EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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03-05-2013, 01:58 PM
SeekingGC2013

Movement

Hey Spec

For Dates to Move thru end of Apr 2008 - DD shows 7300 + 5086 = 12386
17K Visas Available - are you assuming Porting around 4.6K.
How would the forecast look if EB2 WW use within their Quota for FY2013 - would that 4.4K add to 17K?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).
03-05-2013, 02:07 PM
justvisiting

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

My analysis of the dashboard figures suggests the November EB2-WW numbers were fairly high.

Around 50 seems to be a normal Trackitt monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

I agree those June cases won't be approved till this FY. I expected a higher number still from November, but let's say that the applications tripled, then there wouyld have been 6000 receipts in Nov. That's ony 4K above baseline. Plus 2K "extra" for June 2012. That totals about 6K more EB2-WW. I looked at the EB2-WW monthy average a while back, but a conservative estimate is 2K approvals per month as a long term trend. That would mean "normal" is about 24K. Add the "extra" 6K and then 2K for porters and that's how I reached 32K.
03-05-2013, 03:24 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by justvisiting

I agree those June cases won't be approved till this FY. I expected a higher number still from November, but let's say that the applications tripled, then there wouyld have been 6000 receipts in Nov. That's ony 4K above baseline. Plus 2K "extra" for June 2012. That totals about 6K more EB2-WW. I looked at the EB2-WW monthy average a while back, but a conservative estimate is 2K approvals per month as a long term trend. That would mean "normal" is about 24K. Add the "extra" 6K and then 2K for porters and that's how I reached 32K.

justvisiting,

I think the underlying number of EB2-WW applications in November was at least 6k.

Your "conservative" average is extremely conservative.

EB2-WW approvals in the last few years have been:

FY2009 - 32,865 - Average 2,739 / month
FY2010 - 27,406 - Average 2,284 / month
FY2011 - 34,550 - Average 2,879 / month
FY2012 - 25,009 - Average 2,779 / month over 9 months

FY2010 appears to be the odd year out, otherwise the average is nearer 33k.

I don't believe the "extra" is as low as 6k.

On Trackitt, EB2-P already has as many approvals as last year, EB2-ROW has reached 90% and will reach the FY2012 level by the end of March. That is consistent with catching up the missing 3 months by the end of March. If approvals then return to a normal level for the second half of the year there will be 15 months of approvals in 12 months. The overall monthly average (for 15 months worth) only needs to be 2,600 to use the EB2-WW full allocation of ~39,000. 14,000 over 6 months is only 2,333 per month.
03-05-2013, 04:55 PM
erikbond101

If 17 K is total number to EB2I. Then 2.5-3 K will be consumed (in FY13) by porters between Nov 02 and Sep 04 as CO commented in last visa bulletin.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013

Hey Spec

For Dates to Move thru end of Apr 2008 - DD shows 7300 + 5086 = 12386
17K Visas Available - are you assuming Porting around 4.6K.
How would the forecast look if EB2 WW use within their Quota for FY2013 - would that 4.4K add to 17K?
03-06-2013, 10:00 AM
Vkkpnm

It's such a frustrating to wait for a thing whose timelines are not known :(. If I don't get at least EAD this year, I will leave this country.

Sorry guys trying to take out my frustration via this form.
03-06-2013, 11:39 AM
gkjppp

whats your PD? chances are 0 to move forward if your PD is beyond May 1st,2010. So "packup". Just kidding. its a rollercoaster so you never know whats in CO's mind. he moves dates on his own discrete(He don't see backlogs).
03-06-2013, 01:39 PM
Vkkpnm

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(
03-06-2013, 02:08 PM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(

You will get your GC this year... so don't need to book your tickets just yet. I will be one of those cases that will be on the fence with an Aug PD.
03-06-2013, 02:14 PM
Vkkpnm

Thanks vizcard.
03-06-2013, 02:57 PM
Vkkpnm

Do we know when is th next demand data will be published or any other action/event/stats by USCIS that will further put some light on our prediction?
03-06-2013, 03:05 PM
qesehmk

This calendar - CLICK HERE - on this site lists immigration events approximately. I and other moderators will keep adding events as time permits.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Do we know when is th next demand data will be published or any other action/event/stats by USCIS that will further put some light on our prediction?
03-06-2013, 03:31 PM
Vkkpnm

Wow. Great. Thanks
03-06-2013, 05:19 PM
SmileBaba

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(

Hi! My PD is also Dec 2007. You mentioned you atleast need an EAD this year. So I am guessing you didn't file I485 last year?

