Originally Posted by
Spectator
kd,
I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.
I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.
I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.
Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.
The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.
It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.
At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.
On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.
As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.
An alternative view at least.