EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by gs1968

To spec
Is it possible that some of the FB visas may have been adjustment of status through the I-485 process if they are already present in the USA in some other status? In that case the USCIS would adjudicate the application

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Both the DOS and USCIS figures give that breakdown either directly or easily calculable.

For FB approvals in FY2015 the USCIS Yearbook shows it directly in table 7.

Adjustments of Status --- 16,783
New Arrivals ----------- 197,127

Total ------------------ 213,910

In the DOS Visa Statistics, Table V shows Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status while Table VI just shows Immigrant Visas Issued. The difference is therefore Adjustment of Status approvals.

Adjustments of Status --- 16,831
Immigrant Visas -------- 208,840

Total ------------------ 225,671

Spec:

Is an FB SO possible in the near future? If so, does it apply equally across all categories or only to the most retrogressed categories?

Thanks

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Originally Posted by vyruss

Spec:

Is an FB SO possible in the near future? If so, does it apply equally across all categories or only to the most retrogressed categories?

Thanks

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Please read post #5199.

Thanks, Spec. Appreciate the breakdown and the logic of FB SO.

Has anyone who downgraded from eb2 to eb3, in late Jan, got their I140 approved? Mine has been pending since Jan 30th. Should have been a straightforward case. Not sure why it should take so long for USCIS to process.

There are a few instances where people even got greened after a downgrade. Those people had a PD of June '09. See other immigration forums for such cases. Looks like your Pd is from 2010. Was your I-140 in premium? Are you now applying in EB3 to get an EAD?

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Originally Posted by vyruss

There are a few instances where people even got greened after a downgrade. Those people had a PD of June '09. See other immigration forums for such cases. Looks like your Pd is from 2010. Was your I-140 in premium? Are you now applying in EB3 to get an EAD?

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Yes PD is Jan 2010. Since this was eb2 to eb3 downgrade and did not include original PERM, they did not file in premium. Tried to upgrade to premium in March. It was not accepted, though the previous I-140 was filed in the same service center. Lost half a grand there in legal fees and related expenses.

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Has anyone who downgraded from eb2 to eb3, in late Jan, got their I140 approved? Mine has been pending since Jan 30th. Should have been a straightforward case. Not sure why it should take so long for USCIS to process.

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Which service center? A lot of Nebraska regular filing downgrades have already been approved on trackitt. Texas is slower...

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Yes PD is Jan 2010. Since this was eb2 to eb3 downgrade and did not include original PERM, they did not file in premium. Tried to upgrade to premium in March. It was not accepted, though the previous I-140 was filed in the same service center. Lost half a grand there in legal fees and related expenses.

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6 months timeline is being quoted for i-140 processing. So you may be in that time frame. Check the processing times for your service center.

Mine is in TSC. As per the site it is supposed to be faster than NSC and shows 4 to 6 months: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/
Will need to raise a service request if it is not approved by month end.

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Mine is in TSC. As per the site it is supposed to be faster than NSC and shows 4 to 6 months: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/
Will need to raise a service request if it is not approved by month end.

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Reach out to your congressman too, I think that’s what pushed mine forward

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Originally Posted by kb2013

Has anyone who downgraded from eb2 to eb3, in late Jan, got their I140 approved? Mine has been pending since Jan 30th. Should have been a straightforward case. Not sure why it should take so long for USCIS to process.

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I did downgrade in Jan end , PD is March 2010 , 140 was approved last month.( approx 4.5 months). It was Nebraska , Texas May be slower , I won’t worry too much about it , you might be approved in a week or two .

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Originally Posted by maverickwild

I did downgrade in Jan end , PD is March 2010 , 140 was approved last month.( approx 4.5 months). It was Nebraska , Texas May be slower , I won’t worry too much about it , you might be approved in a week or two .

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Thanks for the info.

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Originally Posted by ferric

Reach out to your congressman too, I think that’s what pushed mine forward

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Sure. Will follow up once it crosses the processing window.

Check-in with Charlie 7/18:

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Check-in with Charlie 7/18:

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

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One of the most complete and interesting Check-in's ever published.

I encourage everyone to read it.

The low lights are:

a) The August VB FAD is already applied for all of EB3 and EB3 Other Workers.

b) EB1-India has now been made "Unavailable" for the remainder of FY2019.

c) Immediate cut-off in visa usage could very well occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the end of the fiscal year if demand continues to remain high.

d) EB5-India and EB5-Vietnam will not return to Current in October. Both should expect to have a FAD imposed for the foreseeable future.

