EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

+ 1, Spec welcome back as always very thorough, highly detailed and great analysis from you.

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+2, liked his approach, liked his candid expression

"...probably helps us by a month or two."

Qesehmk, the prediction chart shows Nov'06 for EB2 for this year; does the prediction reflect the above said probability.

On a lighter note, there ain't copyright involved.

The month or two would be on top of the "Copyrighted" (LoL) prediction in the header :-)

On another note .... did you guys see the immigration related news items last couple of days? Looks like 2011 there could be another push for immigration reform. The timing will be crucial. It has to happen in 2011 or max early in 2012. They can't afford to do it close to elections.

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Originally Posted by MorningSun

"...probably helps us by a month or two."

Qesehmk, the prediction chart shows Nov'06 for EB2 for this year; does the prediction reflect the above said probability.

On a lighter note, there ain't copyright involved.

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Guys,
I found it on http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

* In his States of Union speech in January 2011, the President emphasized importance of retaining and attracting foreign brains to the nation and legislation to reform the employment-based immigration system. Unfortunately, this word has yet to be followed through by the President. However, some leaders in both Houses in the Hill have been inspired by his speech, and slowly but cautiously bring forward this legislation into the front. Report indicates that Rep. Zoe Lofgren, the current Ranking member of House Judiciary Immigration Subcommittee and the former chairwoman of the same Subcommitte until the end of 2010 has prepared and will introduce a bill which will propose certain high level of foreign workers to obtain permanent resident status and allow them to bypass annual numerical limitation and the labor certification process. There are already two bills in the House to call for the House to reform the employment-based immigration at the level, one by Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona and the other by Rep. Isaa of California. Interestingly, Senior Senator Orin Hatch of Utah who used to support CIR but lately turned into an anti-CIR senator facing reelection in November 2012 lately urged the Obama Administration to expand H-1B visa numbers and to do something about foreign brain immigration. The CIR that includes legalization of undocumented aliens still remains in the bolt for fear of potential backfires during the November 2012 election season, particularly in the current state of the nation struggling with the high unemployment rate, but the issue of importance of retaining high level of foreign brains within the U.S. has been facing less challenges, particularly from the viewpoint of controlling oursourcing of American businesses and the pressures from business leaders and academic community. Last week, the CEO of 3M Company in Minnesota brought this issue into the front by accusing the Obama Administration for failing to take a leadership on immigration reform to retain and attract top foreign brains and the company's threat to take more manufacturing & R&D businesses out to the certain Asian countries. This CEO eventually had to face a huge uproar from certain segment of the society, but it represented the impatience of the business community with the Obama Administration's failure to take a leadership in the reform of employment-based immigration system. As the nation's economy improves further, such pressure is likely to rise and expand. Something to watch closely.

Do you guys think some thing positive will happen this year.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by nayekal

Guys,
I found it on http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

* In his States of Union speech in January 2011, the President emphasized importance of retaining and attracting foreign brains to the nation and legislation to reform the employment-based immigration system. Unfortunately, this word has yet to be followed through by the President. ........

Do you guys think some thing positive will happen this year.

Thanks

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Hi nayekal,

As you already know, no one knows what is going to happen. Albeit, there is always a chance of something to happen. It is more of politics than the 'NEED' to do something about Immigration.
Let all hope that some legislation passes soon or atleast doors open for all for a month or two so that we are relieved from the H1B troubles.

Good Luck to all !

I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?

nuvikas

my understanding is that TSC is more electronic while NSC (not NBC!) is more manual and handles exceptions.

They probably transferred your case for some sort of exception/due diligence. Looks like that has now cleared and your case is all set and back in TSC where it will finally receive a visa number in next 4-5 months.

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Originally Posted by nuvikas

I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by nuvikas

I received an email today from USCIS that my I-485 petition was transferred from NBC to TSC.
2 years ago USCIS had transferred my case from TSC to NBC where I was called for an interview. At the interview the immigration officer told me that every thing was in order and requested a visa number as my priority date was not current. If my date had been current during my interview the immigration officer would have approved my I-485 petition then and there itself. I have filed under EB2 and have a priority date of Dec 2006.
Can any one tell why my file has been transferred back to TSC now?

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nuvikas,

That is entirely to be expected. The National Benefits Center (NBC) handles the routing of cases for local Field Office interview.

In line with this memo http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...a-12-15-10.pdf all Employment Based retrogressed cases preadjudicated at Field Offices are being transferred to Texas Service Center (TSC).