But in any case don't think too much about GC dude. It will come on it's own time. Hang in there.
03-06-2013, 05:42 PM
gkjppp

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Thanks gkjppp.

My priority date is Dec'07. Though I am very optimistic based on detailed analysis and discussion on this form but that will make more worse If I get missed again this year and again have to wait another year :(

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.
03-06-2013, 06:49 PM
Vkkpnm

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Hi! My PD is also Dec 2007. You mentioned you atleast need an EAD this year. So I am guessing you didn't file I485 last year?

But in any case don't think too much about GC dude. It will come on it's own time. Hang in there.

Yes I missed to file last year. Please don't ask how :). Yeah hanging here since 2006, lets have another year.
03-06-2013, 06:50 PM
Vkkpnm

Quote:

Originally Posted by gkjppp

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.

Amen :) and thanks. You r right, this site is so addictive. Thanks to all who helped in getting this site setup.
03-06-2013, 08:34 PM
SeekingGC2013

Hello

Hey All

Why isn't there any activity on this Forum in the last 3-4 days?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Amen :) and thanks. You r right, this site is so addictive. Thanks to all who helped in getting this site setup.
03-07-2013, 01:18 PM
bvsamrat

It all depends when the Spill over gets released. If released only in the last few months, the possibiity of GC is slim as the process of I-485 application/FP etc. will take certain time during which the dates may retrogress again.

EAD for sure. But 50%-50% GC for new I-485's in this year if the dates gets delayed beyond July - IMHO

Quote:

Originally Posted by gkjppp

Advance congrats,You should get your GC before this october for sure. So, plan for Diwali. This site is great, at times you will become addict to this, seriously.
03-07-2013, 03:22 PM
SeekingGC2013

Movement

Hey All

I have a question for the GURUS here.

Lets assume we get 18K visas to EB2I. And lets say 3k is used by porting between Sept'02-Sept'04, which leaves with 15K. Now looking at Demand Data we have 7.3K until Dec07, and around 8K till End of June 08. So would the Dates be moved till June 2008?

Or Consider/assume that there might be around 4K Porting between (Sept 04-Jun 08) - And move the dates to End of Mar 08 (to accomodate for that 4K porting and deduct that 4K from June 08 to MAr 08).

please share your thoughts on this process of moving dates.

thanks

Quote:

Originally Posted by bvsamrat

It all depends when the Spill over gets released. If released only in the last few months, the possibiity of GC is slim as the process of I-485 application/FP etc. will take certain time during which the dates may retrogress again.

EAD for sure. But 50%-50% GC for new I-485's in this year if the dates gets delayed beyond July - IMHO
03-07-2013, 03:52 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013

Hey All

I have a question for the GURUS here.

Lets assume we get 18K visas to EB2I. And lets say 3k is used by porting between Sept'02-Sept'04, which leaves with 15K. Now looking at Demand Data we have 7.3K until Dec07, and around 8K till End of June 08. So would the Dates be moved till June 2008?

Or Consider/assume that there might be around 4K Porting between (Sept 04-Jun 08) - And move the dates to End of Mar 08 (to accomodate for that 4K porting and deduct that 4K from June 08 to MAr 08).

please share your thoughts on this process of moving dates.

thanks

SeekingGC2013,

Using your figures, you are correct that dates would move to the end of March 2008.

In reality, 100% of cases do not get approved, even though they are Current and potentially other cases get added to the Demand that we know nothing about.

Both affect where the Cut Off Date will move to.
03-07-2013, 04:56 PM
SeekingGC2013

Movement

Spec,
But would we know that 4K in below example in the Demand Data published by June Visa Bulletin - and get an idea when the dates would be moved into?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

SeekingGC2013,

Using your figures, you are correct that dates would move to the end of March 2008.

In reality, 100% of cases do not get approved, even though they are Current and potentially other cases get added to the Demand that we know nothing about.

Both affect where the Cut Off Date will move to.
03-07-2013, 05:32 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013

Spec,
But would we know that 4K in below example in the Demand Data published by June Visa Bulletin - and get an idea when the dates would be moved into?

No.

The cases can't be shown in the DD because they are waiting for their PD to become Current for the conversion to an EB2 case to take place.

