EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Yep. we both are on the same boat.... :)

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Though I tend to think 5-6 years is a stretch for EB-3 India Aug 2010 PD for filing I-485, I won't rule out the possibility.

My PD is EB-3/EB-2 July 2009 (I have two I-140s) and didn't get a chance to file in 2012. In FY 2014 last quarter, the EB-2 dates moved to May 1,2009. I was disappointed then and thought I will be current in October 2014 at the latest. Dead wrong. What actually happened was, I became current only in October 2018 in EB-3. Yes, it only took 4 years :mad:.

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Year 2040 and indian guys with PD 2010 will still be on this forum waiting for GC though. The line will probably never cross 2010 IMO for the next 10 years .

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Originally Posted by Dondraper

Year 2040 and indian guys with PD 2010 will still be on this forum waiting for GC though. The line will probably never cross 2010 IMO for the next 10 years .

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You are absolutely right. In 10 Year's eb2i progressed by 8 months.

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Originally Posted by harinatham14

Hi Gurus,

My PD - August 2010 (EB3 - India)

I don't have any hope for my GC in next 2 or 3 years minimum. At least, If I get a chance to file my I-485 that's a big relief. So that will receive EAD/AP

Any predictions, when can I expect to file my I-485?

Thanks

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My PD is July 2010. I began to estimate my Date of Filing will be current when Final Action Date is 3 months away (Mar/Apr 2010) for EB3.

I think we will get good picture in May/June of each year if there will be Spill Over or not and estimate change drastically.

At present 3-4 yrs to get EAD is my estimate for Aug 2010

With a May 2010 EB2-I, I started out thinking it will take the usual ~5 yrs. Then when that passed, I thought, "ehh maybe 7 yrs". Now I have settled in to "umm maybe 12 yrs?". :D

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Originally Posted by GCdreamz

My PD is July 2010. I began to estimate my Date of Filing will be current when Final Action Date is 3 months away (Mar/Apr 2010) for EB3.

I think we will get good picture in May/June of each year if there will be Spill Over or not and estimate change drastically.

At present 3-4 yrs to get EAD is my estimate for Aug 2010

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Have you asked the folks who filed GC with PD 2010 back in 2012 ?. It sure isnt three months away

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Originally Posted by Dondraper

Have you asked the folks who filed GC with PD 2010 back in 2012 ?. It sure isnt three months away

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My honest opinion, we should review if all (or majority) waiting 2009 guys are all straight Eb2 I or ported from Eb3 I.
Otherwise it will be a moving goalpost

Spec updated the year end consular processing figures and there looks to be ~20,000 spillover coming from family based GCs (Assumes that Adjustment of Status remains at ~16,000 as it has been over the last few years).

This post is just a number plugging to Spec's original post of hypothetical 10,000 spillover here: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399


Spillover coming: ~20,000

FB Spillover - EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ----- Total
Prorated ---- 28.6% --- 28.6% --- 28.6% ---- 7.1% ---- 7.1% --- 100.0%
20,000 ----- 5,720 --- 5,720 --- 5,720 ----- 1,420 ----- 1,420 --- 20,000
7% ----------- 400 ----- 400 ----- 400 ------ 100 ------ 100 ------ 1400


In EB1, EB2 and EB3 the overall allocation would increase from 40,040 to 45,760.

The 45,760 would initially be distributed as

Group ---------- Total -- Increase
China ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
India ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
Mexico --------- 3,203 ------- 400
Philippines ---- 3,203 ------- 400
ROW ----------- 32,948 ----- 4,120

Total --------- 45,760 ----- 5720

Since both EB1ROW is heavily backlogged, it will gobble it all up. Since EB2ROW is lightly backlogged, and since new ROW's EB1A and EB1B will likely come in as EB2NIW, EB2ROW will also gobble up everything coming its way.

The extra 4120 coming EB3-ROW's way provides some hope that EB3-I may get some of it this year. But nothing that is a game changer.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Spec updated the year end consular processing figures and there looks to be ~20,000 spillover coming from family based GCs (Assumes that Adjustment of Status remains at ~16,000 as it has been over the last few years).

