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qblogfan I agree that the buffer should be at least 30-35K. Teddy what according to you should the buffer be?Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
qblogfan I hope you are able to file your 485 get AP and travel to china and when you do that let us know, we can all then share your happiness.
qblogfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Yes CO needs some demand at the beginning of the year, but he doesn't want too much.
If there are too many pre-adjudicated cases going into next year, it potentially hampers him moving the dates further forward early in the year, as he has done in this one. That is not good, because it jeopardizes the time lines to build the approvable pipeline in FY2013.
A lower amount is helpful to him to move the dates a long way, as he knows that the new applications will take some time to become documentarily qualified. That then gives some flexibility in operating quarterly spillover if he wants to.
It is a balancing act. One way around that is to make a final move in COD very late this year, knowing they can't use visas from this year's allocation and that they won't become demand in the first few in the new FY.
I agree with you qblogfan, we already got november visa bulletin, if they are not going to have pipeline of 30-35k in coming 2 visa bulletins, there is no way for USCIS to go through around 10k applications ( applications after priority date november 2007) by next July bulletin(2012).
It will be definetly inefficiency/stupidity on the part of uscis if they dont want to take atleast 30k application by Feb 2012 visa bulletin.
If they dont move dates by feb'12 visa bulletin then its feast for eb3 Row candidates,
This is just my take
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
With due respect I guess one's perspective is more aligned to getting GC or getting EAD, its human nature indeed !!
qblogfan/grnwtg says CO must have more buffer = more EAD's
Spec says quarterly spillover is an important criterion=more GC's earlier
Teddy says Dec 31st,2007 maybe into Jan=more GC's and some EAD's
cbpds1 trying to move the logic towards 01-feb-2008 :)
just summarizing !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Assuming CO is ok with ~8000 preadj. demand going into next year...(same as current year)... dates reaching Apr/May 08 is still possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Yes, that's what I think. 5k-10k buffer does not stop him from moving PD in the next FY. This year we had 8k in the beginning and it didn't stop him from moving PDs in big steps.
Another thing is that he stated in the last VB: more significant movement is expected, although there is some possibility of stop or retrogression. From this tone, I am thinking he will move VB even further than our analysis results.
Just my two cents. Maybe I am too opitimistic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
if CO thinks in current way ( we are seeing that there are some approvals even in current years quota), if CO wants this trend, he can even move dates to May'08 by June'12 visa bulletin.)
what ever it is, i believe CO is pulling googli every time we predict some thing
Hopefully he goes by words in visa bulletin that we might expect significant moves, atleast by June visa bulletin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
That's a fair point, but also a big assumption.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
The first movement was not the whole 8k and the second movement only brought in the remainder of those 8k of pre-adjudicated cases.
It also might have been a special case, because it was the first movement beyond the backlog and he did say it was purely to gauge demand. That won't really be the case next year, or this year when he gets an idea of the numbers. That's why a disappointing Dec VB can't be ruled out. Waiting for one month will allow CO to assess the numbers generated by the November VB, before setting the January one.
In addition, CO didn't plan to have 8k left. He stated that he had intended to move EB2-IC to at least July 1, 2007 before he heard about the increased demand from EB1/EB2-non IC.
I am not particularly disagreeing when we are talking in the 5-10k range, but I did want add a slight note of caution.
I am not convinced he will ignore Porting number either. They take up real visa numbers. If he discounts them, then he would have to use a conservative number, because he knows they exist. If they were as high as 5k, that becomes a significant number.
I'll let you return to normal service. :D
From Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 it was very difficult to file cases in EB2... did experts consider this scenario while calculating eb2/eb3 percentage from Perm data? I think number of EB2's from Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 is less compared to pre Oct/2007.
I know few of my friends who applied in EB3 as EB2 was very tough during that time...
Thats true but here we are purely going by both numbers and assumptions which many us agreed previously
Data is calculated by our Gurus at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...ATA-(READ-ONLY)
Most of us agree that dates might not move beyond May'2008. whole discussion is for time period between January'08 and April'07 and on an average I guess there will be around 1500 to 2000 aplications per month, so right now we are debating about 6000 to 8000 applications ( which is 3000 to 4000 perms )
Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
I agree with you. We need to be prepared for the worst senario.
Frankly speaking, Mr.Co always does things to our surprise.
Anything can happen in the next few months. The only thing we can do is to pray for the best!
We have suffered too much from this long wait while the ROW EB2 can get GC in several months.
It's a f*** unfair system!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I still believe that there is some unknowns in terms of 'what was real pending number' at end of last FY... None of the 'known rules' are justifying the recent movements. I kind of inclined towards thought that some sub clause has been discovered to facilitate use last years quota into this year.
Coming towards porting - I am not discounting portings at all and even if we take into consideration number as high as ~5000 , I think case for movement till Apr/May 2008 stands.