There is an awful lot of good info in the article, so once again, I encourage people to read it in full.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

One of the most complete and interesting Check-in's ever published.

I encourage everyone to read it.

The low lights are:

a) The August VB FAD is already applied for all of EB3 and EB3 Other Workers.

b) EB1-India has now been made "Unavailable" for the remainder of FY2019.

c) Immediate cut-off in visa usage could very well occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the end of the fiscal year if demand continues to remain high.

d) EB5-India and EB5-Vietnam will not return to Current in October. Both should expect to have a FAD imposed for the foreseeable future.

There is an awful lot of good info in the article, so once again, I encourage people to read it in full.

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Regarding EB2-I, it does not say anything in particular about stalling, going back or forward movement. All it talks about is other categories, little bit about EB3-I but nothing about EB2-I. Am i missing something ?

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Originally Posted by lville

Regarding EB2-I, it does not say anything in particular about stalling, going back or forward movement. All it talks about is other categories, little bit about EB3-I but nothing about EB2-I. Am i missing something ?

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You should interpret it as some movement in EB2-I next month.

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Originally Posted by vyruss

You should interpret it as some movement in EB2-I next month.

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Ahh. Gotcha. What is the likelihood or when can I expect Eb2-I to cross May 22, 2009 ? Considering there are close to 1500 in May 2009(not including dependents), does that it mean it will take more than 1 year to cross May 2009 ?

There will be at least 3 days movement per month is what I guess. That is based on extremely simplistic assumptions; 20 days of filing in May 2009 (this excludes weekend and memorial day) and spread the 1500 demand evenly over 20 days or 75 per day; assuming you get 234 GC allotment for EB2I per month; you end up with a 3 day movement per month. Now, this is extremely simple; I do not have any more insights than this; maybe people like Q and Spec can shed some more light on this. Given these assumptions, you are looking at 5 months or February 2020 to be current.

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Originally Posted by vyruss

There will be at least 3 days movement per month is what I guess. That is based on extremely simplistic assumptions; 20 days of filing in May 2009 (this excludes weekend and memorial day) and spread the 1500 demand evenly over 20 days or 75 per day; assuming you get 234 GC allotment for EB2I per month; you end up with a 3 day movement per month. Now, this is extremely simple; I do not have any more insights than this; maybe people like Q and Spec can shed some more light on this. Given these assumptions, you are looking at 5 months or February 2020 to be current.

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PI for May 2009 and June are 1400,1400. Can it be assumed safely that EB2I will move to July 1st 2009 by October 2020 and cross September 2009 by October 2021? July has 900, August has 800 and September has 1000

Hi Gurus,
One clarification I need regarding visa spill over or allocation to Philippines (EB3).
From USCIS statistics on Green cards issued both in US and consulates, Philippines getting more than 2800 visa per year, if spill over is happed for excess visas, does not EB3 India get more visas than Philippines, as India is more backlogged than other countries.
Not sure , what I am missing?.
Here is Green cards issued under EB3 for Philippines.

FY'16 ~ 11,500
FY'17 ~ 10,000
FY'18 ~ 12,000

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html

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Originally Posted by siriyal75

Hi Gurus,
One clarification I need regarding visa spill over or allocation to Philippines (EB3).
From USCIS statistics on Green cards issued both in US and consulates, Philippines getting more than 2800 visa per year, if spill over is happed for excess visas, does not EB3 India get more visas than Philippines, as India is more backlogged than other countries.
Not sure , what I am missing?.
Here is Green cards issued under EB3 for Philippines.

FY'16 ~ 11,500
FY'17 ~ 10,000
FY'18 ~ 12,000

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html

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I'm not entirely sure where in the tables you are getting your figures, but the Correct ones are in Table V.

So, for FY2018, they would come from this Table which shows a total of 7,059 EB3 Visas and AOS approved for Philippines. The number is made up of 6,588 EB3 plus 471 EB3 Other Workers.

This subject has been covered many times, but I will do so once again.

The 7% limit is calculated against the entire number of EB & FB allocations. This mentioned in every VB.

For the base allocations of 226,000 for FB and 140,000 for EB, 7% of 366,000 is 25,620.

