Spec / Gurus - isn't this recent report from usci s almost like the pending inventory:
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...em_2020_vF.pdf
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Spec / Gurus - isn't this recent report from usci s almost like the pending inventory:
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...em_2020_vF.pdf
These are only Consular Processing statistics.Quote:
Originally Posted by usvisas
"EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES
It is important to note that normally about eighty-five percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are processed as adjustment of status cases at USCIS offices. Cases pending with
USCIS are not counted in the consular waiting list tally which is presented below."
Good to see this reiterated again:
"Immigrant Waiting List
By Country
Immigrant visa issuances during fiscal year 2021 will be limited by the terms of INA 201 to no
more than 226,000 in the family-sponsored preferences and approximately 262,000 in the
employment-based preferences. "
Spec perhaps you can help us. You always made me believe USCIS are the bad guys of immigration. What explains this when there are 140K extra visas available this year. Why do we only see allocation as if only regular quota is available?Quote:
Originally Posted by Palver
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
there's no allocation in those numbers. they are just approved 140's, 360's and 526's by pref category by country of birth.
(note that dependents are not included)
Guys Scenario 2 in Qtr 4- July to Sept
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB2 -Nov/Dec 2010 FAD move
25235, Visa numbers will be available for EB3- Whole of 2011 will be cleared
How many of EB2 guys moved into EB3 queue with downporting
is the question how much eb3 FAD will move with all the downportings.
any rough idea guys
You can discount the people who already have an EAD from 2012 with May 2010 from down porting. The chances of them still in H1B or with the same employer to initiate a EB2-3 downgrade is very rare.Quote:
Originally Posted by H1b2006
However the people who applied for EAD after October 2018 might be still on H1 or with the original employer can be substantial and they can and will down grade. That is the reason EB3 has reached only April 1st 2010 for Feb bulletin. People after April 2010 got a chance to file for EAD only in October 2020 and many of them are still waiting for their receipts even today.
Any movement for this category is expected to happen only in the last quarter of 2021.
May 2010 - May 2011 filers in EB2 are the people who is on fence. If the spill over from EB1 happens, it will push the dates beyond Eb3 for a while.
I know that. My question was why do we see such levels of approved waiting for Visa when 140K extra visas are available.Quote:
Originally Posted by usvisas
Thanks Aceman, your PD and mine is almost days apart. iam 13 days ahead than you.
PD: EB2-I, 11 FEB 2011 i coudnt apply for 485 as i changed employer,
new employer applied for PWD, expecting PWD to be issued in Feb, onto Perm in EB3 by new employer in April, By Oct 2021 i should be ready to apply for I140 IF conditions favour if FAD is current by Nov/dec time periods for EB3, i can apply it and wait for GC.
FB to EB starts kicking in from Oct 2021.there should be some 75k-100k Spillover in 2022FY aswell.
I am debating whether to apply for i140 premium processing.
Filed a concurrent 485 with eb3 downgrade.
My Priority date is may 25 2011
Good luck dear. Let?s hope this is our year. This would be the most favorable time because every other category except for China is current and with the consulates not processing visa, people are not expected to come in quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by H1b2006
I agree we might get similar numbers for 2022 as well, but with covid vaccination and open consulates the demand can go up. Also factor in lot of H1?s from 2020 and entire 2021 H1?s along with 2022 H1?s are going to be available by October 2021. This years H1 lottery might be an interesting watch in my opinion.
If spillover applies (god knows) then USCIS/DHS would try to bring eb2/eb3 closer to each otherQuote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Guessing eb3 dec2010 and eb2 oct 2010 for India
I just looked up Approved I140 numbers for EB2/EB3 India for 2010/2011/2012
In 2010
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-15,308(On a ballpark number lets say 6000 EB2 approved numbers from Jan 2010-May 2010 who will not port from EB2 to EB3). There is chance of 9300 EB2 applicants ported to EB3.
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,677 (
In 2011
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,286
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6930
In 2012
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,308
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-4108
I would expect untill May 2011 EB2 downporting will be less, since they are able to Apply 485 AOS in Oct-Dec 2020 periods in EB2 itself.
it costed 10000$ per family to downport from EB2 to EB3 i thiink only 25% of folks might have spent 10K USD and applied in EB3 in those 3 months.
Yeah, I'd agree. Most of the downgrades will be after May 2011. But for one data point, my PD is Sep-2012 and I couldn't/didn't downgrade. If I were to guess I'd say maybe 50% downgraded after May-2011 with the proportion increasing with the year of PD
I think so tooQuote:
Originally Posted by Palver
Here are the Approved I-140 numbers for EB2/EB3 India for 2010/2011/2012/2013/2014/2015/2016
In 2010
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-15,308(On a ballpark number lets say 6000 EB2 approved numbers from Jan 2010-May 2010 who will not port from EB2 to EB3). There is chance of 9300 EB2 applicants ported to EB3.
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,677 (
In 2011
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,286
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6930
In 2012
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-22,308
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-4108
In 2013
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-21,444
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-3,457
In 2014
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-25,635
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-3,879
In 2015
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-32,699
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-6,453
2016
EB2 Approved I140 Petitions-49,035
EB3 Approved I140 Petitions-10,177
Terrible oversight on my part (as I expected). A 127% increase in EB3 CP - wow. That doesn't bode well for EB3 when consulates open, I would think.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
EB3I - 36,524!!