Also, i am not sure why CO will not need to guage the demand next year? Did not get what you meant there. It all boils down to 'how much is too much' from CO's perspective.
Agree with you on this!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I agree with the Gurus that Feb 08 is on the cards and that it may be in spurts and stops. For all the folks in Nov 07 to Feb 08 range, I would say, please do not be disappointed if the Dec VB does not take you there. I hope it does, but they could slow down the forward movement as well. In any case, It is very likely that the dates will advance to Feb 2008 by Feb 2012.
If the dates advance quickly in the next month or 2, there is a higher likelihood that after accepting the intake, they (CO) will retrogress EB2 IC to Jul/Aug 2007 and then again advance starting in May 2012.
In any case, I see the date advancing to 01 Jan 08 within the next 2 Visa Bulletins.
March 08 will either just make or just miss it in 2012. I hope they make it.
SOFAD & PORTING:
The starting point for any analysis are PERM applications (as done in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011).
Any person porting from EB3 to EB2 will have to file for PERM and would be reflected in PERM demand. So if we assume 70% (or any other %age) are EB2 applicants then that includes people who have ported.
Thus, we should not apply another factor for porting. Therefore, only column with no porting in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011 should be considered.
If we look at any other column then we are double counting Porting cases. Am I missing something?
yes, you're missing this: the porter's new PERM only comes into play in 2011 PERM numbers, not the older 2007 or 2008 PERM figures. Their original PERM was undoubtedly in 2007 or 2008, but at that time they were in the other 30%. In other words, that 70% is people who originally filed under EB2. If you want to include the porters, that number would go up to 75% or so.Quote:
Originally Posted by immi2910
thank you very much. hope a lot of people get in. this VB might be the last to show movement for a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by swagsur
Porting was already there in 2007 and 2008. One of my Indian coworker had PD 2003 EB3 and he did his EB2 PERM in 2005 and got GC in 2007. He dumped my evil company right after getting GC! Good for him! I think some of the 2007 and 2008 PERM are porting EB3-EB2 cases. Many of them have been approved from 2007-2011. so they should be excluded from the total demand. I think at least 10% of them are porting PERMs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Teddy, the first one is still wrong I think. You mean to say 1st Dec 2007 as 100%, not 1st Dec 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
:)
good point. Some of the 70% EB2 PERM from 2007/2008 have already received their GCs and moved out of the queue. So, we need to look only at the incremental porters, i.e., porters from 2010/11 (original dates in 2007/8) - porters from 2007/08 (original dates in 2002/2003). Not sure that there is a way to estimate that amount.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
What's the status of approvals on trackitt
Nishant, I finally corrected it. All the best to you, you should be surely current in the Dec VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Teddy......
My heart just sank looking at this post...:(... just kidding........my pd is in the first week of Dec 2007....hope it doesn't stop at Dec 1st..that would be truly disappointing though.....i understand we can only hope for the best
I wish the dates keep moving and most of us get to file 485....good luck everyone....
CM from 'us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com' updated his analysis for Nov VB. His analysis almost agrees with yours including numbers. According to him while we can anticipate smaller movements in Dec and Jan VBs there is a possibility that they could see no movement at all. This, he infers from the Nov VB notes for I/C EB2 that 'While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis'.
-Sandy
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
sandeep, he just says he expects 3 to 6 months movement in one or two steps, and although the Nov VB says movement may not be monthly norm all that, he says such movement in next Dec or Jan VB cannot be discarded.
Basically he is also not sure when it will happen, but he does think at least 3 month movement more will happen. He has put that analysis few days back on the 7th.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandeep11
and also btw, not just because I am benefited, but it just doesn't make sense to me that he does not do any movement at all in Dec VB, and totally just waits for a month to see the actual demand generated in November. I do think he will take into account the demand generated in November to give him a fair rough idea of how much a move can get in 3.5 months. I think he did 3.5 and not 3 or 4 for a reason, that reason holds the key. He probably wanted to go to the 1st of the month's from the 15ths. One can maybe theorize on that.
I think there would be a move, albeit smaller, in Dec VB, he must have divided his move for Nov VB into two parts, one for Nov VB, and one for Dec VB, and then by the time January, CO will have a very much calculated handle on the function of date movement and demand. He might do another small move, or pause, or retro, and then do surgical moves in ending Q3 or of course Q4 to issues GCs, as well as do a move in last most VB of Q4 to start building demand for FY 2013.
The way Nov VB was pushed out, it totally is obvious there was no meaning of demand data or other stuff, it was pre-planned and just literally pushed out quickly. The demand data for Nov VB looks totally hacked. One might say what will change in demand data for Dec VB ideally, maybe a few hundred, a thousand here and there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200