We all should not forget
VB was set as of oct 12, so they definitely have no clue how many applications in eb2 and eb3
I guess December should see good forward movement and also they have to use 65000 gc per quarter
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We all should not forget
VB was set as of oct 12, so they definitely have no clue how many applications in eb2 and eb3
I guess December should see good forward movement and also they have to use 65000 gc per quarter
Idliman,Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
This is a gem of a post! You have outlined very realistic scenarios for Dec and Jan Bulletins. And also, very balanced view of your expectation from a different immigration friendly administration with full understanding that it may just remain a dream. Let's just hope and pray that future is better than the past.
I was about to reply to that, the bulletin was materialized on October 12 as mention in the footnote, wonder why they held up for almost 2 weeks.
Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: October 12, 2020
Even for the last bulletin, they did this
Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: September 8, 2020
Friends,
Anyone have a metrics (only guesstimate based on previous years number) about EB3 India counselor processing demand for 2009 (June to December) and 2010.
Just curious to know , how the consulate open will impact the final action date for EB3 India. Does it make EB3I to retro-gate ?
I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countriesQuote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
I need more data to believe in this hypothesis. Remember in September some of us were certain that this administration will NOT let ppl. to even file so much in advance and here we are! Therefore, I need a trend line of at east 4-6 month through this Fiscal to comment on the visa wastage. Right now all I see is so much uncertainty and variability with a potential of an admin. change that could be imminent. Its anybody's guess right now. Depending on whether you are a glass half full or empty person you can be living either in a false exuberance or an imminent doom world of yours.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
I don't think I would jump to that conclusion. At least not yet. By accepting a large number of applicants, the stage is set to approve them quickly in case visa numbers are available at the end of fy, and all processing has been completed. Slow movement initially doesn't mean it will continue to be so for the rest of fy. In the past, pace of movement has been accelerated during the fy at times. I think there is a good probability that eb2 movement can get much faster than 3weeks per month that we saw in November.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Idliman,Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
I am glad that I would be able to file my AOS in Oct 2020 after a long wait so no room for disappointment. Hope my lawyer sends my AOS file tonight fingers crossed.
My perspective on rapid movement is different, may be once we go back and compare to 2018 and 2019 visa bulletins, it is a rapid movement as the dates were crawling one day or two days or none bulletin to bulletin
Occams Razor - These are Federal Govt employees who will work like a sloth. They just dont have the processing capacity (and willingness) to move things quickly. Anecdotal evidence is the amount of time it is taking to send out receipts for new filings. If you start seeing a spurt in Card Mailed on Trackitt it will be the forward indicator that dates will move "rapidly" in subsequent VB. Till then keep refreshing the visa bulletin page:(Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Spec,
Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.
One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.
Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.
If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.
Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.
Since there is no USCIS final action date mentioned, what is the Final Action Date for November 2020 for EB2 India and EB3 India ?
That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
That is true. But the push mainly will be to allocate additional visas to FB by recapturing unused visa numbers. There were already quite a few bills going around which would help the doctors/essential works by granting them GCs this way. So I would not worry about FB. Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)
Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives :)Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
Vedu, this Is what I am thinking as well. Let's wait for Spec's realistic answer ( if he chooses to reply that is).Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .
BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.
Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged
Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.
When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.
EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.
Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.
If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.
Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged
Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.
When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.
EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.
Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.
If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.
Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged
Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.
When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.
EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.
Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.
If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.
The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moveon
The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.
I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moveon
Downgrades will happen across the board as and when EB3 FAD starts chugging forward regardless of the PD ranges.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
That's not a rule. Its been a general practice with exceptions.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Yes, you are right and I have seen those people. I do not see things as D's vs R's issues. That's why I commend the old timers in this group like Q, Spec and others who are principled and consistent on issues (immigration here). And just because people flip from D to R does NOT necessarily mean they are anti-immigrant. It just means some other issue has taken up no 1 priority in their life since they do not have to worry about immigration anymore. There are plenty of issues in the world and frankly to a third party, they are all more important than someone's immigration status. But to most people in this forum immigration is probably one of the top priorities. Does that make us bad people? I don't think so.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Your argument might have merit when it comes to EB2 as most of the cases are prejudicated. As far as EB3 is concerned, People from May, 2010 just applied for 485 this month. So it does not really matter if the FAD moves past May 2010, No one is getting greened in a month of applying 485. Not throwing in the towel yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moveon
2009 might have little over 4000 applicants remaining.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
2010 has little over 22,500 approved 140’s from India. If if you take the most optimistic count the total numbers for 2010 from India is not going to be less than 30,000.
Under one month movement for Eb2 and 1 and half month movement for Eb3 is way below the par rate for 2021. We got 10 more months to see if things speed up by 2nd quarter.
Most likely the Filing Dates moved because uscis need money to survive plus they have planned fee increase for adjustment applications to go in effect from Oct 2 which got striked by a court on Sep 30th. So to me this was simply an exercise to mop up money. The way FADs didnt move as per the Spillover from FB is an indication that they still prefer to waste visas than issue them to backlogged countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
So far, I didn't see any exceptions to general practice this year. Hope things change in the second quarter for everybody's benefit. Until then, I would like to stick with the most conservative scenario and not be disappointed afterwards. Some of this optimism/pessimism also springs from the fact that people on this forum who filed their I-485 recently are in a different state of mind (happy, so optimistic) than other people like us who have filed our I-485 ten years ago (sad, so pessimistic)!Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
Putting things in context here -Quote:
Originally Posted by delguy
Sept 2019 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 01 JUN 2009
Sept 2020 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 08 JUL 2009
Oct 2020 Visa Bulleting EB2 FAD - 01 SEP 2009
Nov 2020 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 22 SEP 2009
Maybe you are right but the stats so far are encouraging.
Just to be clear, I don't paint people as good or bad people based which political party they belong to. Both parties have some outstanding leaders.I was simply countering your point by saying that dems may not have much to loose if they choose to benefit more on FB side than EB side, as EB people tend to change the political affiliation based on GC situation (this is just my observation and may not be general phenomenon. Neither I am suggesting it's good or bad. It's just a personal choice people make). And I certainly don't think either party is anti-immigration.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
I guess you don't have to be off payroll as you already applied for EAD extension and after you receive the receipt it can be considered and can continue working.Quote:
Originally Posted by ak7419
Vedu - I missed the boat in 2012 as my PD is late 2010 (Sep), and I am still pessimistic that anything will materialize in the next one year. Ideally USICS could have left the FADs in Dec 2011 or 2012 to get any idea of the filings for both EB2I and EB3I.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
It is ridiculous playing around by moving dates to 2015 without the ability of moving the FADs sufficiently last year. They could not plan and move to Apr'2010 for EB2I and EB3I where most of the applications have been lying in Q for 10 years, so expecting FAD to clear 2011 and get into 2012 this year is plain fantasy.
Well this is an interesting read from Sheela Murthy and other senior attorneys of her law firm.
We can sit here analyze the heck out of VB. Surely things are happening that are beyond our control. An indication might be seen in recent interview of S.Miller in NBC for his plans for the 2nd term of his president.Quote:
Why was there so little movement in the November visa bulletin? Is there any chance that the dates will move more in the coming months?
Answer
We are not sure why there was not more movement in the November 2020 Visa Bulletin. Our best guess is that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has been receiving a flood of I-485 filings over the past several weeks, and the U.S. Department of State (DOS) – which is in charge of the visa bulletin – is waiting for more data before determining how far to move the cutoff dates. Our hope is that, within the coming months (and perhaps as soon as in next month’s visa bulletin,) the USCIS and the DOS will be able to take stock of the remaining immigrant visa numbers for this fiscal year, and then continue to advance the cutoff dates. In the meantime, we are hoping to hear input from Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the DOS, as to what we should expect from the coming visa bulletins. (29.Oct.2020)
Congratulations to all who are current in the Nov 2020 VB. Could you please post your updates regarding your case in this google spreadsheet. This will help monitor progress, and answer any questions.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
I am curious on why there is a trend of creating google spread-sheets when there is already a trackitt tracker for I-485 applications here:Quote:
Originally Posted by rabp77
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigra...ackers/i485-eb
I got to know yesterday that my company will be acquired in 2 weeks by another company. My pd is June, 2010 eb2 and we sent the 485 package on Oct 20th. I am still waiting for the receipts and hope to get them before the acquisition. Is my 485 in pending status even though I did not receive the receipts?
If the job responsibilities and location remains the same, do we need to amend 140?
What if the company name changes?
I will be reaching out to our existing company attorney to understand my next steps.
Thanks in Advance!
Hello gurus,
I have been a lurker on this forum since 2012 when my PD became current for the 1st time. PD is 12/10/2009. Great information here and always love to read the analysis. I was hoping the dates would move closer to my PD in Nov bulletin but unfortunately that has not happened. Still hoping to be current in couple of months. I have a question regarding 485 J. I have not received any RFE since I applied for 485 in feb 2012. I have changed jobs in the last 8 years, applied AC21, etc. Recently I was promoted and the immigration lawyer said that new position is not more than 20% change in duties, so he doesn’t see an issue.
In the past when I have asked the lawyers to apply for 485J, they have asked me to wait for RFE. Given that I am so close to being current and if 485J takes a couple of months to approve, do you all suggest that I insist that the lawyers apply for 485J?