This post is just a number plugging to Spec's original post of hypothetical 10,000 spillover here: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ll=1#post62399


Spillover coming: ~20,000

FB Spillover - EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ----- Total
Prorated ---- 28.6% --- 28.6% --- 28.6% ---- 7.1% ---- 7.1% --- 100.0%
20,000 ----- 5,720 --- 5,720 --- 5,720 ----- 1,420 ----- 1,420 --- 20,000
7% ----------- 400 ----- 400 ----- 400 ------ 100 ------ 100 ------ 1400


In EB1, EB2 and EB3 the overall allocation would increase from 40,040 to 45,760.

The 45,760 would initially be distributed as

Group ---------- Total -- Increase
China ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
India ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
Mexico --------- 3,203 ------- 400
Philippines ---- 3,203 ------- 400
ROW ----------- 32,948 ----- 4,120

Total --------- 45,760 ----- 5720

Since both EB1ROW is heavily backlogged, it will gobble it all up. Since EB2ROW is lightly backlogged, and since new ROW's EB1A and EB1B will likely come in as EB2NIW, EB2ROW will also gobble up everything coming its way.

The extra 4120 coming EB3-ROW's way provides some hope that EB3-I may get some of it this year. But nothing that is a game changer.

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So EB2I and EB3I will get 400 visas each is what you are saying?

Iatiam

Last year some what better we get a total of 10,146(EB2: 4096, EB3: 6,050) on total got at least 4k visas extra. With this pace we won't be able to clear 2009 data for another 3-4 years.

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Originally Posted by vbollu

Last year some what better we get a total of 10,146(EB2: 4096, EB3: 6,050) on total got at least 4k visas extra. With this pace we won't be able to clear 2009 data for another 3-4 years.

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EB2I has a June 2009 bump it needs to cross and dates may start moving again a bit more rapidly till end of 2009. Remember that 2009 was a historically low filing period due to recession. However, the dates 2010 and beyond seem hopeless at this point.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by iatiam

So EB2I and EB3I will get 400 visas each is what you are saying?

Iatiam

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I think word extra is missing from above sentence.

Based on ~20k spillover from family, expected yearly quota for EB2 and EB3-I will increase by 400 each. So 3200 instead of 2800 within each category.

Net 800 extra for EB-2 and EB-3.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

EB2I has a June 2009 bump it needs to cross and dates may start moving again a bit more rapidly till end of 2009. Remember that 2009 was a historically low filing period due to recession. However, the dates 2010 and beyond seem hopeless at this point.

Iatiam

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I doubt the numbers are low. How long has PD been in 2009 ? From Aug 2014 to date its stuck in 2009. So that is like 5 years and we have barely scratched June 2009. LEts say another 5 years to complete 2009. and than 2010. That will probably take 10+ year clear. So wait time will increase to 20+ for just those folks who filed in 2010. I cant imagine for those beyond 2010. No hope

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Originally Posted by Dondraper

I doubt the numbers are low. How long has PD been in 2009 ? From Aug 2014 to date its stuck in 2009. So that is like 5 years and we have barely scratched June 2009. LEts say another 5 years to complete 2009. and than 2010. That will probably take 10+ year clear. So wait time will increase to 20+ for just those folks who filed in 2010. I cant imagine for those beyond 2010. No hope

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I am basing it on July 2018 inventory. If you have better data do bring it and we can discuss. Else your guess is as good as mine. Also the main reason why EB2I dates have not moved has been generally attributed to porting from EB3 which has stopped.

You can also be super conservative and say that it will take 20 years or 200 years to clear 2010 but truth is that so many things like economy slowdown or legislative relief are impossible to predict.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by iatiam

I am basing it on July 2018 inventory. If you have better data do bring it and we can discuss. Else your guess is as good as mine. Also the main reason why EB2I dates have not moved has been generally attributed to porting from EB3 which has stopped.

You can also be super conservative and say that it will take 20 years or 200 years to clear 2010 but truth is that so many things like economy slowdown or legislative relief are impossible to predict.

Iatiam

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There is no doubt that EB2 stalled because of EB3 porters from PDs 2003-2008. After all it wasn’t a hugely difficult task to port after getting 5 years experience. My estimates based on old inventory data had pegged 20K visas to porting from 2012-2018.

But all that is over now - now what we have is effectively a joint line of eb2 and eb3. Another estimate of mine has Eb3 numbers at around 50 percent of EB2 - for 2009. The consular numbers are though whole another thing. No one thought of that to be a game changer.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

There is no doubt that EB2 stalled because of EB3 porters from PDs 2003-2008. After all it wasn’t a hugely difficult task to port after getting 5 years experience. My estimates based on old inventory data had pegged 20K visas to porting from 2012-2018.

