EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Esteemed Gurus, need help on the following:

I filed an EB1A (I140 and concurrent I485). I got an EAD based on the I485, which I did not use.
Subsequently, the I140 received an RFE, and was denied after RFE response.
My lawyer told me that the I485 will be denied too, as the base I140 has been denied.
Quite a few months have elapsed since then.

Now, I have received an RFE and an interview notice with actual interview date based on the I485 ! Unable to contact old attorney, he might be on long leave. Will consult another lawyer, but wanted some inputs from people here. If I140 was denied, why is USCIS sending me an I485 interview notice ? Should I just ignore ?

It must be a system error, if your I-140 is already denied then there is no point in attending the interview.

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

Esteemed Gurus, need help on the following:

I filed an EB1A (I140 and concurrent I485). I got an EAD based on the I485, which I did not use.
Subsequently, the I140 received an RFE, and was denied after RFE response.
My lawyer told me that the I485 will be denied too, as the base I140 has been denied.
Quite a few months have elapsed since then.

Now, I have received an RFE and an interview notice with actual interview date based on the I485 ! Unable to contact old attorney, he might be on long leave. Will consult another lawyer, but wanted some inputs from people here. If I140 was denied, why is USCIS sending me an I485 interview notice ? Should I just ignore ?

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What is the harm in attending the interview? Let them explicitly clarify in the interview if they did intend to deny. Since it is all discretionary, you may very well get approved after interview.

Don't ever disregard your I-485 interview notice. Show up for the interview and let the IO decide what it was.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

Don't ever disregard your I-485 interview notice. Show up for the interview and let the IO decide what it was.

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I would need to do the medical tests to attend the interview. So there is a monetary component too.

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

Esteemed Gurus, need help on the following:

I filed an EB1A (I140 and concurrent I485). I got an EAD based on the I485, which I did not use.
Subsequently, the I140 received an RFE, and was denied after RFE response.
My lawyer told me that the I485 will be denied too, as the base I140 has been denied.
Quite a few months have elapsed since then.

Now, I have received an RFE and an interview notice with actual interview date based on the I485 ! Unable to contact old attorney, he might be on long leave. Will consult another lawyer, but wanted some inputs from people here. If I140 was denied, why is USCIS sending me an I485 interview notice ? Should I just ignore ?

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I agree with the others. Human mentality is always to look back and think what might have been! I would do due diligence and would go to the interview with everything lined up. All you are doing is obeying their instructions to show up for the interview at the date and time specified. The worst possible scenario is a confirmation of the denial which you already know in which case nothing is lost. I am a physician and nothing irks me more than no-shows to appointments. If you do not show up it might be a negative point on your record. Obviously an attorney would be able to give you more precise advice

I am filing for AOS based on Filing date, my attorney suggests to have medical done and submit it along with AOS applications. She recommends to avoid unnecessary RFE though it costs affront. She mentioned that it's up to me to decide.

Guys, what is your suggestion, I am confused? My PD is 07/09/2009 under EB3 India. Not sure how long does it would take get the Interview date.

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Originally Posted by IamGSN

I am filing for AOS based on Filing date, my attorney suggests to have medical done and submit it along with AOS applications. She recommends to avoid unnecessary RFE though it costs affront. She mentioned that it's up to me to decide.

Guys, what is your suggestion, I am confused? My PD is 07/09/2009 under EB3 India. Not sure how long does it would take get the Interview date.

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I know it is additional money and medicals are valid only for a year, in the event that your date gets current you will be thankful for it since you are already ahead of the line.

Effective November 1, 2018, the I-693 medical report will be valid for two years from the date of submission to USCIS

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Originally Posted by desibhai

Effective November 1, 2018, the I-693 medical report will be valid for two years from the date of submission to USCIS

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Oh.. that's good then

PD - Feb 2011, EB2
I changed my employer few months ago and about to start GC process again with the new employer. My previous I-140 is still valid. GC is too far, but I have a question - when my PD becomes current, can I use that I-140 (with previous employer) for adjustment of status without H1 transfer to them again? Or do I have to be on their payroll for filing I-485?

Q3 Stats were released by the USCIS

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...rms_FY19Q3.pdf

Overall pending applications came down, and end of Q3 Total number of 485 applications approved AOS and COS are 114915.

27003 GC's can be issued in Q4 which is ending in 4 days and of these 4045 were already issued by COS in July and August.

485 rejections are aligned with the I-140 rejection numbers.

77151 applications were received by USCIS and 91357 applications were approved. 5898 applications were denied.

Thanks
Are there any indications of a potential spillover from family category yet ?

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Originally Posted by this2shallpass

Thanks
Are there any indications of a potential spillover from family category yet ?

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The period October - August in FY2019 had 25,235 fewer Consular issued visas for FB than the same period in FY2018.

Given that around 94% of the total approvals for FB are made at Consulates rather than via AOS and an I-485, this is a promising sign.

We'll know the final number of CP approvals in about a month, but the AOS figures probably won't be available until sometime in January at the earliest.

You can follow the Consular Processing figures in this thread.