As this figure is initially prorated across the different Categories, it's easy to think that the limit for EB3 would be 40,040 * 7% = 2,803.

That's not entirely correct, because under use in other Categories can allow another Category to use visas up to the overall 7% limit.

Let's simplify it to start with and just consider EB. For the minimum 140,000 allocation, 7% would be 9,800.

Here's what it would look like for Philippines for FY2016 to FY2018.

Philippines -- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total EB --- Limit EB
FY2016 ------- 173 -- 1,985 -- 6,579 ---- 164 ----- 16 ------- 8,917 ------ 9,824
FY2017 ------- 136 -- 1,785 -- 6,675 ---- 228 ------ 0 ------- 8,824 ------ 9,800
FY2018 ------- 176 -- 1,532 -- 7,059 ---- 200 ----- 18 ------- 8,985 ------ 9,820

As you can see, Philippines did not exceed 7% of the visas available based just on EB.

Here's what it looks like for EB and FB.

Philippines -- Total EB ---- Total FB ---- Total EB/FB ---- Limit
FY2016 ---------- 8,917 ------ 10,229 --------- 19,146 --- 25,644
FY2017 ---------- 8,824 ------ 10,816 --------- 19,640 --- 25,620
FY2018 ---------- 8,985 ------ 12,228 --------- 21,213 --- 25,640

FB number adjusted to exclude F2A exempt which do not count towards the 7% limit.


The reason it's important to undertand that the 7% limit is calculated against FB & EB allocations is that South Korea habitually uses more than 7% in EB. They can do so because they use very few in FB Categories.

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the clarification, as you are doing for many years.
Yes, this has been discussed many times, but still I missed the bigger picture, by focussing on India :).
I may be wrong, I assumed there two links on the page, first one is for AoS, the second one , I thought Consular Processing.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...bleV-Part2.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...eVI-PartII.pdf

Aos -> FY2018 ------- 176 -- 1,532 -- 7,059 ---- 200 ----- 18 ------- 8,985 ------ 9,820
CP -> FY2018 ------- 12 -- 371 -- 4567 ----0 ----- 0 ------- 4,950 ------

Total -> 8985+4950 = 13,935.

Additional questions.

With July bulletin Philippines, EB3-P became current, though it retrogressed in August.
Can we assume, bulk of EB3 backlog for Philippines is cleared, Can EB3-I get additional visas next FY'20, if any spill over available.
Is there any chance, EB spill over visas allocated to FB category, we have seen FB visas spill over to EB in 2013/14, but not sure about the reverse.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by siriyal75

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the clarification, as you are doing for many years.
Yes, this has been discussed many times, but still I missed the bigger picture, by focussing on India :).
I may be wrong, I assumed there two links on the page, first one is for AoS, the second one , I thought Consular Processing.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...bleV-Part2.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...eVI-PartII.pdf

Aos -> FY2018 ------- 176 -- 1,532 -- 7,059 ---- 200 ----- 18 ------- 8,985 ------ 9,820
CP -> FY2018 ------- 12 -- 371 -- 4567 ----0 ----- 0 ------- 4,950 ------

Total -> 8985+4950 = 13,935.

Additional questions.

With July bulletin Philippines, EB3-P became current, though it retrogressed in August.
Can we assume, bulk of EB3 backlog for Philippines is cleared, Can EB3-I get additional visas next FY'20, if any spill over available.
Is there any chance, EB spill over visas allocated to FB category, we have seen FB visas spill over to EB in 2013/14, but not sure about the reverse.

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Table V is titled

Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status

where "Visas Issued" refers to Consular Processing. With CP, the actual visa is issued and stamped in the applicants passport.

and "Adjustment of Status" refers to those adjusting status within the USA.


Table VI is titled

Preference Visas Issued

so it is only showing the number of CP cases approved.

If you add the two tables together, then it's double counting the CP approvals and you would get (for FY2018)

FB - 224,090 + 211,641 = 435,731 (versus an allocation of 226,000)
EB - 139,483 + 27,345 = 166,828 (versus an allocation of 140,292)

To prove the point further,

Table IV shows Immigrant Visas issued at the individual Consulates - the figure is 533,557.

Table III breaks those down into broad classes such as EB, FB etc. - the total figure is 533,557 of which EB accounts for 27,345.

Table VI has a total of 27,345 for EB Categories.