This allows them to be counted and included in the quarterly USCIS Inventory Reports.

When you become Current, TSC will handle final adjudication and approval.

Spec, so, how does one find out where the case is? I know my case was filed in TSC.

Thanks

Thanks again. You guys are wonderful for having quoted the actual memorandum.

New demand data out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 4,200 13,200 0 17,400
January 1, 2008 9,725 22,950 0 32,675
January 1, 2011 9,800 23,050 100 32,950

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html

Sorry...kd2008 beat me by 1 min

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Originally Posted by kd2008

New demand data out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 4,200 13,200 0 17,400
January 1, 2008 9,725 22,950 0 32,675
January 1, 2011 9,800 23,050 100 32,950

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For India, EB3 to EB2 porting has been happening and exceeding >233 visas each month :(

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

For India, EB3 to EB2 porting has been happening and exceeding >233 visas each month :(

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Shaumack ... very interesting post. Thanks.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

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I have a question on this part of the statement

"I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

I don't think EB3 folks with PDs between 2006 - July 2007 who are porting to EB2 will need to refile their I485. Of course, some of them might have missed the boat during July - Aug 2007 time and they need to file their new I485 but that also applies to EB2 folks (i.e. who directly applied in EB2 to begin with) also.

I feel there might be somewhat increased EB3 -> EB2 filing in the coming years but I don't have an idea whether it will cross 6,000 by a huge margin. From the pending EB inventory, there are around ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 (1st Jan 2011 is same as July-Aug'07 as far as the pending cases are concerned). If we assume that 50% of these folks will successfully port to EB2 category (I think this is an upper bound), then there will be effectively around 7.5K porting (max) from EB3->EB2 in the coming 1 -2 years. This doesn't account for people who might have missed filing during July - Aug'07 and I don't know what will be a reasonable number for the same.

Just my thoughts, not sure whether there is a flaw in my reasoning. Thanks!

We also need to figure a way to estimate the new I485 applications being filed for the dependents once they successfully port from EB3 to EB2. Imagine an EB3 2005 getting married in October 2007. Once the EB3 to EB2 conversion is complete, the primary applicant will add the dependents which will account for additional visa numbers. Please correct me if I am wrong. I am not sure if there is way at all to calculate this number other than getting it from the inventory report.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

I still think this is not a bad news. EB3-EB2 porting is happening at an expected rate. As long as it is using only little more than 233 visas, I do not expect yearly figures to be more than 4000-4500. This was well accounted. I do not expect predicted spillover for this year will be affected much by EB3-EB2 porting.

Check this out --> http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455 . Out of 60 odd votes, most of the people who are porting are with PD 2006 and beyond. Most of the folks with PD 2002 to 2005, who was/is qualified for porting has either already ported or in middle of porting. But number is a small number.

I am concerned that we will not see much movement for EB2-I for a year or two after FY 2011. I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current. For coming year or two, EB3 to EB2 porting will be more than 6000 easily. It will be beneficial for folks whose PD is in 2006 and 2007 that EB2-I see maximum movement this fiscal year.

My $0.002 cents on this.

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Based on the latest demand data, will there be any change to the predicted/calculated Jul-Sep 2011 PD for EB2I? Nov 2006 - Mar 2007?

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Originally Posted by shaumack

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My $0.002 cents on this.

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It's not two cents! two mills, kidding.

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Originally Posted by Gclongwait

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I beleive most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

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Same I-485 will be used, one can not have two I-485 applications pending at the same time.

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Originally Posted by Gclongwait

I have a question on this part of the statement

"I believe most of the spillover after FY 2011 will be utilized by the folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has initiated EB3- EB2 porting but could not file I-485 since their PD is not current"

Do these folks have to refile I-485 since they would already have filed under EB3 in July 2007, or is the same I 485 used.

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Sorry for not being attentive. I was rushing through this during my lunch break. As veni mentioned you cannot have more than one I-485 pending at a time. The whole point is that most of the spillover will be used by folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has successfully ported from EB3 to EB2 but are not current now. They will eventually be as dates would progress to late 2006 or early 2007 after FY 2011. This will bring in whole new lot that will continue chewing up visa numbers.

