hope and wish that my friends beyond 2008 get to file their 485 I personally wanted ( i am being honest here) to get onboard this coming next VB. Being so close to getting Current and to wait for the next VB is a pain. I really wish your words of Mid 2008 and beyond (BTM) comes true.
Sandeep, wats your PD ? I agree , ever since last VB came out , it has been a gut wrenching experience for me . Now that we are so close yet so far , it is really hanging in the balance. Everyday I literally scour through every page for any little info I could devour. I'm actually getting all my medicals scheduled ahead of next VB to just have everything in order to fly the paperwork to my attorney if it becomes current. Let's hope there is reprieve for many others . End of the day , all we can do is just hope for the best , but I must say these guys Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni and all others are doing such a great job ,besides sharing their valuable insights they are really making our wait bearable.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandeep11
Thanks for being so explicit Nishant.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Thanks Teddy .Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
EB2_Dec2007-
My PD is Dec 4 2007.
As you said Q, Nishant , Teddy , Veni, Spector have all done a very good job. You are right in saying that their expertise has helped us take things in the right way. I truly wish good luck to everyone out there. Good Luck to you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
Mine is Dec 4th too. Nice coincidence. Good luck to both of us . Let's see next VBQuote:
Originally Posted by sandeep11
Have we figured out the source of the visa numbers for the approvals received in Oct?
It's not possible for CO to use IC's yearly allocation in first month.
Cheers
Nat
"If he follows F2A FB strategy he did last year, he has to move this next VB. In this last year, what he did was he initially moved in quantity of 3 months around, and in the last two VB, he moved 2 months a piece. This year for EB2 I/C, he has moved 3 months, 3.5 months, so what's next. "
I also compared F2A FB with EB2, but I noticed that F2A advanced significantly in the summer of 2010. In the Fall of 2011, F2A advanced in smaller steps. So it's in a different situation compared to EB2.
I hope CO can advance EB2 in bigger steps.
I saw many EB2-C got their GC only several days after they got EAD/AP. What's the point of applying EAD/AP? It is not useful for the folks with post-2007.07 PD.
If he can advance EB2 in bigger steps, then EAD/AP will be useful for the folks after 2007.07. He should do that! What's the point of EAD/AP?
In my opinion, he should let all the folks before 2009.12 apply for EAD/AP. If he does not do that, that means he is cold blooded and has no mercy on EB2 C/I.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I agree with you on this bolded point. AC21 also kicks in only after 180 days of applying, so EAD is useless for primary applicant if he gets laid off or any job problems before these 180 days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I don't know what personal grudge you have on the guy but you need to cut him some slack. He is already bending/breaking the rules to move cut-off dates so early in the year more than annual limit. Above all, even allocating visas for the approvals. What else do you want him to do?Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I don't have personal grudge on him. My point is that they should treat EB immigrants better. EB immigrants are not treated well now. Is it humane to let people wait for five or ten years? Of course EB people have a choice to leave, but is it so easy after you spend ten years or more here? It does not violate any law if they move PD to 2009.12. If they have mercy on EB immigrants, they should let them apply for EAD/AP and give them a better living condition. Without EAD/AP, EB immigrants' life is unstable and risky.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
I do agree that EAD & AP has been of immense help for 2007 filers and now it is not going to be of much use unless dates move forward drastically for EB2-I/C people. It might help some EB2 folks with PDs around March - June 2008 who might not get I485 approval but might be able to file I485 this year. For EB3 filers also, it won't help as EB3 dates are progressing very slowly. During 2007, one needed to apply for EAD and AP separately and now it is combined with I485 application. USCIS can take stock of this situation and see what purpose EAD & AP are serving. The processing time for EAD & AP is ~3 months and one is getting I485 approval within 3 - 4 months, assuming the PD is current.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
It is none of CO's business how EB immigrants are treated;he is hired to do his job as per law. For reliefs and action we have Congress and Senate. This is more of a reason that everyone should support and work towards HR3012, as this is only resort that will bring so called mercy.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I agree law does not violate such movement as long as demand is less than supply but CO has already made movement more than the Section 201 (a)(2) of INA act allows for first three-quarter ( ie 27% of annual limit) . He already did a favor to EB2 C/I where he moved dates more than the supply. Any movement after this is just blessing for us.
EAD is provision via 8 CFR 274a(c)(9) for those whose AOS is pending adjudication. It was introduced when it was thought that retrogression would be less common. I am not sure if word retrogression is ever used in INA Act. It was first used by USCIS later. EAD was never meant to be used as an extended license to change multiple employers and was thought as a gap filler until permanent residency is approved within few months from filing. DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC. CO has already gone enough criticism for what he availed to 2007 filers after making dates current. I doubt he will go through this again in near future.
I understand Qblogfan's point of view. It's not about a personal grudge. It's just that some people are in a job they are happy with. But there are many more people who are not or some people fall into circumstances which makes GC/EAD/AP really important etc etc.....It all depends on one's personal situation.
The whole system is really messed up..there is no set pattern/consistency or clarity. Eb2 and Eb3 is a mess. Who is to be blamed? The whole system and CO becomes an easy target.....but he is obviously doing his job and has to answer to people higher up.
He is definitely doing something different this time which is highly commendable.