But all that is over now - now what we have is effectively a joint line of eb2 and eb3. Another estimate of mine has Eb3 numbers at around 50 percent of EB2 - for 2009. The consular numbers are though whole another thing. No one thought of that to be a game changer.

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I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by iatiam

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

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I am all for supporting the removal of per country limits but our own Indian companies and Indian Nationals responsible for gaming the system by entering again through consular processing or international manager route.

BTW, I am in Medical field

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Originally Posted by iatiam

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

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How difficult is to "find" a desi consultant and apply for a new PERM/ I-140? You retain the PD for the new PERM even if you have gone back. I am sure many would have figured it out.

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Originally Posted by canada

I am all for supporting the removal of per country limits but our own Indian companies and Indian Nationals responsible for gaming the system by entering again through consular processing or international manager route.

BTW, I am in Medical field

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You are right we Indians are experts in Gaming the system. But, immigrants from other countries do that too, no one is an exception when it comes to gaming the system, we are the best among them all !! No reforms will ease this frustrating situation, there are another 10k+ pending cases before the date hits 2010.

Like QUIT INDIA movement helped India get independence, QUIT USA moment may give independence to backlogged Engineers and Doctors.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

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Unbelievable to see EB3 to EB2 upgrades,still. Better to keep both EB-3 and EB-2 dates close to each other.

Nothing about EB-3 India though. Since no spillover expected from ROW, EB3-India is screwed this year as well?

No word about potential spillover from FB to EB this FY.

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Originally Posted by iatiam

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

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Personally, I think CO is incorrect in his assessment about EB3-EB2 upgrades.

EB2-I with a 2009 PD have been waiting a long time to become current on a consistent basis.

After the period in 2012 when dates leapt forward, the next time any date in 2009 became current for approval was at the end of FY2014.

After that, (although there were some opportunities to file) 2009 PDs did not become current again for approval until the end of FY2018.

Sure, there probably are some ex EB3-I porters who completed the process many years ago, but there are also a large number of original EB2-I applicants left to approve with a PD in 2009.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Personally, I think CO is incorrect in his assessment about EB3-EB2 upgrades.

EB2-I with a 2009 PD have been waiting a long time to become current on a consistent basis.

After the period in 2012 when dates leapt forward, the next time any date in 2009 became current for approval was at the end of FY2014.

After that, (although there were some opportunities to file) 2009 PDs did not become current again for approval until the end of FY2018.

Sure, there probably are some ex EB3-I porters who completed the process many years ago, but there are also a large number of original EB2-I applicants left to approve with a PD in 2009.

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Spec,

Thanks for the comment. Is there some data to see how bad the pending demand is?

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by FarAwayfromGC

You are right we Indians are experts in Gaming the system. But, immigrants from other countries do that too, no one is an exception when it comes to gaming the system, we are the best among them all !! No reforms will ease this frustrating situation, there are another 10k+ pending cases before the date hits 2010.

Like QUIT INDIA movement helped India get independence, QUIT USA moment may give independence to backlogged Engineers and Doctors.

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The problem is over population from India and China. No amount of green cards will be sufficient when every corner in india is churning out engineering degrees by the lakhs. Removing country caps means US will become India and China.

Check-In with Charlie! Predictions through the January 2020 Visa Bulletin

EB-1 India: no forward movement expected through January.
EB-2 India: Monthly movement up to 1 week.
EB-3 India and China: Little, if any, movement.

I am trying to figure out how much SO from FB can EB2/EB3 get in FY 2020. The only recent statistic I have is from FY2013 which per the below link spilled over 18,000 visas.

https://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb...ional.html?m=1

I checked this number against the numbers reported by DHS in their immigration yearbook as shown below,
Attachment 1534

Putting these things together, I ran a calculation to see how the FB SO matches with the actual allocation and here it is.
Attachment 1535

As you can see, the numbers check out fairly well.

Now the question is, given we can expect around 23,000 visas from FB this year, how will the numbers stack up? If EB1 ROW slows down (as expected) and EB2 ROW & EB3 ROW does not increase in demand, can we expect close to 6,000 visas to spillover to EB2I and EB3I respectively?
Spec, I am looking forward to you poking holes in my numbers

Iatiam