Originally Posted by
Spectator
I've been looking at these a bit further to try to understand what it might mean for next year.
First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.
We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010
The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.
This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.
Taking the figures at face value and assuming the same conversion ratios as 2010, 17,676 prorated receipts in 2011 should have turned into 14,380 I-140 approvals, which would be around 35k I-485 approvals. In fact, because denial rates are slightly lower in 2011, the number would be slightly higher than that.
If we assume that the FY2011 figure will actually become 26k I-485 approvals, then that is c. 25% less than expected (about 3 months worth).
If we assume that everything continues at the present rate in 2012, then we might expect at least 35k EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012. The substantially lower denial rate on EB1C, if continued, would bring the figure over the 40k allocation.
This might cause some concern for spillover numbers in FY2012, since it suggests that EB1 will not contribute very much next year, when it has been the major contributor this year.
Bear in mind that the above makes quite a few assumptions and is a rather rough calculation.
This is not something we didn't know already, but I wanted to start the process of quantifying it and prompting discussion.