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Originally Posted by pch053

I feel there might be somewhat increased EB3 -> EB2 filing in the coming years but I don't have an idea whether it will cross 6,000 by a huge margin. From the pending EB inventory, there are around ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 (1st Jan 2011 is same as July-Aug'07 as far as the pending cases are concerned). If we assume that 50% of these folks will successfully port to EB2 category (I think this is an upper bound), then there will be effectively around 7.5K porting (max) from EB3->EB2 in the coming 1 -2 years.

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Since we know that EB3-I is gonna be a black hole, I will not be surprised that in coming years more and more EB3s with PD between 2002 - 2005 would find different ways to qualify them to port from EB3 to EB2 either by a) changing jobs that would qualify them to EB2 b) persuading their current employers to upgrade their case to EB2 or c) attaining higher education and then changing jobs. With fleeting time more n more people are becoming aware that EB3 to EB2 porting is the ONLY way to get out of this mess and there is no point in hanging on to their current EB3 jobs. So we will continuously see porting happening with folks with PD between 2002-2005 in addition to those who will port from ~15K pending cases under EB3 category with PDs ranging from 1st Jan 2006 to 1st Jan 2011 as you mentioned. So porting number will keep on rising and would never plateau.

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Originally Posted by veni001

It's not two cents! two mills, kidding.

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Lol ..tru that .. I was rushing … but as long as it adds to the discussion it is all good. :o

I agree the porting numbers will probably rise in the coming years but the question is by how much, which probably is not very easy to guess either! From seeing people's estimates, it seems that EB3->EB2 porting will be in the range of 4K - 6K for the current year. Going by the green card allocation numbers, the EB3->EB2 porting was estimated to be around 3K for the last year. In the coming year, EB3->EB2 porting might be more than what we are seeing this year but I am not sure whether there will be significant increase from what we are seeing now in the coming year (maybe it will be 15 - 20% more; I am just throwing up a number here).

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

THanks!

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Originally Posted by pch053

I agree the porting numbers will probably rise in the coming years but the question is by how much, which probably is not very easy to guess either! From seeing people's estimates, it seems that EB3->EB2 porting will be in the range of 4K - 6K for the current year. Going by the green card allocation numbers, the EB3->EB2 porting was estimated to be around 3K for the last year. In the coming year, EB3->EB2 porting might be more than what we are seeing this year but I am not sure whether there will be significant increase from what we are seeing now in the coming year (maybe it will be 15 - 20% more; I am just throwing up a number here).

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

THanks!

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Mostly depend on where do we stand by October 2011 and also FY2011/2012 PERM certifications.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

.... most of the spillover will be used by folks with PD between 2006 and July 2007, who has successfully ported from EB3 to EB2 but are not current now.

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Have you calculated how much true porting might be today. (where true means not just the ones that are eating into SOFAD this year but also the ones are being ported but the date is not current yet). We know the answer about SOFAD piece (likely that is 3-4K). The question is what is the other piece and is it significant.

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Originally Posted by pch053

On a different note, what are people's expectations on when most of the pending EB2-I applications (i.e. up to PD July - Aug'07) will be cleared and PDs will move past Aug'07. Initially, I was hopeful that EB2-I PDs will reach Aug'07 by the end of Sep'12 but now I feel that it will drag on to 2013. Look forward to see others view on this.

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I think its quite possible to reach Aug 07 by Sep 12. Almost a certainty. If the date reaches nov-dec 06 this year. That leaves hardly 14-15K for 2007. So everything else being constant if porting rises to 5-6-7K ... should still be more than enough to make Aug 07 current by Sep 12.

p.s. - I didn't comment on Demand data since there was nothing new / unexpected there.

why there would be more porting for EB3 people with June06-Jul07 dates? compared to 02-May06

also remember that dates moved to Aug06 in 2008 for brief period, I think spouce 485s of Aug06-Jul07 EB2 will be more than porting EB3s of the same time frame

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Originally Posted by bieber

why there would be more porting for EB3 people with June06-Jul07 dates? compared to 02-May06

also remember that dates moved to Aug06 in 2008 for brief period, I think spouce 485s of Aug06-Jul07 EB2 will be more than porting EB3s of the same time frame

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Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

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Originally Posted by veni001

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

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April 2011 VB is out!
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5368.html
No change for EB2I

Thanks Veni.
Status quo continues.

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Originally Posted by veni001

April 2011 VB is out!
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5368.html
No change for EB2

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks Veni.
Status quo continues.

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That's right!

EB2C - 2 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3I - 3 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3ROW - 3 weeks forward movement (Very Good!)

Look at the EB3I 3 weeks movement. That's very interesting.

