EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Congratulations to those able to file under the October 2015 VB.

It's important to note that this may be a "one time" opportunity, or for a limited period only.

Normally, AOS applicants seeking to file an I-485 application would not be able to use the new filing table in the VB and would instead have to visit http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo The Filing table in the VB will normally only be for those using Consular Processing.

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A. STATUTORY NUMBERS

This bulletin summarizes the availability of immigrant numbers during October for: “Application Final Action Dates” (consistent with prior Visa Bulletins) and “Dates for Filing Applications,” indicating when immigrant visa applicants should be notified to assemble and submit required documentation to the National Visa Center.

Unless otherwise indicated in this bulletin, individuals seeking to file applications for adjustment of status with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) in the Department of Homeland Security must use the “Application Final Action Dates” charts below for determining when they can file such applications.

This bulletin may indicate the ability for such individuals to instead use the “Dates for Filing Visa Applications” charts, when USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for the fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas.

Applicants for adjustment of status may refer to USCIS for additional information by visiting www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo.

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The reasons for this have been discussed elsewhere. Generally, an I-485 application may not be filed unless a visa is immediately available (INA 245(a)(3)). If it does not meet this criterion, it appears it would be ineligible to be approved.

For the October 2015 VB, it has been "determined" more visas are available than known applicants. There is no guarantee this will be the case in future VB.

Since CP cases are not filing an I-485, the restriction does not apply to them.

The http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo link has just gone active.

Congratulations to all who will be able to file starting Oct 1. Some good news after long long time.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Congratulations to those able to file under the October 2015 VB.

It's important to note that this is likely a "one time" opportunity.

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Spec, are you suggesting this is an error on DoS's part, or are you suggesting that it will likely be challenged by some anti-India/China group in the court of law?

It appears to be something that is very deliberate and thought through, so I'm little surprised that you present this word of caution. Do you know something that is not public information?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Congratulations to those able to file under the October 2015 VB.

It's important to note that this may be a "one time" opportunity, or for a limited period only.

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The http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo link actually has details of the revised two-date approach. So..Spec, are you suggesting this is going to be challenged in court by some pro-lottery of birth bigot?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Congratulations to those able to file under the October 2015 VB.

It's important to note that this may be a "one time" opportunity, or for a limited period only.

Normally, AOS applicants seeking to file an I-485 application would not be able to use the new filing table in the VB and would instead have to visit http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo The Filing table in the VB will normally only be for those using Consular Processing.



The reasons for this have been discussed elsewhere. Generally, an I-485 application may not be filed unless a visa is immediately available (INA 245(a)(3)). If it does not meet this criterion, it appears it would be ineligible to be approved.

For the October 2015 VB, it has been "determined" more visas are available than known applicants. There is no guarantee this will be the case in future VB.

Since CP cases are not filing an I-485, the restriction does not apply to them.

The http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo link has just gone active.

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Spec- any thoughts on why DoS came up with this strategy?

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

Spec, are you suggesting this is an error on DoS's part, or are you suggesting that it will likely be challenged by some anti-India/China group in the court of law?

It appears to be something that is very deliberate and thought through, so I'm little surprised that you present this word of caution. Do you know something that is not public information?

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

The http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo link actually has details of the revised two-date approach. So..Spec, are you suggesting this is going to be challenged in court by some pro-lottery of birth bigot?

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec- any thoughts on why DoS came up with this strategy?

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I'm suggesting that DOS/USCIS have thought this through and come up with a solution that allows the dates to be advanced for a short period only.

They are doing so on the basis that they are saying that there are more visas available than the demand they know about. One can argue whether that is the complete truth, but it doesn't matter, since it is entirely defensible as a position. The argument about the use of reasonable estimates was used in Xie vs Kerry (the EB3-C lawsuit).

It isn't however a position that can reasonably be held once the new AOS applications have been received and counted (but that may take some time - wink, wink). It may be an argument they can use at the beginning of each FY, or when SO is released. That should be sufficient to keep the dates moving forward quite nicely.