If they are approved while their PD is Current, they will not show in the Demand Data because a visa is immediately available.

All you would ever see are those that "miss the boat" after dates retrogress again and become pre-adjudicated.

After about May 2007, most porters will not have an I-485 pending under EB3 and will have to file one from scratch. They will likely "miss the boat" due to I-485 processing times.

Before that, those with an already pending I-485 under EB3 are as pre-adjudicated as those with one pending under EB2 IMO. The process of actual conversion to an EB2 basis and ordering a visa is a matter of minutes, assuming all else is good. The have a slightly higher chance of being issued an RFE, if one hasn't been sent fairly recently, but even the non-porting cases may have last been issued one a year ago by the time the dates become Current again.
03-07-2013, 06:15 PM
Vkkpnm

Hi Spectator, I need your expert opinion on a post by Matt on Trackitt, eatimating porting count. Please see below
"As promised yesterday, I am providing the numbers behind my estimate of additional 5000 portings till year end.

There is roughly 1500 portings in the first Quarter as per USICS inventory comparison.This is porting from EB3I to EB2I before July/Aug 2007. And roughly all portings until January are already in the demand data of March 2013. There are two more full quarters of portings which can come into this years demand. and possibly one partial quarter

For Quarter two - 2000 + For Quarter three 2000 and partial quarter 1000. So it totals 5000. I have already added 250 additional in each quarter to accomodate July 2007 to June 2008.

I was intially trying to breakup labor data. To put it together in a small paragraph is too difficult.

The demand data of this month would give more indicators.."

Do you agree on this? Again I am not questioning anyone's judgement and have full respect for that. Just want to share with experts to get realistic figure.
03-07-2013, 09:09 PM
erikbond101

As it was mentioned by Spectator that porting is 100 per month per FY. Then total porting between July 2007 and June 2008 will be 1200 in FY 2013. And some more will need to be added (600) for porting done in FY12 (between April 12-Sep12). Between Sep 2004 and July 2007 porting number will be around 3500-3700.
And in my humble opinion some of them (~30%) will already be part of demand data published in Feb 13. That is how demand data has increased from 5800 (Nov 13) to 7300 (Feb13).
03-07-2013, 09:12 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by erikbond101

As it was mentioned by Spectator that porting is 100 per month per FY. Then total porting between July 2007 and June 2008 will be 1200 in FY 2013. And some more will need to be added (600) for porting done in FY12 (between April 12-Sep12). Between Sep 2004 and July 2007 porting number will be around 3500-3700.
And in my humble opinion some of them (~30%) will already be part of demand data published in Feb 13. That is how demand data has increased from 5800 (Nov 13) to 7300 (Feb13).

No.

I used 100 as an example in this post.

I did not say what I thought it was (deliberately). I also said it would be my last comment on the subject.
03-07-2013, 10:23 PM
gc_soon

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.
03-08-2013, 07:04 AM
mailmvr

Any comment based on murthy's article
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/ail...n-cutoff-dates
03-08-2013, 08:50 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_soon

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.

gc_soon,

EB4 falls up to EB1.
EB5 falls up to EB1.

EB4 does NOT fall down to EB5.

Here is the relevant INA 203 paragraph for EB5 - note it does not mention EB4.

Quote:

(4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

Here, in contrast, is the section for EB1:

Quote:

(1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):
03-08-2013, 09:36 AM
openaccount

April DD reeased:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

2004,2005,2006 numbers increased
2007,2008 numbers decreased compared to March DD.
03-08-2013, 10:05 AM
pdmay2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by openaccount

April DD reeased:http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

2004,2005,2006 numbers increased
2007,2008,2009 numbers decreased compared to March DD.

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?
03-08-2013, 10:12 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?

pdmay2008,

I agree it doesn't look right.

I only see reductions for 2007 (300) and 2008 (675).

Only next month's DD will say whether it is a mistake or not.
03-08-2013, 10:25 AM
ajaydons

Porting??

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

pdmay2008,

I agree it doesn't look right.

I only see reductions for 2007 (300) and 2008 (675).

Only next month's DD will say whether it is a mistake or not.

Could it be porting from EB2 to EB1??
03-08-2013, 10:32 AM
mailmvr

Year MARCH-DD APRIL-DD
2005 300 375
2006 775 1025
2007 1650 7400
2009 27475 26375
03-08-2013, 10:38 AM
Spectator

The EB3-WW figures also have an oddity.