Based on Spec's post #5199 where he shows what will happen to a hypothetical 10,000 spillover from FB, this is what will likely happen if we receive 25,000 spillover from FB

EB2ROW: ~14 months of supply is currently needed to handle the 12 months of demand as of 2019 . And with the same demand growth, we will be looking at a need of 15 months of supply to handle demand in FY2020.

So, EB2ROW in FY2020 needs 38,610 [30,888 is available but extra 3 months of unsatisfied demand needs supply] green cards to satisfy its demand.

EB2 will get 7150 extra GCs from FB. EB2ROW will get an extra 5150 Green Cards which it will gobble up. So no spillovers coming to EB2-I from EB2-ROW.

EB2-I in itself will get 500 extra GCs on its own which will meet approximately 10 days of EB2-I demand in 2009.

The demand in EB3 as a whole is unknown. So it is not clear how the extra 7150 extra GC that will come from FB will be used up. One can only hope.

Q/Spec and other experts,

Based on July 2018, can we guess current pending numbers for EB2I?

Is there a way to find pending numbers, including field offices using FIOA?

What does this 500 extra GCs for EB2I mean? Where is it coming from and when will that be applied? My PD is 18th May - 6 days away from Oct 2019 Bulletin. It looks so close but so far away. Do I get help with these extra 500 GCs?

Thanks for any insights.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Based on Spec's post #5199 where he shows what will happen to a hypothetical 10,000 spillover from FB, this is what will likely happen if we receive 25,000 spillover from FB

EB2ROW: ~14 months of supply is currently needed to handle the 12 months of demand as of 2019 . And with the same demand growth, we will be looking at a need of 15 months of supply to handle demand in FY2020.

So, EB2ROW in FY2020 needs 38,610 [30,888 is available but extra 3 months of unsatisfied demand needs supply] green cards to satisfy its demand.

EB2 will get 7150 extra GCs from FB. EB2ROW will get an extra 5150 Green Cards which it will gobble up. So no spillovers coming to EB2-I from EB2-ROW.

EB2-I in itself will get 500 extra GCs on its own which will meet approximately 10 days of EB2-I demand in 2009.

The demand in EB3 as a whole is unknown. So it is not clear how the extra 7150 extra GC that will come from FB will be used up. One can only hope.

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Just trying to understand when my PD -18-May-2009 EB2I would be current. Was there any spill over given to EB2I in September? Any insight on the pending inventory estimates as of Oct 1st 2019?

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Based on Spec's post #5199 where he shows what will happen to a hypothetical 10,000 spillover from FB, this is what will likely happen if we receive 25,000 spillover from FB

EB2ROW: ~14 months of supply is currently needed to handle the 12 months of demand as of 2019 . And with the same demand growth, we will be looking at a need of 15 months of supply to handle demand in FY2020.

So, EB2ROW in FY2020 needs 38,610 [30,888 is available but extra 3 months of unsatisfied demand needs supply] green cards to satisfy its demand.

EB2 will get 7150 extra GCs from FB. EB2ROW will get an extra 5150 Green Cards which it will gobble up. So no spillovers coming to EB2-I from EB2-ROW.

EB2-I in itself will get 500 extra GCs on its own which will meet approximately 10 days of EB2-I demand in 2009.

The demand in EB3 as a whole is unknown. So it is not clear how the extra 7150 extra GC that will come from FB will be used up. One can only hope.

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Originally Posted by mokrisin

What does this 500 extra GCs for EB2I mean? Where is it coming from and when will that be applied? My PD is 18th May - 6 days away from Oct 2019 Bulletin. It looks so close but so far away. Do I get help with these extra 500 GCs?

Thanks for any insights.

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I think you will be current whether the SO is applied or not. You have waited so far. I think you can wait for a month or two more.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

Fwiw, my priority date is march 2011 and worst case scenario for me is 11 years of wait time.

You must be aware that eb5-i currently has a backlog of 7 years. Does the conditional greencard given help your son avoid going out of status?

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Just curious, how did you derive to 11 years of wait time?

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

Just curious, how did you derive to 11 years of wait time?

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May be he meant a best case of 11 years wait :)

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Originally Posted by NJMavarick

Just curious, how did you derive to 11 years of wait time?

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The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.

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Originally Posted by gc_dedo

PD - Feb 2011, EB2
I changed my employer few months ago and about to start GC process again with the new employer. My previous I-140 is still valid. GC is too far, but I have a question - when my PD becomes current, can I use that I-140 (with previous employer) for adjustment of status without H1 transfer to them again? Or do I have to be on their payroll for filing I-485?

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As Q shared the GC is for future employment, I guess if Company A is still active and ready to hire you back when GC is approved you can use I-140 from A. But if you want to move back when filing for I-485 itself when dates become current I guess you have to get the H1 transfer to change to EAD after you get the EAD. Just my thoughts

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

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Hi rocketfast, did CO say that EB3 may reach feb2010 at the end of this FY? When did he indicate this? Looks like I have missed that completely.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.

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Thanks! In case of my calculation, the demand destruction was set @30%. EB3 ratio was 25%. The difference would probably come down to couple of years. Though I feel EB3 would get the GC sooner than EB2 as not everyone would be able to downgrade and I set the downgrade % to 40%!