Agree but as of today US consulates are working very slowly plus the travel ban thru March 2021. That might impact new PERM filings. So my assumption there would be good spill over as well to EB next FY. However from FY 2023 there will be significant set back to all employment categories as consulates starting to function normal business and would take significant chunk of yearly allotted EB visas and backlog would linger for a lifetimeQuote:
Originally Posted by usvisas
I may be wrong on my assumptions
Wow
If we assume in 2010- eb2 to b3 downgrade r 9300 then adding to 6677 pending eb3. That should be around 15977 primary applicant and around 31000
Including dependent. That also means If consulate open all over world with full fledge( which might not happen till June or July)then very limited lateral spillover will happen.
With 100K spillover from FB to EB in Q1 2022 FY finial action dates will move 6 months for EB3 and 3 months for EB2 but the Question is whether filing dates open again in Q1 2022 FY.
guys like me who changed employers will we be able to file again in Q1 2022
my only hope is how much Q4 2021 spillover moves dates for EB3 and then Q1 Final action dates moves for Q1 2022 peiod.
I think looking Q1 2022 beyond a potential spill of 100K+ from FB is too early now. Any kind of valid predictions can be done only after July 2021 bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by H1b2006
Regarding filing date accepted for FY 2022. For it to happen if Eb2 final dates has to go past 2010 and Eb3 has to pass 2014. Big ask.
If they follow the law as written, they will use all the spillover. I know I am skeptical too because of the massive amount of numbers available to use, but let's give the new admin a chance before we start throwing bricks at them. We can either be hopeful and optimistic or miserable moving forward. I admit I also get into these dark phases periodically where I think it's all going to get wasted and honestly I am not thinking this just from my perspective; I am in a lot better shape with May 2010 PD than other in 2012, 2013 etc who are looking at extraordinarily long wait times compared to those of us in 2010 so that's whom I have concern for. So hope for the best and prepare for the worst.Quote:
Originally Posted by H1b2006
I agree. the last bulletin forecasted movement until May. I'd be patient until then. By then, I am expecting the new admin to get settled in with clear directions provided to dhs, uscis, etc..tooQuote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
I think EB2 clearing 2010 is not that big of an ask after all. I don't know about 2014 for EB3 that can happen if it pours cats and dogs.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Jus a quick update folks...we received our EAD/AP card combo (1-yr. validity) by mail on 1/22.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
Here is my timeline (so far...) -
RD - 10/22 - EB2
Biometrics - 1/8
I-765/I-131 case approval - 1/14
EAD/AP Card received - 1/22
National Benefits Center
I have the same view about EB-2 but for EB-3 I think it is not possible that it advances so far out compared to EB-2. If it does, aren't they going to get 1000s of concurrent filings from EB-2 folks who haven't already downgraded? Maybe it will happen for 1 month and retrogress severely?Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
Congrats on your EAD/AP approval. Welcome to the Trishanku status. Make sure that you browse through our EAD/AP thread to setup reminders for timely renewal in 6 months time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
One thing I am unabe to understand is why are we seeing combo card approvals with one year validity instead of two year? Is not that being non-productive since most of these candidates may not receive their green cards by the time their combo card expires?Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
This is USCIS standard practice. Even 2012 EAD filers also got only 1 year EAD/AP, the first time.Quote:
Originally Posted by ak7419
Consider it like this. The reason why you are doing "DF" based AOS application is the expectation/prediction from USCIS that your PD will become "FA" current in one year time. So using that logic they approve only 1 year EAD/AP for the first time. For renewals, you can request a 2 year validity if your "FA" is not current.
That is not entirely correct. I am a 2012 filer and all my combo cards were for two years except the most recent one which was approved last month.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
My comment was for the very first EAD/AP that is sent together with I485 package. Was your very first EAD issued for 1 year or 2 years? If it was for 2 years consider yourself very lucky.Quote:
Originally Posted by ak7419
For a category which has been moving few days every month for more than 2 years, it is a big ask to pass 2009, let alone 2010. 4 days is what it moved for February 2021. If you count from October 2020 for 5 months it moved 48 days.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
It is a huge ask.
May2010 EB2 india got RFE for medicals. Indication that EB2 May2010 FAD movement very much on the cards.
if EB2 I moves to May, shoudnt we add 6 months --Nov 2010 for EB3.
Let the eggs hatch my dear. We can talk about chicken Biriyani?s later. Lot of people from 2010 got RFE in 2018 and we had planned a buffet with lot of chicken dishes. Little did we know USCIS chickened us out.Quote:
Originally Posted by H1b2006
So when the dates actually move, then we can start cooking.
Ha ha ! Can;t stop ROFL ! We are too gullible lot .. these small indicators/ hopes keeps us sane... don't take this away from us ! Lets enjoy till the next visa bulletine crushes our soul again.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Has anyone got the rescheduled biometrics notice for the office closed dates of Jan 19th and 20th? Mine was initially scheduled for 19th but the office was closed. Called USCIS and they told to wait for 2 weeks to receive a rescheduled notice.
Now only if someone with EB3 -I Nov 2010 also receives an RFE you would be onto some trend . I will let you know as soon as I get an RFEQuote:
Originally Posted by H1b2006
Also, all these RFEs are really random. My PD is Feb 2010 and received RFE for 485J/medicals in 2018. But haven't heard anything from USCIS this time around. Yet.
I think I will take a Hariyali Kabab :-)Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
If the person from March 2010 got an RFE, the response should be the copy of the February visa bulletin where they have indicated forward movement of about a week.