TBH, I was expecting pre-registration with the submission of a "pre-registration packet". The date when USCIS would accept a pre-registration packet would have been published in the VB, or attached to the EAD for I-140 dates.

That would have been more elegant in many ways (and certainly safer), since it would have sidestepped any issues surrounding when an I-485 could be filed. The benefits (EAD, AP, CSPA protection etc) could have been attached to that submission. It would have then truly been the "AOS version" of the current CP process.

The disadvantage would have been that it would have had to follow the full rule making and comment process to implement it.

I have to applaud DOS/USCIS for making the more difficult choice and giving relief earlier.

Bravo!!

PS There was much talk about 14-18k I-485 being expected as a result of any change. I think it will result in far more than that for EB2-I alone.

I think the filing date for EB3-I is extremely mean, considering there is a reasonable argument that they will receive a lot of FA within EB3 in FY2016 and the number of porters/abandonments is as yet unknown. If the EB2-I date had been set on the same basis, it would be a lot earlier than that seen (IMHO). I say that based on the combination of known Inventory and number of visas likely to be available in FY2016.

It's really good news - enjoy it.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Congratulations to all who will be able to file starting Oct 1. Some good news after long long time.

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Suninphx, I am one of those who will qualify to file for I-485 with PD of May 20, 2011. So thanks for the wishes. I don't know why USCIS is adopting this strategy, but I am not complaining.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Suninphx, I am one of those who will qualify to file for I-485 with PD of May 20, 2011. So thanks for the wishes. I don't know why USCIS is adopting this strategy, but I am not complaining.

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me too !! Having missed the boat in 2012 and with a PD of June 2009, I am overjoyed to see this. I hope they move further for both EB3 and EB2 who have been stuck for so long.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm suggesting that DOS/USCIS have thought this through and come up with a solution that allows the dates to be advanced for a short period only.

It's really good news - enjoy it.

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Wow Spec, thanks for the detailed explanation. You must have a PhD on this topic!

All makes sense now, and the bottom line is that anyone/everyone who is eligible should apply for AoS ASAP and not lose any time.

Does anyone know if we need medicals for filing 485 with acceptance date? USCIS/DOS pretty much know that most of the cases in 2010, 2011 will not be approvable any way before the medicals expire. My PD is May 2011 and I am confused if I have to do medicals or not.

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Originally Posted by Transformer

Does anyone know if we need medicals for filing 485 with acceptance date? USCIS/DOS pretty much know that most of the cases in 2010, 2011 will not be approvable any way before the medicals expire. My PD is May 2011 and I am confused if I have to do medicals or not.

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If I have to guess, I would say you need to submit medicals. Since the 'intake' /'acceptance' process is unlikely to be separate, anything that is documentarily missing might automatically trigger an RFE.

I think the NIH, USCIS and the immigration medical documents had a meeting last year, and decided to share revenues generated from this ludicrous exercise, but oh well. Guess getting a titer and paying $200 each year is a small incremental price to pay for what is the lottery of birth...

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm suggesting that DOS/USCIS have thought this through and come up with a solution that allows the dates to be advanced for a short period only.

They are doing so on the basis that they are saying that there are more visas available than the demand they know about. One can argue whether that is the complete truth, but it doesn't matter, since it is entirely defensible as a position. The argument about the use of reasonable estimates was used in Xie vs Kerry (the EB3-C lawsuit).

It isn't however a position that can reasonably be held once the new AOS applications have been received and counted. It may be an argument thay can use at the beginning of each FY, or when SO is released.

TBH, I was expecting pre-registration with the submission of a "pre-registration packet". The date when USCIS would accept a pre-registration packet would have been published in the VB, or attached to the EAD for I-140 dates.