Bravo !!! A very well thought out post. Agree 100%. That being said, it'd be nice to have the EAD. I'm quite happy in my current job but I keep getting calls with significant salary bumps.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
I agree that qbf is too aggressive in criticizing CO. But CO and VO has done nothing to alleviate the pain of EB2IC. On the contrary by not doing quarterly spillovers as LAW requires them to do, he and VO has violated the law.
Whatever they are doing now is not doing any favor to anybody. They need to replenish USCIS inventory and they are assisting USCIS in that. Again they seem to be bending and breaking law. But I have no doubt they are NOT doing it to help EB2IC.
Of course although I have these thoughts I do not go on a tirade against CO. I agree that it doesn't hurt to be polite. Its just that I do think that CO and VO's actions have consistently hurt EB2IC interests.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I understand where everyone is coming from but being polite does not hurt.
Regarding quarterly spillover I had talked to few folks in past. Complication about using quarterly spillover is verbiage in Section 202 (a)(5) which states "A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."
Calendar quarter starts in January while fiscal year starts in October. Earliest they can use that spillover is in April where other remainder of calendar quarters starts. Hence by the time DOS gets information on this from USCIS, it is time to determine May VB in second week of April. This is where you usually see first effect of quarterly spillover, which in reality is half yearly spillover. Problem with verbiage is quarterly spillover though starts in calendar quarter has to be used by end of fiscal year. So we cannot blame CO for this as he is doing exactly what laws call for ie to use spillover staring April.
As seen in trackitt, EB2I approvals are still trickling in which is surely a good news for EB2-I/C folks. I see around 115 EB2I (incl NIW) trackitt approvals so far for the month of Oct and there have been ~3 - 4 approvals today. I think if this rate of approval continues in near future, most of the 2007 filers will be cleared by the end of this calendar year. This will also pave the way for the PWMB and new filings (i.e. post Aug'07 folks whose PDs got current) to be adjudicated sometime from early-mid 2012.
I did a quick trackitt check for I-485 applications filed between May 2011 and August 2011. 168 Out of ~500 approved so far with a median time of ~81 days. By the time all of them get approved, the median time for approval could get to 200 days - if there is no retrogression.
As we now move away from the era of preadjudicated cases of 2007 and start the cycle of build up yearly inventory and use it, these kind of metrics are going to important. In the earlier era, date movement translated into direct visa consumption due to preadjudication. Now the processing time will impact the approval rate and thereby influencing the date movement on yearly basis. The monthly basis of date movement will still be at the discretion of CO.
I think there is nothing wrong in criticizing CO, USCIS et.al. These individuals and organizations have been created to be inefficient so that potential immigrants could be frustrated to their wits end. How else could the wastage of visas, delays in processing H1B, ripping of employers by premium processing could be explained ?
BTW on a happier note, Wish all of Q Blog readers Happy and Prosperous Diwali. Thanks Q for creating this wonderful ecosystem that brings clarity to the whole immigration process. Congratulations to all those who have become current and pray that by next Diwali we are in a better state than we are currently.
Thanks,
Arun
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Anything special with 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
smuggymba, take it easy and move on. Lets keep our focus on predictions.
Calender quarter just means 3months. It does not mean it starts in Jan. Fiscal quarter is 13 weeks (52 weeks/4). What the rule states is that SO can happen every 3 calendar months rather than every 13 weeks (which could be mid calendar month)Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
Bottom line is that it is still unclear as to where the visas for these approvals are coming from. He could just be assuming a certain SO for Q1 and correct it later if it's too high or too low.
Thanks. Oct-Dec also is a calendar quarter. So in the past the spillover should've happened.
However there is something interesting I read yesterday that I never read before. How could I have missed it all along?
"A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter."
Its that "during the remainder of" that I have been missing. So basically what CO is doing right now is he is anticipating low EB2ROW usage and allocating the visas to EB2IC. No law is broken or bent. (Rather he is doing what he should've been doing last 4 years).
Again he is not doing it suddenly out of love of EB2IC. He is doing it and will continue to do it to teh extent USCIS can replenish their inventories sufficiently. That's great. So basically we might see dates moving steadily through at least next couple of bulletins.
I really do not engage in predicting next bulletin and the dates. Its futile. Nobody can read CO's mind. But I think we are on track to hit Jan 2008 well before I predicted I will hit it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
There is nothing special with 2009. I just think they should allow half of the applicants to get EAD/AP to make their life easier. These officials don't understand the pain of the long waiting. Maybe more than 100 thousand EB2 applicants are still waiting without EAD/AP. There is nothing wrong to grant them EAD/AP to allow them have a safer and more enjoyable life.
The reason why I criticized CO is that he has made many mistakes in the past. The critism is not for CO personally, but for his organization. I am happy about the unexpected movement in this fall, but he or his organization has made so many mistakes in the past. Just one example: the spillover to EB2 didn't start until the summer of 2008. Before that he spilled most of the visas to EB3. The law is the same, but how could they make such stupid mistakes? EB2 got the first backlog in October 2005. He or his organization didn't do spillover to EB2 in the summer of 2006 and 2007. I think EB2 shouldn't have this crazy backlog in the first place if he or his orgnization understood the law in 2005.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
I don't think anyboday right now asking to open flood gates like they did in 2007, but provide EAD to all those who got I140 approved, and movement few months at a time. You made an interesting comment here "DOS or even congress does not want anyone to receive EAD before an acceptable period from receiving GC", what is the source of that?
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack