EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

If we will take porting into consideration that will add another 6K till Mar08. (at max but to be optimistic it will be 3K )

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erikbond101 - Porters should increase exponentially (atleast not progressively) as we move the dates beyond 2007. Even between the 2005-2007/08, I believe, USCIS sees a number of porting cases and thats why they set the cut-off dates at Sep2004. I even believe porters should increase exponentially after April 2005, becos, till then the RIR and TR (non-RIR) processes were a pain to get a labor approved and not many people are left in the GC queue anymore (either they got GCs, ported already or left the country :)) - remember the Perm labor changed the picture altogether, even with Perm the initial few months (Apr-Jun'05) the employers and attorneys were reluctant to file and once they see labor approvals in 60 days, they started filing in mass and the EB3 demand data reflects that. This whole thing caused USCIS to put an end on the substitution labor stuff but I strongly believe that back-fired them with this huge backlog - but the other side they are milking money - earlier there used to be one labor - it either gets used or sustituted, now it gets used or wasted. Wastage is good for USCIS, because for the same guy another labor will be filed by another employer.

So my point is, 3k is very low - should be atleast double that number in reality, especially if you are looking at date movements beyond late 2007.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Spec,

As usual, great post.. I agree with your estimation of 7k/year towards porting.

However, if dates do not move until Q4, do you think 7k applications would be processed in-time to award the visas before the dates move back again?

Do you think there would be gradual movement or one big time movement ?

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ChampU,

A slight correction. It is SeekingGC2013's estimate. I deliberately did not say what I think the number is - I am still thinking about it. But considering FY2013 will have 12 + 4 months worth of porting, it is going to be higher than normal.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013

Hey Spec

In the below Calclation - what about Spiilover from EB4 & EB5 - your calculation on Page1 shows another 4.5K SO from EB4&EB5 - is that added looks like total visas would be 20K as you predicted earlier.

FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k

Total ------------------- 15.9k

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SeekingGC2013,

Well it is your calculation. The 5k in the above is NET Fall down From EB1. Since you didn't show EB4 and EB5 separately I have to assume you included it. Gross Fall Down would be that 5k plus 1.3 plus 1.3 (1.3k extra FB visas EB4 & EB5 received) plus 5.1k (extra FB visas that EB1 received) to total 12.7k gross spillover. In your calculation above those 7.7 extra visas are already included in 8.1k FB Visa figure. The difference to 8.1k is the 0.4k that EB2-I receive automatically.

The figures on the first page are gross spillover (i.e includes the extra FB numbers to each Category).

So EB4 represents 8k usage - approx 2k net spillover plus 1.3k from FB.

Similarly, EB5 represents full usage of the original allocation, leaving only the extra 1.3k extra from FB.

EB1 represents 35k usage, which is 5k net spillover plus 5.1 extra from FB. The extra is a rounding and calculation error.

etc

I hope that explains it.

As I note at the bottom of the last update, things have moved on since it was originally written.

Edit:- PS Thanks Kanmani. Beat me to it with much more succinct post.

SeekingGC2013,

I hope that Spec's 1st page prediction comes true , With ongoing discussions like this he is becoming stingier by cutting numbers post by post :)

Spec, people are reading your posts everywhere all around and passing your findings,calculations to DOS . Spec, Pls give us more !

I think I got confused again.

Spec, 21K sofad or 15.9K ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

I think I got confused again. Spec, are you standing by your 21K sofad and rewriting SeekinGC2013's 15.9 your way? Buzz......

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Kanmani,

Sorry about that.

The original first page post is outdated and too optimistic. I didn't realise some of the finer points that have emerged since it was originally written. I've only really left it there as history.

Roughly speaking I am somewhere at about 17k total visas for EB2-I currently. I am allowing 2k more spillover than SeekinGC2013 but also allowing for EB2-C to receive an additional 1k visas.

With EB2-C receiving about 4k, that would be 21k total SOFAD.

The real problem is that I don't have a good grasp of how many visas EB1 are likely to use (so I am effectively guessing) or the number of porting cases that will actually be approved before the end of FY2013. Plus, I don't have a good estimate of how many case might become Current but not actually be approved before the FY ends. I tend to call those "left behind". All these factors will impact how far the dates can move.

There are too many variables and not enough information to be other than fairly general. Really, that's why I can't give a very good prediction. As you suggest, I can be rather good at being pessimistic and 18k has already reduced to 8k for EB2-I as far as the FB visas are concerned!!

Spec told clearly
19.8

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

I think I got confused again.

Spec, 21K sofad or 15.9K ?

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Spec,

I'll take that 17k from you.

We optimistic group would like to add those 4.4k from EB2 WW and still look for something more too. ( Just like we use to pray for Indian cricket team getting a spot in the World Cup QF , merely not by winning, in a way expecting the other strong teams to lose within the pool. Jaihind!)

Lets wait and see.

Murthy posted AILA news today (dated March,01, 2013):
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/ail...-cutoff-dates/

Spec:Buddy, you are now cutting hope down post by post. :) Can we expect 2007 EB2I to be cleared by end of Sept. 2013?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec,

I'll take that 17k from you.

We optimistic group would like to add those 4.4k from EB2 WW and still look for something more too. ( Just like we use to pray for Indian cricket team getting a spot in the World Cup QF , merely not by winning, in a way expecting the other strong teams to lose within the pool. Jaihind!)

Lets wait and see.

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Kanmani,

LOL.

Here's the things that I'm thinking about now (if anyone is remotely interested).

EB1

Clearly the 25.2k approvals in FY2011 were low due to Kazarian.

Logically, if cases were delayed because of that, EB1 approvals in FY2012 should have been high.

So what does a normal post-Kazarian year look like? Again, logically it might be somewhere in between.

Pre Kazarian, EB1 used 41k in both FY2009 and FY2010.

A straight average of FY2011 and FY2012 would give 32.3k, which would be a drop of 21% from pre-Kazarian days. That is a lot when you consider that EB1A and EB1B only represent 40-50% of total EB1 approvals. Is it realistic?

Then, there is the EB1C issue. EB1C approvals appear to be increasing (difficult to tell exactly how much) and are immune from Kazarian. EB1-I approvals increased 108% in FY2012 over FY2011. Even compared to FY2010 they were 41% higher. What is the reason?

EB4

Prior to FY2011, EB4 usually used their entire allocation. In FY2011, concurrent filing for Religious Workers was withdrawn part way through the year, hence it was not surprising to see the approvals drop that FY.

I was surprised that approvals were still low in FY2012. Instead, the backlog of I-360 cases has continued to rise.

My worry is that if USCIS decide to reduce that backlog, we are going to see a return to full use of EB4 visas, remembering that Religious Workers now need an approved I-360 to submit an I-485.

EB5

From the trend over the past few years and the I-526 receipt numbers, we should expect EB5 to reach around 10k in FY2013.

The backlog of I-526 cases continues to increase. There is no concurrent filing for EB5, but 87% are Consular Processed anyway.

EB5 has had some problems recently with the "Tenant Occupancy" methodology for determining job creation numbers. This has probably had a depressing influence on numbers so far this year.


For every Category that might produce Fall Down to EB2, there are questions, questions and more questions. Nothing is obvious.

CO has better visibility on these issues for sure, but I think even for him, it is going to be very difficult to release any potential Fall Down until July 2013 at the earliest.

This is very useful despite greenspan-speak from CO (unlike ben bernanke, alan greenspan used to deliver info and let markets struggle to decipher it).

So here is the bottomline that I understood and my opinion thereof in parentheses:

1. EB1 - excess numbers from other countries will ensure EB1 IC won't be retrogressed. (IMHO EB1 by itself will barely provide 1K to EB2. So expect EB1 to pass through the entire spillover it receives from EB4/5).
2. EB5 - 75% more demand than previous year. How still no retro for EB5C. (Last year demand was 7.8K. 75% more is 13K. With FB spillover the limit will be 11K. So expect no sofad. It's a wonder that EB5C is not retrogressed).
3. EB4 - (CO skipped this one. But expect 3K sofad max here consistent with prior year).
4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.(Full year that would be 13K. However, not all is pre 2004. Nor all is not EB2IC. But the biggest hint CO provides is that pre 2004 will possibly reach limit i.e. 2.8K. My rough guess is - if EB3I is giving 2.8K over 19 months (Nov 2002 - Sep 2004) then we should expect equal numbers between Sep 2004 - Sep 2008. Rounding out - 6K is a reasonable number to expect until Mid 2008 for EB2IC.

So all in all - all of this is quite in line with the thought that EB2IC will - other than FB spillover - will receive a very small SOFAD which together with regular EB2I quota we should expect to cover most of the EB2I porting alone. So we should apply FB spillover (12K in my judgement) to oct 485 inventory which then should bring EB2I date to Apr 2008 only. Sorry to be this pessimistic... but that's the only reasonable conclusion we can get from this. I guess if there is ANY upside to this prediction - the only place it can come from is EB5.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Murthy posted AILA news today (dated March,01, 2013):
http://www.murthy.com/2013/03/01/ail...-cutoff-dates/

Spec:Buddy, you are now cutting hope down post by post. :) Can we expect 2007 EB2I to be cleared by end of Sept. 2013?

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Spec - you can reduce your uncertainty about EB1 like this:

A = 2012 actual EB1 usage
E = 2013 Estimated EB1 usage
F2011 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2011
F2012 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2012

E = A + F2012 - F2011

You can make this a bit more accurate by introducing denial rate D (5% may be?)

E = (A / (1-D) + F2012-F2011) * (1-D)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.

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Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters

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Kanmani,

True.

It isn't a very useful number. It contains 2011 PD and normal non-porting cases with a PD of 2011 would be expected.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - you can reduce your uncertainty about EB1 like this:

A = 2012 actual EB1 usage
E = 2013 Estimated EB1 usage
F2011 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2011
F2012 - 485 EB1 inventory on 1st Oct 2012

E = A + F2012 - F2011

You can make this a bit more accurate by introducing denial rate D (5% may be?)

E = (A / (1-D) + F2012-F2011) * (1-D)

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Q,

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think that works because the USCIS Inventory only contains a small subset (I-485 with I-140 already approved) of the total numbers.

That works fine for a Category or Country that is generally quite retrogressed, because in time all the I-140 are approved.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory totally understates the true numbers.

Thanks Kanmani - I misread it as all areas except worldwide ie. ICMP.
That correction actually solves a big hunch I always had in EB2ROW demand. EB2ROW demand always showed much more than what the labor data would indicate. So 13K is the ROW porting in EB2. That's interesting.
On another note - I would still be comfortable at 6K porting for EB2I prior to mid 2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q, those 1100 were EB3 WW porters

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think that works because the USCIS Inventory only contains a small subset (I-485 with I-140 already approved) of the total numbers.

That works fine for a Category or Country that is generally quite retrogressed, because in time all the I-140 are approved.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory totally understates the true numbers.

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Spec - for EB1 inventory is actually a snapshot - so a much smaller subset. However if you think about it the formula gives pretty accurate demand for EB1 except the CP inventory. In fact one can modify F2012 and F2011 to include NVC numbers and the formula becomes perfect. I wouldn't worry about pending 140 with the assumption that both years exhibited similar 140 behavior (approval and denial rate and flowthrough rate).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks Kanmani - I misread it as all areas except worldwide ie. ICMP.
That correction actually solves a big hunch I always had in EB2ROW demand. EB2ROW demand always showed much more than what the labor data would indicate. So 13K is the ROW porting in EB2. That's interesting.
On another note - I would still be comfortable at 6K porting for EB2I prior to mid 2008.

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Wow. 13K WW porters? That's huge. Not sure if that's been increasing (like porting from EB3-I) That might reduce the spill from EB2ROW to EB2-I?

Yes of course it must be increasing. EB3ROW never had any pains. Their pain started when the vertical spillovers became horizontal (around 2007?). Thus EB3ROW was deprived of the huge spillover from EB4/5/1/2. And EB2IC started receiving it. So obviously an EB3ROW candidate will do what an EB3IC candidate will do - port. What's surprising is that the volume of EB3I is comparable to EB3ROW (at least when looking at 485 cases). Yes the porting in ROW is 2-3 times more than EB3I. That would be interesting.

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Wow. 13K WW porters? That's huge. Not sure if that's been increasing (like porting from EB3-I) That might reduce the spill from EB2ROW to EB2-I?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

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Thanks for the clarification Q.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yes of course it must be increasing. EB3ROW never had any pains. Their pain started when the vertical spillovers became horizontal (around 2007?). Thus EB3ROW was deprived of the huge spillover from EB4/5/1/2. And EB2IC started receiving it. So obviously an EB3ROW candidate will do what an EB3IC candidate will do - port. What's surprising is that the volume of EB3I is comparable to EB3ROW (at least when looking at 485 cases). Yes the porting in ROW is 2-3 times more than EB3I. That would be interesting.

Anyway ... but this fact doesn't alter EB2IC fate because these numbers are already baked into EB2ROW demand. It was just a mystery why there was a disconnect between PERM and visa usage for EB2ROW.

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IMO - HR3012 also would have contributed to increased EB3ROW porting. If HR3012 would have become law then EB3 ROW would have felt most impact.

I already have an analysis of Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW over the period FY2011, FY2012 and FY2013 to date which I have mentioned before.

That shows that porting cases in normal EB2-ROW have varied from 13.3% in FY2011 to 9.8% in FY2012 and FY2013 to date. NIW has virtually no porting cases.

As I have said previously, there are other reasons why actual approvals differ from any calculation based on basic PERM approvals.

Between 9% and 13% of EB2-ROW approvals over the period are for Indian nationals with ROW chargebility. For EB2-NIW the figure is between 1 and 3%. PERM certification data is by Nationality and will not reflect this.

Another indeterminable % of approvals will be from Schedule A cases that do not need a PERM certification. I have no estimate for this.

Finally, NIW cases are not captured in the PERM data. They accounted for 11% of total EB2-ROW approvals in FY2011, 14% in FY2012 and currently 19% in FY2013.

Together, it means that EB2 approvals from PERM certifications are likely to represent only two thirds or less of the total. In other words, any PERM based calculation for EB2-ROW needs to be multiplied by 1.5 or more.

The data isn't good enough to do the same analysis for Mexico and Philippines.

It should be noted that Philippines are likely to have a far higher % of Schedule A cases than ROW.

Too late to do anything with it tonight.

I'll try to update FACTS & DATA over the weekend.

It doesn't appear to have been a very productive quarter for DOL.

The latest PD Month Certified is really only September 2012 and even that only appears to be half complete.

Edit:- The updated figures are now available in FACTS & DATA.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Too late to do anything with it tonight.

I'll try to update FACTS & DATA over the weekend.

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Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

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Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

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But it can't be all eb2 #s right, some might be eb3 right? AND it shouldn't be just eb2I porting right? all the eb2row,M,P,C portings will affect our SOFAD right?

Also I see the following figures - am I missing something or probably looking at a wrong report?

Total - 16,724
Denied/Withdrawn - 2212
Certified - 12,123
India - 6,935(57%)

The PERM Data posts have now been updated in the FACTS & DATA section.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

Out of 6859 India certifications, how many porting cases we can expect 30% of it. That makes around 2250 cases, and if you add family members it comes around 5000 numbers. This is my guess on these numbers. Please feel free to comment on this.

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Where did the 30% come from? And don't say I made it up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The PERM Data posts have now been updated in the FACTS & DATA section.

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Thanks Spec.
Is it possible to arrive at the porting figure from the PERM data. For eg, when someone ports, I guess they apply for a new PERM and I-140. So a new PERM certified with a PD of 2008 can be easily assumed to be an EB2. If that's the case porting numbers seem extremely low. I guess I must be missing something. Or is it the case that the porters dont have old PD till they interfile? In that case what are the old PDs? (Are they audit cases just being approved?)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Thanks Spec.
Is it possible to arrive at the porting figure from the PERM data. For eg, when someone ports, I guess they apply for a new PERM and I-140. So a new PERM certified with a PD of 2008 can be easily assumed to be an EB2. If that's the case porting numbers seem extremely low. I guess I must be missing something. Or is it the case that the porters dont have old PD till they interfile? In that case what are the old PDs? (Are they audit cases just being approved?)

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I think those are the audit cases. Until interfiled (which happens at the new EB2 140 stage), USCIS has no way to know whether it is a porting case or not (I shouldn't say no way, atleast USCIS can assume whether those are porting cases or not with the records they have. But they don't and they shouldn't for several reasons - not all second perm is a porting case - it could be due to issues with previous perm/employer and also due to ignorance - some people weren't kept cognizant of the fact that they have an approved/valid I-140, etc by their employers). Even after interfiling, USCIS has no obligation to pre-adjudicate the corresponding I-485 (if filed already), thats why we are seeing people in the forums, talking about calling the L2 and checking whether their cases are pre-adjudicated or not.

Spec and other gurus - Please correct me if I'm wrong...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

This is very useful despite greenspan-speak from CO (unlike ben bernanke, alan greenspan used to deliver info and let markets struggle to decipher it).

So here is the bottomline that I understood and my opinion thereof in parentheses:

1. EB1 - excess numbers from other countries will ensure EB1 IC won't be retrogressed. (IMHO EB1 by itself will barely provide 1K to EB2. So expect EB1 to pass through the entire spillover it receives from EB4/5).
2. EB5 - 75% more demand than previous year. How still no retro for EB5C. (Last year demand was 7.8K. 75% more is 13K. With FB spillover the limit will be 11K. So expect no sofad. It's a wonder that EB5C is not retrogressed).
3. EB4 - (CO skipped this one. But expect 3K sofad max here consistent with prior year).
4. EB2 - 1100 porting in EB2ICMP in december alone.(Full year that would be 13K. However, not all is pre 2004. Nor all is not EB2IC. But the biggest hint CO provides is that pre 2004 will possibly reach limit i.e. 2.8K. My rough guess is - if EB3I is giving 2.8K over 19 months (Nov 2002 - Sep 2004) then we should expect equal numbers between Sep 2004 - Sep 2008. Rounding out - 6K is a reasonable number to expect until Mid 2008 for EB2IC.

So all in all - all of this is quite in line with the thought that EB2IC will - other than FB spillover - will receive a very small SOFAD which together with regular EB2I quota we should expect to cover most of the EB2I porting alone. So we should apply FB spillover (12K in my judgement) to oct 485 inventory which then should bring EB2I date to Apr 2008 only. Sorry to be this pessimistic... but that's the only reasonable conclusion we can get from this. I guess if there is ANY upside to this prediction - the only place it can come from is EB5.

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Q - I'm assuming this is the pessimistic scenario and things shouldnt get any worse than this......right???

My personal view on the situation is that given the lack of published data on porting for WW and I...the CO will get away with what he wants to do....he makes it a point to make it (whatever he says) happen at the end of the day....so whatever he says over the next few months in meetings with AILA will happen.......if my memory doesnt beat me...he has mentioned end of 2007 but that was some months ago...lets see if he improves on that.

Natvyas - Based on what we know now - I think Apr 2008 would be pessimistic yes. I guess I am reasonably confident about overall sofad being around 22K. However that's not including porting. The porting is going to be the dark horse here. So if porting is 6-7K ... we are looking at Apr 2008. At less SOFAD and slight upside from either EB1 or EB4 or EB5 we can look at July 2008. Beyond July 2008 this year would be difficult for approval (but the dates can always move beyond what can be approved).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Q - I'm assuming this is the pessimistic scenario and things shouldnt get any worse than this......right???

My personal view on the situation is that given the lack of published data on porting for WW and I...the CO will get away with what he wants to do....he makes it a point to make it (whatever he says) happen at the end of the day....so whatever he says over the next few months in meetings with AILA will happen.......if my memory doesnt beat me...he has mentioned end of 2007 but that was some months ago...lets see if he improves on that.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Thank you Spec,

Quick summary....

Total cases processed = 13,606
Denied/Withdrawn = 1,638 (12%) (FY2011 = 18.2%, FY2012 = 14.4%)
Certified = 11,968 (88%)
INDIA = 6,859 (57.3%) (FY2011 = 52.2%, FY2012 = 55.5%)
CHINA = 766
MEXICO = 252
PHILIPPINES = 344
ROW = 3,747 (31.3%) (FY2011 = 35.4%, FY2012 = 33.3%)
ROW-M-P = 4,343 (36.3%) (FY2011 = 42.0%, FY2012 = 38.4%)

Overall increase in IND certifications, decrease in ROW-M-P demand, decrease in Denied/Withdrawn cases.

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to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

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Couple of points: Doesn't the 4343 number, include all EBs ,meaning Eb1+Eb2+Eb3.
Also CO said porting for ROW is 1200 in Dec 2012; assuming an avg of 1200 per month, the porting number might be close to 12K(ignoring last couple of months in FY) right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

to Calculate the ROW-MP demand for the year, does this approach look okay:

4343 is the PERM approved in first quarter
Hence for 3 quarters = 13029 (those filed in last quarter wont be processed in time)
Actual demand = 13029 times 2 = 26058
Carried over from FY2012 = 7000
Total Demand (barring porting) = 33000
Porting = 6000
Total Demand = 39000

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natvyas,

Even though I agree with your final figure (not necessarily how you arrived at it), I wouldn't even get that complicated. DOL only processed about 2 months worth of PERM in Q1 2013. I suspect they'll catch up over the year.

The underlying monthly PERM approvals hasn't changed that much.

Last year, 9 months produced 25k approvals in EB2-WW. Prorated that is about 33k for a full year.

For FY2013, 33 + 8 = 41k which is about what EB2-WW have as an allocation with the extra FB visas (39k).

With the error margins, it's just easier to say EB2-WW will use their allocation and provide no Fall Across to EB2-I.

There are headwinds and tailwinds around that calculation, so it is a good compromise IMO.

If you want to look in more detail, you probably need to split out Mexico, Philippines and ROW and look at them individually, because they all behave differently. e.g. Philippines is likely to have higher Schedule A and CP while ROW is likely to have higher NIW cases.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

natvyas,

Even though I agree with your final figure (not necessarily how you arrived at it), I wouldn't even get that complicated. DOL only processed about 2 months worth of PERM in Q1 2013. I suspect they'll catch up over the year.

The underlying monthly PERM approvals hasn't changed that much.

Last year, 9 months produced 25k approvals in EB2-WW. Prorated that is about 33k for a full year.

For FY2013, 33 + 8 = 41k which is about what EB2-WW have as an allocation with the extra FB visas (39k).

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FY2012 may have an unusually high number of EB2-WW. A lot of folks rushed to apply their I-485. There certainly was a spike in I-485s in June if you look at trackitt. Then there wasn't a massive flood in November once dates were C again, which is what I expected. (The USCIS dashboard numbers barely changed from baseline). I think WW will consume about 32K only. The long term trend is for 2K/month. I don't believe porting is nearly as high as has been reported.

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Originally Posted by justvisiting

FY2012 may have an unusually high number of EB2-WW. A lot of folks rushed to apply their I-485. There certainly was a spike in I-485s in June if you look at trackitt. Then there wasn't a massive flood in November once dates were C again, which is what I expected. (The USCIS dashboard numbers barely changed from baseline). I think WW will consume about 32K only. The long term trend is for 2K/month. I don't believe porting is nearly as high as has been reported.

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justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

My analysis of the dashboard figures suggests the November EB2-WW numbers were fairly high.

Around 50 seems to be a normal Trackitt monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

Im a newbie to this forum. I see many calculations based on trackitt perm / 140 trackers and hence would like to know if it adequately conveys visa demand. Out of 5 folks that I personally know of with priority dates in 2008, except me no one has their case in trackitt. Same in EB2 ROW (2 of them who got their GC in less than a year, but have no idea about trackitt). I understand that we have to work with what we have and make assumptions. Having said that would all hope for dates to go somewhere into late 2008 or 2009.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

justvisiting,

All those I-485 submitted in June 2012 will be approved in FY2013, as Cut Off Dates didn't return to Current until November 2012. There were 171 Trackitt EB2-ROW cases submitted in June 2012. Of those, 135 have now been approved and 36 still remain.

Actually, there was a spike in November 2012. Trackitt has 140 EB2-ROW applications submitted in November 2012, compared to 29 in October 2012. December 2012 shows 55 EB2-ROW applications submitted to date.

Around 50 seems to be a normal monthly EB2-ROW number over the last 2.5 years.

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seattlet - welcome to forum. The short answer to your question is "Statistics". Most of the people who use trackitt date or any other data - normalize the numbers there with actuals in the past. e.g. in the past trackitt used to have 1:26 ratio of EB2IC folks. In other words 1 out of 26 people used to register on trackitt. So that's who people would do with any other source of data.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seattlet

Im a newbie to this forum. I see many calculations based on trackitt perm / 140 trackers and hence would like to know if it adequately conveys visa demand. Out of 5 folks that I personally know of with priority dates in 2008, except me no one has their case in trackitt. Same in EB2 ROW (2 of them who got their GC in less than a year, but have no idea about trackitt). I understand that we have to work with what we have and make assumptions. Having said that would all hope for dates to go somewhere into late 2008 or 2009.

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Spec..if there won't be any fall-across to EB2I from Eb2 WW then in that case how we are predicting Eb2I approvals going into early 2008? Shouldn't there be no movement in that scenario ( I hope that's not the case)? Also to make things worse we are speculating that Eb1 might consume all Eb4 and Eb5 leftovers...what am I missing?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

With the error margins, it's just easier to say EB2-WW will use their allocation and provide no Fall Across to EB2-I.

There are headwinds and tailwinds around that calculation, so it is a good compromise IMO.

If you want to look in more detail, you probably need to split out Mexico, Philippines and ROW and look at them individually, because they all behave differently. e.g. Philippines is likely to have higher Schedule A and CP while ROW is likely to have higher NIW cases.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Spec..if there won't be any fall-across to EB2I from Eb2 WW then in that case how we are predicting Eb2I approvals going into early 2008? Shouldn't there be no movement in that scenario ( I hope that's not the case)? Also to make things worse we are speculating that Eb1 might consume all Eb4 and Eb5 leftovers...what am I missing?

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SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

SmileBaba,

Currently I see EB2-I receiving about 17k total visas, made up of their initial allocation and the rest being Fall Down from EB4, EB5 and EB1.

That is enough to move to April 2008 even if 100% of known cases were approved (with an allowance for porting).

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Thanks Spec! I would like to think so too!