If 3 weeks on 6 months is equivalent to "X" 485 cases then for full year that would be 2X 485 cases (given that spillover is absent).

I would roughly imagine that is about 4-5K. Of that 4-5K on a full year 2.8K is attributable to quota. So it tells us that EB3I->EB2I porting isn't a big issue. Right?

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Originally Posted by veni001

That's right!

EB2C - 2 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3I - 3 weeks forward movement (Good!)
EB3ROW - 3 weeks forward movement (Very Good!)

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In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

That is the difference between DoS demand data and USCIS 485 inventory. DoS demand does include CP demand (to the extent the case is ready to assign a visa).

And yes its DoS that moves the dates based on demand data. They DO NOT look at USCIS 485 inventory.

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Originally Posted by pch053

In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

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Originally Posted by veni001

Biber,
That's a very good point,One other thing we need to keep in mind when talking about EB3I-->EB2I porting is, the number of EB3 pending before May 2006 Vs after May 2006.
There are about 47K EB3I pending with priority dates before May 2006 compared to about 11K EB3I between May 2006 and August 2007. Even if we apply the same % the porting numbers will be different(before and after the current Visa Bulletin EB2I PD).

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very true veni

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Originally Posted by pch053

In that case, the EB3->EB2 porting is not greater than 2.5K; to be on the safer side, we can probably think it to be within 4K or so. This might be a naive question: when the PDs move in the visa bulletin, do they consider the Consular Processing (CP) cases? I mean to say, the CP cases are not reported in the pending I485 inventory (please correct me if I am wrong); so how they estimate the pending CP cases while moving the PDs in the visa bulletin?

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Pch053,
Yes, they do but CP number is not significant for EB2I/C or even ROW, Spec posted CP calculations (post#509) in this thread.
3.72% for EB1(all countries, total 1971 cases in Fy 2010)
0.74% for EB2I(102 cases in FY 2010)
1.18% for EB2C( only 70 cases in FY 2010)
3.11% for EB2ROW(1,167 for Fy 2010)

CP percentage is high for EB3( overall 16% ) , i believe mainly due to 245(i) cases.

Thanks veni and qesehmk for the answers; it surely helped clarify my doubts!

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

I think fundamentally what drives EB2IC ( or 3 for that matter ) backlog is the fact that there are only 2800 visas available under per country quota whereas the demand for EB2I is probably around 18-25K. During recessions such as now the demand is less.

So EB2I is left at the mercy of other categories to utilize less and provide SOFAD. The other categories themselves have volatile demand which gets complicated by USCIS' processing delays and surges. That's why predicting EB2IC movement becomes tricky.

Hope it answers your question.

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Originally Posted by hoping4thebest

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by hoping4thebest

Hi folks (q, veni, spec etc.),
I have been following all your analysis for quite a while and you guys are doing full justice to the goal of this site..to bring some visibility to the EB-GC visa bulletin movements. Kudos to all of you for that.
However, since you guys are deep into the analysis...I am sometimes confused as to what are the main reasons for the slow/no movement for EB2-I. I caught the Eb3-Eb2 porting calculations earlier on this thread but then the final comments seemed to be that this may not be that significant. I gathered some info about the reduction in FA/FD numbers but not sure how significant this is. same about EB1C apps.
In summary - it would great help if someone could list of the few 4-5 factors, the combination of which is leading to the EB2-I situation we find ourselves in today.

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Hoping4thebest,
Let me throw few pointers here... now we know that USCIS/DOS won't apply SOFAD until Q4 so with regular 7% per country limit, VISA availability per month per category is about 233 or 700 per quarter.
October 2010 EBi485 inventory data show about 1700 EB2I pending applications before May 2006.

We know that porting is common phenomena( more or less), there are about 45K EB3I before May 2006. Let's apply what ever be the factor you like 4%, 6% or 10% once we apply this we know that EB2I demand will be more than the supply and no chance for any forward movement unless SOFAD applied.

On the contrary EB2C got less than 700 with PD before June 2006 as of 10/01/2010 and only 2,750 EB3C with PD before June 2006.

Thre is lot of talk on reduced EB1C demand this year, but i would wait couple more months and see if DOS is going to throw any prediction for the rest of the year.

This Prez can't even solve the budget issue, forget Libya,Japan,Energy & Immigration.
There is not a statement ore rebuttal or anything about the Utah policy. ( which I think is good)

More seriously, did anyone find the latest inventory data? I think it's due this month, right?