The 345 for Prior to 01 January 2004 is at odds with all the other figures.
03-08-2013, 10:59 AM
YTeleven

It is possible if EB2-I people are porting to EB1-I. You can see similar reduction in EB3-I DD, so far in this financial year the reduction of EB3-I DD is 3625 but the allowed quota for them is ~1400 till today.

Here is my guess for PD movements for APR'13 VB: EB3-I: 2 weeks forward movement, EB2-I: There will be huge backward movement(6 months to 1 year) unless CO considering any extra spillover than monthly allocated quota for EB2-I.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

How is it possible to have less number of 2007, 2008, 2009 compared to last DD without dates being current?
03-08-2013, 12:18 PM
bvsamrat

Is it possible that ported applications (EB3-I to EB2-I) are also added to demand as and when adjudicated?
which should be the case always-IMHO
Then this is good news

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

It is possible if EB2-I people are porting to EB1-I. You can see similar reduction in EB3-I DD, so far in this financial year the reduction of EB3-I DD is 3625 but the allowed quota for them is ~1400 till today.

Here is my guess for PD movements for APR'13 VB: EB3-I: 2 weeks forward movement, EB2-I: There will be huge backward movement(6 months to 1 year) unless CO considering any extra spillover than monthly allocated quota for EB2-I.
03-08-2013, 12:24 PM
erikbond101

This is definitely wrong calculation. If demand has increased by 400 for cumulative 2007, then for 2008 it should be atleast 400 and more increment. By simple extrapolation it should be somewhere between 400 to 1000 (too high) for 2008. So cumulative number should be 7700 to 8000.

2007
dec 1300
jan 1450 150 increase
feb 1550 100 increase
mar 1650 100 increase
apr 2050 400 increase

2008
dec 6400
jan 6850 450 increase
feb 7050 200 increase
mar 7300 250 increase
apr 8000 ~500-700 increase
03-08-2013, 01:05 PM
GhostWriter

Monthly demand data also states the same on the first page.

"Unused numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can “fall-up” from E4 and E5 to E1. This is
taken into consideration when setting monthly/annual targets for number use based on historical/recent patterns."

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

gc_soon,

EB4 falls up to EB1.
EB5 falls up to EB1.

EB4 does NOT fall down to EB5.

Here is the relevant INA 203 paragraph for EB5 - note it does not mention EB4.

Here, in contrast, is the section for EB1:

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc_soon

I've a basic question about spillover. Does EB4 visas spill to EB5 or EB1. In other words, does EB5 receive any spillover from EB4?
Different (unofficial) blogs/sites give contracting information.
03-08-2013, 01:22 PM
geeaarpee

Guesstimate - EB3I porting cases

Quote:

Originally Posted by erikbond101

This is definitely wrong calculation. If demand has increased by 400 for cumulative 2007, then for 2008 it should be atleast 400 and more increment. By simple extrapolation it should be somewhere between 400 to 1000 (too high) for 2008. So cumulative number should be 7700 to 8000.

2007
dec 1300
jan 1450 150 increase
feb 1550 100 increase
mar 1650 100 increase
apr 2050 400 increase

2008
dec 6400
jan 6850 450 increase
feb 7050 200 increase
mar 7300 250 increase
apr 8000 ~500-700 increase

Please let me know if this sound right?
2006 - Diff(40400-41000) = 600
2005 - 30925-31500 = 575
2004 - 23125-23650 = 525
2003 - 11400-11800 = 400
2002 - 1175-1400 = 225
Total - 2325 EB3I to EB2I porting cases (for one month)
Assuming another 6975 porting cases for the next 3 months (assuming cases filed in the last quarter will not be ready for adjudication this FY), total # of porting cases from now until last quarter (for the time period between Sep 2004 and Jan 2007) itself will be sufficient to cover the SOFAD EB2I is expected this year.
Prediction: EB2I Dates will end Mid-end 2007 by end of FY2013. This doesn't include the EB2ROW,M,P,C usage. Pessimistic would be Early-Mid 2007 IMHO.
03-08-2013, 02:06 PM
username

Company charged for fraud

Company charged for fraud:
http://www.firstpost.com/business/in...sa-653042.html
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/18869328.cms

My GC sponsoring company is same mentioned in above news article. I had joined new company using EAD from Oct/2012 but my laywer did not file AC21. Do I need to worry about anything?

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