EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by idliman

Well this is an interesting read from Sheela Murthy and other senior attorneys of her law firm.


We can sit here analyze the heck out of VB. Surely things are happening that are beyond our control. An indication might be seen in recent interview of S.Miller in NBC for his plans for the 2nd term of his president.

---

Well I agree with your statement Idliman that things are beyond our control.

The answer to me looks biased and this is my take based on experiences of my known associates and me.

The law firm helping my employer and employees did not send the AOS documents till last day possible (the signatures were taken in the middle of this week). And we all hundreds and hundreds of people got confirmation yesterday 10/30 that the files were sent out to USCIS. I heard same story from many of my friends that were dealing with big law firms across the board that the petitions were not sent out up until 10/28 through 10/30.

So my take is law firms tried to keep the two organizations in dark as far as possible (to keep the dates status quo) and the organizations just retaliated by not moving the dates as we all expected them to. Hope in next 2-3 weeks the flood of applications are going to be reviewed and more appropriate data will be available for the organizations to take an informed decision on FA Dates.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09

Well I agree with your statement Idliman that things are beyond our control.

The answer to me looks biased and this is my take based on experiences of my known associates and me.

The law firm helping my employer and employees did not send the AOS documents till last day possible (the signatures were taken in the middle of this week). And we all hundreds and hundreds of people got confirmation yesterday 10/30 that the files were sent out to USCIS. I heard same story from many of my friends that were dealing with big law firms across the board that the petitions were not sent out up until 10/28 through 10/30.

So my take is law firms tried to keep the two organizations in dark as far as possible (to keep the dates status quo) and the organizations just retaliated by not moving the dates as we all expected them to. Hope in next 2-3 weeks the flood of applications are going to be reviewed and more appropriate data will be available for the organizations to take an informed decision on FA Dates.

---

This might be true too... As USCIS would not be able to guess the load... yeap i heard same story from most of my friends using big law firms... i dont know what they gained doing this , as many were so stressed with their cases not filed till last date...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ak7419

Hello folks - I am in a strange situation and do not know how things will transpire. I am current in Nov bulletin with EB2I PD Sep 2009. My EAD/AP is going to expire on Dec 12, 2020. Will they be issuing me a new EAP/AP combo card? My DL is going to expire on the same day Dec 12, 2020 and I am not sure how I should proceed. I
am worried that I will have to be off payroll if EAD is not issued on time. Any suggestions?

---

Congrats, getting GC in hand may take a couple of months for you. At least in Texas, they approve DL for a year while you are waiting for your EAD/AP renewal. Take an appointment and check with the DL office, you should be good.Congrats once again.

EB3 2011 here as well. Thx for asking :)

Question (EB3-I oct 2010) - how many months after the PD becomes current in FAD the GC is issued ? Filed 485 in October; and assuming FAD becomes current may 2021 will the GC issued before Oct 2021

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rocketfast

I am curious on why there is a trend of creating google spread-sheets when there is already a trackitt tracker for I-485 applications here:
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigra...ackers/i485-eb

---

I believe it's mainly because trackitt data cannot be downloaded, people find it easier to follow in google sheets.may be we should just contact the admin of trackitt so the can add this feature, and we can have one source.

Once it becomes current, the time to approval can vary from 3weeks to 3 months in most cases. The major factor impacting the is wheather there is an rfe. If there is no RFEs, mostly approvals come within 3-6 weeks. In some cases with rfe, it could even take 5 months. But those are exceptions. Also assuming here that the rfe is responded to in a few days.

Gurus, do you think FAD EB2I will advance by one month or more in next bulletin

EB2i movement in Oct VB - 7 weeks
EB2i movement in Nov VB - 3 weeks
EB2i movement in Dec VB - 1 week?
Let’s hope for the best

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by newsletter1978

Gurus, do you think FAD EB2I will advance by one month or more in next bulletin

---

As per July 2018 EB2I pending inventory there are 10727 cases from July 2009 to April 2010. Out of 261000 GC available for FY 2021, EB2 quota is 74780 and India gets 7%(5235) plus spill over.