That would have been more elegant in many ways (and certainly safer), since it would have sidestepped any issues surrounding when an I-485 could be filed. The benefits (EAD, AP, CSPA protection etc) could have been attached to that submission. It would have then truly been the "AOS version" of the current CP process.

The disadvantage would have been that it would have had to follow the full rule making and comment process to implement it.

I have to applaud DOS/USCIS for making the more difficult choice and giving relief earlier.

Bravo!!

PS There was much talk about 14-18k I-485 being expected as a result of any change. I think it will result in far more than that for EB2-I alone.

I think the filing date for EB3-I is a extremely mean, considering there is a reasonable argument that they will receive a lot of FA within EB3 in FY2016 and the number of porters/abandonments is as yet unknown. If the EB2-I date had been set on the same basis, it would be a lot earlier than that seen (IMHO). I say that based on the combination of known Inventory and number of visas likely to be available in FY2016.

It's really good news - enjoy it.

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Spec- thanks for detailed reply.

Does this imply DoS is anticipating more Visa's to be available this year and which may cover date of 1 May 2010? And thats why they are doing this inventory building?

PS: Jonty, gcpursuit- I am not complaining either- my question to Spec was in context to question above.

YT- you have been predicting inventory building this coming FY. So there it is :)

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Originally Posted by Transformer

Does anyone know if we need medicals for filing 485 with acceptance date? USCIS/DOS pretty much know that most of the cases in 2010, 2011 will not be approvable any way before the medicals expire. My PD is May 2011 and I am confused if I have to do medicals or not.

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You are no longer required to submit a medical with the I-485 application.

If one is not submitted, USCIS will raise an RFE at the appropriate time.

If the I-693 would likely expire before the Final Action Cut Off Date is expected to be reached, there is no real sense submitting one.

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Timing of the Submission of​ the Medical Examination Report​

​The medical examination report may be submitted to USCIS:​

​• Concurrently with the immigration benefit application; or​

​• At any time after filing the immigration benefit application but prior to the adjudication of that application; if not filed concurrently with the immigration benefit application, USCIS encourages applicants to wait until USCIS requests the medical examination report before submitting it.​

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http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HT...-Chapter4.html

Congrats Jonty, I also can apply for my 485 Finally...what a relief i cannot explain...

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Suninphx, I am one of those who will qualify to file for I-485 with PD of May 20, 2011. So thanks for the wishes. I don't know why USCIS is adopting this strategy, but I am not complaining.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec- thanks for detailed reply.

Does this imply DoS is anticipating more Visa's to be available this year and which may cover date of 1 May 2010? And thats why they are doing this inventory building?

PS: Jonty, gcpursuit- I am not complaining either- my question to Spec was in context to question above.

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suninphx,

Not in my opinion - but what do I know!

It's sufficient pretext to give the relief.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec- thanks for detailed reply.

Does this imply DoS is anticipating more Visa's to be available this year and which may cover date of 1 May 2010? And thats why they are doing this inventory building?

PS: Jonty, gcpursuit- I am not complaining either- my question to Spec was in context to question above.

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Didn't mean that you were complaining either. Congrats to you also and everyone else who can file for AOS. :)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

Not in my opinion - but what do I know!

It's sufficient pretext to give the relief.

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:) ..lets enjoy the good news

Looks like I'm going to miss the boat on this one, almost 2nd time :(

My PD is Oct 2010, but the company split and I got moved to the other company. And they are going to file new PERM next month thru the other company. Can't use successor-in-interest relationship as per lawyer for reasons I don't understand.

Is there a way I can file for AOS now, and then use AC21 with "other" company?

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec- thanks for detailed reply.

Does this imply DoS is anticipating more Visa's to be available this year and which may cover date of 1 May 2010? And thats why they are doing this inventory building?

PS: Jonty, gcpursuit- I am not complaining either- my question to Spec was in context to question above.

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oh no. Didn't mean that you were complaining about it. I am happy it happened ( for whatever reason ) to help some people at least if not all.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

:) ..lets enjoy the good news

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Have a quick question. May be it is a stupid question. But I still think I need to clarify this. There are several people on trackitt who are claiming that you can only apply for EAD and AP with acceptance cut-off date and not file I-485.

I thought that you can file for I-485, EAD and AP all together with acceptance cut-off date since you can't apply for EAD and AP separately on their own without an accompanying I-485 (yes you can file EAD and AP later after filing for I-485 but you still have to file I-485 before you send your EAD and AP applications). I understand that if the immigrant visa numbers are not available, you will get EAD and AP but won't get a GC. Also, I can file for I-693 if I want to but it is not mandatory right now. I will get an RFE from USCIS for not filing I-693 and I can submit my medicals then.

Can you or someone clarify on this please?

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Have a quick question. May be it is a stupid question. But I still think I need to clarify this. There are several people on trackitt who are claiming that you can only apply for EAD and AP with acceptance cut-off date and not file I-485.

I thought that you can file for I-485, EAD and AP all together with acceptance cut-off date since you can't apply for EAD and AP separately on their own without an accompanying I-485 (yes you can file EAD and AP later after filing for I-485 but you still have to file I-485 before you send your EAD and AP applications). I understand that if the immigrant visa numbers are not available, you will get EAD and AP but won't get a GC. Also, I can file for I-693 if I want to but it is not mandatory right now. I will get an RFE from USCIS for not filing I-693 and I can submit my medicals then.

Can you or someone clarify on this please?

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Jonty,

I saw that as well (when the site would actually load).

As far as I am concerned, the date governs filing an I-485, of which EAD and AP are a benefit.

I'd go as far as to say anyone only filing for EAD/AP will have the application rejected. There has to be a basis for it. For filing based on an I-485, it's (c)(9) if I remember correctly.

There are a few other totally incorrect posts as well, but I won't give them the oxygen of publicity.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

You are no longer required to submit a medical with the I-485 application.

If one is not submitted, USCIS will raise an RFE at the appropriate time.

If the I-693 would likely expire before the Final Action Cut Off Date is expected to be reached, there is no real sense submitting one.


http://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HT...-Chapter4.html

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Spec, not sure how you do it but you are amazing! I had this question about medicals to my attorney (Mur***) within minutes of the VB along with a link to the policy manual timing section and they said that they still advise submitting medicals with AOS applications 'at this time'. Emphasis in quotes is mine.

I see your logic which is what everyone wonders about but..I am not going to worry about a couple of hundred dollars given the risk / benefit.

Congratulations to everyone who will be able to file!

Spec or Gurus,

I am confused with the current bulletin. My PD is April 17 2009. I filed my 485 and got EAD/AP in Sept 2015. Is the current bulletin helpful to me in any way? Can I expect to get GC ? Do I do any SR/Senator/Congressman etc. to expedite approval? Or does it not apply to me at all ?

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Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

Spec or Gurus,

I am confused with the current bulletin. My PD is April 17 2009. I filed my 485 and got EAD/AP in Sept 2015. Is the current bulletin helpful to me in any way? Can I expect to get GC ? Do I do any SR/Senator/Congressman etc. to expedite approval? Or does it not apply to me at all ?

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I don't think so since the approval dates are still stuck at 05/01/2005. You already have EAD and AP which you can keep renewing and also have benefit of AC21. So you are not affected by this change and in my opinion, this does not apply to you. This is mainly helpful for those with PDs from May 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011 who have not filed for I-485 so far. You will benefit when the approval cut-off dates would move beyond your priority date so that you are eligible to get an actual GC. In this case, these are acceptance dates only and not approval dates. People under these dates will get GC only if possibly there are additional immigrant visa numbers available (don't know how that's going to happen) and if that happens, then I think your number in getting a GC should be ahead of us since your PD is in 2009.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Jonty,

I saw that as well (when the site would actually load).

As far as I am concerned, the date governs filing an I-485, of which EAD and AP are a benefit.

I'd go as far as to say anyone only filing for EAD/AP will have the application rejected. There has to be a basis for it. For filing based on an I-485, it's (c)(9) if I remember correctly.

There are a few other totally incorrect posts as well, but I won't give them the oxygen of publicity.

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Thanks Spec. That's what I thought but just got little confused because of conflicting posts on trackitt.

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Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool

Spec or Gurus,

I am confused with the current bulletin. My PD is April 17 2009. I filed my 485 and got EAD/AP in Sept 2015. Is the current bulletin helpful to me in any way? Can I expect to get GC ? Do I do any SR/Senator/Congressman etc. to expedite approval? Or does it not apply to me at all ?

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saagar_is_cool,

The new DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS are of no concern to you, since you have already filed your I-485.

You now have to wait for the APPLICATION FINAL ACTION DATES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES to surpass your PD, at which time your I-485 will become eligible for approval.

PS I assume you filed in Sept 2014, when the dates were current for your PD.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

saagar_is_cool,

The new DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS are of no concern to you, since you have already filed your I-485.

You now have to wait for the APPLICATION FINAL ACTION DATES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES to surpass your PD, at which time your I-485 will become eligible for approval.

PS I assume you filed in Sept 2014, when the dates were current for your PD.

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Spec,

I have a question. Way back in 2007 my husband and I filed under my primary application with EB3 -I PD June 2006 date. After that his company has filed his EB2 case with May 2010 PD. Now he becomes eligible to go on his own and have job portability. We didn't want to kill the EB2 option so he didn't move even though he has filed for AOS in 2007. Can we do interfiling based on this VB, what happens when EB3 final dates reach 2006. Can USCIS then consider my application as primary?

Spec, Just curious if the USCIS will 'Approve' approximately 12K Visas every month (including Fall Across and Spill Overs)? This would mean a steady movement of 'Approval Dates' every month till say June every year and then swing based on the true-up of Visas to the Per Country Limit?

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Originally Posted by anuprab

Spec,

I have a question. Way back in 2007 my husband and I filed under my primary application with EB3 -I PD June 2006 date. After that his company has filed his EB2 case with May 2010 PD. Now he becomes eligible to go on his own and have job portability. We didn't want to kill the EB2 option so he didn't move even though he has filed for AOS in 2007. Can we do interfiling based on this VB, what happens when EB3 final dates reach 2006. Can USCIS then consider my application as primary?

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Looks like you are stuck in both the ques. Just wait it out for 3 months and you will know the trend of Spill Overs

Hi All,

Congrats all for the new VB dates. Don't know if this is right thread to post this.

Below is the list of doc's and other stuff required to file I485. Appreciate if you can append/update if anything else required.

The only documents required for filing 485 are as follws .

1. G-325 Information Sheet- Each adult,
2. Six passport pictures for each family members
3. Sealed Envelop of Medical Examination. For USCIS authorized doctors. (If you are sending medicals)
4. Copy of all previous visa approval notice and related document (i.e. I-20 for F-1 visa holder, I-797 for E-2, H-1B…)
5. Copy of the latest I-94 (US entry arrival /departure record)
6. Copy of all the pages of passport, including empty pages
7. Copy of Driver’s license, if any
8. Copy of Birth Certificate or Family Register showing name, date of birth, place of birth and parent names
9. Evidence of marital status (Marriage License, Divorce Certificate, if applicable)
10. Filing Checks for each family members: Payable to U.S. Department of Homeland Security
• $1070 for adults (per each)
• $635 for under 14 years child


Thanks!

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Spec, Just curious if the USCIS will 'Approve' approximately 12K Visas every month (including Fall Across and Spill Overs)? This would mean a steady movement of 'Approval Dates' every month till say June every year and then swing based on the true-up of Visas to the Per Country Limit?

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By law, there is a limit of 27% of total EB visas in each of the first 3 quarters.

That equates to 37,800 per quarter, or 12,600 per month.

By regulation, not to exceed, in any month of a fiscal year, 10% of the world-wide total made available under INA 203 (a), (b) and (c) plus any balance remaining from authorizations for preceding months in the same fiscal year.

That would equate to a maximum of 14,000 for October.

Those limits, as it relates to EB have to account for all approvals (AOS and CP) for all Categories and Countries.

I'm starting to suspect part of the reason EB2-I is so retrogressed for October is that a large number of cases for other Categories and Countries are also waiting for October (the new FY) to resume approvals and there may not be the scope to allocate extra visas to EB2-I in October itself.

That's very speculative by the way. My opinion may change depending on what I see during the remainder of this week and the beginning of next week.

I assume employment verification letter is required?

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Originally Posted by Aurora

Hi All,

Congrats all for the new VB dates. Don't know if this is right thread to post this.

Below is the list of doc's and other stuff required to file I485. Appreciate if you can append/update if anything else required.

The only documents required for filing 485 are as follws .

1. G-325 Information Sheet- Each adult,
2. Six passport pictures for each family members
3. Sealed Envelop of Medical Examination. For USCIS authorized doctors. (If you are sending medicals)
4. Copy of all previous visa approval notice and related document (i.e. I-20 for F-1 visa holder, I-797 for E-2, H-1B…)
5. Copy of the latest I-94 (US entry arrival /departure record)
6. Copy of all the pages of passport, including empty pages
7. Copy of Driver’s license, if any
8. Copy of Birth Certificate or Family Register showing name, date of birth, place of birth and parent names
9. Evidence of marital status (Marriage License, Divorce Certificate, if applicable)
10. Filing Checks for each family members: Payable to U.S. Department of Homeland Security
• $1070 for adults (per each)
• $635 for under 14 years child


Thanks!

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Spec- is there a possibility that DoS knows about large FB visas coming to EB? I just can't get my head around timing of this move by them. There must be something which has prompted this. Any speculations?

Spec - are you hinting they could in theory maintain the July2011 date throughout the FY or even advance it using this?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It isn't however a position that can reasonably be held once the new AOS applications have been received and counted (but that may take some time - wink, wink). It may be an argument they can use at the beginning of each FY, or when SO is released. That should be sufficient to keep the dates moving forward quite nicely.

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Hi All / Spec / YTEleven - EB3I approval/ acceptance dates are a major disappointment. As a lot of us are anticipating Fall across to EB3I in 2016 and the approval dates to move into 2007, an acceptance date of somewhere in 2008 would have been reasonable. EB3I retrogression is also another shocker. What would you think is the rationale behind the poor movement for EB3I.

Where can we anticipate EB3I approval and acceptance dates to end up in the next 3 - 4 quarters? Any thoughts?

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Suninphx, I am one of those who will qualify to file for I-485 with PD of May 20, 2011. So thanks for the wishes. I don't know why USCIS is adopting this strategy, but I am not complaining.

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Congratulations from a fellow physician! Quite a few of us keep coming back everyday just to hear good things happen to patient people in this forum.

To Spec and other seniors

One of the points I wanted to note is a similar process being applied to the family based categories also. The DoS has always maintained that demand in other countries is hard to estimate thereby resulting in suboptimal utilization of the FB visa ceiling of 226000 annually. The advancement of both acceptance and approval dates of FB categories needs to be closely monitored as spillover to EB categories may be decreased due to more efficient distribution of FB visas. Although the EB category has benefited from this, my feeling is that this two-tier bulletin system is to help move the FB categories along.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec- is there a possibility that DoS knows about large FB visas coming to EB? I just can't get my head around timing of this move by them. There must be something which has prompted this. Any speculations?

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I suspect that the 'Acceptance Date' is a double edged sword. While it does give relief to most backlogged countries in EB Category, it also reduces the Spillover of FB Visas to EB because the FB Category also has 'Acceptance Date' and that would result in maximum usage of FB Visas leaving no Spillover to EB Category.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

By law, there is a limit of 27% of total EB visas in each of the first 3 quarters.

That equates to 37,800 per quarter, or 12,600 per month.

By regulation, not to exceed, in any month of a fiscal year, 10% of the world-wide total made available under INA 203 (a), (b) and (c) plus any balance remaining from authorizations for preceding months in the same fiscal year.

That would equate to a maximum of 14,000 for October.

Those limits, as it relates to EB have to account for all approvals (AOS and CP) for all Categories and Countries.

I'm starting to suspect part of the reason EB2-I is so retrogressed for October is that a large number of cases for other Categories and Countries are also waiting for October (the new FY) to resume approvals and there may not be the scope to allocate extra visas to EB2-I in October itself.

That's very speculative by the way. My opinion may change depending on what I see during the remainder of this week and the beginning of next week.

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I agree with you about large number of cases in ROW that are waiting for approval in EB2. But that is not the case with ROW EB3, which is almost current and the very fact that they opened the flood gates for India in EB3 for FY15 means that the situation will continue into the FY16. But apart from this, I do not see anything alarming in Retrogression of Dates in October VB as it is a standard feature of every October VB.

The Question I had was - If they have targeted to 'Approve' say 14K Visas in October, what will happen if they do not have enough cases within the Current PD's of respective Categories? Will they SO/FA and use up the balance Visas in October itself or carry them over to November? If they carry them over, till what month will they carry over before SO/FA to Backlogged countries? Will it be a monthly feature or Quarterly feature?

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

I agree with you about large number of cases in ROW that are waiting for approval in EB2. But that is not the case with ROW EB3, which is almost current and the very fact that they opened the flood gates for India in EB3 for FY15 means that the situation will continue into the FY16. But apart from this, I do not see anything alarming in Retrogression of Dates in October VB as it is a standard feature of every October VB.

The Question I had was - If they have targeted to 'Approve' say 14K Visas in October, what will happen if they do not have enough cases within the Current PD's of respective Categories? Will they SO/FA and use up the balance Visas in October itself or carry them over to November? If they carry them over, till what month will they carry over before SO/FA to Backlogged countries? Will it be a monthly feature or Quarterly feature?

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The last time EB2-I saw an October VB COD that was retrogressed from the September VB COD was in 2008. For EB3-I, it is sometime before 2005. This time it probably reflects that the EB3-I COD was pushed far ahead of what the available visa numbers were in September. As a result, many cases will fall through to FY2016 necessitating retrogression.

In October, DOS/USCIS can't approve cases that are not earlier than the Final Action COD.

So even, for instance, if approvals in EB3 for other Countries were low in October, only EB3-I cases with a PD earlier than 08MAR04 could receive approvals. I'm not convinced that will be the case - the last USCIS Inventory showed a fairly large number of EB3-WW cases awaiting final adjudication.

The law talks about potential SO release only per quarter. It remains to be seen whether DOS will move to a quarterly SO release model. There are dangers, as well as advantages to doing so.

The changes do nothing to make it easier to determine the numbers of cases in a situation where the COD is Current or near current. That is determined by USCIS processing the I-140 petitions, which in turn is largely determined by DOL's processing of PERM (for most EB2/EB3 cases).

Even if USCIS start passing information about approved I-140 to DOS, there are a large number of pending I-140 yet to be adjudicated (of Category and Country unknown to us). The number has generally been rising over the last 2 years. It reached a low point in September 2013 (7.2k) and stood at 33k at the end of Q3 FY2015 according to USCIS own figures. It hasn't really been that high since 2009. If those numbers come down, then the numbers of I-485 in the Inventory will rise where an I-485 has been already been, or is, filed (since the Inventory only shows I-485 associated with an approved I-140 petition).