DOS can issue maximum of 27% of available EB GCs each quarter. If the spillover from 27%(20191) of EB2 is applied quarterly to EB2I then dates should move to May1st 2010 in December Bulletin otherwise 2-3 weeks is the minimum movement we should see.

JULY 968
AUGUST 801
SEPTEMBER 1006
OCTOBER 1127
NOVEMBER 1000
DECEMBER 1148
JANUARY 1086
FEBRUARY 1074
MARCH 1273
APRIL 1244

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.

---

I am one of those but still processing is needed to issue RFEs, isn't it? Almost all of them have expired medicals and we also need to submit 485J. Staff needs to open all of these cases, identify the ones that need RFEs, issue them, wait for their response, re-process the case and then issue GC. Perhaps that is what CO is referring to?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Good News ! I would assume very small nuisance removed for EB applicants, but this is huge for FB applicants I am sure.

---

It may improve the 485 processing times, but my how much? That is the real question.

All,
I have moved the Elections and impact discussions to a new thread:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ct-Discussions

Why all downgrade petitions go to trxas

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485-addresses
It is based on the state one resides. All EB based on I140 are filed either in TX or AZ. I am not sure if the workload transfer applies for 485.

---

For non downgrade cases you are correct. But if you look at the link, cases to be filed along with i-140 just have the Dallas lockbox address. If you either have a receipt of i-140/approval notice along with your application, then it would depend on your location. So all downgrade cases by the virtue of not having a receipt of i-140 will go to Dallas. Now will it be processed in texas or be transferred to a different location, that's a USCIS call. Anyways, none of this matters as long as we keep getting the receipt notices.

Any chance of VB this week?

I hope from this month at least FAD should move minimum 2 to 3 months for EB2I and EB3I

Any predictions number gurus :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gcconnect

Any chance of VB this week?

I hope from this month at least FAD should move minimum 2 to 3 months for EB2I and EB3I

Any predictions number gurus :)

---

Just take it easy and enjoy the month of Nov, gcconnect :).
I have taken Nov 30th as the day the VB will be out - Better to keep the expectations low and plan for a good holiday season. Zen mode after many years of being there and getting disappointed - LOL

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

It was filed with Dallas lockbox but the notification came from the National Benefits Center (Receipt number starts with MSC). It’s a regular EB2 case, no downgrade.

---

My downgrade application was mailed on the Oct. 9. No word yet, checks are yet to be cashed. I have wondered what I will do if they reject it because it was filed as a standalone I-140 for EB3 and not an amendment. I am not worried about running out of time, it will likely be decided this month. The worry is if I want to file as an amendment even if there is time to do so.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Positive

My downgrade application was mailed on the Oct. 9. No word yet, checks are yet to be cashed. I have wondered what I will do if they reject it because it was filed as a standalone I-140 for EB3 and not an amendment. I am not worried about running out of time, it will likely be decided this month. The worry is if I want to file as an amendment even if there is time to do so.

---

From what I have read, the issue with rejected I-485 downgrades have to majorly do with them being having filed in premium. So attorneys started adjusting for that and recommending to first wait for the receipts first before seeking premium processing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

From what I have read, the issue with rejected I-485 downgrades have to majorly do with them being having filed in premium. So attorneys started adjusting for that and recommending to first wait for the receipts first before seeking premium processing.

---

Thanks, that is reassuring.

Whats the prediction from December Visa bulletin?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Whats the prediction from December Visa bulletin?

---

Wouldn't it be fun if the DoS asks the admin to go pound sand and massively move the dates?

Pessimistic view is the EB2-I will move to Nov 22, 09 and Eb3-I moves to May 1, 10

Logically, they should move FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 to 1 May,2010, since almost all the cases are pre-adjudicated and just need a Visa.
Thoughts?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I

Logically, they should move FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 to 1 May,2010, since almost all the cases are pre-adjudicated and just need a Visa.
Thoughts?

---

That's what I was also expecting, or at least the dates moving 3 months in Oct and Nov so that as a whole it can move toward May 2011 at a gradual but consistent pace. But nothing is logical and if this continues they will end up wasting visas at the end of the fiscal. The only hope is a new admin coming in Jan and setting things straight and use all the numbers available at least for this fiscal and check if Congress is going to do anything about spillover for FY2022. That's why Democrats not having the Senate is a double edged sword. No immigration reform but no other bills will also pass. That's just my opinion.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Wouldn't it be fun if the DoS asks the admin to go pound sand and massively move the dates?

---

Sounds like Thousandwala:D . Diwali wishes are pouring from Admin.

Prediction, EB3I will be 1 May 2010 , EB2I will be 15 Nov 2009.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I

Logically, they should move FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 to 1 May,2010, since almost all the cases are pre-adjudicated and just need a Visa.
Thoughts?

---

They can move as much as they want but the applicants who were current since three months have not even received RFE :(

So, what I understand is , current processing time for I-485 is up to 45 Months , timer will start once FAD is current, correct?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 1312011_eb2I

So, what I understand is , current processing time for I-485 is up to 45 Months , timer will start once FAD is current, correct?

---

45 months might be an exaggeration but it is taking anywhere from 3 to 6 months.

Happy Diwali to all. May you and your loved ones live happier healthier and more prosperous lives!

As you celebrate Diwali don't forget India's farmers who have been forced into selling their produce at below cost prices since 1947 and have been driven into abject poverty today. To the extent you can support fair prices for agricultural produce in India.

Attachment 1717

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Happy Diwali to all. May you and your loved ones live happier healthier and more prosperous lives!

As you celebrate Diwali don't forget India's farmers who have been forced into selling their produce at below cost prices since 1947 and have been driven into abject poverty today. To the extent you can support fair prices for agricultural produce in India.

Attachment 1717

---

Happy Diwali to you too, Q and everyone else here!

We received Biometric appointment for 1st December.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by inspired_p

We received Biometric appointment for 1st December.

---

Thank you for the update. looks like you filed on 23rd October. did you receive the receipt notice along with appointment letter?

I know there was some debate on A numbers and whether they change. Well, I was trying to look up my wife's case and they couldn't find it and when we received the notices, her A number was different than what was previously issued for OPT EAD. So it looks like it can change between applications maybe between F1 and other types.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rabp77

Friends, happy to inform you all that we just received the approval notice. Extremely thankful to q and spec for the forum, comments, encouragement and advice. You guys rock. Hoping the queue keeps moving ahead fast, and we see lots of approvals in the next year.

---

rabp77,

Congrats on your approval.




I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section with the full FY figures for FY2020.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rabp77

Friends, happy to inform you all that we just received the approval notice. Extremely thankful to q and spec for the forum, comments, encouragement and advice. You guys rock. Hoping the queue keeps moving ahead fast, and we see lots of approvals in the next year.

---

. Congratulations rabp77 on your approval

If the response to a service request came from Texas Service Center, does it mean that my I-485 case is being handled by TSC? My receipt number starts with LIN.

Inspired p
Did u file at Texas service center?
And file eb2 to eb3 downgrade in premium

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section with the full FY figures for FY2020.

---

Thanks Spec. I took another look through the numbers - and man is the situation dire!! More than 50K/year PERMs for India and like 13K for China - and no regulatory relief on the horizon. Covid will help matters for long suffering folks - but those that entered the queue in last couple years are looking at decades of wait.

Interesting that EB-2/3-China will likely be the big sufferer going forward as well. They will soon need spillover as their annual demand will significantly outpace annual quota - but the giant backlog of India will suck up any spillover.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

Inspired p
Did u file at Texas service center?
And file eb2 to eb3 downgrade in premium

---

It was filed in Nebraska - EB3 fresh application with PERM